Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at the unfolding San Francisco Real Estate Collapse. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)

Precious Metals:

U.S. Mint Silver Eagle Sales Forecasted To Triple This Quarter

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Hub Moolman: Gold and Crypto: Is This How Charts Look Before A Monetary Collapse?

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Metals Equal Discipline: The Bull Case For Gold And Silver (Au & Ag)

Economy & Finance:

At Zero Hedge: Food Shortages Hit China: There Is “Not…Enough Fresh Food To Go Around”

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And by way of reader H.L., another from Tyler: The Fed is Going to Create the Mother Of All Bubbles

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At Wolf Street: Synchrony Financial Disclosed Radical Work-from-Home Plan, Layoffs, and “Office Footprint” Reduction

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And here is another posted by Wold Richter: Sorting through the Data Chaos in Unemployment Claims: Week 31 of U.S. Labor Market Collapse

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AmEx issues dismal outlook on business travel spending as profit slumps

Commodities:

Trends that pushed lumber prices will continue, Canfor CEO says

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OilPrice News reports: ISIS Calls For Attacks On Saudi Oil Industry

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Goldman is calling a bull market for commodities in 2021 on dollar moves and inflation risk

Equities:

‘Smart money’ just reversed bets against tech stocks in a huge way

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Jim Cramer’s Stock to Buy if Joe Biden Wins the Presidency

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Forex & Cryptos:

GBP: A “thin” Brexit agreement will likely be struck by early November – Goldman Sachs

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Euro Forecast: ECB Meeting to Determine Next Major Move in EUR/USD

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In India: Forex reserves touch life time high of $555.12 bln

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Bloomberg Intelligence Strategist Hints At Bitcoin Bull Run In 2021

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How US authorities are using old AML tools to crack down on crypto

Tangibles Investing:

Some news on San Francisco real estate to file under I Told You So: Housing Market Goes Nuts, Everyone Sees it, But it Can’t Last. Here is a quote:

“There is a shortage until suddenly there is a glut. This always surprises people.

This is happening in San Francisco — and something similar is happening in Manhattan and some other cities. The City was long described by its “housing shortage” that drove up prices and rents though there has been plenty of housing, but all high-priced, and people couldn’t afford it. And suddenly that “housing shortage” has turned into a glut. The city is flooded with a historic amount of inventory, including a record-breaking number of condos for sale, and there is a large offering of vacant apartments, and rents have plunged, with one-bedroom rents down 19% in five months.

The inventory of homes for sale spiked from “shortage” to “glut” in a matter of months. As of the week ended October 11, there were a record 2,476 homes listed for sale, up by 72% from the same week last year, with condos accounting for the lion’s share.”

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Has San Francisco real estate lost it?

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Our own Mike Williamson spotted this in a gun forum: Vendors charging way too much for Primers.

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!




33 Comments

  1. Primers cost- (and pretty much everything else related)
    Supply and demand.
    And yes as pointed out by others here on comments before these smaller shops are having to pay more themselves to replace what they’ve sold so …
    It’s tight and it’s bad and liable to get worse depending on outcome shortly on Tuesday.
    Do you really need another 10K to go with your 50K of primers right now at this very moment?
    Hold tight, don’t tear each other apart, don’t hold grudges and see how things go. Maintain Respect

  2. “U.S. Mint Silver Eagle Sales Forecasted To Triple This Quarter”

    The linked article speculates about the election and the silver market.

    It fails to mention that the American Silver Eagle (and Gold Eagle) coins will have a new design next year.

    While I am not aware of any formal surveys, my non-scientific sampling of YouTube channels dedicated to silver stacking indicates that the new design is not being well received. So a driving factor may simply be collectors and stackers trying to obtain coins with the current design – which has not changed since its introduction in 1986 – before the change in 2021.

    1. I figured they were getting rid of the eagle before the SJW’s start whining about “species appropriation.”

      Here’s a link with the other 39 contenders, half of which IMO are superior to the one they chose. The new one will have an eagle carrying an oak branch in its claws instead of an olive branch?? Must mean the government has gone nuts and is acting squirrelly or maybe they’re barking up the wrong tree? I wish they’d just pack their trunks and leaf us all alone.

      https://www.usmint.gov/news/ccac-meetings/american-eagle-proof-and-bullion-silver-coin-reverse

    1. You won’t see ammo on the shelves for a while. Online orders are your best bet. Anything that hits the stores is being hoarded by the employees at employee discounts. They then resale it online for around double.

        1. So let’s say you work at Walmart/academy/dicks sporting goods and you do get the first run of ammo.
          You then take it home throw it online and sell it.
          Exactly how is the company going to know?
          They don’t.
          They don’t care until it becomes a problem.
          It’s like many other un-enforceable rules and laws.

  3. New York City apartments are overpriced by 300%. A 19% price drop means nothing.
    This is due to a combination of landlord greed and an effort to avoid possible future rent control and/or rent stabilization.

    1. It isn’t landlord greed. If you were a landlord paying mortgage and taxes for a house at about $1800 a month and the going rate for the rental was $2200 a month would you rent it at $1600? Landlords don’t set the market for rent. And it would be foolish to rent below the market. Rent rates are set by external factors out of the control of the landlord.

      1. I kinda suspect the local real estate industry might have some influence with the local politicians who control the supply of housing via zoning, development regulations, etc.

        Unless we are to conclude that the real estate guys dump so much money into local politics in order to encourage free market competition — instead of an extremely amiable oligarchy.

  4. Changing the design of minted coins and PM coins is a waste of taxpayer money. The mints do this to create collector demand much like the post office prints stamps that will never see circulation, and require no expenditure for delivery services. Just part of their revenue stream. I give you the billions of Susan B, Anthony dollar coins languishing in federal vaults costing money to store. They were not well received by the public and now are just another financial burden on the tax payer. Reminds me of the question, ” How much would actual good government cost us?”

    1. Hey Joe, agreed. We’re the only civilized country that still has a dollar bill. Everyone has moved to coins. What absolutely makes no sense is having both. What a huge waste. If they had any economical sense they’d get rid of the paper ones, which don’t last very long, and just have the dollar coins, gold colored so they aren’t confused with quarters like the Susan B. Anthony was. And how about the $2 bill? That’s just stupid on steroids and a waste of good paper.

  5. 1) Rents/values may have dropped in downtown San Francisco but I doubt if they have fallen in the Silicon Valley suburbs.

    I know of a house in Sunnyvale that was valued at $488,000 in 2012 that is at $1.5 million today — up from $1.3 million a few months ago. It was renting for $3100 last year , current rent now is $3900.

    Take a look at homes in the San Fran suburbs with Zillow.com and look at their past price histories.

    2) Before people celebrate a New York City /San Fran exodus, they might realize that the Internet which allows the dispersal of work also enables the dispersal of the Democrat urban disease. How is that Republican pro-gun Senate majority looking?

    1. Right on Don on both points. I remember reading a story from nigh on 20 years ago I guess. An couple had purchased a house in silicon valley back in the sixties and then put it on the market nearly 40 years later and got like $1.2 million for it.

      1. Ditto on good points Don. Real estate in my county in upstate NY have gone crazy. And my once solid red county (yes, there are red counties in NY!) is turning purple with all the citots coming up this way.

        Bonus points to BWL for using the phrase “nigh on..” lol

        1. Montana seems to be filing up with many as well. I sure hope Montana doesn’t become like Colorado. The Gov already a Democrat. I just read a long article on many buying homes/ranches site unseen for cash and prices going through the roof.

          1. Anon,,,,,,,, I have number of property’s in Montana and Idaho. Mostly old ranch land all in trust , I get contacts almost daily wanting to buy ,renters telling me of folks just showing up wanting to talk to the owner ,(me) I now have a special phone number just for them to call ,, I know I can answer with salty language and do ,,,’are you the dumb SOB that trespassed and bothered my renters ? ‘
            Starts things off on a good foot don’t you think,,,,,now I looked in to things and the trail leads back to B G foundation on some of the noise ,,,we are talking many thousand of acres,
            Back in the day of cattle ranches ,real ranches , you didn’t count if you had less than 25k acres,
            I know most folks to day have a hard time comprehending that , but it is so , we have a saying: “You’re only rich once the day you sell ,
            The duded up ‘rancher ‘ is most likely in debt past his eyeballs , The real rancher not in debt has patches on his shirt ,if he has a note its from his kid’s school
            Tea or coffee in the kitchen ,cookies too

        2. Hey spotlight, I’m in upstate NY also. Same thing with real estate here. A once languishing market now very hot in spite of the fact that one of our major companies(think guns) went bankrupt and laying off many people.

    2. House in Sunnyvale where I raised my children, but didn’t own. Small residential cookie cutter home. It was purchased by owners for $35,000, now worth $2.1M in a 60 year stretch. Anyone who is willing to pay that needs their head examined. I know some folks who are purchasing homes right now in the CA ‘burbs at height of market. It makes me sad. Not everyone works for Google or Apple. Another reason leaving CA is a good idea. Just get out of the rat race and save your sanity.

  6. At this point I can’t waste time thinking about the situation in San Francisco or any other big city. We as individuals can do nothing to correct this madness. Our plan is to top off our preps as much as possible and hunker in place.

  7. I saw the Mint raised their prices on Silver Proofs and coins 2 weeks ago. The uncirculated 5 oz coins at the Mint went from 178 to 229 each. The silver proof went from 62 to over 100. So big price increases all around from the US Mint

  8. Also, on an American Express Statement I saw that beginning Jan 2021, all precious metal purchases will be processed as a cash advance. So I guess the cash advance fee plus no grace period for the charge.

  9. Local gun store was selling 5.56 and 7.62×39 big name brass ammo for $25/20 rounds and 50 cents each for steel case. Went to a gun show over the weekend (several hours away) and things weren’t as bad as I expected. 500 round boxes of .22lr was $50 average, saw a few 5.45 steel case for $8/box, most newer guns were reasonable. Several mini-14s under $1000 (looked almost new), magazines prices varied widely. Lots of AR custom builders with lots of inventory, not much AK and SKS inventory.

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