Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. Most of these items are from JWR’s “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective. Today, we look at the continuing stagflation threat. (See the Economy & Finance section.)
Precious Metals:
Michael Pento, at Gold-Eagle.com: Four Reasons Why The January Rally Will Falter.
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Gold Forecast: Temporary Correction Followed by a Breakout Above $2000.
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Gold Still in Stall, Looks Further to Fall.
Economy & Finance:
Stagflation looms large over developed markets in 2023. Here is an excerpt from the article’s opening:
“‘Recession’, instead of ‘stagflation’, has become the watchword in financial markets at the outset of 2023, as the global economic impact of the substantial interest rate hikes last year take effect in the first half of this year and inflation retreats.
But the threat of stagflation – stagnant growth and high inflation – remains alive and well, particularly in developed countries.
The problem is core inflation.
While we expect headline inflation, which includes fuel and food prices, to fall rapidly over the coming months, we disagree with the market’s view that core inflation will return to central bank target levels of around 2% soon in the developed world. Tight labour markets, sticky services inflation and improving growth dynamics in China are all factors that could keep core inflation rates higher, as economies come under recessionary pressure.”
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From USN&WR: Recession Odds Recede as Labor Market, Economy Show Surprising Strength.
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Britain Avoids Recession by Narrowest Margin During Strikes.
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ING Report: Euro Credit Supply: 2023 Supply forecasts.
Commodities:
Reader F.D. sent us this: US Plans 200% Tariff on Russia Aluminum as Soon as This Week.
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Vanguard: Market perspectives: February 2023. A key quote:
“We still assign a 90% probability to a U.S. recession over the course of 2023 and view a path to a soft landing as exceptionally narrow.”
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There isn’t enough copper in the world — and the shortage could last till 2030.
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From OilPrice News: Has Natural Gas Finally Bottomed Out?
Inflation Watch:
Fed’s Powell says job strength shows inflation fight may last ‘quite a bit of time’.
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A Fox News interview, linked over at the Whatfinger.com news aggregation site: Americans burn through pandemic savings as high inflation pinches. JWR’s Comment: A decline of $1 Trillion in savings does not bode well.
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The ‘Egg Crisis’ – Another Pseudo-Inflation Phenomenon.
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Surprise Used-Car Price Jump Adds to Fed’s Inflation Worries.
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What’s the Best New-Car Deal for February 2023? A quote:
“Unfortunately, several hurdles persist. Average new-car transaction prices continue to increase every month, reaching $46,437 in January — up 4% from a year prior. Meanwhile, auto loan interest rates are also on the rise, averaging 6.8% for January — an increase of 2.64% from the same time a year ago.”
Forex & Cryptos:
South Africa: Why the rand is weak right now.
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At Currency Thoughts: Inflation and Industrial Production Headline Busy Day of Data Releases and Central Bank News.
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By way of Zero Hedge: Operation Choke Point 2.0 Is Underway, And Crypto Is In Its Crosshairs.
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Long-term Bitcoin holders at all-time high, but price not cooperating.
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Bitcoin Bear Market Back Or Slight Correction? Here’s What’s Going On.
Tangibles Investing:
Swatch Group Raises Prices For Omega SpeedMaster Watches, Following Rolex’s Lead
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2023’s Housing Correction Could Be The Largest Since Post-WWII.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. Thanks!