Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR [1]. Today, we look at the nascent drop in the U.S. real estate market. (See the Tangibles Investing section.)
Precious Metals:
Newmont: The Bottom Is In For Gold [2].
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Ghana plans to buy oil with gold instead of U.S. dollars [3].
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Report: China Suspected of Stockpiling Gold to ‘Cut Greenback Dependence’ [4].
Economy & Finance:
St. Louis Fed: Weaker GDP Growth, Inflation Uncertainty Dim U.S. Economic Outlook [5].
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8 Market and Economic Predictions for 2023 [6].
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The Looming Threat of a Rail Strike is Back. Here’s How a Potential Strike Could Affect You [7]. JWR Says: Top off your fuel tanks and your larder, now.
Commodities:
Mixed outlook for commodities in 2023 [8].
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Global copper market to see 155,000 tonne surplus in 2023, says ICSG.
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At OilPrice News: $60 Billion LNG Mega Deal Marks Chinese Influence In Middle East [9].
Derivatives:
How meltdown in a $1 trillion market brought the UK to the brink of a financial crisis [10]. Here is a selection from the article:
“All it took was one big shock. Following finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng’s announcement [11] on Friday, Sept. 23 of plans to ramp up borrowing to pay for tax cuts, investors dumped the pound and UK government bonds, sending yields on some of that debt soaring [12] at the fastest rate on record.
The scale of the tumult put enormous pressure on many pension funds by upending an investing strategy that involves the use of derivatives to hedge their bets.
As the price of government bonds crashed, the funds were asked to pony up billions of pounds in collateral. In a scramble for cash, investment managers were forced to sell whatever they could — including, in some cases, more government bonds. That sent yields even higher, sparking another wave of collateral calls.”
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If you want to know your bank’s notional derivatives exposure, you can find it in a list published by the Office of The Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) [13], updated quarterly. (Scroll down to page 19, for the full list.) You’ll note J.P. Morgan is at the top of the list, for good reason.
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A nine-minute instructional video: Financially speaking: What is a derivative? [14]
Forex & Cryptos:
G10 FX Outlook 2023: Less trend, more volatility [15].
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Up, up, up: Interest Rate Hike in Sweden and South Africa [16].
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Crypto lender BlockFi files for bankruptcy [17].
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At Fox News: Tech analyst warns crypto companies will ‘fall like dominos’ as FTX contagion spreads [18].
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Why The Bitcoin Miners’ Revenue Hit Lowest Point Since 2020 [19].
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Over at American Thinker: Counting the FTX ‘Boy Wonder’s’ Dirty Money [20].
Tangibles Investing:
Robot Landlords Are Buying Up Houses [21]. (A hat tip to reader D.S.V. for the link.)
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US home sales fall for 9th month in a row in October [22].
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2022 winter housing market predictions [23]. Here is a quote:
“Overall, the housing market is in a clear downturn. Home prices peaked nationally in June 2022, when the S&P Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index reached over 318 points and the National Association of Realtors’ median existing-home price for all housing types reached a new high of $416,000. The index dropped to around 303 points as of August (the most recent listing), and median existing-home sale prices have since dropped to $379,100.
A major reason is the steady climb in mortgage interest rates, fueled in part by the Federal Reserve’s decision to raise rates multiple times across 2022. At its November meeting, the Fed increased interest rates for the sixth straight time. It has been aggressively spiking rates in an effort to curb inflation, and the real estate market has suffered accordingly. Rising mortgage rates equate to less interest from home buyers and greater pressure on sellers to reduce their prices.”
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The Housing Market is Projected to Fall in 2023: What You Should Know [24].
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Hagerty: Economic storm clouds are starting to cool off the collector car market [25].
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investing counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos [26] page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR [1]. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form [27].) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!