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1. The Yield Curve seems like minutia but it’s important to understand. Like it or not you are stuck in this system to some extent or another.

   The yield curve inversion: When 1to3 month loan rates return a better interest rates than 5to10 year loans do. So, why would you make a 5 year investment when you can make your interest back in less than 3 months?

   With that background, read the conversation thread starting with “Justme”
   Jul 20, 2018 at 1:53 pm and read the first few replies and all the replies by the author of the Wolf Street article. (Tip of the hat JWR, for turning us on to this excellent site)

   I’ll say an inversion is not the end of the world. It likely (historically) means a regular old recession will ensue in the next several months. The problem is, as we all know, the trillions in debt. When lenders can’t make money and borrowers think short term the music essentially stops for bad loans. So, a “Black Swan”, is not really knowable before hand but generally, again, as we all know, an event lurks in this global debt bubble.

   Watch Germany. I’ve said here before that Deutsch Bank has likely major problems and they may be systemic globally. Also, investors and traders are betting that we win the “Trade War” with china. The China stock markets have been driving down hard while the US is flat to up. This is the evidence.

   I don’t fear a mild recession and we are due, but the question is, what lurks under the surface of the various bubbles and money centers?

2. History suggests that when the 10 yr/2 yr US Treasury yield gap inverts (goes negative), a recession will start in 12-18 months. The time frame is important because you shouldn’t panic when it happens.

   The 30 yr/10 yr US Treasury yield gap is lesser known but also important, because when 30 year Treasury bonds become less attractive then institutions that hold a lot of them: pension funds, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, etc. — are going to have to reallocate their portfolios. It also has spillover effects into the longer term corporate bond market.

   People like to pick on one piece of information and then project Armaggedon — but that’s usually not how things work. Take these indicators as just that — indicators, not inevitable causes of disaster.

3. Contrary to the “Five Questions To Ask Yourself Before Buying Precious Metals” article, I would recommend that you buy pre-1965 US silver coinage from your local coin store. DON’T keep it in someone else’s vault! Estimate the ‘multiplier’ based on the current spot price from a site like http://www.kitco.com. Multiply the spot price times 0.715 which will yield the multiplier.

   For example: Let’s say today’s spot price is $16.25 per ounce. 16.25 x 0.715 = 11.62

   11.62 is the multiplier, so $1.00 face value of pre-1965 “junk silver” US coinage (for example 4 silver quarters) is worth $11.62, and $2.00 is worth $23.24. Therefore a silver dime is worth $1.16 and a silver quarter is $2.91.

   The dealer has overhead costs and it is reasonable for him to charge slightly more than this (particularly if he bought it at a higher amount), so don’t begrudge him from making a small profit. My dealer usually sticks to multipliers like 11.5 or 12.

   Most coin dealers only take cash which is better for you since you probably don’t want a paper trail. Get in the habit of buying a small amount each payday, and before you know it, you’ll have a nice little nest egg.

   Most importantly, don’t mention it to ANYBODY!!!

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