Here are the latest items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on the False Recovery. (See the Stocks section, below.)
Precious Metals:
The spot price of platinum is still in the doldrums, but recently saw an uptick. Any point in time when you can buy an ounce of platinum for less than ounce of gold, then it is a good time to buy platinum!
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I’m not a believer in most of what the Chartists have to say. But I found this macro analysis interesting: Ira Epstein’s Precious Metals Video August-2-2017.
Commodities:
After spiking in 2016, the price of sugar seems to be returning to its long term downtrend. The 2016 spike was attributed to El Niño weather patterns. If you ever hear of another El Niño developing, then immediately stock up on sugar!
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The average price of propane is around $2.40 per gallon, nationwide. Locally, we just saw a deep dip in prices in the northern half of the American Redoubt. This might be a good time to top off your tanks.
Stocks (The False Recovery):
The bull market in stocks keeps pegging new highs. Lest the euphoria at the CNBC Cheering Sectiontm overtake you, consider these sobering facts:
- Since WWII, the average economic recovery in the U.S. lasts 58 months before a recession. We’ve now gone 96 months. We are not Australia.
- Interest rates have been held near zero since 2006. That’s 11 years of living in fantasyland. Note that the Federal Reserve is finally now raising interest rates.
- The current “recovery” was not the result of the normal business cycle. Instead, it was artificially created by a combination of low interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE). Simply put, that is creating money out of thin air. Most of that money went into just a few sectors. The biggest winners were the bankers of lower Manhattan and the brokers on Wall Street. Here, down on Main Street in small town USA, the recovery has been lackluster, at best.
- We are now entering a new era of Quantitative Tightening (QT).
Be ready for a bear market in equities and a long, deep recession or full scale depression. Diversify into tangibles, folks. And start shifting your stock portfolio into some recession-proof stocks like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) and Clorox (CLX). It is too bad that The Coleman Company is privately held. If they offered stock, that might be the ultimate contrarian buy–since they certainly have the right product mix. (By that, I’m not referring to recreational camping gear. Rather, I mean WTSHTF camping gear.)
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Over at Seeking Alpha, Jeroen Blokland asks: Calm Before The Storm?
Economy and Finance:
Senate To Hold Bipartisan Hearings To Stabilize Insurance Markets
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Ellen Brown: Dear Mr. President, Be Careful What You Wish For: Higher Interest Rates Will Kill The Recovery
Troubling Trends:
CNBC Video: Four major US cities ring housing bubble alarm
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At The Economist: Withdrawal symptoms: The closing of American bank branches
Tangibles Investing:
How Rare Coins Can Help Your Investment Portfolio
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Three Rules: Shotguns as Investments
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. So please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who particularly watch individual markets. And due to their diligence and focus, we benefit from fresh “on target” investing news. We often “gets the scoop” on economic and investing news that is probably ignored (or reported late) by mainstream American news outlets. Thanks!
We bought Coleman stocks….and the CEO back then ran the company into bankruptcy. Better off buying coffee beans.