Here are the latest news items and commentary on current economics news, market trends, stocks, investing opportunities, and the precious metals markets. We also cover hedges, derivatives, and obscura. Most of these items are from the “tangibles heavy” contrarian perspective of SurvivalBlog’s Founder and Senior Editor, JWR [1]. Today, we look at the recent stock market rallies. Be warned: These stock market rallies are irrationally exuberant. (See the Equities section.)
Precious Metals:
Summer doldrums? Precious Metals Sector Correction Starts As Risk On And Seasonal Factors Weigh [2]
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Money managers hike bullish silver positioning but scale back in go [3]ld
Economy & Finance:
In the WSJ: U.S. Economy Faces Long Recovery From Coronavirus Effects, Experts Say [4]
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At Zero Hedge: California Faces “Financial Collapse” As It Moves To Allow Businesses To Walk Away From Commercial Leases [5]
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Neil Irwin, in The New York Times: Don’t Lose the Thread. The Economy Is Experiencing an Epic Collapse of Demand. [6]
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Why People Are Hoarding Cash in the Coronavirus Panic [7]
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At Wolf Street: Rents in the Most Expensive Cities Drop. Oil Patch Gets Hit Too. But Massive Gains in Other Cities [8]
Commodities:
E.G. sent us this: Sugar shipping rush in Brazil amid COVID surge causes huge vessel logjam [9]
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OilPrice News reports: Global LNG Markets Crushed By Global Pandemic [10]
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The recent uptick in uranium ore prices [11] is interesting.
Equities:
At Fortune: The stock market’s breathtaking rally has some investors worried about another correction [12]
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Over at CNBC’s Perpetual Cheering Section: Why the Dow rally won’t stop now, based on recent market history.
JWR’s Comment: Count me as Fully Dubious. I urge caution. At this stage, it is wise to limit your exposure to any stock shares that are not recession proof or depression proof. For all other stocks: Sell into these irrationally exuberant rallies.
Forex & Cryptos:
British Pound (GBP) Latest: GBP/USD Increasingly Nervous About Brexit [13]
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EUR/USD jumps toward 1.1350 as the dollar takes a breather [14]
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Jameson Lopp: The Dos and Don’ts of Bitcoin Key Management [15]. A snippet:
“When you entrust your keys to someone else, you might feel like you’re ridding yourself of the risks that come with securing private keys. This is not the case – all of those threats still exist, but now you no longer have control over putting measures in place to stop them. Furthermore, your threat model actually expands because now there are additional risks to your money…”
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Bitcoin Price Volatility Hits 3-Month L [16]ow
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Seven Explosive Cryptocurrencies to Buy After the Bitcoin Halvening [17]. JWR’s Comment: I must warn my readers: The long term prospects for private anonymous cryptocurrencies look bleak, once sovereign (government-controlled and tracked) cryptos start to come on line in late 2020, and beyond. Regulation and “transparency” demands (read: taxation) will surely come hard and fast. So consider your crypto investing short term “in-and out” plays. And at least for now, do not commit more than 5% of your investment capital in cryptos!
Tangibles Investing:
Will car prices drop after coronavirus? [18]
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A glance at the housing market forecast at Zillow [19] shows a long string of NEGATIVE numbers, with a nationwide average of -1.1, with just a couple of exceptions. Most notably: Washington: 0 (flat) and Idaho +0.3. My prediction: Rural real estate will likely remain strong, all through this nascent recession.
Provisos:
SurvivalBlog and its Editors are not paid investment counselors or advisers. Please see our Provisos [20] page for our detailed disclaimers.
News Tips:
Please send your economics and investing news tips to JWR [1]. (Either via e-mail of via our Contact form [21].) These are often especially relevant, because they come from folks who closely watch specific markets. If you spot any news that would be of interest to SurvivalBlog readers, then please send it in. News from local news outlets that is missed by the news wire services is especially appreciated. And it need not be only about commodities and precious metals. Thanks!
Comments Disabled To "Economics & Investing For Preppers"
#1 Comment By Faethor Ferenczy On June 12, 2020 @ 11:25 am
Remember this while the news is talking about second waves.
This lady is telling the truth about NYC covid with video proof.
[22]
#2 Comment By LibertarianMan On June 13, 2020 @ 4:46 am
So now the “hoax” isn’t that the death toll is being inflated, it’s that people actually are dying but they are being murdered. Nice sleight of hand.
#3 Comment By JGinTex On June 12, 2020 @ 1:41 pm
Thanks for sharing the video Faethhor Ferenczy. That is some really scary stuff going on in NY hospitals and explains a lot of why their stats are so different from most of the country.
#4 Comment By D.D. On June 12, 2020 @ 2:22 pm
In the early years of my prepper enlightenment phase, I spent hours watching gyrations in the markets, falsely believing that up days were actions of the “Bad Guys” driving it up and down days were actions of the “Good Guys” attempting to bring it back to reality. Eventually, I learned that the markets are like playing a card game with a 5-year old that makes up new rules by the minute to suit his/her particular hand at that moment. Yesterday’s selloff, and most that have occurred over the past decade, are exactly that. Except the 5-year olds wear $10,000 suits and live in penthouse apartments. Markets are driven down so they can be bought more cheaply and driven back up when it benefits them. The usual suspects make money on both trips.
With a Treasury department packing a Trillion dollar taxpayer-funded bazooka and a president who has staked a bigly part of his reputation and reelection chances on rising markets, the next four and half months may be the last opportunity to make serious money that can be converted into tangibles. What happens after November 4, 2020, is anyone’s guess.
#5 Comment By Chris in Arkansas On June 12, 2020 @ 4:14 pm
D.D. – your comments mirror my own. There are far fewer opportunities in long term growth investing. Volatility makes the market now. If market conditions aren’t offering enough organic volatility to create buy and sell points them rest assured someone will create that volatility. It’s a traders market right now. Investors (not the same thing as a trader) have to remain nimble or they’re going to get slaughtered. Nothing wrong with sitting on the sidelines waiting for the right entry point.
#6 Comment By Nathan Hail (not to be confused with generic Nathan) On June 12, 2020 @ 9:20 pm
D.D. and Chris – you are exactly right. The large investors are taking opportunities to leave the market. They are being replaced by first-time stock market buyers. I saw an article on that just last night. This means that WHEN not if, the market crashes, it will be the little guy- people like us- who lose their investments and will be wiped out.
If you are still in the stock market- GET OUT ! Buy tangibles- food, a water supply, gold or silver, get out of debt, and get right with Jesus.
#7 Comment By Bear On June 12, 2020 @ 10:19 pm
Thanks for the nudge, D.D. I have been hesitating to broach the topic with my husband, as he has a severe case of unsupported optimism (and also Trump is his hero who *surely* is gonna make everything magically okay again, any day now…).
But I did, cautiously, and prefaced with plenty of hedges like “at the risk of sounding like a paranoid conspiracy theorist…” I asked him if he’s been watching the markets and then said, “At what point should we have a discussion about whether to convert our 401ks to tangibles before November?” I expected a chuckle and a flip non-answer. But instead, he took a deep breath and said soberly, “Yeah. John’s already pulled all of his out of the market!”
Well then. John is our financial advisor.
Guess I’ll get my discussion after all! Nothing ventured, nothing gained, right?
#8 Comment By GritsInMontana On June 13, 2020 @ 12:02 am
You can always move to a cash position (money market) within your 401k to protect yourself from the vagaries of the market, and save yourself the big tax hit. And, if you continue to invest, you will then get whatever your employer matches, added to your cash position. Also, you can take a loan against your 401k and invest in precious metals. I have done this and the PMs outperformed any options I had in my 401k. Just some ideas. But yes, I agree…get out, one way or another. Protect yourself.
This recent bounce and crash reminds me of the bounces and crashes that occurred between 1929-1932. Looking at a chart of the market for that time frame, we can see that each high became lower and each low became lower as the market crept downward…ultimately losing over 90% of its value.
#9 Comment By Anon On June 12, 2020 @ 3:59 pm
I am taking this “up” period to restock on basics. For example, I am buying around 30 pound of carrots a week and canning them up. Baking soda. Vinegar. The last couple of months have been a pretty good test to see what we were low on or should have stocked more of.
#10 Comment By Chris in Arkansas On June 12, 2020 @ 4:22 pm
Good idea. I am only guessing at this point but if hospitalizations begin to increase dramtically then many states will reinstate lockdowns. I believe this would be a death blow to the markets – stocks, jobs and production/distribution would all suffer.
#11 Comment By Nathan Hail (not to be confused with generic Nathan) On June 12, 2020 @ 9:31 pm
For some reason, the stores around here are out of yeast. I just bought a bread machine to make bread in case it is unavailable, but can’t find any yeast locally, so I ordered some online.
#12 Comment By Tom MacGyver On June 12, 2020 @ 10:52 pm
I had the same issue finding yeast. It was unobtanium for months. Out of nowhere though, there was a good batch at Wally World, as well as another one at another market. I bought it all. Those around me can call me “hoarder.” What they won’t be able to call me, but WILL be able to call themselves, is UNPREPARED…
Keep in mind though, not to buy more than you think you’ll use in the next couple of years. It does have a short shelf life…
#13 Comment By GritsInMontana On June 13, 2020 @ 12:06 am
Avalanche Lily… please correct me if I am wrong, but I believe it was your husband who informed me on this blog that yeast can be stored in the freezer to extend the shelf life. I hope I am right about this because I now store it in the freezer. If this is correct it might be a little gem to help Nathan and Tom.
#14 Comment By Avalanche Lily On June 13, 2020 @ 2:31 am
Hello Grits,
We do store our yeast in the freezer and it’s been in there for over three or four or more years and still does it’s job when we use it. So yes it can be frozen.
Blessings,
Lily
#15 Comment By Bear On June 13, 2020 @ 12:10 am
If I may chime in — over ten years ago, I purchased two 1# (vacuum sealed) packages of yeast at the warehouse store. One of them was never opened at the time, due to a change in life circumstances and lack of baking. I kept it in the freezer, though, (and in ice chests during hurricanes), and opened it up this past spring. It is YEARS past its date, but works just as well as new! HTH 🙂
#16 Comment By Nathan Hail (not to be confused with generic Nathan) On June 13, 2020 @ 1:59 am
Well I started looking for yeast when I attempted to bake a loaf of bread and it failed to rise. My local grocery where I shop was out of it, so I went to wally world and they were out too. Thanks for your help, fellow survivors.
#17 Comment By Charles K. On June 12, 2020 @ 8:56 pm
For anyone interested:
[23]
From the article: “.. representatives from the Gates Foundation met with U.S. Congressman Bobby L. Rush at a sit down in Rwanda, East Africa in mid August 2019 to hash out who would score the windfall from a government contact tracing program. And just last month — nine months after the meetings with the Gates Foundation in Rwanda — Rush, a Democrat from Illinois, introduced the $100 BILLION H.R. 6666, the COVID-19 Testing, Reaching and Contacting Everyone (TRACE) Act.”
We don’t call it a Planned-demic for nothing.
#18 Comment By Charles K. On June 12, 2020 @ 9:13 pm
There’s more:
It Begins: Psychologists Push To Classify People Resisting Coronavirus Edicts as Mentally Ill.
[24]
Police search Baltimore family’s home after BB gun spotted in 11 yo child’s online class
[25]
The Supreme Court Is the Source of This Civil Unrest
[26]
The Brave New World of Bill Gates and Big Telecom
By Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (one of the good guys)
[27]
#19 Comment By Once a Marine… On June 13, 2020 @ 2:45 am
I read the Kennedy article. Yikes.
I am asking my computer friends what we can do about it. Yikes.
Carry on in grace
#20 Comment By Tom MacGyver On June 12, 2020 @ 10:54 pm
Yesterday’s 1800+ point loss on the Dow was blamed on a spike in COVD cases. I keep track of these numbers from day to day, and have since this thing started. I’ve seen no spike. In fact, the numbers have been trending downward…
#21 Comment By Morris the cat On June 13, 2020 @ 2:07 pm
RE: cryptocurrencies,
check out link to Armstrong Economics: [28]
Synopsis; governments are not going to allow private, anonymous ‘money’ in any form to compete with their own. Folks are deluding themselves if they think it is a store of value. Yes, you can trade it for now…and what if the grid is down? How do you access it? Block chain technology would be better served used to ensure the integrity of our voting system which currently is extremely suspect to manipulation and corruption, and getting worse by the day.