Here are the latest items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on how to avoid Auction Fever. (See the Tangibles section, near the end of this column.) Today’s column is terse, since JWR is traveling to view the eclipse.
Precious Metals:
The 46-Year Record of Platinum-Gold Ratios
Stocks:
Ron Paul: 50% stock market plunge ‘conceivable,’ but it’s not President Trump’s fault
Commodities:
Next, over at OilPrice.com: The Strategic Petroleum Reserve Is Slowly Dying
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I missed this when it was posted back in April: 2020s To Be A Decade of Disorder For Oil
Forex:
USD CHF Forecast 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021
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Trading China’s Evolving Forex Markets
Troubling Trends:
One man’s YouTube commentary, with a focus on real estate: U.S. Economy is Collapsing
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Asia has been the world’s economic miracle. Three countries are threatening that
Tangibles Investing (Auction Fever):
The following three links are meant as an encouragement to SurvivalBlog readers to avoid “auction fever”. Folks can even get carried away with online eBay bidding!
It is wise to check your emotions at the door. And commit yourself to your maximum bids, before the bidding starts:
Planet Money Podcast: Episode 678: Auction Fever
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BBC: Why do we pay more than we should at auctions?
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Why Big Spenders Fall Prey To ‘The Winner’s Curse’
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The rational irrationality of auction fever
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. So please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who particularly watch individual markets. And due to their diligence and focus, we benefit from fresh “on target” investing news. We often “get the scoop” on economic and investing news that is probably ignored (or reported late) by mainstream American news outlets. Thanks!
Some random comments: The geopolitical event of the decade has been the amount of oil and gas found by frackers in the U.S. The Permian Basin alone is currently thought to contain about 2 trillion barrels of recoverable oil, enough to power the economy for a long time. In addition, “flammable ice” (methane hydrate) will within 10 years be mined from the sea floor in large quantities. The resulting gas reserves can be used for a variety of things, including cars. The result of all this will probably be low energy prices for the foreseeable future. In normal times, that would be a huge positive for the economy. (These aren’t normal times…)
This will alienate some folks, but cryptocurrencies are more dangerous than most people realize. They are imaginary things, represented by numbers in a computerized ledger. They can evaporate as fast as they have appeared. And they require electricity to be used. Metals and barterable items are still the best way to prepare for a crisis. I suggest considering all cryptocurrencies as extreme speculations. Don’t bet the farm — literally or figuratively in a state of greed.
One more thought. If there’s a bubble in financial markets, it’s in bonds, not stocks. Argentina just issued 100 year bonds. This is Argentina, which has defaulted 4 times in the last 100 years, most recently in 2014. With an 8% yield, people lined up to buy these things. Yes, 8%, but the chance of getting your principal back is low to nonexistent. And, if interest rates start to rise, the market value of these bonds will plunge. Credit markets are crazy, folks — it makes the stock market look sane and conservative. If there’s a financial crisis, it will probably start somewhere in the credit market, and then spread to stocks and everything else.
I remember reading a story by Matt Bracken about not buying bonds, with emphasis on the word “BONDS”. (can’t find it right now). Government municipal BONDS at any level (local, county, state, FedGov) are a BONDAGE on the people, and are repaid by raising taxes and other fees imposed from above by the issuing government. And usually give little in return.