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A very intriguing assessment.
Worry when China creates a Bond market. I estimate that may happen in 2022-2025.
Until then, the world will not flee the US Dollar.
We have been in a trade war for over 50 years. Other countries have taken advantage of us including our best friend forever Canada. What we are seeing today is ONLY the US finally recognizing we are in a trade war and we are setting the terms for peace. If you (all the countries that have tariffs on our goods and sell into our market) don’t reduce or eliminate your tariffs and trade restrictions on our goods than we will reciprocate and you will lose the lucrative American market. Additionally our leaders have foolishly allowed us to become dependent on other countries and long supply lines for the essential strategic goods that we must have to insure our safety. This must be reversed. We must manufacture at least 50% of the steel and aluminum we need and have the reserve capability to manufacture 100% with very short notice. Ditto for a couple dozen or so other strategic materials and goods.
Trump is playing the game right. Threaten with real and believable consequences and then agree to renegotiate trade deals. We can’t bluff this. We must be prepared to follow through. Everyone of our major trading partners needs us more than we need them. If we have a trade war with any or all of the other countries it will be an inconvenience for us and a disaster for them. So they will come to the table, unless our congress undercuts Trump and the citizens in their desire to keep the swamp in power.
Don´t Forget to take into account the Money th US makes with Services, especially in the Finance and Internet Sektor.
Then the Picture might look a bit different.
The solution could be to produce goods in the Kind and good Quality we want, you will not sell much to us.
There seems to be a lot of disjointed info in this article but if the author is only trying to say that a long drawn out trade war is bad for U. S. consumers well — Ok I can go along with that. Old folks remember how expensive consumer goods were in the seventy’s when they were made in out of date U.S. factories and sold in Mom & Pop stores downtown. However, equalizing import/export rules and intellectual property protections, along with America’s newfound abundance of cheap oil and gas could reinvigorate U.S. manufacturing. With a more equal playing field, cheap fuel, modern plants and the new marketing systems (internet communications) the U. S. has a chance to successfully compete with any country, even China. The only way America can save itself and the world from an International monetary system controlled by an egomaniacal tyrant (be it an individual, a self appointed Board of Directors, or an International Council) is to always be strong economically. In the 90’s there was an old adage that said “In business as in life, you don’t get what you deserve, you get what you negotiate”. Hopefully Trump, always the negotiator, can get us a deal that will make it all possible without sending us over the edge, but Brinksmanship is always a dangerous game!
All the Fed and Euro games will be moot once the inflation gets hyper as a medium of exchange that is marked by less and less confidence. Day to day living may just get very sketchy as buying gas, groceries, or anything of value becomes a mathematical exercise (a losing exercise) trying to establish the dollar or euro’s worth. When you see those signs at consumer businesses, no credit, no debit, no EBT, all cash transactions, and then signs demanding hard currency only,(gold, silver, etc.) you will know that time and mathematics has finally destroyed ordinary peoples confidence in greenbacks/euros.
We will win a trade war, because we have the natural resources to do so.
Ultimately, I think the value of a nations currency will become dependent on it’s natural resources and ability to turn them into marketable products.
The more we manufacture in house, the less we’re dependent on other countries, and that’s a very good thing.
Lets not forget all the regulations being cut here at home. For far too long heavy handed EPA regs and mandates have stunted and killed off domestic production. We have rare earth elements here at home and don’t need to get them from places like China. The problem being the regulations that make it next to impossible to mine/produce them.
Will we feel pain in leveling the playing field? Yes, but we need to be willing to take our medicine and fix this problem now while we have a chance. We don’t need Globalism. Globalism needs us. We need to quit playing their game and restore our economic sovereignty.
Imagine for a moment that your last name is Rothschild or any one of the families that purportedly control a majority of the world’s finances and resources. For years you have been able to convince the citizens of the planet to willingly surrender their money in the form of taxes and interest, persuaded them to send their own children to fight, bleed, and die in petty wars that you have dreamed up to further your own agenda and fatten your own coffers. Now why would you completely collapse a system that has allowed you to effectively rule the world?
You wouldn’t, and neither will they. If there is anything to be learned from the “history repeats” mantra it is that a collapse will only be allowed to their benefit of a time and duration of their choosing. They will buy up whatever is left that they don’t own, for pennies on the dollar, euro, or pound, and re-inflate the bubble once again. They can do this with impunity because time and time again, under the threat of some boogeyman that they have concocted, we willfully surrender our blood and treasure.
There will be no dumping of King Dollar because we have the military means to destroy anyone that tries. Dump US debt? “Owe the bank $100,000, you have a problem. Owe the bank $1 Trillion, the bank has a problem.” Just a slow, grinding, decay far into the future.
“it’s never gonna get any better, it’s never gonna be fixed, be happy with what you got…because the owners of this country don’t want that…forget the politicians, the politicians are put there to give you the idea that you have the freedom of choice…you don’t, you have no choice, you have owners, they own you, they own everything…it’s a big club, and you ain’t in it…”-George Carlin
I have read about the pending doom of the US for decades upon decades nowguess what, my dollars still buy me what I need. They are desired by other nations when one travels.
When I was in Canada a few years ago they would not take a Euro but American cash, yes!
However I have noticed this “fear trade” must be working since it never ends. There is new authors since the old ones die but the same fear keeps going. The dollar is going to crash, stocks will crash, gold will be $700,(Harry Dent).
Just read Revelations. That will be the time global systems will crash.
Being a devotee of Ron Paul and Austrian economics, I tend to view this supposed trade war a bit differently. We are a signatory of NAFTA, ostensibly a free trade agreement. It doesn’t take thousands of pages of rules and regulations to have free, mutually beneficial trade between countries. NAFTA has something like 3000 pages of such rules and regulations. Those rules and regulations support the easy access to our markets for Canada and Mexico, they grossly inhibit our access to their markets. That is not free trade, period.
Every trade agreement we are a signatory to, especially those multilateral trade agreements like NAFTA and GATT and the recently defunct TPP, leaves us subsidizing the economies of countries all over the world.
As the great Dr. Paul has stated over and over again, show me in the Constitution where the States granted the authority to the Federal government to confiscate the treasure of the American people, the citizens of the States, and transfer that treasure to any state that is not one of these united States. So where does the Fed think they have the right to subsidize any foreign nation, period? It isn’t there, it does not exist.
Show me in the Constitution where the States granted the authority to the Federal government to spend the treasure of our citizens and the blood of our citizens, our mothers and fathers and brothers and sisters and sons and daughters, in defense of any state that is not one of these united States of America. It isn’t there, it does not exist.
So I’m with Trump on the trade renegotiation. Cancel the multilateral trade agreements that always seem to include defending some other country with our blood and treasure. Make many mutually beneficial bilateral trade agreements. That is how we get to the win-win scenario in trade. Thank you Mr. Trump, stick to your guns.
Just remember, the uSA (intentional) is one of the few countries in the world that can successfully internalize commerce. The rest of the world actually does need us more than we need them.
I remember reading somewhere – Without Walmart there would be no middle class and without China there would be no Walmart! It is sad and true. I clearly remember all the mom and pop stores and how they bleed you for every cent. Now Amazon brings competitive prices to everyone and you don’t have to waste time and gas hoping they have what you need.
The only sure loser in a trade war is the average American. All those well paid blue collar jobs are history and they are not coming back! If it is not a foreigner then it will be someone with advanced skills running robots! That is the way it is and it is only going to get worse.
This is a global problem! Low skilled jobs move to areas of cheap labor or are replaced with automation. When one man can do the work of ten – What do you do with the other nine?
All this is a huge problem, but it is our currency and [government] spending that will take us down and leave us in poverty!
Sad stuff. Very sad stuff. No hope.