Introductory Notes: Today’s column is a special edition. In lieu of our usual economics and investing news items and commentary, today I’m posting my analysis of the Biden-Harris administration’s policies and plans. In particular, I’ll be covering their planned economic, domestic surveillance, Second Amendment, and environmental policies, and their impact on commerce, interest rates, currencies, and economic liberty in the United States. The following analysis reflects my personal views. Your views may differ. If you dislike rants, then skip reading this.
To begin, I should clarify that I’ll be referring to the Biden-Harris administration with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris as full partners in crime. Don’t mistake Kamala Harris as a mere protégé, sidekick, Race Token, or a pretty stage prop. In fact, it might be Joe Biden who is the stage prop. Harris is already making key policy decisions and is sharing the reins of power [1]. There is considerable evidence that Barack Obama is exerting a lot of influence, with Susan Rice [2] acting as his conduit. Currently, the White House has more palace intrigue than a whole season of Game of Thrones. Perhaps we should be calling it the Obama-Harris administration.
The scope of power and influence of Kamala Harris will only grow, over time. And I suspect that Biden will be shuffled off stage within his first year in office, on some medical pretext. Given his rapid physical decline [3] and mental decline [4], that seems almost inevitable.
Joe Biden has rightfully been labeled a socialist. But Kamala Harris is a much more rabid collectivist than Biden. Her politics and approach to governance are more accurately described as Maoist [5]. I jokingly refer to her as Commie-La-La or as The Camel’s Nose [6]. Despite my jests, I don’t trivialize the looming threat that she poses to our freedom. Kamala Harris is far more cunning and ruthless than Creepy Joe ever was. So… Beware!
Also, please don’t underestimate the speed at which the Biden-Harris administration is moving. They started off with a bang, unleashing more than 80 executive orders in their first couple of weeks. Most of these reversed the Trump administration’s core policies. I don’t expect them to slow down. They will push their socialist agenda as hard and fast as they can. Alarmingly, the left wing of the Democrat Party now controls the House, the Senate, and the White House. This is roughly the same situation as 1992-to-1994. And we all remember that as the time period when the 1994 Assault Weapons and Magazine Ban bill was enacted.
The only thing that could slow down a legislated socialist revolution is the U.S. Senate’s current Filibuster rule [7]. The left wing of the Democrat Party is doing their utmost to do away with Filibustering. But more moderate Democrats realize that this change could be used against them, the next time the political winds shift, and they lose control of congress.
Here are my assessments:
Government Spending, Debt & Defecit:
Though Federal spending was already out of control during the Trump Administration, it is safe to predict that it will be astronomical under Biden-Harris. Look at this chart released by the St. Louis branch of the Federal Reserve: M1 Money Stock [8]. That doesn’t include the recently-aproved $1.9 Trillion spending bill. And what will it look like if the Biden-Harris administration ramrods through their planned $2 Trillion in infrastructure spending [9], and $3 Trillion in “Green Energy” spendin [10]g. It might also be safe to assume that there will be additional Trillions in bailouts and “COVID-19 stimulus.”
The U.S. National Debt [11] was around $28 Trillion, when I last checked. And the budget deficit for 2021 surpassed $1 trillion [12] in just first few months of this year. (To put that in perspective, it took the first 200 years of U.S. government to gradually accumulate the first $1 trillion of National Debt.) But ask your average man on the street about this, and he will be either bewildered or oblivious. In fact, most American citizens don’t even understand the difference between the debt and the defici [13]t. All that they seem to care about is the size of their income tax return check and the size and frequency of their stimulus checks.
My prediction is that with the connivance of congress, the Biden-Harris administration will increase the National Debt to at least $34 Trillion by 2022.
As you watch the new administration roll out its agenda, I suggest that you apply the test of asking: Is what they are doing increasing or decreasing individual liberty, and by extension, are they building up or tearing down free markets, private property, and sound money? If we find that they are tearing them down, then we need to withdraw our consent to be governed by them. And we can only do so if we continue to be armed, because ultimately that factor defines whether a state holds a monopoly of force. It should come as no surprise that one of the key policy objectives of the Biden-Harris administration is civilian disarmament (“gun control”), which would give the state a monopoly of force.
Precious Metals:
The Biden-Harris team is strongly in the fiat money camp. Having a currency pegged to precious metals would limit their spending, so they’d be dead set against it. Ditto for an audit of the gold holdings at Fort Knox.
The new administration’s environmental policies have not yet directly addressed mining. But I suspect that they will be quite similar to their stated oil drilling and oil transport policies, namely: Anti-business, anti-extraction, deleterious to efficient transport, and ultra-environmentalist. If Kamala Harris ever took an aerial tour of the Carlin Trend mining region in Nevada, she’d have a heart attack.
My prediction is that the Biden-Harris administration will be strongly anti-precious metals, in all aspects, namely: Mining, ore hauling, heap-leaching/concentrating, refining, private ownership, border crossing, and tax reporting.
National Economy:
The Biden-Harris team is already busy wrecking the economy. By continuing mask mandates, social distancing, “phased re-openings”, mandatory vaccination, and other COVID-19 policies, they are destroying small businesses and degrading the deployability of our military. Meanwhile, the tech giants are gaining market share. For them, COVID-19 has been a “win-win”, and Biden will be contributing to their success.
Interest Rates:
My prediction is that the Biden-Harris administration’s policies and will lead to higher interest rates. This will clamp down the economy.
Taxes:
Higher taxes [14] are definitely planned by the Biden-Harris team. Specifically, they’ve mentioned these “soak the rich” plans:
- Raising the income tax rate to 39.6% for couples earning more than $400,000 per year in combined income [15].
- A higher capital gains tax rate for those earning more than $1,000,000 per year.
- Raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.
- Reducing tax preferences for pass-through businesses like LLCs and partnerships.
- And, more broad applicability of estate taxes.
And it will not be just higher income and capital gains taxe [16]s. We can probably expect: Higher taxes on guns and ammunition, higher Federal fuel taxes, and higher tobacco and alcohol taxes. There might also be entirely new classes of taxes — perhaps even a federal “per mile” tax [17] for travel on interstate freeways. I also can foresee the Federal marijuana ban being lifted, but then immediately followed by a Federal marijuana “per ounce /per gram” tax.
Silencing Dissent:
We can also expect a renewal of Operation Chokepoint, where Federal regulators cooperate with Tech Giants to de-fund gunmakers, libertarian social media, and conservative commentators by excluding them from payments systems and banking. This has already happened to Gab. (They have had PayPal [18] and many banks [19] “mysteriously” target them for de-banking and cancellation of their credit card merchant accounts.)
Border Security and Immigration:
The new administration has already demonstrated tha they want wide-open borders [20], reversing four years of gains by the Trump administration. The absolute stupidity of throwing open our borders and inviting a Border Stampede while we are in the middle of a global pandemic is just boggling. But that is exactly what we are witnessing. The “asylum seekers” are not even being screened for COVID-19 before being released into the United States. The vast majority of them do not show up for their scheduled hearings.
Foreign Trade:
The Biden-Harris team will reverse many of the favorable foreign trade deals made by Trump, leaving us at a disadvantage, particularly with mainland China. We can also expect to see many of our traditional allies like Taiwan and Israel stabbed in the back — in diplomacy, military equipment sales, and trade matters.
Schemes & Boondoggles:
The Biden-Harris team has signed on the Green New Deal nonsense suggested by the ultra-left fringe Democrats. This will involve incredibly costly subsidies [21] going to a handful of corporations with cozy relationships to power brokers in the administration. Worst of all, the return on investment on most of these schemes will be negative.
Do you remember the taxpayer-funded Cash For Clunkers [22] boondoggle? (That was where our tax dollars were used to pay to destroy the working engines of older cars, to get them off the road.) We can expect similar nonsense emanating from the White House in the next four years. It is safe to anticipate one scheme after another, all sucking up billions of tax dollars. They’ll demand “reparations.” (Which inevitably means higher taxes.) They’ll demand “equity and social justice”. (Which inevitably means higher taxes.) They’ll demand “a fair share”. (Which inevitably means higher taxes.) They’ll demand “innovative programs.” (Which inevitably means higher taxes.) They’ll demand “inclusiveness.” (Which inevitably means higher taxes.) Lather, rinse, repeat.
The Dollar & Cryptocurrencies:
Historians will likely remember the Biden-Harris years as: “When the Dollar went digital.”
The scale of Federal spending under Biden-Harris will make mass inflation a certainty. Ideally, they’d like to postpone the recognition of mass inflation at the consumer level until after the 2024 election, but I have doubts that they will be able to do so.
My prediction is that the Biden-Harris administration’s policies — along with Congressional overspending — will devalue the Dollar by as much as 30% on the Forex by 2024.
The only good that will come from a weaker Dollar will be stronger exports. But as the American economy softens, the global economy will do likewise. That will curtail all foreign trade.
My prediction is that the Biden-Harris administration will push for the introduction of a Digial Dollar, circa 2022. At the same time, they will do everything that they can to crush private cryptocurrencies. (Governments, bankers, and the mafia hate competition.)
Tangibles:
My predictions on new Federal gun and magazine laws have already been posted in this column in the past few weeks. It all looks dreadful. Biden won’t need congressional action on import bans. He can accomplish that via Executive Orders. So plan and invest accordingly.
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