Category: Economics & Investing

Letter Re: Barter as an Investment and a Hedge

While barter for necessities is one possibility, barter for wealth is another. A poor man with a small investment in an essential TEOTWAWKI item can magnify his wealth. If you are not in a position to outfit yourself with the food/weapons/tools you would like now, consider a barter investment. Something you can get cheaply now, and then trade for the items that are currently out of your budget. When choosing barter goods for storage, consider seven things. Original cost, size, availability, need, divisibility, verification, and indestructibility. Items stored for barter should: (1) Have a very low initial cost. In this …


Another Perspective on Selecting Barter Goods, by OSOM

Dear Jim: The recent letter on barter goods caused me to sit down and organize my thoughts on the matter. Running a successful retail/wholesale operation, I can see some caveats and analysis that needs further exploration. What’s WRONG with Barter Goods As has been well emphasized before – forget about barter goods until you are squared away for your own logistics. Beyond that, remember that barter goods are much inferior to money or cash in a functioning economy, with a good division of labor. If you need to sell them to raise cash, it will take some effort, and you …


Two Letters Re: Alcohol and Tobacco as Barter Items

Mr. Rawles: Thanks to Warhawke for his very well written article. There are two items conspicuous in their absence, tobacco and alcohol. I seem to remember reading somewhere, perhaps in the novel Lucifer’s Hammer, that people will always want to smoke and drink no matter how bad things are. I am wondering if you and/or Warhawke have any thoughts? Would it be prudent to stock an occasional can of Plowboy tobacco and some of the little airline bottles of booze? I’m very Interested in your thoughts. – Carl In Wisconsin Sir: Greetings and thanks for the great web site. In …


Getting Ready for Survival On a (Broken) Shoestring Budget by J. Cole

Since the mid-1960s, after reading Pat Frank’s novel Alas Babylon, I have been interested in preparing myself for TEOTWAWKI. And, as a child of the 1950s growing up in central Florida, I was taught early to be ready in case of nuclear war, so Frank’s book was not that far-fetched to me. My family was poor by any standard you could compare it to in those days. There was no chance of us ever affording a “bomb shelter” but preparations were made as best we could. We stocked up on canned food and water, we had a central hallway with …


Stealth Inflation, by Inyokern

This is in response to this article you posted a link to The Fed and Baby Boomers. The Federal Reserve is trying its best to solve the incoming budget crisis as the baby boomers near retirement age. Soon a relatively low number of workers will be paying taxes to support a high number of retirees. Really unsustainable numbers are involved. So how do you solve it? Well, either you tell yourself that the youth will pay for it because they have no choice (which would be a bad assumption), or you find a way to make the money paid to …


Letter Re: Thoughts on Investing, by Michael Z. Williamson

Dear Jim, I’ve been following the investing threads and would like to weigh in. The first item is to consider what emergency your investments are for. A collapse of order or society could make ammunition and other tangible hard goods very valuable. Conversely, an economic collapse could predate that by years (see Germany during the Depression), in which case freehold real estate and bullion are much more useful. Some people are stating that “X will be worthless,” but that all depends on the scenario. To assume that one and only one disaster will happen, and will happen within a set …


Selecting Barter Goods, by Warhawke

In a post-TEOTWAWKI world just about everyone realizes that paper money will become useless (unless you can get enough to use as insulation for your house) and there has been much discussion of gold, silver and other items for barter in these pages. I have devoted a great deal of thought to this subject and I would like to share a few of my ideas on the subject with you. I’m going to try to be fairly short on details here in order to keep the length of the article manageable. Keep in mind that what I am discussing here …


Two Letters Re: Advice on Ammunition and Precious Metals for Barter?

Jim, I read your post of 10/15 about barter items and the problems with fake gold coins. You wrote: “The other major problem with using gold coins for survival barter, regardless of their weight, is that they will be immediately suspect as counterfeit by the individual on the other side of the table.” You are quite correct, but an easy and affordable solution is available. Please note that I am not a salesman for this product nor affiliated with the company in any way. I am simply someone who has been working on preparedness for 40 years and have found …


Letter Re: Advice on Ammunition and Precious Metals for Barter?

Mr. R.: Years back a good friend – a “tech incubator” and investment banker – asked me “What would make a good, easily portable medium of exchange ?” He was referencing some WTSHTF, post apocalyptic scenario. Good question. We thought about it and came up with answers, none of which were a pretty, malleable, ductile, shiny metal. Same with diamonds. Pretty. How do they taste when brewed up in the coffee-pot ? … oh yeah, they don’t! Wanna barter ? You’d better be bringing something to the table that has functional value. Food. Water. Shelter. Fire. Things that go bang. …


Letter Re: Advice on Ammunition and Precious Metals for Barter?

Jim: Some thoughts with regards to the following [from JWR]: “If and when you want to buy (via barter) a gallon of kerosene, a box of ammunition, or a can of beans, then gold is inappropriate. How would someone make “change” for a transaction that is priced at 1/100th of the value of a one ounce American Eagle or one ounce Krugerrand gold coin? With a cold chisel?” While I feel that the advice given, namely to use pre-1965 silver dimes, is sound, I want to comment on the above, since it is grossly misleading. For starters, everyone seems fixated …


Letter Re: Advice on Ammunition and Precious Metals for Barter?

Mr. Rawles, I recently read your post about your attending a coin show in California. What are your recommendations for getting started in collecting a few gold coins in case the monetary system collapses (I don’t have the foggiest idea how to begin)? How much should I purchase, what types, and in what quantities? I assume that having a couple extra cases of shotgun shells and a few boxes of .22 [rimfire] rounds will also go a long way in a barter environment (not to mention a water filter or two.) Any advice or direction that you can share would …


Two Letters Re: Chevron’s Deep Oil Strike in the Gulf of Mexico

Mr. Rawles I read your blog often, thanks for the entertaining and informative site. I would like to comment on David from Israel’s post regarding Chevron’s oil strike in the gulf. I work for a very large E & P company and have many years experience in drilling and production. There is nothing holding back the exploitation of this field except time to build the facilities and and acquiring the drill ships (cost $500,000+ per day for the ship) to punch the holes. We routinely produce gas and oil from 24,000′; the depth of the water does not really matter …


The Real Estate Bubble Bust — Where and When is the Bottom?

Here is your daily dose of Doom und Gloom (DUG)TM: I was recently asked by a consulting client where and when the U.S. real estate market will likely bottom. Clearly, the market has until recently been frothy, with all the signs of a speculative bubble. Lots of people that had no business doing so bought “spec” houses. Many of these buyers were under-qualified, often stretching the truth on their mortgage applications when they described their assets and incomes. Many houses were bought with interest only loans. They purchased second, third, or even fourth homes with the goal of flipping them …


From David in Israel: Chevron’s Deep Oil Strike in the Gulf of Mexico

There is a big problem with counting the Chevron Oil strike in the Gulf of Mexico because of its depth. This hit that is estimated to be large is also inaccessible using current equipment. Chevron and two other companies had to go 7,000 feet below the warm water layer of the Gulf of Mexico, and then drill miles below the sea floor for a total depth of 28,175 feet. For comparison this is cruising altitude for an airliner, compare that depth to the 69 foot depth of the first commercial oil well in the USA. We need to first design …


Derivatives–The Mystery Man Who’ll Break the Global Bank at Monte Carlo

When I do radio interviews or lecture presentations, I’m often asked: “Mister Rawles, what do you see as a likely ‘worst case scenario’?” People expect me to say “a full scale nuclear exchange in World War III” or, “a stock market crash”, or “a flu pandemic”, or “a sudden end to the current real estate bubble.” But most of them are surprised when I respond: Economic collapse triggered by the popping of the derivatives bubble. Many people that are involved in the periphery of the investing–including most small investors–have never even heard of derivatives. They may have heard of ‘hedge …