JWR:
The recent letter about Alaska as a Retreat Locale brings up many good points, and I as an Alaskan certainly hope survival will be possible here if society collapses. But the trouble with predicting the future is that there’s no way to know how events are going to play out. The author assumes that oil will still flow, that there will still be an economy of sorts, and that the military will be friendly. These predictions might or might not be accurate.
The Alaska pipeline must have a flow rate of at least 70,000 barrels a day to remain viable, according to a recent study. That would require nineteen heaters along the pipe, at a greatly increased cost. Alaskans are already paying $3.50 to $10.00 per gallon for heating fuel in most of the state outside the Anchorage area. That can easily amount to $10,000 worth of fuel per winter! If the economy tanks, export of Alaska oil won’t happen because other countries can get it cheaper closer to home. And the small population of Alaska residents couldn’t support a giant pipeline that’s only flowing a trickle. Production costs would skyrocket. Residents won’t be able to afford fuel at three or four times the current price.
Alaska’s economy is based almost entirely on oil, government employee paychecks, and tourism. If any of these is interrupted, there will cease to be a viable economy. Eskimos, Bushrats and Sourdoughs might thrive when that happens, but everybody else will be in real trouble.
The military in Alaska is a two-edged sword. Their presence here provides protection from invasion. Nevertheless, history tells us that collapse of civil authority will quickly result in Martial law and military rule. That’s the way it was in Alaska in the nineteenth century, and indeed, in most of the American west at one time. Some soldiers were out surveying my street a while back with GPS and other equipment. I asked them what they were doing. They said they were mapping the whole area down to the square inch. They never did explain why. I believe that if the time comes, they will want to collect all stored survival supplies “for the common good.” Is that paranoid? After all, after a collapse the military will have absolute power.
Alaskans probably won’t starve if they can grow food and hunt and fish, but everything is harder and more expensive at 40 below. Ultimately I believe that God will take care of all of us, but then he never promised us a rose garden. – K.L. in Alaska