Welcome to SurvivalBlog’s Precious Metals Month in Review, where we take a look at “the month that was” in precious metals. Each month, we cover gold’s performance and silver’s performance and examine the factors that affected the metal prices.
WHAT DID GOLD AND SILVER DO IN JANUARY?
The new year brought new all-time highs for gold while silver marched higher, rebounding from a nearly three-month downtrend.
Gold rallied an impressive 1.3% on Thursday, Jan. 2nd only to give back most of those gains over the next two trading sessions. Silver prices rose during each of the first seven days of trading to begin 2025, jumping from below $29 per ounce at the start of the month to $30.32/oz by Friday, Jan. 10th. However, both metals slumped sharply lower on Monday, Jan. 13th: gold lost over 1.1% and silver shed 82 cents (-2.7%) on the day.
This would nonetheless be the last time silver closed below $30 during January. The argent metal added more than $1 from Jan. 14th to Jan. 16th. Gold prices also posted their third straight week of gains to move above the $2,700/oz threshold—and remained above that key level for the rest of the month. After Friday, Jan. 17th, when spot silver lost 50 cents to fall to $30.25/oz, it would not suffer another loss of that magnitude.
There was still one more downswing in store for gold, coinciding with the brutal sell-off of tech stocks on Jan. 27th. Spot gold tumbled 1% lower, but computer chipmaker Nvidia erased a staggering $589 billion in market cap on the day as it fell 17%. This gives a sense of the absurd over-valuation for the company, and there is more than a hint of irony that none of its software or hardware can work without precious metals.
A few more days of modest gains for both metals led up to a breakout on Thursday, January 30th. The gold price surged to a new record-high above $2,800/oz, and silver rose 80 cents higher to $31.60/oz. The final day of the month saw gold hold steady while silver slid back to $31.35/oz.
The gold price is up 6.9% so far in 2025. It seems that silver has finally built a firm floor of support at the $30 level; it has already risen roughly 8.6% from where it closed on New Year’s Eve.
FACTORS AFFECTING GOLD AND SILVER THIS MONTH
While the continual loss of purchasing power for fiat currencies has certainly helped the precious metals, it doesn’t appear that gold or silver are currently responding to any safe-haven demand. Yes, there was plenty of bullion buying in the East ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year, and gold enjoyed the strong seasonal effect we highlighted in last month’s column. Yet at least two broader developments worked against the metals in January.
First, the ceasefire in the Middle East has held up for now. Israel and Hamas have exchanged hostages for prisoners without a hitch. Even Hezbollah in Lebanon has thus far abided by the pause in hostilities, although the situation in Syria remains potentially volatile. This might not be good news for gold, but it’s undoubtedly a welcome shift otherwise.
Second, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at its meeting on January 29th. The FOMC’s post-meeting statement characterized the U.S. labor market as “stabilized” while acknowledging that inflation remains stubbornly high. Predictably, gold prices dropped in disappointment that rates weren’t cut, though silver fared better.
The manner in which the economy and global trade respond to President Trump’s proposed tariffs—and even simply threats of tariffs—is still a bit of a wild card. (There are many more details about how this is already affecting the precious metals market globally in the “Market Buzz” section below.) World markets are also closely tracking the continued economic slowdown in China and the looming threat of a recession in Europe.
One factor that likely gave the metals a boost was the performance of stocks. There are signs that the U.S. stock market may have peaked. Several key metrics for equities are comparable to the dot-com bubble at the beginning of the 21st century. Likewise, the ratio of the silver price to tech stock values (as measured by the Nasdaq index) is at its lowest in 20 years, indicating this relationship is on the cusp of reverting to historical averages. A similar comparison can be made between the market capitalization of U.S. equities to the value of above-ground gold globally. These trends will eventually reverse in favor of the metals. Of course, let’s always keep in mind the aphorism, “the market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent.”
CENTRAL BANK GOLD PURCHASES
Note to readers: Most data about international gold reserves are delayed by a month. They are not typically reported to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and are instead compiled by private organizations such as the World Gold Council (WGC).
The Central Bank of Jordan bought 4 tons of gold in November, its first purchase since July.
The Reserve Bank of India added 8 tons of gold to reserves in November. It increased its gold reserves by 73 tons in 2024, second only to the National Bank of Poland.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore sold 5 tons of gold in November, bringing down its total reserves to 223 tons.
The People’s Bank of China bought 10 tons of gold in December, and over 44 tons in total during 2024. (That’s how much has been publicly reported, at least.)
The Bank of Ghana bought 1 ton of gold in December, with 11 tons of net purchases in 2024.
The National Bank of Kazakhstan says it will sell some domestically produced gold in order to support the country’s currency.
Amid sweeping financial reforms, Argentina is refusing to disclose the exact location of its central bank’s gold reserves.
Over the past five years, aggregate central bank gold inflows have exceeded 2,500 tons.
ON THE RETAIL FRONT
November and December bullion coin sales from the U.S. Mint have finally been updated, giving us a fuller picture of the 2024 sales numbers.
The new data show 983,000 oz of American Silver Eagles sold in November. This turns out to be the lowest monthly total of the year, as December sales of ASEs came in at 1,314,000 oz. The final tally brings annual Silver Eagle production figures to 24,862,000 oz, just slightly below the previous year’s output.
Somewhat frustratingly, the mint only reports its American Gold Eagle sales in terms of total coins sold now, requiring us to do a bit of math to reckon the actual number of ounces. In November 34,500 total ounces were sold. As usual the largest (1 oz) and smallest (1/10 oz) sizes are by far the best sellers, with few investors opting for the half-ounce or quarter-ounce gold coins.
The December gold sales data still seem to be incomplete, with some entries showing an error message, but as of now the annual total for Gold Eagles in 2024 is 412,000 oz. There were also 191,500 oz of Gold Buffalo coins sold during the year.
Meanwhile, Perth Mint in Australia continued to see its sales numbers disappoint, with 391,606 oz of gold minted products sold in 2024. This is the lowest yearly total for Perth since at least 2019.
MARKET BUZZ
Silver industrial demand continues to consume a higher and higher percentage of the world’s mine supply, rising every year since 2015.
The Silver Institute forecasts that the silver market will remain in a supply deficit for the fifth consecutive year in 2025.
While there is speculation that President Trump’s foreign policy initiatives could lead to a fresh surge in gold prices, the effect of tariffs on precious metal prices may prove to be a “mixed bag.”
Financial Times reports that due to the expected imposition of tariffs by the United States, so much bullion has been shipped out of the U.K. to New York that there is a shortage of gold bars in London.
Firms in the London bullion market are scrambling to borrow gold from large institutions in response to the supply crunch, even leading to delays of up to two months to withdraw gold from the Bank of England. (The normal withdrawal waiting period is less than a week.)
Accordingly, gold stocks in COMEX warehouses have risen by 33% in just six weeks.
On a similar note, LBMA silver inventories have been nearing record lows after 23 million ounces were drained in December.
In fact, according to Bloomberg News, stacks of silver bars and gold bars have been pouring into the U.S. from overseas flights since November in anticipation of Trump implementing tariffs. We ought to maintain a healthy skepticism, however, that this causal link being drawn to imminent tariffs is correct given that the recent media coverage of it has been both ubiquitous and breathless.
Chinese banks are reportedly loosening restrictions on citizens holding gold by reducing fees and lowering withdrawal thresholds.
In the nearby gold hub of Hong Kong, it’s becoming increasingly difficult for retail bullion banks to acquire gold.
There is widespread speculation that silver refineries are backlogged by three months in processing silver for COMEX bars—but this is as yet an unconfirmed rumor.
The North Dakota legislature is set to vote on a bill to remove capital gains taxes from precious metals. Momentum has also been growing for sound money legislation in Florida.
Lawmakers in Kentucky, New Hampshire, and Wyoming have all introduced bills to establish their own state gold reserves.
The Guardian published a lengthy explanation about why the current gold bull market shows no signs of weakening.
Economist Judy Shelton recently outlined how her proposal for government-issued gold-backed bonds would work.
Technical analysis suggests that the platinum price may be on the verge of a new leg upward after four years of moving mostly sideways.
Bonus treasure stories
A trove of gold and silver coins minted in the 17th century were found in a church in Germany where Martin Luther performed his final sermons.
Metal detectorists in Holland found a hoard of gold and silver coins dating back to the Roman Empire, the largest of its kind ever discovered in continental Europe.
LOOKING AHEAD TO NEXT MONTH
It’s worth noting that the Shanghai Gold Exchange will be closed until February 5th for the Lunar holiday. Expect the gold price to drift lower in Western markets to begin the month, as the typical trading pattern in China has been to bid gold higher.
We should also keep an eye on the “big picture” for silver. If the price manages to climb above $33/oz, it will likely lead to a significant breakout. Earlier this winter the metal did fall sharply after approaching $35/oz, however, so remaining patient will be important—especially when zooming out to appreciate silver’s multi-decade performance.
Another important development for the metals will be the aforementioned tariffs: how will America’s foreign partners (and her foreign adversaries) respond to threats of 25%, 50%, or even 100% tariffs on their exports? President Trump is expected to announce tariffs on Mexico and Canada, among other countries, sometime in February. This more aggressively protectionist stance toward trade and foreign relations may accelerate the global trend toward de-dollarization, as well as governments stockpiling gold and other commodities rather than holding large reserves of U.S. Treasury bonds.
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About The Author: Everett Millman is a market analyst with Gainesville Coins.