Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at some conflicting predictions of deflation and inflation. (See the Economy & Finance section.)

Precious Metals:

Arkadiusz Sieroń: The Narrative About Gold Is Changing Again

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Over at Gold-Eagle: Precious Metals Ratio Charts

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Illegal gold flowing through Miami is a ‘direct threat’ to U.S. national security, Rubio says

Economy & Finance:

At Zero Hedge: “Lower For Ever”: One Bank Makes A Stunning Discovery – The Fed’s Rate Cuts Are Now Deflationary

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But wait a minute….at Wolf Street: Inflation Is Coming: All the Trends That Were Deflationary Are Slowly Going in Reverse. A quote:

“If you think deflation is a fact of life, you clearly haven’t paid attention to history. Governments around the world have experienced a unique decade where they ran deficits and printed money without “bad inflation” which upsets voters. They think this is a new normal with no consequences. It isn’t. They’re already panicking with the S&P a few ticks from all-time highs. Soon politicians will go into ludicrous mode with fiscal stimulus.

What will fiscal stimulus do to the equity market? I’m reminded of the 1970s—inflation is no friend to most stocks. What happens to trillions in negative yielding long-dated bonds if inflation ticks up? What happens to bond proxies like global large-cap equity indexes or real estate? What happens to risk-parity funds that are leveraged a few times over expecting bonds and equities to increase over time? What if both legs of the trade drop at the same time?

No one is ready for inflation, but I believe it’s coming. Maybe not today or next week, but there is a powder keg of monetary supply just waiting to be unleashed by governments who think that inflation can never happen again. At first, markets will cheer a bit of inflation—then they’ll panic. The markets often do whatever the fewest people are positioned for. Who’s positioned for inflation? That’s about as contrarian as buying Argentine sovereign debt.”

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Trump’s “idiotic” trade policies will “destroy us”, here’s how according to Doug Casey

Commodities:

Russian Gas Mega-Pipeline To China Goes Online As Putin & Xi Hail Closer Ties

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OilPrice News reports: Hedge Funds Are Quietly Piling Into Oil

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Uranium cannot be replaced and will be hot sector for 2020

Forex & Cryptos:

GBP/USD Forecast Pound Dollar December 6, 2019

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British Virgin Islands Announce US Dollar-Backed Digital Currency

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Mnuchin, Powell See No Need for Fed to Issue Digital FX. A snippet:

“Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he and Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell don’t expect the U.S. to create a digital currency.

“Chair Powell and I have discussed this — we both agree that in the near future, in the next five years, we see no need for the Fed to issue a digital currency,” Mnuchin said Thursday at a House Financial Services Committee hearing in Washington.

Some other central banks, including the People’s Bank of China, have discussed creating digital currencies. The European Central Bank is examining whether to develop its own digital currency if the private sector can’t make payments across borders faster and cheaper.”

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Over $5 Billion Worth of Bitcoin Moved in Minutes; What Happened?

Tangibles Investing:

Jim Supica’s advice: Hard to identify or value firearms

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News from local news outlets that is missed by the news wire services is especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!




10 Comments

  1. A comment about, this short article: “Trump’s “idiotic” trade policies will “destroy us”, here’s how according to Doug Casey.”
    Trump is committed to Making America Great Again, with good JOBS JOBS JOBS for Americans in >America. [Businesses want cheap labor wages in other countries, and then selling the products in the USA.]

    Anyone with investments should watch the election in 2020. +Everyone should prepare for the worst. Preps can be used doing a recession too; not just during a SHTF disaster. Doug Casey has been predicting a recession for years. He might be right eventually. = Even a blind pig finds an acorn eventually.
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    From TheConservativeTreehouse 11/28/2019, about the Donald Trump with Bill O’Riley interview.
    “Bill O’reilly had an extensive and semi-casual interview with President Trump a few days ago. Mr. O’Reilly released the full interview for Thanksgiving. They cover a lot of ground.

    O’Reilly is a decent interviewer, but doesn’t understand the complexity of the President Trump’s strategy in the geopolitical realm. The underestimation is not an O’Reilly weakness; the apparatus of ‘media’ do not grasp the full context of the background work POTUS has put into a global trade reset. >>>>>The global reset is a massive and ongoing plan.<<<<<

    Specifically as it pertains to China, O’Reilly is stuck in the traditional financial perspective that no U.S. President could ever walk away from China; which is exactly what President Trump is doing. So at 19:00 of the video below, O’Reilly asks: “what’s holding up the China deal?” To wit, President Trump pauses and matter-of-factually says: ….”ahhhhhh, ME!”<<<<<<
    *************

    From TheConservativeTreehouse. 12/2/2019

    "The U.S. economy is strong; all the fundamentals are solid. However, the multinationals on Wall Street -invested overseas- are more exposed. There is nothing that China and the EU can do to stop the de-globalization process; and efforts to stimulate their economy, more quantitative easing (pumping money) while the global supply chains are being shifted, are futile… they need “structural reform.” The multinationals are holding cash, waiting to see how it plays out."

    The more a nations’ economy is dependent on exports, the more exposure they have to the inherent downsides of de-globalization. U.S. companies that are invested in these nations will naturally see diminishing returns on investment over time; some rapidly. President Trump’s trade policy is controlling the speed of that investment contraction.

    The exposure of the multinationals keeps the stock market twitchy, yet the Main Street USA economy is thriving.

    China’s economy is dependent on selling products to the U.S. in order to receive dollars. China takes those dollars and then purchases industrial goods from Europe. If China gets less dollars they purchase less from Europe. In essence both China and the EU are dependent on receiving dollars from a maintained trade imbalance. President Trump has begun resetting that imbalance… that is the current status of the global economic flux."
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    Trump is about MAGA, and good jobs for Americans.

    1. I’m beginning to think Trump actually does play 4D chess, and wins. Sometimes it’s frustrating trying to see where he is going with his actions. I’ll be scratching my head saying WTF is he up to this time? Why is he doing that? However, I have found that just by waiting, Trumps endgame starts becoming clear. My wife keeps telling me to read his books. What he’s doing is in there somewhere, especially in “The Art of the Deal”. Maybe I should do as she asks.

  2. I have to disagree with Rubio on the illegal gold coming into Miami. It is none of our business that this gold is being mined by subsistence miners in the jungle. What exactly makes this illegal? Most likely that the Brazilian Government doesn’t get a cut. A little research shows that most of the mining is done by individuals on small claims. Yes they are not government regulated but people have to eat and Brazil is in financial trouble despite their large oil and other natural resources, there is high unemployment and virtually no state sponsored welfare system. With this type of reasoning the gold rush of 1849 was nothing more than a couple of million criminals removing gold from the California ground without government blessing or control.

  3. Love the visual. That picture is worth a thousand words. The monsters just might do it rather than trying to keep it inflated. They must get rid of Trump by any and all means. And they will try, and will probably be successful. Keep praying for Trump. If he some how wins in 2020, I believe they’ll pop it. That is of course if it does not blow up on it’s own tomorrow.

  4. What is illegal gold? Screw the government and those jack wagons making everything they don’t like illegal. Hard times ahead and I welcome them while I am somewhat physically able to help my children through them. God Bless America.

  5. Trump will not be impeached on the Senate level. Americans coast to coast (even liberals) are seeing through the fraud of the Demoncrats. Trump will be re-elected by such a majority in 2020 that it will make 2016 seem minor. People understand that what Trump is being accused of is nothing in comparison to the true scandals of the Obama/Biden/Clinton era. They are also aware of how much better off they are from a financial standpoint under Trump vs Obama. We can volley off subjects of an esoteric nature but it all comes down to an individual’s and family’s personal situation.

  6. I agree that Mr. Trump loves our country and is working his hardest to re-balance the global economy to work more in our favor. I agree that he’s a genius in the way he thinks and plans so many moves in advance. But in his first 4 years in office he’s been so hampered by all the stupid fake controversies. And even if he’s re-elected, he only has 4 more years to complete the work he’s trying to do. So, who do we have waiting in the wings that is able to continue the work he’s started? Where is there another such brilliant business leader who is also an anti-globalist patriot? We’d better hurry and find one for future reference, and start supporting that person now.

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