Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR [1]. Today, we again look at a potential derivatives crisis. (See the Derivatives section.)
Precious Metals:
Silver price predictions to 2030 [2].
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Gold/Silver: Two charts you must watch [3].
Economy & Finance:
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Jeffrey Snider had this lengthy but insightful analysis of yield curves and foreign reserve flows, in this video: Storm warning: almost a trillion in global reserves gone, a quarter ‘missing’ from Swiss [4].
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Moody’s cuts outlook for European banks, including Germany’s, on credit woes [5].
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Protests and strikes erupt across Europe as soaring inflation, cost of living drives ‘winter of discontent’ [6]. (Thanks to blog reader C.B. for the link.)
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FedEx Parks Planes, Maersk Cancels Sails: World Trade Appears To Be Rapidly Deteriorating [7]. (A hat tip to D.S.V. for the link.)
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A recent JWR interview: Fed In Panic Mode; Inflation Out Of Control — James Wesley Rawles [8].
Commodities:
H.L. and D.S.V. both sent this link: Homemade Energy Crisis? Another Refinery, Owned by Chevron, Goes up in Flames – Sabotage of Oil Infrastructure [9]?
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Reader Ed G. had this comment on the diesel shortage:
Derivatives:
Reuters: Exclusive: Energy firms’ multi-trillion derivative bets under ECB scrutiny [11].
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Credit Suisse to Extend Global Job Cuts to Wealth Next Week [12].
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Investopedia: How Big Is the Derivatives Market? [13] A quote:
“The derivatives [14] market is, in a word, gigantic—often estimated at over $1 quadrillion on the high end. How can that be? Largely because there are numerous derivatives in existence, available on virtually every possible type of investment asset, including equities, commodities, bonds, and currency. Some market analysts even place the size of the market at more than 10 times that of the total world gross domestic product [15] (GDP)”
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ICE Swap Rate [16].
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The FDIC outlines derivatives [17].
Cryptos:
Bitcoin and most other cryptos got slammed down heavily, last week. Many cryptos declined more than 30%. Solana was down a whopping 46.7%. It seems that most crypto investors thought that the worst was over by Thursday. But on Friday, Bitcoin [18] declined another 3.87% (in Dollar terms) to $16,843. Where is the bottom? That is anyone’s guess. I expect to hear about some margin calls, this week.
With more regulation and taxation on the horizon, I must reiterate my long-standing advice: Keep your crypto holdings small — no more than 5% of the liquid part of your investment portfolio. Also, do not keep your coins in any exchange more than just briefly, to execute a transaction. Your crypto should be held in an air-gapped hardware wallet. (FYI, I use a Trezor wallet.) – JWR
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Bitcoin price could bottom at $10,000 – Robert Kiyosaki [19].
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he Collapse of the FTX Empire: What the Bankruptcy Filing Means for the Future of Crypto [20].
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Posted at Coin Telegraph on November 10th: FTX’s ongoing saga: Everything that’s happened until now [21].
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Posted on Friday: Total crypto market cap drops to $850B as data suggests further downside [22].
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Posted on Friday evening: FTX US suspends withdrawals, according to on-chain data [23].
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Some key details, posted on Saturday: $2BN of clients’ money is MISSING from collapsed crypto exchange FTX: Founder Sam Bankman-Fried denies secretly transferring $10BN to trading company run by his girlfriend [24].
Tangibles Investing:
I warned you, folks: Mortgage Payments Surge 50 Percent Since Last Year as Homebuyers Get Priced Out [25].
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Buck Knives [26] of Idaho (one of our affiliate advertisers) is running a free shipping special offer for any orders over $99. Whether you are shopping for gifts, or hedging against inflation, it makes sense to buy quality knives and tools. And buying ones that are made here in the United States is a plus.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investing counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos [27] page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR [1]. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form [28].) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!