Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on Peak Real Real Estate. (See the Economy & Finance section.)
Precious Metals:
Gold Faces New Headwinds As Bond Yields Hit 7-Year High
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A Bottom In Gold Price But Not THE Bottom
Economy & Finance (Peak Real Real Estate):
It appears that with rising interest rates, most of the United States may have already reached to point of peak real estate–that is, the precipice of a housing market crash that may make the 2006-2010 real estate downturn seem mild, by comparison. As of this writing, I’m now recommending that my readers and consulting clients sell any vacation or rental property that they don’t consider viable for use as a retreat. With silver and gold presently low, this is now a good juncture to turn some of your real estate wealth into physical precious metals wealth. Silver is still my favorite. Remember: “Buy low, and sell high.” 2018 will most likely be remembered as a high point for home and land prices.
I recently found this fascinating article about the California real estate market: More Disappointed Sellers Are Offering Discounts.
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And along to those same lines, there was this, over at Wolf Street: Red Ink: Housing Inflects Further in Bay Area’s Sonoma County
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Venezuela’s annual inflation hits 488,865 percent in September: congress
Stocks:
The effects of if higher interest rates and QE un-winding are now being felt. Have stocks peaked? Probably not yet, but bonds have definitely begun crash. Here is an interesting piece at Seeking Alpha: Stocks: 2018 Has Little In Common With 2007. I must reiterate: After a 10 year expansion without a recession, our economy is On Borrowed Time. Protect your stock portfolio with Stop Loss orders, immediately!
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Tesla’s Autonomous Driving Narrative Has Hit A Brick Wall
Commodities:
At Seeking Alpha: Base Metals Third Quarter 2018 Review And Outlook For Q4 2018
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Grain Prices Finding Their Bullish October Footing? JWR’s Comment: The impact of deep early snows in Alberta disrupting the wheat harvest should not be overlooked. Ditto for the drought in Australia’s Grain Belt. The coming northern hemisphere winter may be harsh–especially east of Rockies. Plan accordingly.
Tangibles Investing:
I have been amazed to see the prices of AR-15 parts dip so incredibly low. Many gun dealers are calling this “The Trump Slump.” It is mainly born of complacency. Presently, if you buy them in quantity, you can find serialized black anodized stripped AR-15 lower receivers for as low as $39 each, and complete lowers with stocks for as low as $129. (I spotted those at my favorite AR parts supplier, Palmetto State Armory.) My advice: stock up!
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who particularly watch individual markets. And due to their diligence and focus, we benefit from fresh “on target” investing news. We often get the scoop on economic and investing news that is probably ignored (or reported late) by mainstream American news outlets. Thanks!
“’Gold Is On The Cusp’ Of An ‘Explosion Higher'”
heh. “exploding gold”. cool.
not comex paper gold. and your physical gold isn’t going to be worth more than comex paper gold any time soon.
Gman,
I have noticed you are bearish on precious metals. I get your point. That being said, try to remember the COMEX price for silver, $14.40 an ounce, is for a 5000 ounce contract. Physical silver is always going to be more expensive to own, always. But that 5k ounce value piece of paper is just paper, my physical silver is very real, it’s mine, and I haven’t lost a dime in value regardless of what the paper price does. If things head south, the holder of that paper is s*** out of luck when trying to collect on that contract, in other words trying to convert that paper into actual silver. Mine is in my safe and, at some point in the future, convertible into goods and services. The same goes for gold. I don’t know what weight the paper gold contract is for, but it’s still just a damn piece of paper.
“I have noticed that you are bearish on precious metals”
it’s not that I’m bearish, it’s that I don’t have faith in them. those who have a “bullish” attitude towards precious metals seem to be engaged in wishful thinking and unable to answer basic questions about, or to perceive any factual constraints regarding, their faith.
I don’t think we are even close to a housing slump nationwide. The problem we face is the opposite: It’s hard to find a builder who has time to build your house. All the trades are busy. The interest rates via the Fed and those offered by mortgage companies are a bargain..no they aren’t zero, but there is nothing that signifies a terrible economy more than zero interest rates…desperation. That was very evident when Mr. Obama was in office. I do agree that if you own real estate that is not performing as a true asset, then get rid of it.
“there is nothing that signifies a terrible economy more than zero interest rates…desperation.”
hardly. when they give you that “loan” they’re not loaning you anything at all. to come up with the dollars they just type it in, stealing the value from everyone around the world who uses a dollar, same as any counterfeiter. then they present that to you as a “loan”, for which you are obligated to work to get the dollars to “pay them back”.
Gman, you’re off a bit re the loan. When the banks
loan you the money, they literally wire that money
to the closing or escrow agent, who literally
disburses it to various parties at the closing.
The realtors, the seller, various 3rd party vendors
etc. it isn’t just imaginary.