Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR [1]. Today, we look at the prospects for King Dollar. (See the Forex & Cryptos section.)
Precious Metals:
Yesterday (Thursday, Jan. 6, 2022) morning, spot silver was down 4.66%, gold was down 1.08%, and platinum was down 2.75%. Dips like these are good buying opportunities.
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U.S. Mint sees strongest gold coin sales in 12 years, sells 1.25 million ounces in 2021 [2].
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Gold Was The Best Performing Precious Metal For 2021 [3].
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An Extraordinary Rise In U.S. Debt In Just The Last Two Weeks [4].
Economy & Finance:
Over at the Mutual Fund Investor Guide blog [5]:
“The 10-year Treasury yield started the year at 0.90 percent and finished at 1.51 percent, making a high at 1.75 percent in March 2021. If inflation is not controlled in 2022, the 10-year could move above 2 percent over the next few months. Bond investors anticipate the Fed is correct about inflation declining in 2022 though, hence the very low interest rates on longer-term bonds.”
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Video: Jim Cramer shares his outlook for 2022: Rate hikes and tangible profits [6].
Equities:
Nasdaq falls for a third day as tech stocks struggle, Dow loses 170 points [7].
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Watch out, folks… It looks like he is shifting largely to cash: ‘The Big Short’ investor Michael Burry sold most of his US stocks last quarter – but added three new holdings [8].
Commodities:
I’ve had several consulting clients ask me for my opinion about how the current stand-off over Ukraine will play out. In the end, I believe that NATO will parlay for peace and allow Russia to take that territory without anything more than just diplomatic protests and some token sanctions. Why? Because western Europe is now heavily dependent on natural gas that is piped in from Russia [9]. All they have to do is close the valves — or even just threaten to close the valves — and NATO will cave in. Everyone knows who really runs Bartertown [10].
Unless they make their move now, while the ground is frozen, the invasion of Ukraine will probably have to wait for better warfighting weather, in late spring or early summer. That is when the ground dries out enough for tracked vehicles to maneuver freely, off-road. In that same timeframe, I expect China to make a move on Taiwan. It is in the best interests of Russia and China to make their moves simultaneously — while The Weakling is still sitting in the White House. I suspect a Sino-Russian deal has already been secretly made, to do just that. – JWR
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Alex N. sent us this: U.S. Natural Gas Faces Wild 2022 as Foreign Crises Exert Pull [11].
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Maritime News reports: Commodities 2022: Oil demand recovery seen holding course despite omicron threat [12].
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Commodities 2022: US soybean supply set to soar on higher acreage [13].
Inflation Watch:
TownHall: Buckle Up: Inflation Set to Drive Consumer Prices Even Higher in 2022 [14].
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Even the perma-bulls at CNN admit it: Why prices will keep soaring in 2022 [15].
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IRS provides tax inflation adjustments for tax year 2022 [16]. JWR’s Comment: Isn’t that just like some fictional Terry Pratchett novel tax bureaucrat, to set inflation allowances at the beginning of a calendar year, instead of at the end?
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JoNova: 2022: The Year of Inflation [17].
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From a food processing trade blog: Opinion: Inflation’s Image Problem [18].
Forex & Cryptos:
FOREX-Dollar celebrates 2022 with gains amid positive new year mood [19].
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At Capital.com: Five forex themes for 2022: King dollar’s reign may extend [20]. A snippet:
“The FX research team at the Bank of America (BofA) sees markets getting jittery next year because of the withdrawal of the enormous pandemic policy support. BofA forecasts the Fed to begin raising rates by 25 basis points in June and continue with similar quarterly increases until early 2024, while the Bank of England (BoE) may disappoint. The EUR/USD [21] should fall to 1.10, while the USD/JPY [22] will rise to 118, according to the US bank. The firm has raised its 2022 year-end estimates for the EUR/GBP [23] to 0.89 from 0.86, as Brexit risks remain undervalued.”
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Three Cryptocurrencies That Can Crush Shiba Inu in 2022 [25].
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Do bitcoin charts foretell an impending crash in 2022? [26]
Tangibles Investing:
Four Real Estate Trends Smart Investors Are Watching for 2022 [27].
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I missed this, when it was posted back in May of 2021: How Working Remotely Will Impact the Future of Real Estate [28]. JWR’s Comments: My prediction is that by 2023, the advent of both inexpensive photovoltaic power and Starlink connectivity will completely transform the prevailing conceptions of “remote, rural, off-grid” real estate, nationwide. A lot of the price differential between on-grid and off-grid will disappear.
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You may recall that I reduced the prices on all 17 16 15 of my percussion revolvers, at Elk Creek Company [29]. These require no paperwork in most states. Some of the sale prices are as low as just $15 face value in pre-1965 U.S. silver coinage. (I of course also take cash, checks, or PMOs.) I’ll be ending that sale at 5 PM Pacific Time on Monday, January 10th. I look forward to mailing out your order.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos [30] page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR [1]. (Either via e-mail or via our Contact form [31].) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!