Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. In this column, JWR [1] also covers hedges, derivatives, and various obscura. This column emphasizes JWR’s “tangibles heavy” investing strategy and contrarian perspective.
Today, we look at another new all-time high for gold, in U.S. Dollar terms. (See the Precious Metals section.) Also, take note of my warning on the stock market, in the Economy & Finance section. – JWR
Precious Metals:
Reported in the WSJ on Monday: Gold Futures Rise to Record High on Fed Concerns, Rate-Cut Expectations — The precious metal is now up more than 34% in the year to date [2]. Here is an excerpt:
“Continuous gold futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.8% to $3,543.80 a troy ounce in European midday trading, having reached as high as $3,557.10/oz earlier in the session.”
JWR’s Comment: The WSJ‘s editors failed to mention that spot silver hit a whopping $41.03 per Troy ounce, the same day. By Monday evening on the East Coast (which is Tuesday morning in Asian trading) spot gold was at $3,519.30 and silver at $41.19 per Troy ounce. That brought the market price for a $1,000 face value bag of “junk” silver up to almost $30,000. There was some profit-taking, but by Tuesday evening, gold was back up to $3,555.80. I don’t want to sound smug about this, but… …I told you so!
o o o
Mark Mead Baillie, at Gold-Eagle.com: Gold Lookin’ Sporty; Silver Lovin’ Forty! [3]
o o o
And Neils Christensen, at the Kitco site: Silver could outshine gold as investment demand picks up [4].
Economy & Finance:
From the WSJ: U.S. Stocks Are Now Pricier Than They Were in the Dot-Com Era [5]. JWR’s Comments: The P/E ratios don’t lie. In fact, they fairly accurately presage secular market downturns. And take note that the “Smart Money” is already on the sidelines, ready to ride out the upcoming stock market crash. Just look at Warren Buffett’s now huge cash position for the Berkshire Hathaway portfolio as a key indicator. If you haven’t done so already, GET OUT of most of your equities, ASAP!
o o o
Some gloom and doom talk over at the Whatfinger.com [6]news aggregation site: Population Collapse PART 2: Tim Pool & Elon Musk Warn Of Coming Depression, Social & Economic Crisis [7].
Commodities:
Worldwide shortage of the high explosive TNT [8]. The Washington Examiner article mentioned:
“The war in Ukraine [9] has consumed so much TNT that there is a global shortage of the explosive.
The United States has relied on TNT, or trinitrotoluene, for military [10] and civil mining as well as construction. Previously cheap and plentiful, an investigation [11] by the New York Times found that the global supply has been redirected for Russia and Ukraine’s war machines, cutting off TNT exports and leaving the U.S. facing a worrying shortage.
Due to the production of TNT creating hazardous waste, the U.S. stopped producing it in the 1980s. Instead, it fully relied on imports of the material from China, Russia, Poland, and Ukraine, all of which have ceased exporting TNT because it is needed for explosives.”
and, later in the article:
“The standard 100-pound, 155 mm artillery shell used by both sides consumes an inordinate amount of TNT, especially compared to the small, strategically placed charges used in mining. A standard U.S. 155 mm artillery shell uses [12] 23.4 pounds of TNT. Under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. provided Ukraine with roughly 3 million shells, making up roughly 71.4 million pounds of TNT. Ukraine fires roughly 5,000 155 mm shells every day, for an average of 2 million per month, according to [13] Forbes. Russia’s artillery use is significantly higher, ranging from [14] 10,000 rounds to 36,000 rounds per day. This astronomical use of explosives will require an increasing amount of TNT as the war continues, boding poorly for the global supply chain for the foreseeable future.”
o o o
From OilPrice News: Russian Oil Giants Buckle Under Low Prices and Sanctions [15].
Inflation/Deflation Watch:
Why Is Inflation Rising and NOT Rising at the Same Time? [16]
o o o
WSJ: Higher Prices Are Coming for Household Staples [17].
o o o
Rising Core Inflation and the Fed’s Dilemma: Strategic Positioning for the September Rate Decision [18].
Forex & Cryptos:
Bloomberg: Dollar Set to Weaken Beyond August on Rate Cuts, Trump-Fed Fight [19].
o o o
At Currency Thoughts: Financial Markets Come Out of Summer in a Foreboding Mood [20].
o o o
Shocking report shows 1 Bitcoin costs $1,300 to mine in Iran and $306,000 in Italy (check full list) [21].
o o o
Beware of Bitcoin: A 2026 Crash to $60K Could Be Coming — Here’s Why [22].
Tangibles Investing:
A thought-provoking video: The CMP just destroyed the M1 Garand Market [23]. JWR’s Comments: The key problem is that we have a constantly-inflating currency. Collectors quite naturally want to translate their inflating dollars into tangible items, as hedges. But they have a moving target. Modern (post-1898) guns do provide some protection from inflation. But the available supplies can fluctuate wildly, as new guns are manufactured and new batches of imports hit the market. In contrast, pre-1899 guns only go up in value, because the supply is essentially frozen. Other than just a handful of recent imports of poor condition pre-1899 Italian Carcanos and Vetterlis from Ethiopia, there are NO MORE pre-1899 import guns hitting the market. So buy now, and smile later. Your grandchildren will thank you for your foresight.
o o o
Over at Zero Hedge: Bessent: “We May Declare A National Housing Emergency In Fall” [24].
o o o
Our featured Pre-1899 Gun Of The Week, at Elk Creek Company: Scarce Brass Frame Pietta M1858 Remington .44 BP, With 12.1″ Barrel [25].
Take note that with the recent silver rally, I’ve shifted the silver divisor at Elk Creek Company [26] to 30. (You can take the total for your order and divide by 30 if you’d like to pay in pre-1965 circulated U.S. silver coins. Thus, a $600 order would cost just $20 in silver dimes, quarters, or half dollars.) Our silver divisor changes often, so it is best to take advantage of these spikes in the market. It is a great way to parlay one tangible into another.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos [27] page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR [1]. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form [28].) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. Thanks!