Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. Most of these items are from JWR’s “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective. Today, the market fallout from the recent Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes.
Precious Metals:
Price pressure on gold, silver amid rising U.S. bond yields.
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Chinese Gold Imports Hit Highest Level Since 2018.
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Reader S.O. wrote to ask:
“Just a quick question about precious metal depositories. I have been researching some of these organizations and they appear to be a little bit safer than a bank, in that I would be the sole owner of whatever I put in there, versus the bank which actually co-owns what I have in their system. However, I am having a hard time overcoming my ‘trust no one’ mantra.”
JWR’s Reply:
“You’re mantra is a good and safe one. I do not trust most warehousing-type precious metals businesses. When they go belly-up or when they get raided by the IRS, invariably somebody comes up short.
Economy & Finance:
Fed’s James Bullard pushes for faster rate hikes, sees ‘good shot’ at beating inflation. JWR’s Comments: No, beating inflation would require raising interest rates to somewhere north of 12% for more than a year. I really doubt that the Fed will have the intestinal fortitude to do so. They will pivot back to lower rates long before that — leaving the American economy in stagflation.
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Fed minutes, Stellantis payout, Nvidia earnings – what’s moving markets.
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The “stag” part of stagflation is developing: Economy grew at slower 2.7% pace at end of 2022, GDP shows, as consumers trimmed spending.
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Commodities:
Wheat Outlook: February 2023.
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CNN Business reports: Eggs are 70% more expensive than they were a year ago.
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The age of scarcity is here. Invest in companies that make what people need — not what they want.
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Natural Gas Futures, Cash Prices Rise Ahead of Brief Winter Storm.
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Lucid sees disappointing 2023 EV production as orders drop amid weakening demand. As demand drops, price competition will increase. In the long term, lower-cost Asian-produced electric cars will predominate. The demand for battery metals will probably be less than what has been recently forecast.
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2023 Idaho hay and forage outlook.
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Some news about Cheniere Energy, from OilPrice News: U.S. LNG Giant Sees Revenues More Than Double In 2022.
Inflation Watch:
CBS: Prices are falling, but not for food. Groceries remain a “pain point.”
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Fed minutes show members resolved to keep fighting inflation with rate hikes.
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Travel Inflation Report: February 2023. The article’s opening lines:
“Pretty much every aspect of travel is more expensive now than what it was this same time last year. According to NerdWallet’s Travel Price Index, the overall cost of travel is up 9% over the past year — outpacing the overall 6.4% rate of inflation (including non-travel prices) across the United States.“
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High food inflation to persist in 2023.
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Kelley Blue Book: When Will New Car Prices Drop?
Forex & Cryptos:
US Dollar Slides After FOMC Boost as Hikes Get Baked in. Is There a New Trend for USD?
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Over at Currency Thoughts: Reacting to FOMC Minutes and Awaiting More U.S. Data Reports.
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Cashless society? Not in Switzerland where people will vote on keeping banknotes and coins forever.
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Linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: UK To Launch Digital Pound Central Bank Digital Currency.
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Jamesson Lopp: Satoshi Roundtable IX Recap.
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Bitcoin Dips Below $24,000 Again As DXY Hits 7-Week High.
Tangibles Investing:
US Existing Home Sales Unexpectedly Decline In January, Record 37% YoY Collapse.
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Just as I expected, the “days on market” shows a large uptick: Housing Inventory: Median Days on Market in the United States.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. Thanks!