Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at commodities price forecasts for 2021. (See the Commodities section.)
Economy & Finance:
At Zero Hedge: American Airlines Warns Admin: Keep Bailing Us Out Or At Least 19,000 More Jobs Are Gone
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Reader Joe B. sent this telling news, also at Zero Hedge: Pelosi Calls Republicans ‘Domestic Enemies Of The State’. Joe’s comment:
“Isn’t it interesting that Nancy Pelosi refers to our country as “THE STATE” was this a slip of the tongue or how she views the government? If it sounds familiar that is because that is how communist, socialist, and [other statist] dictators always refer to their government because they do not believe that the people are the government. They believe their power comes from the “STATE” not the people.
For those of you that were just getting comfortable with being called a deplorable, you now have to bow down to being called a Domestic Enemy of the State.
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Commodities:
In some web wandering, I found this from Fitch Solutions: Monthly Commodities Strategy: Lacklustre Prices For Now, More Positive Outlook In 2021. Note: Most of this article is behind a paywall. Here is snippet from the opening paragraph:
“We are neutral on commodities in the coming months, with the exception of gold and iron ore, for which still-supportive fundamentals will keep prices in an uptrend for now. We believe oil prices will continue to range-trade in the coming months, while base metals are likely to pause and could pull back slightly following their impressive recovery to pre-Covid levels.
Looking at 2021, we are mostly positive on commodity prices, in particular towards energy (oil and natural gas) and towards softs. Oil demand will recover more strongly and more homogeneously around the world next year…”
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OilPrice News reports: Two Major Shale Drillers Plan Layoffs
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Here’s how grain prices could strengthen in 2021
Forex & Cryptos:
Singapore currency to stay strong until 2021 on broad USD weakness
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In case you missed this when it was posted at Money & Markets, back in June: A 35% Dollar Crash Is Coming. Watch These Overseas Warning Signs
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Over at Forbes: Bitcoin Could Hit All-Time High Levels By 2021, Trader Says
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Top 10 Best Cryptocurrency Investments of 2020-2021
Real Estate:
Video: The Collapse of American Cities Has Started. And Yours Is Next
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NAR: Pandemic Contributes to Shifts in Real Estate Market
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Haunting Photos of San Francisco’s Desolate Financial District During Morning “Rush Hour”: Visual Effects of Work-from-Home. Here is an excerpt:
“I started taking photos at Columbus Street where it ends at Montgomery Street, and then turned south into Montgomery Street and walked through the Financial District to the Montgomery Station at Market Street. Then I zigzagged back through the Financial District.
What you will see are streets and sidewalks and entrances into office towers that were eerily deserted during what used to be “rush hour,” with just a sprinkling of pedestrians, a few cars, the occasional skateboarder, some guys working on construction projects, and curiosities where you might be tempted to think, ‘only in San Francisco.’”
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Mortgage Delinquencies Soar To Decade High
Tangibles Investing:
I recently got an e-mail sales announcement from a company that mainly specializes in AR parts. They were crowing about having Anderson Arms stripped AR-15 lowers available to dealers for “only $54.95 each” Hrrumph! Eight months ago, a relative of mine picked up several “blem” Anderson lowers for $19.95 each. And at that same time, the going price for unblemished ones was $29.95. But the new floor for even the once-maligned Anderson Poverty Pony AR lowers seems to be around $70 to $80, each, retail. My, how the firearms world has changed in just a few months. Thank goodness for foresight, and emphasizing tangibles.
And by the way, the prices of complete AR upper receiver/barrel assemblies have also risen, but not quite so dramatically. Again, those who had “stacked them deep” when they were inexpensive are now sitting pretty. But it is not too late to buy a few, since the top of the market will probably not be until November. The selection of complete uppers Palmetto State Armory (“PSA” — one of our affiliate advertisers) is getting thin, in part because they are not gouging — unlike many other AR parts vendors.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!
Thanks to Survival Blog I found out about Palmetto’s really good AR-15 uppers and lowers for $360 earlier. They came without mags and sights. Building the weapon consisted of putting two pins in and installing a Magpul popup sight.
I was able to buy them cheap and stack them deep and it makes me feel good.
My neighbor was a Navy Seal and I did two in-country tours on river patrol boats in Vietnam. We were trained in explosives, hand to hand, knife fighting, bayonet fighting, grenades, snap shooting, M-16, M-14, M-60, M-79, 50 cal, Mark 18 Honeywell, shotguns, pistols, 60 and 81 mm mortars. Our instructors were Seals and they were great but demanding.
Anti-fa coming down our street with Molotov Cocktails will not like it. They already did not like coming to Coeur d’Alene.
Alice Arrambarri was in the paper complaining about the boys with all the weaponary intimidating her and marching down the street. She is the local group leader for Mothers Against Sensless Gun Violence which is a subsidary of the Bloomberg funded Mayors Against Guns. Her higher headquarters came out and campaigned for removing guns from the police. She is a shill and a liar.
There is a place called Eagle Peak in ATHOL, IDAHO where you can purchase dirt cheap all manner of water containers and metal barrels should anyone ever have a need for a good metal container for whatever reason. They have acres and acres of these items.
Robert Hunt, My first reaction to reading your post was, I wanted to bake you your favorite pie! Dang. You’ve got skills. So happy you are on our side!
(Please be aware of children you do not know, who may be sent to do the work of the evil one.)
About this, “Alice.” Good grief…
Mothers For Violence Against Evil Doers gets my vote.
Thank you for the info on containers should I need some.
May the Lord bless and protect you and your loved ones, Krissy
For the past 2-3 years, every time I would visit my local FFL, I would purchase a stripped Aero Precision Gen2 AR lower. I would tell anyone who listened that they should buy all they can now while supply is plentiful and prices are stable! My FFL would sell them to me for $75 plus tax and I have a comfortable stack of them in my safe. There are now people offering me $150-$200 for those lowers and leading up to November I expect the offers will go higher…
From Joe B’s thoughts on the Zero Hedge Article referenced above: “For those of you that were just getting comfortable with being called a deplorable, you now have to bow down to being called a Domestic Enemy of the State.”
Watch what they do, and listen carefully to what they say. The Marxist Communist Left is hiding very little about their intentions for this country and all the people. Republicans as Enemies of the State? This is an outrageous statement that exposes everyone to potential acts of violence committed by those whose rage is being fueled by irresponsible remarks like these.
None of this comes as a surprise to those of us who are students of history. Unfortunately, there are too many who don’t really know the history of Totalitarianism. It’s time for those of us who do know to speak up. It’s time for an accelerated course that brings everyone up to speed — so that we do not risk a take over at the time of the coming election.
To any reader who believes that their vote does not matter, or that there is no hope. Please reconsider. There is always hope, and your vote does count. It does matter.
To any reader who believes collapse is an opportunity for reset, I suggest that you really do not know what you are asking for — and that the outcome will not be the liberty based society you say you’re hoping will arise from the ashes. Collapse may be inevitable, but it should not be prompted. We do yet have the opportunity to rebuild, and we have a President working in earnest to accomplish that rebuilding. He and we have come a long way in the last four years despite the tantrums of the Left. We have a long way yet to travel, but we are on the road.
Remain steady. Be safe. Stay well everyone!
We tried to locate JWR’s newest title at Costco online, but could not locate it for purchase (may be an in-store buying option only). We’ll have to wait until October, and while we are excited to read it, we will wait this out with great anticipation!
Hi, TofA, I tried searching online at Costco too: no luck.
Laugh for the day:
Many, many years ago, I shared with my then husband, about a wonderful godly woman I heard encouraging women on the Christian radio station. When he inquired who she was, I said her name was Nancy Pelosi. He said, “No, it wasn’t her.”
I got her name mixed up with Nancy Lee DeMoss…
Have a great week, Krissy
I picked up some Anderson Arms stripped AR-15 lowers at a local gun store in the Tulsa area a couple of weeks ago for $49.95 each. The store had an order of 50 arrive on Friday and were almost out by 3pm Saturday. I had been picking up the Palmetto stripped lowers at a different Tulsa store for $44.95, but they have been out of stock on those as well as all of their [MagPul] PMAGs for the last couple of months.
I keep coming on here and reading about the stock market, and investment opportunities. How the stock market is at an all time high, so things must be okay, or at least getting better and back to normal. And I have to think that the stock market is no longer real. It’s no longer connected to the economy, or what is really happening in the country. Just throwing out a few facts that I have stumbled over:
Over the last 23 weeks, more than 58 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits. Last time I checked the population is only 300 million, and that’s counting kids and retirees.
Overall, 27 percent of all Americans did not make their rent or mortgage payment last month.
31 percent of U.S. workers that were brought back to work after being laid off during the early stages of this pandemic have been laid off a second time, and another 26 percent have been told that layoffs may be coming soon.
According to the San Francisco Chamber of Commerce, more than half of all the storefronts in the entire city of San Francisco are no longer in business.
In New York, 83 percent of all restaurants in the city were unable to pay their full rent last month.
In 2020, the state of Louisiana has lost twice as many jobs as it did after Hurricane Katrina, and that was before Hurricane Laura
Americans now owe more than 21 billion dollars in unpaid rent.
U.S. bankruptcies are already at their highest level in 10 years and they are expected to surge dramatically as we approach the end of this calendar year.
Just these eight facts tell me that things are not looking better for the “Average Joe” out there. I think it was an article on here last week that talked about the fact that Apple and a couple tech stocks were basically responsible for the stock market going up – the DOW is being calculated on a very narrow basis.
The unrest is growing, and riots are becoming more violent, and there’s still 2 months until the election. The Democrats are accusing The President of creating the violence while they encourage it, and refuse to condemn the lawlessness. I guess he’s responsible for the violence because he won’t acquiesce to all their demands.
And this is all just what’s happening on a national level. It’s not even looking at the international picture. This is even wilder and more surreal than anything that most authors could come up with in their wildest imaginations. AND IT’S JUST THE BEGINNING!
Keep your powder dry, and your Bible close.
I half agree with you.
The half I agree with relates to small business. They are being hammered.
The half I only partially agree with is unemployment and mortgages.
Where I live there are jobs everywhere. Maybe that is not true everywhere else but everywhere I go I see help wanted signs. I know people who could be working who are not because of the unemployment supplement. Now that the supplement is gone, I suspect many will go back to work. But I have also know many in the past who looked at regular unemployment as vacation time. In 2008 the extended unemployment benefits retarded the recovery IMO.
Regarding mortgages, there was a federal moratorium on foreclosures and evictions that recently ended and in many states there are local mandates which continue. Some people are taking full advantage of this.
Not to say some people are not suffering. They definitely are. But there are at least an equal number of people who are scamming the system and harming everyone else. Personally I think this is a feature of this situation not a bug. The Democrats are counting on and using these people for their purposes one of which is to punish small business another of which is to generally hold the economy back.
I believe there is usually something positive in every situation though. The situation opened up jobs for people who really want to work, who might have been blocked for some reason otherwise. Now they are able to take the jobs others are currently refusing and I suspect employers will reward them in the future for this. The cream is rising to the top IMO.
The Lone Canadian, Liked your comments and info. Thank you, Krissy
About: The Collapse of American Cities Has Started. And Yours Is Next. =
Ballotpedia: = “Analysis of spending in America’s largest cities” ~ is an article discussing how much money cities spend for each citizen. [The money spent by the City is a dollar total separate from the money spent by the County, State or Federal Government. Though surely, the Cities receive grants from the other government entities.]
Here’s information from Ballotpedia:
“As of April 2015, the country’s 100 largest cities by population spent an average of $2,605 per citizen in the most recent fiscal year for which reports were available.”
“Colorado Springs spends the least per citizen of the largest 100 cities at $566. Washington, D.C., spends ~>$15,624 per citizen, nearly $6,000 more than the next highest city. That means, on average, Washington, D.C., spends 27.6 times more per citizen than Colorado Springs.”
“Six cities—San Francisco, Seattle, Scottsdale, New York City, Long Beach and Austin—spent more per citizen on average than the states in which they are located.”
[Chart 2 in the article lists big spending cities. San Francisco is a ‘sort of’ City-County combined government, as the SF City is the size of the County.]
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The money spent by a City is obtained from taxes and fees. When businesses pay taxes and fees, the businesses have to pass the costs along to their customers. (or else they go out of business)
Most working people simply can NOT afford to live in a lot of cities, because of the expenses. [The exception are the people typically NOT working in private business. These people are receiving either a big government salary, or welfare with other free stuff. (There are some people receiving a very big salary in private business, that choose to live in a city).]
From the Internet: The average (monthly) Social Security check for a retired ~worker is $1,512.63.
***********************************
The flight from the cities is caused by Crime, public disorder, congestion, poor schools, and just the huge expense of living in a city. [A person working is paying for all the ‘free stuff’ given to other people, and government employee big salaries.]
There are cost of living articles about various places in the USA. [The redoubt region is an option for people voting with their feet.]
The expenses for an area is a computation for housing and other expenditures. …. Taxes and fees for Federal, State, County and City governments is part of the equation.
[At my old house, I had a ‘sewer improvement fee’ assessed for my street. The people living on the street behind me, did NOT pay the fee. … = What’s the point? = Watch for the ‘extra’ taxes and fees when buying property.]
It’s very sad that people on either side are unable even to simply communicate or have any civilized discourse.
Growing up in the 80s in the Central San Joaquin valley I remember neighbors and family friends being able to be Democrats or Republicans and never having that be an issue.
What we need to strive for and pray for is a path for peace and reconciliation.
With the shooting of the Patriot Prayer member in Portland as well as the situation with the young man defending himself in Kenosha this looks just about impossible.
Let’s strive to understand each other and be intellectually honest in our conversations and social media posts.
We have to try and avoid Civil War, as well prepared as people are there are still casualties on both sides in War and nobody wants to bury family members, friends and loved ones.
I recommend a book to read if you have not read it. It is called “The Fourth Turning”.
I believe it describes what is happening right now and it was written in 1997 by two historians.
It is 400+ pages, but it basically states that about every 80 years there is a major Crisis period with social and financial disruption and frequently war and bloodshed. Those things happen all the time but the difference is that basically there is a winner take all battle during a Crisis period during which compromise is no longer attainable and the social norms for the next 80 years are established. There are winners and there are losers.
There is a LOT more to it including a description of three other periods and four generations and their characteristics and interactions. I find it interesting in viewing the outside world but also interesting in understanding myself and past family events and interactions.
The last Crisis period was the Depression and WW2. I believe our current Crisis period began in the early 2000’s and is approaching climax. No one (except God) knows how it will end, but IMO it is going to end within a few years and then calm down into a “New Normal”. I hate that term but I believe it is true and it does not necessarily have to be the “New Normal” of the left.
Hello Bob,
I understand the nature of your comment but I don’t think you grasp the situation.
Our country is beyond the good old Republican vs Democrat civil disagreements concerning the day to day function of the government.
We are currently dealing with radicals that want to replace our republic with communism. (I’ve stated the case many times on the SBlog).
The communists have infiltrated our schools from K to College, our local governments, our federal government including all three branches and the intelligence agencies. They were ready to ramp up their agenda following the 2016 election. Here came Trump and they are angry. Angry at the people who elected Trump.
The left’s impatience for the2020/2024 elections, combined with the damage Trump can currently inflict upon them, has caused their outrage. The folks pushing this agenda from the top are getting old and they surely wanted to succeed before meeting their maker.
Their current actions are a mistake. The plans ere to eliminate gun ownership before violence took root. A big misstep if our current citizenry decide to change the course of history.
Back in the day when I used to work with explosives a little, I always got that sinking feeling in my gut right before lighting a fuse or cranking the switch over on a detonator.
I’m getting that feeling more and more now. I’m nowhere near any explosives. But it feels like something’s getting ready to blow.
benjammin, I believe God is the author of your ominous feelings. Thank you for sharing, so that those who have ears to hear can take heed. May the God who knows and loves you keep you safe. Krissy
Benjammin… We are experiencing the same. It’s weighty.
A couple-three points:
a)
New York city, frisco
There isn’t enough money in the known universe to entice me for a visit.
Just writing the place names makes me feel like I need a shower.
b)
“…enemies of the State…”
OK, goofballs.
Sure.
Pelosi et al are delusional.
For a once-in-a-lifetime explanation of the State and the enemies of the State, I encourage folks to visit Toul Sleng Museum, Phnom Penh, Cambodia.
Also known a Toul Sleng Genocide Museum, at least 20,000 enemies of the State were eliminated there in three years… and this was just one of hundreds of re-educations ‘centers’ operated by the State.
The Cambodian phrase ‘toul sleng’ translates into ‘strychinene tree’.
c)
Until about four years ago, the shopping maul in Springfield Oregon was a vibrant community hub (I use the term ‘vibrant’ in its traditional definition of ‘full of life, a place folks want to go’, not the current ‘ “vibrant” ‘ of ‘likely to get stabbed’).
Then, in the mid-20teens, the distant owners decided to change it from an indoor shopping maul to the equivalent of a Quickie Mart© bordered by tattoo parlors and a liquor store; they dumped the functioning indoor design, and turned it into a parking-lot with a few strip-maul businesses as an after-thought.
Oregon gets snow.
Oregon has months of drenching rain.
Oregon has a week of blistering temperatures.
Eliminating the indoor part of the shopping maul is a particularly bad idea.
And, apparently, >sixty-percent of the former businesses agree… as evidenced by the ‘for rent’ signs.
And d)
California.
Were the bumblebrats expecting a different outcome?
I don’t see it.
The cities of California are exactly as the planners designed it to be.
I’ll say it again — California is not frisco, Sacramento, Hollywood.
Trevor Loudon’s 2020 List of 65 Communists in Congress…
https://www.trevorloudon.com/2020/08/trevor-loudons-2020-list-of-65-communists-socialists-and-security-risks-in-congress/
TofA, I have purchased one of his books, but, alas, have not read it yet. Thank you for posting the link. I was surprised Texas had four. Blessings, Krissy
A heads up,,,,,,we have in our family group a large amount of land in wa. Id. Mt. As of late we are being bombarded with offers to buy ,, by people with money that are not who we would want to sell to ,,we have no reason to sell ,i’ve been buying and selling for 55years and have never seen anything like this before , and were not talking a couple of acres ,,
Tea and chocolate
Oldhomesteader, Thanking the Lord that you do not have to sell, let alone to those with opposite beliefs of yours. Thank you for sharing your wisdom, advice and another heads up. May the Lord bless you for continually helping of others. Blessings on your health, to DW, and those you love, Krissy
Krissy,,,thankyou ,,,,, i’m just on the way out the door to bale hay ,,this is a strange year ,never baled hay this late in the year before ,, I would never sell land to someone that has no love for the land ,, cousins in the tribe have a saying ‘mother earth,father sky ‘
We are coming back from the virus , some things in our life have changed ,has been 4 1/2months ,the sky is blue,the grass is green , the air is fresh , the cow’s are fat , the water is sweet,life is good ,,,
Tea and chocolate
Assuming that your AR components and ammo stockpile are in order this might be a good time to pick up a little gold or silver.
While the prices are high compared to this time last year and availability is difficult both will
be unaffordable and impossible to find in the near future.
Central Banks around the world are buying and hoarding gold because they understand that
a global monetary reset is coming soon.
Our Federal Reserve is only printing more and more worthless paper because their stated
goal is to increase inflation.
It is said that there is a major disconnect between Wall St. and Main St. and we can add the
Fed to that disconnect.
Does anyone have accurate information on when the gold in Fort Knox was last inventoried?
SOG: some friends have been stymied by high ammo prices or ammo not on the shelves, and some of them have directed their money to buy extra mags, maintenance kits (springs/parts/etc) and even ammo cans. Really like your list as it is a good start for people of like minds!
Good afternoon everyone
I am thinking of ordering a couple of Byrna HD’s as another platform for defense. After all, I do live in crappy Illinois 🙂
Check it out & let me know what you think?!
Byrna.com
Have a Rockin great day
Looks like a gun. Someone could shoot you with a real gun and claim self-defense and LE may shoot first and ask questions later.
I have real guns too.
Rock on
Hello RKRGRL68!
This is an interesting idea… You might try working through some scenarios (thought experiments) to try to determine if this device would be a sufficient deterrent to be protective to you. If an attacker is only aggravated by the effects, the danger to you may be even greater. I am thinking of the situation in Portland. Still waiting for the facts to come out in detail, but it appears one of the parties may have used a spray of some form (appears as a mist in the videos), and the shooting quickly followed. All that said, the non-lethal aspect does have humanitarian appeal. None among us wants to cause harm to another unnecessarily if harm can be avoided. Just be careful that whatever you do, you don’t create the unintended consequence of even greater danger. Looking forward to your developing thoughts on this. It’s a challenging question you’re trying to answer. Hopefully others here will chime in with their thoughts about personal security.
Over the weekend I was trying to find new glass for my 1940s coleman lantern my grandpa passed down to me about 10 years ago. Not only have I found the glass I needed but I gave been buying camp fuel and duel fuel stoves and lanterns for $5-$10 each. Today alone I have found three lantern all listed for under $10, one was even brand new in box. I figure extra stoves and lanterns with a can of gas will my great barter or christmas gifts for my buddies who love camping.
IN PRAISE OF DUPLEXED AR-15 MAGAZINES
by Matt Bracken
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2020/08/in-praise-of-duplexed-ar-15-magazines/
They’re out of white gas again locally. I still have 3 cases (6 gal/case), but would like double that on hand. If needed, I’d run with the propane adapters for the stoves, and save the gas for the heater.
Was able to pick up another 4 Anderson lowers for $49.45, and S&W lower parts kits for each. Now I need some rifle length uppers. Made a nice score in a thrift store of 5 old style M16 bayonets with sheaths for $10 each. Anyone defending against rioters should have a bayonet on their weapon, as it makes a point to anyone that thinks they can grab the barrel. It can also be used to keep them at arms length. Do not allow anyone to touch your weapon during a riot! The boys at the gas station in Kenosha allowed some pushy women to do just that. They should have been pushed back, and/or buttstocked to the face for touching their weapons. Best deployed on [20″ barrel] rifle-length weapons. 16″ barrels do not mount correctly. It also gives you a knife to use.
Hey there Telesilla of Argos, SOG & everyone
Thank you for the comments. I do agree that this platform has some concerns (LEO mistaking these as a firearm, Costs are rather high, Ect)
I had first seen this platform on a clip of Hannitys show about a month or so back and it looked like an interesting item to investigate.
I may see if my local gun shop has any input or training.
I do see this as a possible form of protection for those that are late to the game and unable to procure a firearm and training.
Have a Rockin great day
I need a recommendation for long term butter (canned?), milk (low-fat) and cheese. I have seen the canned butter from Australia on Amazon. It has mixed reviews so I’m leery. I need to round out my food reserves.
Any help is much appreciated. Thank you!