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17 Comments

  1. I’m a very visual learner, 80% visual and 20% reading (Total Participant Involvement, an NRA instructor phrase). When you’re talking about the dot matrix

    “My “dot chart” analysis shows that more than 60-70% of the time we are home (“A” plan) or have our car/truck (“B” plan”

    I would find it greatly helpful to see what you have. Of course maybe you’re writing a book and don’t want to reveal that at this time?

    I’m liking what I’m reading because we both have analytical minds.

  2. I take great comfort in knowing there are others out there just as geeky as we. My husband keeps spreads sheets on the contents of the deep freezers & other stores. I graph garden production.

    Nice series. Looking forward to more.

  3. T.R.,
    I am one of those individuals who believe it is likely Mike Tyson was put on this earth for no other reason than to utter the words, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”. It has been my experience that the more complex, structured, and minutiae-filled those plans are, the more likely it is that the participant involved will mentally disintegrate when they are forced to abandon those plans.
    I have read both of your installments separately and collectively, and while they are technically and analytically brilliant, if you can manage to keep your A’s, B’s, C’s, D’s, and dot charts together as civilized society crumbles around you, you have nothing to fear.
    If you are truly interested in discovering your mental and physical thresholds during a time of apocalyptic crisis, forgo the oatmeal and pancake camping trips and use your vacation to attend a true backwoods survival school or hike the AT for a month out of a backpack. Everyone’s a winner on paper and spreadsheet.
    Thanks for sharing and looking forward to the future installments.

    1. Thanks for reading and critically thinking DD. I think mike Tyson also took a bite out of another boxer’s ear one time too. You make a good point.

      Oatmeal vs pancakes is both a humorous actual preference and (at the same time) a metaphor for making decisions based on performance based attributes (eg complex carbs, paleo, etc).

      Yes agreed. Some of the choices articulated will certainly be overrun by the circumstances that dictate at the time.

    2. I kinda get this feeling as well. Plans are great until they are not. Pretty much anything short of a grid-down scenario will be short term and survivable, so I choose to focus on the worst-case scenario.

      If the grid goes down it won’t take long for most people to realize it and act accordingly. Getting out of the city is a given but country roads have their own dangers. Isolation, lawlessness, and roadblocks that will surely go up quickly.

      Travel at night will be out of the question so you will be hunkering down wherever you happen to be when the sun goes down…not a good situation. If someone disables your vehicle by causing flat tires you are also stuck in a hostile environment. Everything will be dependent on whether you are willing to bug out prior to the event or immediately after. If you lose 6 hours loading your vehicle, that gives you 6 hours less time to get away.

      Overplanning may lead to arguments, headaches, and missing potentially critical aspects of your needs if you are in a hurry. It can cause valuable time to be wasted and may hinder your escape.

      1. The converse is of course under-planning, which could result in leaving town with inappropriate supplies, or missing the safe window for departure entirely. I’m all in favor of having “go-bags” packed, and color-coded priority tags.

      2. Randy, yes. We have a different plan for “worst case” scenario. Meanwhile, we hope to get our “bug out” time wound tight with practice (not sure we can get to an hour/90 minutes but probably close in the next iteration). I think a key lesson from “Patriots” and “Survivors” is the timing of your departure has consequences. Stay well.

  5. I too have enjoyed this series and again it proves to me staying put in 80% of the time is the best strategy.

    The moment you leave your home in plan B or C, you have Abandon much of your primary gear. You are now a moving target with limited stores of fuel and water.

    1. Guy, agree, my husband loves your quote too. We expect that plan(s) will change dramatically based on the circumstances. Your point shapes a thesis that would suggest plan elements (or tools) that have optionality per unit of weight or cost should be strong decisions factors around gear and food since the plan does actually change.

      Some of my article was intended to illustrate iterative learning on how much time it takes to pack and then our efforts to cut that in half and then in half again, rather than telling any one else that they should do the same or not the same.

      1. Didn’t mean to sound critical.
        You’re posting some great stuff.
        That quote being valid, we still need to plan.
        I think I was inspired by the Mike Tyson quote.

        And this:
        “Failing to plan is planning to fail.”
        ;^)

  7. So I am impressed that you guys are putting your plans under a stress test. I applaud you. I wish my wife was as into prepping as you seem to be. Looking forward to your next article.

  8. T.R.,

    My husband is from Central Florida and I have lived in South Florida. Therefore, we bought our retreat property in Texas, at the southern edge of the Panhandle. We are at least half an hour from the nearest towns and two hours from the nearest cities. Remote without being primitive.

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