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Interesting to consider the trajectory of nuke proliferation since the end of the Cold War. Once upon a time, we all agreed that the proliferation beyond major Cold War entities would simply not be allowed. Couldnt happen – wouldn’t happen.
Then China got the bomb. Ok, now they get “major power” status, too. Then the Indians got the bomb. Then Pakistan, despite having ‘no nuclear program of record’, got the bomb, too (hmmmm….where’d that baby come from?!?……). Then North Korea got the bomb…..
Now, whether or not Iran currently has the bomb, does anyone seriously doubt they’ll eventually get it? And once they do, what are the chances it finds its way into non-state party hands?….
I’d say ahout 99.99% that weapon will be used at some point in our lifetimes. That may not be “the end of the world”, but it will most certainly be TEOTWAWKI.