Category: Odds ‘n Sods

David D. sent a link to a most interesting paper. The abstract begins: “Throughout history, the expansion of human population has been supported by a steady growth in our use of high-quality exosomatic energy. The operation of our present industrial civilization is wholly dependent on access to a very large amount of energy of various types. If the availability of this energy were to decline significantly it could have serious repercussions for civilization and the human population it supports. This paper constructs production models for the various energy sources we use and projects their likely supply evolution out to the …

I recently had a reader in Quebec (who prefers to be anonymous) e-mail me to ask if I thought that the gold market was nearing its peak. The short answer is no. Adjusted for the inflation of today’s US dollar, the 1980 high in the spot price of gold would be over $2,200 per ounce today. I expect the next peak to be somewhere north of $1,500 per ounce. To be conservative and safe, if you have a large position in gold, you should start to gradually cash out once gold passes the $800 mark. Don’t be greedy and try …

McC. flagged this article for us: Japan and China lead flight from the dollar    o o o Reader RBS suggested this article by Captain Hook, over at the Financial Sense University web site: The Panic Window Approaches    o o o RBS also sent us this: Hedge funds: Be afraid of those definitions.    o o o I was recently told about The Utility Belt Blog (aka “Viridari Bushcraft and Preparedness”). This blog has a great mix of posts on outdoor survival, practical shooting, general preparedness, and everyday carry

Thanks to RBS, who sent this from The Times of London‘s web edition: There’s a chance Northern Rock is worth zero    o o o Those of you that have enjoyed reading the entertaining Hillbilly Housewife blog should be advised that they are no longer sharing web space. They bought their own domain name: HillBillyHousewife.com/. (Please update your links and bookmarks.)    o o o The demographic handwriting is on the wall: First Baby Boomer Files For Social Security Benefits. JWR’s comment: My favorite snippet from the SSA press conference: “There is no reason to have any immediate panic…” As …

Mish Shedlock has recently posted some interesting items on his blog about Super SIVs and troubled Countrywide Financial’s ) CEO Angelo Mozilo bailing out of his own shares in the company.   o o o SHTF Daily (one of our daily “must read” blogs) recently posted links to seven sobering economics articles: Mass auction reveals depth of foreclosure crisis, Even the renters now feel the mortgage crisis, Subprime crisis won’t peak until 2009, The dollar era is over: a long, slow collapse and a central bank firesale, Meltdown still has plenty of steam ahead, Global finance leaders gather as economic clouds …

From SHTF Daily comes this sobering article and accompanying CBS News video clip: Builders Giving Up On The Sinking Market.  Now it is not just defaulting buyers that are “walking away.” The article indicates a loss of “$1.2 trillion from the value of American homes. And the losses are mounting, going to $4 trillion by one estimate, by the end of next year.”One observation on the video clip: Is wearing one’s baseball cap backwards a key indicator of sub-prime borrowing, sub-prime intelligence, or both? I’d hate to tell that real estate “investor” what sort of house and how much acreage $597,000 …

RBS sent this: U.S. Foreclosure Filings Nearly Double in September Over Same Month a Year Ago   o o o Thanks to L.W. for sending this link: Only Now, the Full Horror of Burmese Junta’s Repression of Monks Emerges    o o o Morgan Stanley Traders Lost $390 Million in One Day    o o o Hawaiian K. sent us this: Windbelt, Cheap Generator Alternative, Set to Power Third World

Steve H. and Ben L. both mentioned this: New fire-retardant gel can save homes. Ben’s comment: $12,000 to $20,000 may seem like quite a bit of money, but compared to the total price of a house, is it really that much?    o o o I just noticed that JRH Enterprises had a couple of scarce Gen 3 AN/PVS-14 night vision weapon sights available. With the current heavy government contract demand to support the war in Iraq, these don’t hit the civilian market very often!    o o o The price of wheat has gone up 75% in just the …

By way of SHTF Daily, James Saft of Reuters reports: Americans charge it as Bank of Subprime closes. A collective $909 billion balance on credit cards? ¡Ay Carumba! Meanwhile, we read at The Baltimore Sun: Credit card debt is ready to blow: (Thanks to Hawaiian K. for sending that link.)    o o o RBS flagged this: Heating Oil Prices To Jump 22 Percent Over Last Winter, Says Energy Department    o o o RBS also sent us this: Mortgage Lender Thornburg ups estimated loss on loan sales    o o o I hope that most of you took my …

More “ARM Twisting” ahead: It has been widely reported that nearly one trillion dollars worth of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) will reset to higher interest rates in the next 18 months. That is nearly 20% of all mortgage loans outstanding. Are the majority of sub-prime borrowers ready for the higher monthly payments? Probably not. So we can expect to see a lot more delinquencies and foreclosures in the next two years. As previously mentioned in SurvivalBlog, a small portion of rural foreclosures may represent a retreat buying opportunity. Monitor the market closely, either through a cooperative agent in your selected …

Speaking at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole, Wyoming conclave in August, Yale University Professor Dr. Robert Shiller said that residential house prices might fall as much as 50% in some former real estate boom areas. As evidence, he cited how much home prices have escalated in comparison to rents. Personally, I think that 50% is an optimistic figure. Given the pendulum-like nature of macro market swings, I think that prices in some cities like Phoenix and San Diego may drop at much as 65% from their peak. And it may take five or six years before prices hit bottom. I …

Writing in the September, 2007 issue of The American Rifleman magazine, Walter J. Kuleck reports that there is a logistical support problem for the thousands of M14 rifles that have been issued to US troops deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan. Kuleck writes: “…there is essentially no support available through Department of Defense channels–no parts, accessories, magazines, tools or documentation beyond a new Preventive Maintenance [PM] Magazine comic book and a 40-year-old manuals printed from on-line PDF files. The Army has made some efforts to buy back parts surplused decades ago and to purchase new walnut stocks, for example. Most components, …

Via SHTF Daily comes this commentary from Robert P. Murphy: The Worst Recession in 25 years?    o o o Typhoon Season: China Evacuates 1 Million As Storm Hits    o o o Blair recommended this article by Dr. Gary North (my hero): A 10-Step Personal Self-Defense Strategy Against a Coordinated Bioterrorist Attack    o o o RBS flagged this piece from The Age (in Australia): Food shock as ‘agflation’ sees prices rise

Alphie sent us this: “Adding Insult to Injury Department ” news story: Lost your home? You may owe IRS    o o o Homebuilders: Lennar’s Loss Deepens the Pain    o o o DV sent us this item: Bird flu virus mutating into human-unfriendly form. The article begins: “The H5N1 bird flu virus has mutated to infect people more easily, although it still has not transformed into a pandemic strain, researchers said…”    o o o Found at the Drudge Report: Adventurer ends 13-year human-powered world trip

Sam M. sent us this: CIBC Economist: $100 Oil by End of ’08–Expert: Oil Prices Set to Hit $100 by End of ’08, and Will Likely Stay at Triple-Digit Level. Perhaps the “alarmist” Peak Oil crowd was not far from the mark.    o o o A hat tip to Ben L. for forwarding us this article link: Tamiflu may create resistant bird flu    o o o The folks at SHTF Daily linked to a great primer on sound, specie-backed money being replaced by fiat currency: The Rule of Planned Money    o o o Chuck suggested ED-Day–Dead Sydney, …