Economics & Investing For Preppers

Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR. Today, we look at investing in silver. (See the Precious Metals section.)

Precious Metals:

Jim Wyckoff: Gold, silver slip to 3-month lows at chart-based sellers emboldened. JWR’s Comment:  Buy on dips like these!

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Commander Zero of the great Notes From The Bunker blog had this terse but pointed commentary:  Silver.

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Daryl Robert Schoon: Illiquidity And Gold And Silver In The End Game

Economy & Finance:

Dimon says problems like the repo lending crunch could happen ‘increasingly if we’re not careful’. JWR’s Comment:  Even the Perpetual Cheering Section at CNBC must have taken notice, when they heard that!

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Port Report: LA port sees biggest October box drop in 24 years

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At Zero Hedge: Sears To Close A Third Of Its Remaining Stores As Iconic Retailer Fades Away

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Visualizing Walmart’s Domination Of The US Grocery Market

Commodities:

Oil falls after Trump downplays optimistic China trade reports

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OilPrice News reports: Saudi Arabia Bullies Ultra-Rich Into Buying Aramco Stock

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The One Metric That Matters For Electric Cars

Bonds:

At Wolf Street: Negative Yielding Bonds Turn into Punishment Bonds

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Rates surge with the 10-year Treasury yield jumping the most since Trump’s election

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CNBC: Here’s what could throw a wrench in the bond yield bounce

At The Banks:

Hong Kong Banks Send Some Staff Home as Tear Gas Wafts Outside

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And reader H.L. sent us this: “Clients With Guns” Are Demanding Deposits From Crisis-Stricken Lebanese Banks

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PMC bank scam: Depositors stages protest outside RBI, several detained by police

Forex & Cryptos:

Technical analysis video from John Fortune: Weekly Forex Forecast 11th – 15th November 2019

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Martin W. Armstrong: China Moving to Create Digital Currency

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Peter Schiff Fires Back After Facebook Crypto Head Calls Bitcoin “Digital Gold”

Tangibles Investing:

Watching the completed auctions at GunBroker.com, I’ve been shocked at the relative price inflation of three types of long guns, in the past year: FN49 rifles, M1 Carbines, and M1 Garand rifles. Then it dawned on me:  It is buyers in California who are driving this price inflation. With California’s draconian so-called “assault weapons” ban still in place (after 25 years), there are precious few semi-auto centerfire rifles that are exempted. Most notably, there are exemptions for Ruger Mini-14 carbines, FN49 rifles, M1 Carbines, and M1 Garand rifles. Mini-14s are still being cranked out by the Ruger factory, so they haven’t seen much inflation. But the other three?  Wow! The supply is essentially frozen, so prices can only go one way. Up!

My advice: Keep your eyes peeled for choice condition M1 Carbines and M1 Garands with no import marks. Also look for minty examples of the Belgian FN49. In particular, it is the Luxembourg (.30-06) model and the Venezuelan (7×57) model where you have a reasonable chance of finding a truly minty example.  I honestly expect to see these prices by 2025:

  • FN49 rifles: $1,800 to $3,200
  • M1 Carbines:  $1,200 to $1,900
  • M1 Garands: $1,600 to $3,000

Or probably even higher if there is a new Federal “Assault Weapons” Ban enacted, and these long guns are exempted.

Provisos:

SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.

News Tips:

Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News from local news outlets that is missed by the news wire services is especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!




15 Comments

  1. Commander Zero is not someone I’m familiar with but his comments on the usefulness of precious metals during certain phases of an economic crisis ring true. People who use the phrase “You can’t eat silver and gold!” are missing very important truths that are borne out in almost every financial crisis, including Venezuela. Precious metals are useful when fiat currency is losing value and goods are still available, and becomes less useful as the supply of goods dries up – or those selling food and other necessities demand other forms of payment. I suspect government retrictions on the possesion or use of PMs also shortens the windows of opportunity to use them unless one is willing to deal with black market trading. I’ve done some study on this subject and PMs have their place in the beginning of a financial crisis (before it peaks) and during the recovery phase as long as posession of metals isn’t restricted. There are also regional considerations which I won’t get into here. My opinion – routine purchases of PMs as prices dip should be a part of everyone’s preparedness plan. A roll of dimes or quarters one month, perhaps a tube of eagles the next, or maybe infrequent purchases of gold eagles, buffalos or small bars. It adds up over time.

    1. PM’s are always your hedge, In times of crises the “black market” becomes the norm, this is where you get the food, medicines, and other goods you need to survive. All one has to do is look at history and any national crises, drought, famine, evil governments, war, plague etc. I remember my father talking about how hard it was to get some goods during WW2 with rationing, but he also said if you knew someone that knew someone etc. you could find that tire you needed for your car outside the ration system. An other example, while working in Costa Rica many years ago there was a national flour shortage. The Government didn’t have the money to pay for a ship load of flour, it sat for about a month awaiting payment all the while incurring demurrage. You could still find flour but at 3 times it’s normal price. I had a friend who owned a restaurant and smuggled 50 lbs of flour in for her. The take is that the black market is always with us but becomes far more important when a society is stressed, Barter becomes king, Zimbabwe dollars find their way to the outhouse.

  2. “The one metric that matters for electric cars.”

    No such animal.

    It’s a ‘coal/nuke/oil/natural gas’ powered car…

    …unless you have a wind farm or a few acres of solar panels in your backyard.

  3. Move to the country. Relying on modes of transportation is only a critical consideration in a logistically dependent supply chain society.
    ie. path of least resistance:
    Shop with your bank card at MalWart

  4. RE: WWII rifles; Just got back from the Tulsa show. I don’t doubt JWR’s 2025 price predictions at all. Even now these rifles have climbed, especially the M1 carbines as these are not available from the CMP. There were a lot (100s) of M1 Garands at the show, but most were priced between $800-$1200, with the more collectible ones over $2k, and higher, some over $3k. You could still get a ratty ‘shooter’ M1 carbine for $600, but most were priced $800+ with the ones with early sights, no bayonet lug and flat bolts going for $1600+, add Winchester to that and it’s a $2500 gun. There were a lot less of the M1 carbines there. I did not check the FN-49s. Both guns were selling, as our table is near the exit and saw some leave the show with the little green (sold) sticker on them.

  5. Sears was purposely driven to bankruptcy(they were the biggest of the mail order houses,bigger than amazon at the time),they are the juggernaught of the retailpocolypse. Great deals if one closes on your area if you know how to shop a firesale.

    1. You want something that says P100, which is for particulates. This will keep out viruses and radioactive dust. However, this will do absolutely nothing for chemicals. Cannot stress that enough.

      Paper ones will work fine for short term, full-face piece are more $ but have the advantage of keeping stuff out of your mucous membranes.

      As I consider the risk for either to be pretty low, pick up a pack of paper P-100 at Home Depot, or N95 if you can’t find P-100. N95 doesn’t filter as finely, but you’re still talking virus levels of filtration.

  6. RE: the Walmart article. Every once in awhile I order something from Walmart online that I cannot order from Amazon or Costco. I live a several hours drive from any of these stores, so I order online when I don’t want to do the drive since shipping is “free”, altho we know it’s just baked into the price. It’s worth a tank of gas to me. And I will tell you that Walmart has done a fantastic job in the last couple of years improving their delivery service. Years ago it took weeks to get a box. The last couple of years the time went down to 2-day delivery, but their packaging was horrible resulting in broken products. This year, I was surprised to find that they were using heavy duty boxes, great packing techniques, etc. Their packaging was better than Costco’s! That upped my interest in purchasing from Walmart online. While I rail against buying anything from a big box store, there are just some things I can’t get elsewhere at the price point I want. I will continue until it’s impossible to do so.

    1. Our Shopko closed last year.The K Mart is closing next month. The mall had two anchor stores,now there is only Penney’s and it doesn’t look good for them.
      WalMart has lost their nerve so there’s no reason for me to go there.That is what is happening in our little corner of the Redoubt and all over the country.
      If at all possible give your business to Mom and Pop.They need us and we need them.

  7. RE: M1 garands and Cali patriots – bingo! I am aware of some folks who bought them last year. There’s actually, most probably, although I wouldn’t personally know… more guns in Cali than any other state save Texas. Woe to the politicians who dare to tread further.

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