Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective. Today, another look at China’s Financial woes. (See the Economy & Finance section.)
Precious Metals:
Following Donald Trump’s election, the U.S. Dollar and stocks were up. Meanwhile, Bitcoin was up, and precious metals were down, in Dollar terms. Because the Federal budget deficit is continuing to grow, the long-term prospects for the U.S. Dollar are dour. I anticipate that gold, silver, and platinum will continue to be seen as safe havens. Siver’s recent dip below $31.30 should be seen as a buying opportunity. Spot silver was at $32.12 on Thursday evening (Friday A.M., in Asian trading.) I consider that a “buy”, at that price. – JWR
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Year-end and 2025 gold forecast: $3,000 and possibly beyond.
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At Gold-Eagle.com: Goldman Sachs: Central Bank Demand Has Reset Gold’s Price Levels.
Economy & Finance:
China’s central bank said on Sunday it would tell banks to lower mortgage rates.
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China’s central bank injects cash via new outright reverse repos in October. JWR’s Comment: When China’s banking collapse finally comes, it will likely trigger a global recession, or possibly a depression.
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Thursday’s headline: Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by a quarter point.
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Republican Victory Lifts Dollar, U.S. Equities, and 10-Year Treasury Yield Sharply.
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From Reuters: US budget deficit tops $1.8 trillion in fiscal 2024, third-largest on record.
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A chart over at X/Twitter: Federal debt explodes, rising $105 billion on just the last day of Oct, hitting new record high: $35.952 trillion The debt has now risen $487 billion in one month.
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This chart from the St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank tells part of the story: Federal Debt: Total Public Debt.
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Is a Global Recession Looming in 2024?
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Berkshire Hathaway’s cash fortress tops $300 billion as Buffett sells more stock, freezes buybacks.
Commodities:
Conveniently, just before the U.S. presidential election: OPEC Lifts October Production Ahead of Planned Production Hikes.
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2025 Predictions in Agriculture: Farm for Value, Not Just Volume.
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Battery raw materials market update October 2024.
Regulation and Taxes:
An Important Reminder: As I warned SurvivalBlog readers back in January, 2024, there is a new regulatory requirement: FINCEN’s Business Owner Reporting regulations will go into effect on January 1st, 2025. Before that date, most businesses — including even small home-based ones — are required to file their registration/disclosure paperwork online. Only online. Failure to do so could result in fines of up to $500 per day. Yes, the regulations appear unconstitutional, but there seems to be no way around them!
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From the leftist ABC News: Trump proposes eliminating the income tax. Here’s what experts think.
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The Cost of Federal Regulations.
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Fidelity: 2024 and 2025 tax brackets and federal income tax rates.
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Taxes: Where do Trump and Harris stand?
Forex & Cryptos:
Nick Giambruno: Is the Dollar Collapsing? 7 Key Indicators You Can’t Ignore.
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At Currency Thoughts: Rate Cuts in the Dominican Republic and Colombia.
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Turkey’s long hard struggle with inflation.
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Argentina Economic Outlook. October 2024.
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Bitcoin vs CBDCs & The Spiritual Battle for the Soul of Humanity.
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Billions in FTX assets set to reenter crypto market just as new regulations take hold.
Tangibles Investing:
D.S.V. spotted this: 10 Things You Should Always Buy at an Estate Sale If You Spot Them.
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Swiss watch exports plunge as Chinese demand dries up.
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2024 Farmland Market Trends At-A-Glance.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. Thanks!