Email a copy of 'July in Precious Metals, by Steven Cochran' to a friend
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With all due respect to Steven Cochran, who provides comprehensive and well-written analyses of short-term price action in gold, I suggest that survivalists should ignore all of it. It does not matter what affected the price of gold in the short term. That price is heavily manipulated in any event. What matters is that you should continue buying gold and silver, and if the price dips to any great extent, you should buy more. Precious metals are not investments, they’re life — and lifestyle — insurance. If/when TSHTF, prices will go up faster than you ever thought they would.
In my case, as an active technical trader, I try to avoid articles, opinions, etc. Silver has hit a technical and 30-year seasonal peak, hitting it’s head on its 4-month moving average on the MONTHLY chart. One of the secrets of successful swing (and even day traders) is that skilled traders study the WEEKLY and MONTHLY charts, in addition to real-time, minute-by-minute charts.
I’m now 100% short silver, due to its predictability. Remember: Until it can break its 50-month moving average, silver is going nowhere but down. Call it manipulation, whatever. I noticed just this morning (Aug. 4) that as soon as the NY NYMEX market opened, silver took a nosedive. This is a phenomena I’ve noticed since trading silver on paper.
If silver dives, that is not “going nowhere,” that is a good thing for us! We should be accumulators, NOT traders. I certainly hope Jerry is a successful trader, but for the rest of us drops in price are opportunities to buy more.
Well I’ll be buying more, too. I just might not be holding onto it that long. According to the 30-year average seasonal chart, look for a rally in silver starting literally on 1 NOV, and going until the end of APR.
Who knows. Between now and then, this could be the Mother of All Bottoms, IF silver can break above that 50-month moving average, sometime next year.
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?show=&insttype=Fund&symb=slv&x=52&y=8&time=9&startdate=1%2F4%2F1999&enddate=3%2F22%2F2016&freq=3&compidx=aaaaa%3A0&comptemptext=&comp=none&ma=1&maval=4%2C10%2C50&uf=0&lf=2&lf2=4&lf3=256&type=2&style=320&size=4&timeFrameToggle=false&compareToToggle=false&indicatorsToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=15
The problem with trading, FOR WHATEVER REASON, is that if a crisis occurs just after you have sold your gold or silver, you are screwed. If you’re trading metals to make money, that’s fine. But my point is that we shouldn’t confuse it with accumulating metals for a potential crisis.
I can make money in both directions in the market. I just like making money faster.
If things get really bad, I’ll just revert back to gun shows and flea markets, where the action (hopefully) will be hot once again.