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1. If you really read a lot of what passes for economic analysis in the prepping community it’s hard to escape the conclusion that many of us want something terrible to happen, so we can be proven to have been right. Also, many preppers don’t like our economic system and want it to crash. There’s a barely suppressed glee about the slowly increasing potential for another global financial crisis.

   While this bias is easily understood, it’s not helpful in convincing others and leading us to make appropriate plans. One small example of this is the writing about the “yield curve,” which is the structure of interest rates on bonds of different maturities. Under normal circumstances, the longer the maturity of the bond, the higher the rate of interest, which is appropriate since the bond owner has lent money for a longer period of time, which involves more risk. When the yield curve “inverts,” longer maturity bond interest rates are lower than shorter maturity rates, which begins to produce serious economic distortions. Interest rates are the prices of money, and play an extremely important economic role.

   What many writers either don’t understand or don’t bother to include in their work is that, while an inverted yield curve is usually a precursor to a recession, the inversion has to last at least a couple of weeks, the 10 year-2 year rate comparison is the most important, and, most importantly, an inverted yield curve historically has suggested a recession is 6-18 months away, not imminent.

   I would love to get through life with all my preps having been unused!

   1. A very cogent observation. I don’t claim to be any sort of economist, but I have witnessed over the years so many false claims about the sky falling that I now generally ignore them. These fake “analysts” scream that the sky is falling all the while cashing in. Its an old scam called The Rainmaker. A guy tells you if you pay him, he can make it rain. So you pay him. If and when it rains he takes the credit, if and when it doesn’t he finds a reason for you to pay him more. Here’s my thoughts. In this environment, no one, and I mean NO ONE, can accurately predict the markets movements. I don’t like our current system, but I sure hope it holds up, because recessions, depressions, and downturns are miserable experiences. Until then, it is merely prudent to judiciously prepare for any number of scenarios, without being Rainmade.

      1. “There are two times in a man’s life when he should not speculate: when he can’t afford it, and when he can.”

         ― Mark Twain

         Carry on

   2. Nice. Reasoned, calm, accurate. And @Jason as well. I would also add that every recession, in hind sight, has been accompanied by a recent (6 to 18 months prior) inverted yield curve, but, not every yield curve inversion has been followed by a recession. The correlation between a yield curve inversion and a recession to follow has been increasing and this may be a function of an overly active Fed and Federal Government trying to “fix” the natural cycles in economies and markets.

      In general I would say that the economic and market cycles are healthy. Companies, and whole industries go bust. This, although painful at the time, is a good thing. I frankly, am glad that we no longer use the horse and buggy as primary transport (although I do admire the Amish) and I hope for the day that the processed, chemical laden food industry ends, with a whimper or a bang, I do not care. The notion that the economy and markets should be steady is a total lie from those who seek control and this lie has bleed over into the general public’s expectations of markets and economies and further has lead to the sensationalism of headlines. If a poorly run or no longer needed company or industry goes bust, GOOD! Invest in it’s replacement early. Right? Buy low, sell high. When greed gets out of hand and bubbles form let the gamblers go bust. By attempting to prevent sector or industry specific bubbles from popping, the ‘economists’ only inflate everything into a larger bubble. Let the little bubbles break, let it hurt in the short run as reasoned fear is a healthy thing in market makers and investors.

   3. Except when the lender is considered so safe, that it is considered a safe deposit.
      You want from us the favor of loaning from you – how do you pay for the Privilege.

2. What is D-Day provenance? That it was used on D-Day?

   How, exactly, does one confirm such a thing? Guns used in well known battles are worth a ton more, it seems.

   1. Provenance is usually in the form of factory letters, military records, and letters written by the original owners. This is particularly difficult for a weapon that was issued to a military member, and then brought home by them, since a provenance letter written by them would essentially be an admission of guilt — i.e. theft of U.S. military property. Captured guns (“war trophies”) are usually easier to document, since there were official forms issued, and intended to be kept with those guns, indefinitely.

3. There has been a recession very roughly every 8 to 10 years of my adult life. Surprisingly regular actually. Prior to that it appears from my reading of history that they were a bit more frequent.

   I suspect we may be due for another one, however there are herculean efforts in place to delay it. It remains to be seen if it will be delayed or if it is even wise to delay it. Recessions seem to be natural economic events that may even be healthy for the economy over all.

   The first reading I ever did on the big “Economic Reset” was “How To Prepare For The Coming Crash” published in 1972. I think I read it when I was about 12 or 13 years old in probably 1974 or 1975. It has been so long that I don’t remember if it was in that book or not but I was also introduced to the Rothchilds, etc. about then.

   Although I read every one of his articles, Brandon Smith’s articles are mostly old news and are a bit like Astrology to me. Looking to the alignment of the stars to predict the future in a very unpredictable and sometimes dangerous world. I hear chicken bones are pretty good for that too.

   The “Big One” is coming. The “Big Economic Reset”. The “Revolution” (good one or bad one). The “Big Earthquake”. The “Big War”. The “End of the US”. The “Big Storm”. The “Big Fire”. The “Big Asteroid”. All coming and more. History says that it always has and there is no indication that will change.

   My exposure to doomsday prediction has made me cautious and I think on the balance that has been a good thing. I have avoided a lot of heart ache that I have seen others endure from being cavalier about things from assuming nothing bad will ever come. Particularly finances but other things as well.

   But I would say trying to actually predict this stuff is mostly a fool’s errand. Better to just take all the time spent researching what the global banking cartel is doing and use it to work on getting your wood supply in, your water supply secured, your garden improved, your fitness improved, your shooting improved, etc. And pay things off.

   Will I do this? Not 100%. Because I too will continue to try and peer into that murky mire called the future. Just like all humans have always done. And I will continue to read Brandon Smith and see if he has something new to say that might redirect me into another course of action than the one I am on.

4. “JWR’s Comment: We are still witnessing an over-valued market.”

   Especially in small cap companies which are a key driver of growth and indicator of market direction within an otherwise healthy market. Decide for yourself if the market is, otherwise healthy. Unless small caps show some signs of life I would be cautious as well, not that anybody cares what I think.

5. My lowly two cents: What we are witnessing in US economic policy is the divorce between Wall Street and Main Street where Main Street wins. Most “economic models” in recent history do not apply. They do not apply because they are based on the performance of Wall Street. Please don’t jump all over me. I can only say what I know to be true on the ground in Main Street. If we are able to experience a total divorce, then it matters not what happens to Wall Street. Which fits in with the “prepper” mindset of being self-sufficient and independent. One would think everyone would be jumping for joy at the opportunity to not have one’s life ravaged by the Powers That Be: A one world (global) government and economy where someone else decides what you can and can’t have, which leaves one defenseless. #MAGA

6. RE: M1A1 I acquired my M1A1 from my next door neighbor when he learned of my moving away to the redoubt region as kinda a going away gift and he told me of how he came across it. He was special OPS in the Vietnam war and upon his exit of that area his CO had gifted it to him.
   I feel very honored to have received it from him and although i don’t shoot it very often. When i do it still works fine and of course there are always the fond memories of the one who had passed it on to me.

7. I have long felt that the M1 carbine, it its various forms (including the uncommon M2 variant), were underappreciated. Light weight, reasonable accuracy, durability, history and easy recoil make it a keeper in my opinion.

8. I purchased my current M1 carbine for about $200. It does have an importation stamp on it. Everybody used to say that the importation marking made its value less. Well seeing is believing and I saw 4 M1 carbines with only ONE NOT having an importation marking on it. The non import marked carbine was priced at $1599 while the others with stamps were $1400. I have been considering selling mine but it is such a great little rifle especially for wife and daughter. I really have to think about it, it is in nice shape (compared to the ones with $1400 price tags) and with all the mags and ammo I could put away some other equipment and supplies. I just keep thinking what JWR just did with selling his HKs to change over to AR10’s in 308. I have 2 FALs for good shooter and the rest get AR’s in 5.56. The M-1 carbine was never a real “survival” gun for me, so I guess I just answered my own question about keeping it.

9. There will most assuredly be a recession. I doubt we will be able to predict the particular trigger. And that will be followed by a recovery just as spring follows winter. The key is to not leave your fanny hanging out at the wrong time frame. Each day, month and year I become more resilient. Sold some things to benefit from the bubble. Keeping other things to ride on the next downturn. To quote a friend, “sometimes the bulls make money and sometimes the bears make money. The pigs, however, are always slaughtered.”

10. Following with interest discussion of facebook and its entrance into fraud/fiat currency aka crypto currency. How much you want to bet use of this comes with the same left wing restrictions you find on Facebook and youtube e.g. no buying anything or dealing with anyone that isn’t approved by the social justice warriors?
    Facebook terms of service now ban want to buy listings. Interesting. Wonder if FB is getting ready to start monetizing ad placement.

    In other news I find that Walmart no longer carries flashlight bulbs — just cheap disposable made in China led junk flashlights. In fact nowhere except online — not even in big chain sporting goods stores.

    Agree market is overvalued — cashed in some of my gains and both tangible items to increase my readinesss.

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