Preppers consciously devote a great deal of time and resources toward their families or groups, preparing to defend themselves, building better stocks of supplies, creating communications links, and planning for contingencies. It’s not a coincidence that these all mirror elements of a military staff; they’re the essential elements of surviving and operating, whether under the best of circumstances or the worst. In normal life, they can be fulfilled without much conscious thought. Your personnel (J1) are your family, coworkers, neighbors, and friends. Your daily operations (J3) are your work or other activities that you build your day and life around. Your logistics (J4) are filled by the gas station, grocery store, highway department, and Wal-Mart. Planning, such as most people do (J5), is devoted to vacations or preparations. Communications (J6) is filled by the cable guy, Geek Squad, or cell phone store.
If, however, these externally decided and performed functions break down, you have to do them yourself, and some knowledge of the fundamentals of each is an essential part of preparing for the worst. The careful reader may have already noticed, but I have only named functions 1, 3, 4, 5, & 6. The J2 function is intelligence, and in my opinion, many preppers are leaving serious consideration of that essential function out of their plan (there is not an “Intelligence Techniques” category listed between “Home Schooling” and “Land Navigation” on SurvivalBlog, for instance). Normally, people get their actionable information as easily as breathing; press a button and a news radio or television program will tell you if a natural disaster is developing or gangs of mutant zombie gerbils are roaming the prairie. However, obtaining good information after a breakdown of communications and order could be as difficult as obtaining gasoline or batteries. In other words, you need to plan to fill your information needs as carefully as you plan your logistical needs.
Intelligence as a function (as opposed to a trait- can’t help you with that one) is the collection, analysis, and dissemination of the information needed to make a decision. Notice that there is no mention of laser beam watches, martinis, or code-breaking supercomputers in that definition. For your purposes as a prepper, gaining intelligence in or after a crisis is simply a matter of replacing the information flow that you enjoy today. However, since there might not always be a global network of reporters, analysts, and bloggers flowing the data to your car or home via cable or satellite, you need a plan to collect and analyze for yourself. You also need a plan to get that intelligence to those in your group that need it.
For preppers, there are really two categories of preps: those you can stock up on now, and those you have to produce or perform in or after a crisis. Intelligence is the same. The military uses the term Intelligence Preparation of the Operational Environment (IPOE). You can learn more about IPOE in Joint Publication JP 2-01.3). IPOE is a continual process in four parts: 1. Analyze the operational environment, 2. Assess the effects of the operational environment, 3. Analyze the adversary, and 4. Determine adversary courses of action (COAs).
In step one, you define the area in which you will operate. This means bounding the geographic space where you will live and work in order to limit your analysis to where it matters. Then you research all of the physical, meteorological, social, legal, and informational aspects of that area. You collect maps, census data, weather information, lists of radio stations (don’t forget ham frequencies), lists of important people, and anything else you can think of that you need to know about the area itself.
In step two, you analyze the effects of that environment on the operations that you intend to conduct. If you need to disinfect water in Alaska, the weather report for January should be a good indicator that solar disinfection isn’t going to work. If you are planning to go about your business armed, researching weapons laws in your area is essential to building that plan. If you intend on moving around, you need to assess what the effect of local roads will be on your vehicle.
In step three, you look at your potential adversaries. In this step, you determine who might do you harm and conduct the same sort of analysis as in step two. Who are they personally? How many of them are there, and how are they equipped? From what do they draw their strength (centers of gravity or COGs)? As an example, if you are considering relocation to an isolated ranch near the US/Mexico border, you might include drug trafficking gangs among your potential adversaries. Their centers of gravity could include the lucrative sale of illegal drugs, weapons, reputations for ruthless violence against their enemies, and wide networks of group members. Under normal circumstances, if you are conducting IPOE to harden your home, your adversary might be the common burglar, and his COGs could be darkness, knowledge of your personal schedule, and simple willingness to act. Try not to mirror your adversary; remember that they likely will not think or act the way you would in the same circumstances, and try to get into their shoes. Don’t limit this analysis to just one threat; consider the full range and spectrum and complete the process for each.
In step four, you try to come up with your adversary’s most likely and most dangerous courses of action (COA). In the case of the general threat of a burglar, if you have made your home a hardened target with lights, spiky bushes, and a noisy dog, the most likely COA might be to move on to an easier house down the block. His most dangerous COA might be to switch tactics and attempt a home invasion as you arrive home from work or just after you have left. As in step 3, conduct this analysis for each potential threat. Refine your own actions in response to your analysis of the threat’s courses of action, and realize that as you change your posture, you need to update your analysis.
Once you have completed all four steps, store all your information in a place where you can always get to it, just as with stocks of beans and toilet paper. A hard copy binder containing all of your relevant maps, frequency lists, weather charts, and other information would be invaluable if the power went out and you couldn’t use Google Earth to find the best route to grandmother’s house. Update this binder regularly; just like food, information gets stale with time.
The second broad category of prepping is that which has to be procured or done in a crisis. Unfortunately, you can’t stock up on bullseyes at the range for the day the zombies show up; you have to take your shots in the moment they’re needed. The same rule applies for some information that can only be gathered in relatively real time. Since preppers assume that they can’t always rely on the normal systems of daily life, they need a systematic approach to collecting that intelligence. Collection of intelligence is generally divided into categories, or disciplines, and each helps provide a potentially essential element of information. The most important disciplines for the prepper are open source intelligence (OSINT), communications intelligence (COMINT), human intelligence (HUMINT), and imagery intelligence (IMINT).
OSINT is what we do every day when we turn on the news and watch what is prepared for us by the networks. It is the collection of information of intelligence value from the openly provided media. Reading the newspaper can provide essential information that can drive action: yard sales, weather approaching, volcano erupting, etc. However, the consumer of that information needs to realize that it is being provided in order to benefit the broadcaster; that is, that it is produced by people who know it will be consumed and used to drive decisions. In the event of a crisis, you may need to consider that traditional sources of OSINT could be unavailable or that the people deciding what to broadcast may be trying to shape your decisions in a way that you would otherwise disagree with. As an example, after the Chernobyl disaster, Soviet news broadcasts sought to minimize public relations damage more than to urge people to evacuate.
COMINT is a sub-division of signals intelligence that focuses on communications between people, as opposed to other data. This is analogous to eavesdropping on a conversation in a restaurant. In order to do this for yourself, you need a means of monitoring a wide swath of radio broadcasts. A simple AM/FM radio is a start, but that only lets you gather what is broadcast on the traditional dial; that is to say that it contains mainly OSINT. A CB radio can pick up conversations among ordinary people that can be very useful, especially to travelers. A scanner or ham radio that can receive a wider range of signals can enable you to hear weather reports, emergency responders coordinating their actions, other ordinary people, or broadcasts from outside your local area or country. Importantly, remember that if you can hear people talking on the radio who aren’t talking to you, other people can hear you when you broadcast to your own selected audience as well.
HUMINT focuses on that information gained from other people. If your friend who runs the electronics store tells you that they’ll have a big sale on Saturday, you have gained actionable information via a human source (trench coat, hat, and sunglasses optional). Preppers should build their network of sources now; get to know people who work in important places or who otherwise have access to information of value. In the event that you need to ask a question of your source, be discreet so that you don’t ruin that source of information by getting your source in trouble. Also realize that people who are telling you something might have their own agenda and that it might not be the same as yours.
IMINT is basically the use of photographs or video for intelligence purposes. If you use Google Earth to find sources of water around your house for fishing, you are conducting IMINT analysis. Imagery provides a powerful tool for surveillance and reconnaissance of an area of interest; a camera can be your eyes in places that you cannot always be. For instance, if you want to watch a feed plot for a huge buck, you can place a camera there and leave it for analysis at your leisure. The same applies for watching your driveway or neighborhood with a security camera. Kits are even available to turn model airplanes into video camera-packing drones that can observe an area from above for hours without needing any control.
Each discipline of collections provides raw data. In some cases, this could contain attempts at deception (your source at the electronics store may just want to see you again) or require interpretation (as in the case of police calls using 10-codes). In every case, raw data requires processing and validation before it can be rolled into your ongoing IPOE. If you receive an indication through one discipline, try to verify it with another: check the newspaper (OSINT) for sale announcements if you’re unsure about what your source (HUMINT) said. Ask a police officer (HUMINT) to explain what a term you heard on the radio (COMINT) meant. Look at your security camera (IMINT) to verify what the nice man on the other side of the front door (HUMINT) has to say about his identity.
Once you have your intelligence, you need to [analyze it and] disseminate it to the people you care about, or at least coordinate with. Normally, this would mean a telephone call, text, or e-mail. In the event of these services not working, you need a means of passing the word that is not reliant on that infrastructure and that provides some security. Some information has value inversely proportional to its distribution outside of its intended audience. For instance, if you know that a certain highway out of danger is clear while the interstate is packed, you obviously want those you care about to know and be able to act before everybody else finds out and clogs that route too.
Amateur radio is an obvious method of communicating over long distances, as is the humble CB radio. Neither is secure, but you can obtain some level of communications security by using obscure frequencies or other methods, as Mr. Rawles describes in some of his books. Few media are as secure as a runner with a memorized message, but they are also very slow compared to radio. Satellite phones will work whether the local service does or not. The bottom line is to make a plan now and share it with those with whom you need to communicate. It would be horrible to learn of danger approaching and be unable to warn your loved ones.
In summary, intelligence collection and planning are as essential to your preps as beans and bandages. Store and rotate data the same way that you do food and other supplies. Figure out what your needs are for information today and then figure out how to obtain the same data in a crisis. Build a systematically analyzed and arranged set of essential information to store in case it’s needed, and build a means of collecting that same data if your normal methods are lost due to a crisis. Create a plan to disseminate valuable information in such a way that it doesn’t lose its value by being intercepted by others.