Here are the latest items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. And it bears mention that most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of JWR. (SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor.) Today’s focus is on investing in antique radios. (See the Tangibles section, near the end of this column.)
Precious Metals:
First off, both silver and gold jumped last week, as the headlines were filled with fears about possible nuclear war with North Korea. I hope that you bought low.
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Next, from Hub Moolman: Silver Price Forecast: Silver Boom Time?
Stocks:
Jim Rogers says the ‘biggest crisis in his life’ is less than a year away.
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World’s Top Stock Market Really Just a Handful of Top Stocks.
Commodities:
Metals: Prices Remain Upbeat, Even as Geopolitical Tensions Pick Up.
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Oil Price Forecast 2017 – 2040
Forex:
Next, to many of you, the following might sound like I’m harping on this topic. But think this through, folks: President DJT wants a weaker Dollar. I suspect that a target of a further 6% to 10% Dollar decline is his goal. The weaker U.S. Dollar will do more that just boost exports. It will also encourage investment in U.S. stocks by foreigners. (They have the opportunity to buy stock with relatively cheap Dollars.) I recommend hedging into some select foreign currencies, particularly the Swiss Franc (CHF).
You don’t need to open a Forex account or buy physical currency (bills) at an airport. Anyone who regularly keeps a positive balance in their PayPal account can parlay any or all that into CHF. It takes just a few clicks of a mouse. (After clicking on “Money”, under “Manage Currencies” just click on “Select New Currency” and then do the positive balance transfer.) Yes, there will be a fee charged. But at least you will thereby be limiting your downside exposure to the Dollar. I predict that 2018 will be a year of sharp declines in the USD in the Forex market. We could see the US Dollar Index (USDI) in the low 80s or even the high 70s range. That would happen if the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve “overshoot” their goal. Be ready for it. Hedge!
Economy and Finance:
On to a book recommendation. There is a free e-book available that is worth reading. It is titled: Quantum Money: A web-based system of money and credit. This is a well-written treatise. (It is also available in hard copy.) My only quibble is that the authors seem to fall into the trap of assuming that government should have some role in fulfilling the Social Contract. (It shouldn’t–that is how the systematic and sanctioned looting of our wallets gets started. Private voluntary charity–rather than government coerced taxation and welfare programs–should be the mechanism for redistributing wealth.)
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And over at Zero Hedge: 10 Years Ago Today Money Markets Seized Up, The ECB Bailed Out BNP Paribas, And The Crisis Started
Derivatives:
Moving on to the derivatives casino, there is this: CBOE plans to launch bitcoin futures, announces agreement with Winklevoss brothers’ digital currency exchange
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Also, consider this: Lynette Zang: Legacy Derivatives Will Implode the System
Troubling Trends:
Alan Greenspan: The bubble is in bonds, not stocks. JWR’s Comment: Most of all, don’t trust everything Mr. Magoo says.
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Robert Shiller: Let this be your final warning on U.S. stocks’ overvaluation
Tangibles Investing:
Finally, one tangible that I’m particularly fond of investing in is antique radios. I concentrate on buying vacuum tube superheterodyne radios made from the late 1930s to the early 1960s, with vernier scale tuners. (Any earlier ones have inferior tuners. And any later ones incorporate transistors, making them more vulnerable to EMP.)
Over the years, I’ve posted a few pieces in SurvivalBlog extolling the virtues of antique radios. These include: EMP resistance, eye-pleasing design, warm audio tone, ease of repair, and that indefinable “cool” factor. There is something about sitting in the glow of a big Zenith dial and tuning in the world on shortwave. That is a unique and truly memorable experience. I pity the poor Millennial kids who have never basked in that warm glow.
But the old tube radios do have some drawbacks. Among these: Bulkiness, the dwindling supply of spare vacuum tubes, high current draw, and the risk of band re-allocation by FCC decree. Already, the “Police Band” marked on many old radios is no longer used by police departments. Even the “modern” FM broadcast band as we now know it is becoming and Endangered Species. Antique television collectors were dealt an almost mortal blow, with the advent of the HDTV frequency allocations. So if it were not for TV converter boxes, they would now have almost completely useless collections with dramatically diminished resale value.
Buy Them Restored!
Most noteworthy, if you want to get into collecting antique radios, then I recommend that you ONLY buy radios that have already been restored. Typically this involves replacing any old electrolytic capacitors, replacing the power cord, testing and replacing tubes, and realigning the tuning with the aid of an oscilloscope. The only exception to my “buy restored” rule would be if you are already an electronics tinkerer with your own tube tester and o-scope.
For preppers, All American Five and All American Six tube radios make the most sense. (Because they have no transformers, they can be run of 120 volt DC power.) Of these, the Hallicrafters S-38E and S-38EM are my favorites. Crucially, they have bandspread tuning and a Beat Frequency Oscillator (BFO) “CW” mode. These allow you to hear Morse Code as tones and also allow intelligible reception of single sideband (SSB) conversations.
For long term collector appeal, the Zenith brand is well,… the zenith of antique radios. You can’t go wrong buying multi-band Zenith radios. The Sparton brand is also quite sought after by collectors. It seems like many collectors focus on radios with Art Deco style cabinets. The gorgeous Sparton Nocturne ($90,000+ at auction) is perhaps the most sought after Art Deco model. Others look for radios with early synthetic (“Bakelite”) cabinets. Whichever antique radios you choose, buy both quality and exceptional cosmetic condition. And again, be sure buy restored radios. Hence, those will give you the best chance of big gains in resale value.
As with all other collectibles: Do your homework before you buy, and don’t let your emotions overcome you–especially when bidding on eBay.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. So please see our Provisos page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form.) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who particularly watch individual markets. And due to their diligence and focus, we benefit from fresh “on target” investing news. We often “get the scoop” on economic and investing news that is probably ignored (or reported late) by mainstream American news outlets. Thanks!
Good post on radios JWR! They’re also highly functional. A properly tuned 1950’s tube radio with updated components allows me to listen to foreign news station broadcasts in English. My biggest challenge has been finding experts who repair or restore these radios. None seem to be able to answer their emails or return calls. Do you or any other SB readers have recommendations for competent tube radio repair professionals? I’d like to start with a S38E refurbish and then move up from there. It’s disheartening to buy these radios and then not be able to find competent repair services.
1) No offense, but whenever I hear about collectibles I am reminded of Avery in “The Mandibles” burning through her limited cash going on a buying splurge to buy hinges, Gorilla Glue, etc at the hardware store. Although that partially worked out in the end.
2) After a crash, collectibles have value mainly to wealthy foreign buyers — who know they have the upper hand over starving sellers and will thus drive the price of the antique down to a chocolate bar. We did the same in occupied Germany after WWII.
3) To get a decent price you will need to transport the collectible overseas to a thriving economy.
And I somehow think that if the USA goes down we will pull everyone else down with us — look at GDP sizes and trade flows.
4) Farm land, farm tools, seed, fertilizer and International tractor parts seem a better investment, IMO. Plus the farmers of Pennsylvania know that you can generate an instant “antique” by leaving a used hand tool out in the rain and then rubbing on some dirty motor oil. Lancaster, PA’s Amish practically have an industry selling to the rubes from Philadelphia.
1) Re the dollar falling, I would note that it is the creditors, not the borrower, who ultimately set the interest rate.
2) Given that our NIIP — our net debt to foreigners minus what they owe to us — soared through the roof under Obama, I think we need to keep an eye on what the foreigners want. In January 2011 our NIIP was a MINUS $2.5 Trillion — it has since soared to a MINUS $8.3 TRILLION –over 40 percent of our GDP.
https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/international/intinv/2017/intinv117.htm
Yes — our lying news media is keeping very quiet about that.
Just as they are keeping quiet about the SHORT term financing of the federal debt — 3 month to 2 year Treasuries that have to be constantly refinanced in auctions.
3) The REASON , IMO, who foreigners are happy to buy into the US — real estate as well as Treasuries — is Safety. We still have lots of nukes, the world’s most powerful military and the Atlantic/Pacific Oceans as moats.
4) So hinting at limited thermonuclear war with North Korea is a good way to keep the foreign money flowing IN — not out. Maybe one reason why Obama rebooted the Cold War with nuclear armed Russia — although Exxon/Chevron’s $50 billion investment in the Caspian Sea oil deposits and Turkmenistan’s massive natural gas deposits probably were a larger factor.
PS Foreigners also send money into the USA because they know that if we fall, we will take everyone else down with us.
EU trade with US and Asia’s trade with US is far larger than trade between themselves, EU depends upon US NATO forces for protection and everyone depends upon the US Navy to keep the sea lanes open and and the massive transport ships moving and safe.
US GDP is still the world’s largest and New York is still the premier financial center.
International Finance as a bank robbery with terrified hostages, no police — and we have the gun.
Of course, the hostages have a lot of motivation to change that situation.
The ability to simply exchange USD to Swiss Franc. Sure enough, I went into PayPal and with a couple clicks exchanged 100 USD for 93.79 CHF.
I’d love to hear the pros and cons of from JWR or HJL (or viewers). If pro-CHF, what are your thoughts on % asset allocation?
I wouldn’t hedge more than 5% of my liquid wealth into Swiss Francs. Currencies can be manipulated and these days NONE of them are officially redeemable into specie. They are simply a hedge on the declining US Dollar. The big gamble: Which country’s currency will hold it’s value the best? This is an imponderable. But it is worth it to hedge a bit.
Regarding antique radios — speaking as a long time ham and restorer — The All American 5 radios are, improperly repaired, dangerous. Not using a transformer means there’s some chance the chassis can be “hot” leading to a deadly shock. If you plan to have these they need to be properly repaired and/or run with an isolation transformer.
The S38E is an average performer at best. These were made as entry level radios in the 1950s. Like National SW-54. No comparison to a Hammarlund SP-600 or similar like Collins 51J-4.
For investment purposes something like a Collins holds up much better, An S38E is usually $40 or $50 if that.
There really are no repair services — except for name brands like Collins. If you find someone expect to pay $50 to $100 an hour. They don’t answer their emails because they already have all the work they want or can handle. Most of these guys are semi-retired or fully retired and do this for some extra income.
You are much better off, for prepping purposes, buying a new radio and properly storing in an EMP proof environment. As an investment radios are truly one of the last things I’d invest in. The value is actually decreasing, in most cases, since the people who can work on them are mostly very elderly or dead. If you want to find good value for ham radios try qth.com and avoid ebay. Very overpriced.
Hi Jim, that is a nice looking S38 I have one but the sinsitivity is way down and the paint is very bad.. I think I need to do more work on it. I was reading anonymous piece above, and I find these old radios for $5 here at ham swaps. I get them now and then and fix them up to give to youngsters. one thing the gentleman is not taking into account is represented in you book survivor I believe quite well. They(the old S38,s etc work on AC or DC 110v. For me it’s fun to get them cheap, fix them up and give them away. Oh, I love the SP-600, AND 51j,R-390, R-388 they are wonderful radios, and can usually be made to play quite well. I have owned all of them and many others too at one time or another. I currently own some tube, and hybrid gear that all works well. I even keep several new radios in EMP enclosures all the time. and pull them out for SET,s to insure they are functioning well. My new FT-991, or FT-857 radios are wonderful. After many years using all the old gear, and now being able to afford new equipment of my fancy, I do prefer the new equipment. Now as for pricing on some of the old Collins gear, what is very interesting to me is that the value of a used KWM-2A, or R-390, or SP-600 is almost equal to what they were new in the 60’s and 70′ and the last production runs of the Collins KWM-2A in the mid 80’s were made in Japan, they were beautiful and sold for way over $2000 and still get close to that now. I currently have a working KWM-2 with a CP-1, PM-2 suit case, mm-1 312-B4 and collins dipole antenna kit. I love the gear, and love operating it. My prepper equipment I will keep. But anything that will bring in funds or trade for what I need when TSHTF is game for trade or sale. I am one of the ol’ guys who the gentleman is talking about who can still work on that stuff, especially the Collins gear. and Yes I fetch a good price to work on something I find it very pleasurable. I don’t advertise, because I am retired, and fishing is more important now. I do agree with him on one thing, never buy ham gear off of EBAY, it is way too expensive. QTH, or ham fests, or one of the is the best place to find gear. Usually gear from estates is the best value. And If I know who’s it was I will never quibble over a widow’s asking price. I may even purchase more gear just to help them out. A Lot of older guys like myself are going home to the Lord. If I know a widow, and she needs help getting gear sold I will help them in putting fair saleable prices on the equipment. And if possible help them sell it at swaps. One thing though, those of us who love working at keeping older gear working is more a labor of love, and giving it to a young person who is interested in the hobby is Passing on your passion to someone else. Blessings to all