Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR [1]. Today, we look at how the anticipation of inflation breeds inflation. (See the Forex & Cryptos section.)
Precious Metals:
We’ll start today’s column with this piece posted in late August by Arkadiusz Sieron: Will U.S. Elections Impact The Gold Rally? [2]
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Gold price action ‘agnostic’ to who wins the election: TD Securities [3]
Economy & Finance:
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UK recession expected to continue until spring amid Covid-19 surge [5]
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What’s Behind the Fed’s Project to Send Free Money to People Directly? [6]A pericope:
“There is a lot of discussion suddenly about a Federal Reserve project to make direct payments to households during an economic crisis. In March, legislation was proposed in the House and in the Senate to authorize the Fed to do this.
At the beginning of August, two former Fed officials floated a trial balloon of this type of operation with some specifics as to how it would work and how it would be accounted for on the Fed’s balance sheet.”
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Another at Wolf Street: Commercial Real Estate Office Sector Crushed by Work-from-Home, Tsunami of Supply in Q3: Manhattan, San Francisco, Houston, Chicago, Los Angeles [7]
Commodities:
At Wolf Street: California Sales Ban of New Gasoline & Diesel Vehicles Jolts Half-Dead Business Model of Electric Utilities & Power Producers, Including in Other States [8]
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R.J. sent us this: Nat Gas Prices Set To Soar As First Cold Blast To Strike Eastern US Next Week [9]
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OilPrice News reports: 70% Of Lost U.S. Oil Jobs May Not Return Anytime Soon [10]
Equities:
At Zero Hedge: James Grant: Why Market Risk Is Near The Highest In History [11]
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The Post COVID-19 Landscape Part 2 – Equities Facing A Lost Decade [12]
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At InvestorPlace: Seven Overvalued Stocks Investors Should Sell This October [13]
Forex & Cryptos:
US Dollar Correction, GBP/USD Flips to Short, AUD/USD Longs Halved – COT Report [14]
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Venezuela Economic Outlook [15]. JWR’s Comment: The inflation seems unstoppable. Aside from the nation’s oil and refined fuel crises, just the anticipation of further inflation breeds inflation. Should this be called abnormalcy bias?
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A useful macroeconomic white paper: Inflation expectations as a policy tool? [16]Here is a snippet:
“Higher expected inflation can also lead firms to immediately raise their prices in anticipation of rapidly declining relative prices, and workers may similarly bargain for larger nominal wage increases. “
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ECB Trademarks “Digital Euro” As It Begins Experiments On Digital Currency Launch [17]
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ECB to consider further digital euro study in 2021 [18]
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Bank of Canada calls central bank digital currencies risky, especially storage [19]
Tangibles Investing:
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Florida’s rural real estate is booming amid COVID-19 pandemic [21]
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos [22] page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR [1]. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form [23].) These are often especially relevant because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News items from local news outlets that are missed by the news wire services are especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!
Comments Disabled To "Economics & Investing For Preppers"
#1 Comment By hl On October 9, 2020 @ 11:44 am
Regarding article on Rents: I can see where some landlords with several multi-family rental homes or apartment complexes, where the occupants are NOT Section 8, but struggling WORKING poor, will just throw up their hands and want OUT. Months and months of no rental income, yet they pay a lot of overhead, and it is cutting into the landlord’s income, so they want out! Since it might be difficult to sell this type of housing, especially when some of it in the inner cities is in “poor condition”, they might just approach the Mayor or Town Council or appropriate State and/or Federal Agency and inquire if they want to purchase the properties. That way they get out before they lose any more money, and can just leave the area if they wish and buy a home for themselves in a reasonably priced (more rural) area. The MANDATE that they cannot evict tenants for non-payment of rent is really devastating to many landlords. I know I would do so, were I one of those Landlords, especially as I do NOT expect certain parts of the economy to bounce back any time soon. The damage from the “lock down” goes very deep! I believe this IS the 4th Turning!
#2 Comment By Joe On October 9, 2020 @ 2:20 pm
Slight problem with government entities buying rental properties: the governments are all broke, and overextended. Since the government cannot run anything well and never turns a profit. Any purchases would just turn into a great big sucking negative financial hole, that of course, would have to be placed on the backs of the already over taxed wage earners. It would result in another step towards socialism. There are many examples of government housing not working, I give you the Chicago Projects and all the other failed low income housing slums.
I predict that the states that have mandated that tenants don’t have to pay rent at the moment will find themselves in court fighting endless court battles over this unconstitutional taking.
#3 Comment By LargeMarge On October 9, 2020 @ 2:39 pm
re:
‘mandate’
Q:
What is the difference between a ‘mandate’ from a bureaucrat… and a ‘dictate’ from a dictator?
A:
Most folks ignore dictators, lumping them in the ‘pompous tin-horn self-important’ category of chests-full of self-awarded ribbons and shoulder-boards of curly frills and the all-important fancy hats.
Bureaucrats, on the other hand, are hard-working in-your-best-interests trained-perfessionals.
#4 Comment By OneGuy On October 9, 2020 @ 3:55 pm
Where did the government get the authority to tell renters that they did not have to pay rents and to tell landlords that they could no longer evict renters for non-payment? I don’t think they can legally, constitutionally do that.
#5 Comment By Nathan Hail (not to be confused with generic Nathan) On October 9, 2020 @ 7:18 pm
DING ! DING ! DING ! WE have a WINNER ! Such laws are blatantly UNCONSTITUTIONAL ! I don’t want to be heartless, but if you don’t pay your rent, or if someone else doesn’t pay it for you you SHOULD be evicted so the landlord can find another tenant who can pay.
Where in the U.S. Constitution, does it say that renters can live free without paying their rent as specified in their rental contracts ? Hint- it DOESN’T !
#6 Comment By Ron On October 9, 2020 @ 1:43 pm
Food Food Food and more food. Get it?
#7 Comment By OldParatrooper On October 9, 2020 @ 1:55 pm
RE: Landlords and Rental Units. I live in a Red State that has stayed fairly open after the initial shutdown. I own five rental units as part of my retirement plan, and so far have been lucky that the renter’s have all apparently stayed employed and have been paying their rents. One unit is vacant as the tenants bought a house in August. Other than the temporary loss of income from the vacant unit, its been business as usual. But losing three months rent from one unit has affected our income.
#8 Comment By we seek peaceful co-existence On October 9, 2020 @ 2:54 pm
I’m curious, what will happen when folks paying mortgages on homes cannot make the payments because the states/counties have jumped their property tax rates so high that the homeowners simply also throw up their hands and stop paying? Will the banks finally realize that they will have to treat a mortgage obligation as an un(secured) debt and separate that part of the mortgage payment from the county property tax and the homeowners insurance portion? Banks better get their act together if they want to continue to get paid. The counties never will tho..if you own your home outright you can apparently not pay property taxes at all for several years before the county starts foreclosure proceedings and even at that point you can still “negotiate”. Agencies with their heads in the sand had better realize that some money is better than no money coming in at all..
#9 Comment By Myrna On October 9, 2020 @ 2:55 pm
We were $20,000 behind in lost rent, now down to $14,000 and again rising. We are putting it on the market. That’s the only way to get a tenant out. And the burden is on the buyer.
God has been good to us that we have not had lost income so up to now we have been able to cover the mortgage.
#10 Comment By skeptic On October 9, 2020 @ 3:03 pm
As a small landlord with 4 residential properties, I have weathered the storm so far. My tenants have all paid rent on time. However the “no eviction” mandate by my state governor has me scratching my head. Although there is a tenant assistance program, tenants have little motivation to apply. Landlords cannot apply. So tenants can live rent free for a few months. At the same time, the cities and counties these properties are in have not suspended any payments by property owners to the city or county, such as property taxes, sewer, etc. The government hand is still out collecting property taxes and improvment assessments, but I can’t collect rent if my tenants choose not to pay.
#11 Comment By Myrna On October 9, 2020 @ 7:51 pm
That’s us. The tenant refuses to apply for financial help but is $9,000 behind and can get possibly up to $4,500 assistance.
#12 Comment By The Lone Canadian On October 9, 2020 @ 3:40 pm
How does the government mandating that people don’t have to pay rent, not make them responsible for the lost income of the property owners. By making this declaration they have, in effect, declared themselves the owners, or at the very least, have made themselves responsible for any losses incurred by the owners.
We have a government that is mandating what is allowed to be done with privately owned property. How is that even constitutional?
#13 Comment By CORD7 On October 9, 2020 @ 4:02 pm
LargeMarge
Well said
Both are paid bloviators
Professional only means they’re “paid” ~
Heard the expression:
If you’re good at something do it for a living
Then there’s:
If your not good at something – you can make a living teaching it
Lastly there’s this:
If you can’t make it as a teacher – cause nobody wants to listen to you – be a politician
And you’ll THINK they’ll have to listen to you
#14 Comment By anon On October 9, 2020 @ 7:47 pm
I was curious as to what group would so cowardly attack innocent people on a train. According to news reports at the time, “Four typewritten notes, attacking the ATF and the FBI for the 1993 Waco Siege, criticizing local law enforcement, and signed ‘Sons of the Gestapo’, were found near the scene of the wreck, indicating that the train had been sabotaged.” Perhaps not all of OUR Nation’s enemies march under the banner of Antifa?!…
#15 Comment By Ani On October 10, 2020 @ 2:38 pm
@ anon
You could write a note and sign it Mickey Mouse; doesn’t mean Disney is derailing trains!
#16 Comment By RED On October 9, 2020 @ 9:30 pm
Second hand news but from someone I trust
Renter did not pay his rent Landlord took him to court
Court said renter did not have to pay his rent
AND THEN told the landlord he has to pay the renters water and elec. bill
Is it true I do not know
And here is this One of wife patient went to the hospital wife got ER report
ER said
Runny nose check
Sore Throat check
Coughing check
Likely Covid
Now how would they know that with out a test
It is all a money game