Notes from JWR:

The economic news has been so copious for so many months that I’ve decided to create a new daily Economics and Investing section, to divide those items from the extant Odds ‘n Sods section. My heartfelt thanks to The Economatrix (our volunteer Economic Editor) and to the many SurvivalBlog readers that have sent such a deluge of economic news and commentary links. Please keep them coming, via e-mail. Thanks!

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Just two days left to bid! The current high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is at $1,650. This auction ends at midnight (Eastern time) on Sunday, February 15th. This auction is for a large mixed lot, which includes::

1.) A “be ready to barter” box of 36 full-capacity gun magazines, from my personal collection in JASBORR. This box includes: 12 – Used original Bundeswehr contract HK91 (G3) steel 20 round magazines, 6 – Used original Austrian FN-FAL steel 20 round magazines, with cartridge counter holes, 10 – Used AR-15/M16 USGI (all Colt made!) alloy 20 round magazines, 6 – Excellent condition original Glock Model 19 9mm 15 round pistol magazines (early type, with “U” notch), and 2 – New and very scarce original FN (Belgian-made) US M1/M2 Carbine blued steel 30 round magazines (marked “AYP”) . All of these magazines are of pre-1994 manufacture (and hence legal to possess in New York.) These magazines have a combined value of approximately $710, in today’s market. Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.

2. ) A brand new-in-box Hot Jaw Bag Sealer and a box of 10 Mylar bags . (Every retreat group should have one these, since they are a tremendous labor saver!) This is a $200 retail value, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

3.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

4.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). 

5.) A gift certificate for $100 worth of books, courtesy of Back 40 Books.

6.) A case of 12 cans of recent production nitrogen-packed storage granola (mixed varieties) This is a $96 retail value, courtesy of CampingSurvival.com.

Thus, this auction has a combined value in excess of $1,565.

Again, this auction ends at midnight (Eastern time) on February 15th. Please e-mail us your bid. Your bid will be for the entire mixed lot.

Letter Re: Gold and Silver Coins as an Investment

James Wesley,
I’d like your input regarding the purchase of gold and silver coins from third party vendors. Instead of paying $1,000+ for a single gold coin of one troy ounce. I’d like to buy ten 1/10th troy ounce gold (or silver) coins. I feel smaller denominations of “hard” currency promote better trade/purchase power. I have noticed in a multitude of Gun/Survival forums/magazines various companies that offer coins that are not directly from the U.S. mint but are [in smaller fractional sizes] than what you normally purchase from the US Mint.

I can foresee having a handful of one troy ounce gold coins [when] all you need is a dozen chickens. Any thoughts? – Christopher W.

JWR Replies: The situation that you describe is precisely what I showed in the Barter Faire (“For an Ounce of Gold”) chapter of my novel “Patriots“. A full ounce of gold is far too compact a form of wealth to be practical for day-to-day barter transactions. That is why I recommend that readers here in the US invest in small-denomination US pre-1965 silver dimes, quarters, and half-dollars, for barter. (Or get their equivalents, if you live elsewhere, such as pre-1948 (pre-decimal ) silver English coinage, or decimal or pre-decimal 1964 or earlier silver coinage in Australia.) The prospect of making “change” from gold coin transactions with a cold chisel is neither practical nor aesthetically appealing.

Letter Re: Denominating in Time Versus Dollars

James,
Today I picked up 200 pounds of pearled barley from my local health food store that had ordered it for me. As I loaded it into my living room so I could mylar seal it, I flashed on what it would have represented in terms of time (man hours) in an earlier age. To get that 200 pounds of barley, I would have had to:

1) Have land
2) Have seed
3) Till, irrigate and plant the land
4) Protect the crop from birds and thieves
5) Harvest, thresh and transport the grain

The number of man hours required to get 200 pounds of grain would have been enormous, compared to the amount of time I had to spend to make the money to buy the grain.
As we witness the collapse of the current economic model, I have begun to ask myself not just how much something costs, but if I had to make it or do it myself, how much time would it take. From this perspective, the relative value of things change. Wheelbarrows and horses aren’t necessary, but they sure are faster and easier than transporting things on my back. Water filters aren’t necessary, I can chop and carry wood and boil water, but this takes more time then using a water filter. – SF in Hawaii

JWR Replies: The foregoing observation becomes even more sobering when you consider the prospect of doing work with “the sweat of the brow” versus diesel fuel or electricity. Engine-powered and electrically-powered equipment is a tremendous labor saver. As my grandfather Ernest E. Rawles was fond of saying: “There’s nothin’ like power tools!” That saying has been passed down to my children.

Woe be unto us, if and when we live through an age with a significant disruption in the supply of diesel fuel and gasoline. Presently, here at the Rawles Ranch we burn about three cords of firewood each winter. We could get by with just two cords. But even that represents a tremendous amount of effort if it must accomplished without the aid of a chainsaw. A four day job becomes a four week job. Nearly the same ratio applies to hand tilling and to hand scything. Someday, a pair of well-trained draft horses with pulling tack and tackle might be worth a king’s ransom.

Prepare for times of fuel scarcity. Start looking for high-quality used hand tools. Here is a short list: Axes, timber jacks, timber cross-cut saws, splitting mauls and wedges, scythes, wheeled-cultivator, spading fork, a hand-crank or treadle bench grinder, a brace and bits, carpentry hand saws (cross-cut and rip) a pair of come-alongs, a hand crank meat grinder, a hand crank wheat grinder, a post hole digger, wheelbarrows, garden carts, and so forth. A “WTB” ad on Craig’s List is a great place to begin gathering such tools inexpensively.

Sending “Patriots” as a Form of Protest

Dear Jim,
I was incensed that one of my state’s US Senators (Kay Hagan of North Carolina) voted for the so-called “Stimulus Bill”. I searched for ways to register my protest in such a way that it would get her attention. Thanks to you and your novel “Patriots”, I have a way. I just sent her a copy with a gift card from Amazon.com. The gift card reads: “This is to thank you for voting for the stimulus bill and making the resulting economic collapse and hyperinflation profiled in this work of fiction a reality.” I just hope she gets the message, since it is a bit subtle especially for a politician.

I really like your book and am re-reading it. I hope you understand that I mean no disrespect to you in my means of protesting Hagan’s vote on the Stimulus Bill.

All the best, – John R., Waynesville, North Carolina

Economics and Investing:

From the most recent issue of The Appenzell Daily Bell comes an article that details both banking peril and some blatantly revisionist editing: European Commission report says $25 trillion in toxic EU bank holdings

Reader “DD” sent us this: Thousands losing jobs in housing crisis.

From reader H.D.: The Great Awakening: Boomers, Your Crisis Has Arrived (Part 1 of 3).

From G.G. came this link: German 10-year Bund auction fails for second successive time.

Laura H. said that liked this Wall Street Journal editorial: Capitalism Needs a Sound-Money Foundation.

Items from The Economatrix:

Martin Weiss: Stock Market to Fall at Least Another 40%

Credit Suisse Posts $5.2 Billion Loss

Pimco [runs world’s largest bond fund] Says World Crisis Faces “Second Wave”

Deluge of Financial Calamities Looming by Mid-March

Gold Bullion and Crude Oil Trading Analysis

Jobless Not Helpless: What to Do if You Lose Your Job

GM Offers Buyout to All 62,000 Hourly Workers

As US Economy Tanks, No Limits to Make Ends Meet

Aetna Net Income Hit By Investments; Shares Fall

As Vacant Office Space Grows, So Does Lenders’ Crisis

Shortage of Critical Commodities Already Seen

Odds ‘n Sods:

Hawaiian K. flagged a great article at Kevin Kelly’s Technium Blog: Amish Hackers

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SurvivalBlog’s Editor at Large Michael Z. Williamson pointed us to the comments accompanying this article: Second Circuit to Second Amendment: Drop Dead…. The article was informative, but I thought that the comment from “Bruce” was potentially quite practical: “[I]f you live in a rural area like I do, go out in the woods somewhere and dig a hole. Don’t fill it in. We’ll call it the ‘plausible deniability hole’.
Then, when the state comes for your guns (bullion, whatever), take the officers to the hole. When you get there, say ‘D**n, somebody dug up my guns! They musta been watching me from the ridge top! I had a funny feeling when I was digging it, but I didn’t see any people or cars, so I figured it was just nerves!'”

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From the JPFO web site: West Allis Wisconsin Open Carry Trial Update. As I’ve written before: Much like a muscle that atrophies with disuse, any right that goes unexercised for many years devolves into a privilege, and eventually can even be redefined as a crime.

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For just the next five days, the folks at Midwest Outfitters are giving SurvivalBlog readers first crack at a new batch of Portuguese surplus .308 ball 150 grain ammo in sealed 200 round battle packs or full cases. Something tells me that it won’t last long.

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“You’ve got to understand that we had a big ranch but we only got money once or twice a year out of it. The money wasn’t very free. All the money you got was in gold coin. I remember I was nearly fifteen or sixteen years old before I saw much paper money. It was all gold and silver. They didn’t have any greenbacks that I remember. My dad would take the wool and mutton to sell, and he’d come back with some tobacco sacks full of twenty-dollar gold pieces. He used to drive three or four-hundred head of sheep down to Cloverdale. They only brought about $2 a head. A big four horse load of wool taken over to Ukiah would pay for the groceries and clothes for the next winter. That was the big trip of the year, when I was a boy. That was when the money came in. That was the way that we used to get paid for things. Gold and silver coins. As kids, they used to let us play with the gold coins now and again. That was quite a celebration.” – Ernest E. Rawles (JWR’s grandfather)

Note from JWR:

Today’s first post is a cross-post (with permission) from Dr. Richard’s excellent Virginia Prepper’s Network Blog. His article addresses a fundamental issue that is a concern for most SurvivalBlog readers. Choosing between a rural retreat versus an “in town” approach is a decision that should be made deliberately, with plenty of study and prayer. There is not a “one size fits all” solution. Choosing a retreat locale depends upon your personal circumstances, the size of your extended family , your source of income, your health and fitness, your stage in life, and your personal envisioning of the future. OBTW, be sure to visit the Virginia Prepper’s Network blog site. If nothing else, it will give you links to the rapidly-growing network of state-level preparedness “Prepper Network” blogs and forums. (Of course, all the usual operational security (OPSEC) provisos apply. Some people, particular those in the non-Doomer camp of the Peak Oil crowd, have atrocious OPSEC discipline. If you get involved in a Prepper Network, please do your best to raise their collective OPSEC awareness, and don’t get sucked in to revealing your particulars, just because “everyone else is doing it.”)

Survival Retreat vs. Neighborhood Survival, by Dr. Richard

Earlier this month, I posted Etienne’s guest post Seeking/Starting a Survival Retreat in Virginia / Maryland / Pennsylvania / West Virginia. Today, I had lunch with Etienne de la Boetie and another prepper here in Loudoun County [, Virginia]. We had a long discussion about survival retreats vs neighborhood survival. Etienne is a big fan of the survival retreat concept. He previously had a retreat where he did not own the land but where he was able to store a travel trailer recreational vehicle in which he pre-positioned various preps and supplies. Unfortunately, his friend moved and sold the property. There are four major flaws in the survival retreat separate from your home concept:

  1. There are significant liabilities and social problems with communal retreats where one does not own the property – you are vulnerable to the actions of the others, particularly the property owner.
  2. Property left at unattended retreats is vulnerable to theft and vandalism. This is going to be a growing problem as the economic depression gets worse, especially if we have economic collapse.
  3. Getting to the retreat would be problematic in the event that it is actually needed – particularly in martial law scenarios where the military and law enforcement block traffic at key intersections or in cases where there are fuel shortages.
  4. Relatively undeveloped retreats with a trailer and undeveloped land may not be sufficiently developed for long-term survival and offer insufficient space for storage of the various preps and other items you need. Many of these items would likely be at your day-to-day residence and you cannot assume that you can transport everything at the last minute.

My view is that survival retreats only work if you live there full-time. Furthermore, although remote locations are further removed from the masses, they are also further removed from jobs, markets, customers, hospitals, and many other useful infrastructure and will be harder pressed to gather a sufficiently large group to cover all of the tasks needed in a true long-term survival scenario. Even the best special forces operator cannot defend his property 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Unfortunately, we are rapidly running out of time and it is probably already too late to relocate – especially if relocating means trying to sell your existing home in this real estate environment — in my neighborhood we haven’t had a sale in over eight months and anyone who bought in the last four years and did the traditional 20% down payment fixed 30 year mortgage now has negative equity.

I am a big proponent of the concept that your family, friends, neighbors, and church are your survival group. Yes, I understand that many are unprepared and clueless about both the threats and what they need to do to prepare for them. However, your home is your survival retreat. Strengthen it to the extent you can, but your odds improve exponentially if you can organize your neighborhood and help everyone survive against the threat(s) you are facing in your survival situation. You and those in the group who are better prepared or who have the right skills are the cadre needed to get organized and do what is needed. The rest of the neighborhood are your foot soldiers and do’ers. My philosophy is to lead and organize but that charity starts with those who are willing to help themselves and help the group in the survival situation. In a survival situation, your first challenges are to assess the hazards/priorities/immediate needs, organize the group, secure the neighborhood, and scrounge/barter/trade for needed resources.

Be a leader. There are many things you can do to help develop your neighborhood group of family, friends, neighbors, and fellow church members and increase the odds of the neighborhood surviving:

  • Get to know them.
  • Have potluck dinners.
  • Help them wake up and prepare.
  • Start a garden club to help start victory gardens.
  • Start a community watch program for your neighborhood.
  • Give them a copy of Chris Martenson’s Crash Course on the economy DVD. I bought a case of 30 and gave them as 2008 Christmas gifts.
  • Give copies of Holly Deyo’s book Dare to Prepare as gifts. I bought a case of 8 and gave them as 2008 Christmas gifts to family and several neighbors who got it and were starting to prep.
  • Store extra preps for charity and be prepared to give when it is needed for survival.
  • Learn about their skills, backgrounds, and interests – on my street we have a former Navy Corpsman/LEO/M16 Instructor/master scrounger/contractor/award winning barbeque chef who “gets it” and is starting to prepare, two nurses, a master gardener, an agricultural engineer / head of the 800-home neighborhood HOA, a Mormon family that does food storage, and six members of the neighborhood garden club run by our master gardener.
  • Buy tools that would be useful that could be shared like tillers.
  • Buy extra seed such as a seven year supply of Survival Seeds and be prepared to provide seeds for neighbors
  • Build a survival library of books and skills that you can use to train them when they need survival skills.
  • Buy several extra surplus rifles such as the Russian Mosin-Nagant or SKS rifles and stock extra ammunition to equip your “community watch” patrols.
  • Invite them to go to a shooting range with you.
  • Be prepared to give honest evaluations of whether individuals should relocate once a survival situation begins to relative’s homes or even public shelters if that is the best option for them.

You will be pleasantly surprised how many of your family, friends, neighbors, and fellow church members that are starting to wake up and realize the reality and danger of our current position. This number is increasing every week. Don’t simply assume that they are all clueless sheep – many simply need some education and a leader to show them the way.

Letter Re: Should You Invest in Real Estate?

To quote Robert Prechter, “Short Answer is: no. Long Answer: The worst thing about real estate is its lack of liquidity during a bear market. At least in the stock market, when your stock is down 60 percent and you realize you’ve made a horrendous mistake, you can call your broker and get out (unless you’re a mutual fund, insurance company or other institution with millions of shares, in which case, you’re stuck). With real estate, you can’t pick up the phone and sell. You need to find a buyer for your house in order to sell it. In a depression, buyers just go away. Mom and Pop move in with the kids, or the kids move in with Mom and Pop. People start living in their offices or moving their offices into their living quarters. Businesses close down. In time, there is a massive glut of real estate.”

This is entirely true if one looks back in history. However is buying a steak for Friday night’s dinner an investment? Or is it part of survival? So, we are caught on a cleft stick.
If we wait we will surely pay less [for a retreat property] as real estate prices go down. But then we will be faced with a time problem. Can we prepare adequately in the time available? Plants and other food supplies take time to grow, even if we do it successfully the first time, and few have the experience for that. Can we find the perfect location even when the price has gone down to more affordable levels?

Another very important factor that people all too often forget is land taxes. US states, by law cannot go bankrupt. That in turn means that taxes will not decrease if the general level of income goes down, perhaps to say half of the former level. If anything, taxes will increase. States still have to pay their loans. Particularly in many urban jurisdictions land taxes are near more modest income rental rates. Do you think you own that property free and clear, even if your mortgage is fully paid? Can you afford to pay sky high “rental rates” (land taxes) for your fully-paid land if you are getting half your previous income? Do you think that your income will remain at its current lofty level as more and more become unemployed and start competing for your job in an atmosphere where employers also are being squeezed?

It is time for some outside-of-the-box thinking here. Each jurisdiction is different, but somewhere there is a loophole if one searches diligently. In some jurisdictions, one can find methods of freezing or even permanently reducing land taxes. In one jurisdiction I know of, both are possible by registering your land as a tree farm, resulting in reduced and fixed taxes for 30 years. In other jurisdictions, it is possible to pay your taxes in advance, prorated according to the interest rate. Even more, in some jurisdictions one can legally occupy land, pay no taxes and no purchase price if you simply pay usage fees in advance, (usually quite nominal) to use the land for specific purposes that politicians have deemed as desirable. (Often in remote locations that politicians want to develop, ideal for bug out purposes. This often has its own problems, usually surmountable, but for illustration purposes it is adequate.)

It is time to analyze the situation determine our current strengths and weaknesses, and plan to take advantage of our current strengths. They may disappear. In the current situation, with government budgets all out of whack, negotiating is possible in nearly every jurisdiction. While we still have a job and a bit of spare money, we should be looking to cut deals. (and don’t say you have no money. If the toilet breaks tonight, you will find a way of fixing it tomorrow.) Today, we are not rushed, and government–however slow–is there, and there to serve us. (Who knows what will come after TSHTF?) We can ask questions and expect truthful answers when silly servants do not guess which direction our thoughts are trending. If things get tougher, they will surely guess. Find that loophole wherever you want to be and exploit it. Find a way under, over, around or through the problem.

Get started today. Tomorrow may be too late. And remember, the longest, or shortest, journey starts with but one step. Stop theorizing and get off your hind end. – Allen

Odds ‘n Sods:

Terminator: The Sarah Connor Chronicles returns to the small screen tomorrow evening. It has been moved to what has been called the Friday night “death slot.” There are rumors that the series will canceled. Cue the sad, sweet theme music to Firefly. 🙁 Meanwhile, there is plenty of buzz about the Terminator 4: Salvation feature film, which should be released on May 22nd.

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Craig W. flagged this: The (Zimbabwean) Dollar – The Point of No Return. (They’ve slashed another 12 zeroes!)

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Thanks to Stephen B. who was the first of several SurvivalBlog readers that sent us this: Mysterious Scientology Project Raises Questions in Wyoming. Hmmm… To update an old saying: “If it walks like a group retreat , and it quacks like a group retreat…”

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I noticed that spot silver and gold both took substantial jumps yesterday. I stand by my long-term prediction of silver reaching $50 per ounce. Buy on the dips. But course buy your Beans, Bullets, and Band-Aids first. In other investing and economic news, here are some items kindly gathered by Cheryl: GM Cutting 10,000 More Jobs — EU Banks May Need $32 Trillion Bailout — RBS, Morgan Stanley and UBS to Axe 6,500 Jobs — Ron Paul: Collapse of the Dollar — Stocks Reject Obama’s Plan — Gold Prices Rebound as Stocks Tank

Jim’s Quote of the Day:

“With the planned fiscal stimulus (taxing future generations), the National Debt will reach 100 percent of GDP during the Obama administration. When Argentina’s economy collapsed in 1998, their National Debt as a percentage of GDP was 65 percent. The Great Deniers say we are not Argentina. They say we are safe because the U.S. dollar is the reserve currency of the world. This is like jumping off a 20 story building and as you pass the 10th floor someone yells out the window asking how you are doing. You answer, ‘Good, so far’.” – James Quinn

Notes from JWR:

The current high bid in the SurvivalBlog Benefit Auction is at $1,510. This auction ends at midnight (Eastern time) on Sunday, February 15th. This auction is for a large mixed lot, which includes::

1.) A “be ready to barter” box of 36 full-capacity gun magazines, from my personal collection in JASBORR. This box includes: 12 – Used original Bundeswehr contract HK91 (G3) steel 20 round magazines, 6 – Used original Austrian FN-FAL steel 20 round magazines, with cartridge counter holes, 10 – Used AR-15/M16 USGI (all Colt made!) alloy 20 round magazines, 6 – Excellent condition original Glock Model 19 9mm 15 round pistol magazines (early type, with “U” notch), and 2 – New and very scarce original FN (Belgian-made) US M1/M2 Carbine blued steel 30 round magazines (marked “AYP”) . All of these magazines are of pre-1994 manufacture (and hence legal to possess in New York.) These magazines have a combined value of approximately $710, in today’s market. Note: If you live in a state where full capacity magazines are banned, then you must choose to: refrain from bidding, or designate a recipient in an unrestricted state, or re-donate the magazines for a subsequent auction.

2. ) A brand new-in-box Hot Jaw Bag Sealer and a box of 10 Mylar bags . (Every retreat group should have one these, since they are a tremendous labor saver!) This is a $200 retail value, courtesy of Ready Made Resources.

3.) A huge lot of DVDs, CD-ROMs and hard copy nuclear survival/self-sufficiency references (a $300+ value) donated by Richard Fleetwood of www.SurvivalCD.com

4.) A NukAlert compact radiation detector donated by at KI4U.com (a $160 retail value). 

5.) A gift certificate for $100 worth of books, courtesy of Back 40 Books.

6.) A case of 12 cans of recent production nitrogen-packed storage granola (mixed varieties) This is a $96 retail value, courtesy of CampingSurvival.com.

Thus, this auction has a combined value in excess of $1,565.

Again, this auction ends at midnight (Eastern time) on February 15th. Please e-mail us your bid. Your bid will be for the entire mixed lot.

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Today we present another entry for Round 21 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The contest prizes include:

First Prize: The writer of the best contributed article will be awarded two transferable Front Sight  “Gray” Four Day Training Course Certificates. This is an up to $4,000 value!
Second Prize: A three day course certificate from OnPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses.
Third Prize: A copy of my “Rawles Gets You Ready” preparedness course, from Arbogast Publishing

Round 21 ends on March 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that articles that relate practical “how to” skills for survival will have an advantage in the judging.

One View on the Ultimate Vehicular Bug Out by Jerry the Generator Guy

There hasn’t been much discussion regarding what might be a well-planned bug out. The following is an overview of our vehicular bug out plan. This overview is offered to assist others in fleshing out their specific needs and plans.

If you are like us, then you believe that the local area is not viable for long term personal survival. Thus we are forced to consider quickly getting to an alternate location. I won’t present our criteria for the destination as everyone has different needs.

We selected a locale for serious consideration and visited there. The “boots on the ground” impression is worth far more than any data mining that you may have done. We have also subscribed to their local paper for the last two years. Our initial positive impression of the area has increased with time. The local paper gives a detailed behind the scenes view of what the real issues in the area are or are not. Taking the local paper will also allow us to blend in faster with the locals by being talking about the latest area news. If you don’t get good “vibes” during a on scene visit then you should select another area. You have successfully avoided something that for you would have been a mistake.

We have listened to the various local radio and/or television stations here to determine which could be deemed “credible”. We judged local emergency reporting as this would show what the actual station resources and attitudes are. Most stations, in their emergency coverage, all seemed to simply parrot whatever was provided at the on site command center via the press sessions. Locally, a daytime country/western station has demonstrated careful and accurate news reporting in two major emergencies. They were the only station to send reporters to potential areas of concern to discover facts. An out of state radio station does better at forecasting our local weather than the nearby stations. We have noticed, during our travels, that most of the country/western stations seem to present a more accurate view of the news than the bobble heads on talk radio. This accuracy is probably a reflection of their “tell it like it is” listeners.

All of us should have thought out what event, or events, will trigger the launch of the exit plan. We recommend careful listening to various shortwave, local and out of state radio and television news. The news that is presented from a different locate will occasionally surprise you with different facts and/or opinions. Research for yourself the facts concerning any items of concern and/or interest. Draw your personal conclusion and take appropriate action(s) once facts are separated from propaganda.

Okay, so we now have a trigger mechanism and need a detailed plan to quickly and efficiently get from “here” to “there”. It’s time to start adding some detail to the draft plan. Since we know each specific vehicle MPG [and fuel tank capacity] then possible locations along the travel route, for fueling, can be determined. We plan to use the every two hour “Chinese Fire Drill” approach. Once every two hours, at previously-determined locations, all vehicles stop. All people receive a situation update and describe any items of concern. Vehicles are topped off with fuel. Everyone can get prepared food/drink items. Those who need a restroom stop quickly does so. [JWR Adds: Avoid using public rest areas. In the event os a crisis, they are likely gathering places for very desperate refugees that are nearly out of fuel! Pick out wide shoulders on side roads, well in advance. Assuming that you are traveling well-armed, these should offer some semblance of security when stopping. ] Plan your fuel allocation on worst case fuel consumption not best or even typical usage. We top off fuel at the two hour intervals since we are already stopped and can get extra use of the time. If we later discover any unexpected need to quickly travel for some distance we have already shifted “extra” fuel into the tanks. We plan to have each vehicle carry enough fuel so that it is able to make the entire trip without depending on any gas station being open. This approach allows success even if any vehicle does break down. All other vehicles can still finish the trip even if one is not quickly repairable. If the group is close to the destination then a tow rope will be used to [hopefully ] allow all vehicles to finish the trip. The tow rope can also be used to remove some road obstructions.

We will listen to various local radio stations along the planned route. You can get a list of the stations, their frequencies, locations and audience focus by entering the state name along with radio stations into Google; Example: Montana Radio Stations. This monitoring will allow us to become aware of any sudden need to modify our plan based on the actual local status. The monitoring is done by high school young adults and any adult who desires to assist. Each listener uses a set of earphones so they can focus on what is said. Any significant items that will be submitted to the group are written immediately on a notepad. Yes, we have a means to immediately update the group if the issue needs immediate attention. All drivers do nothing but drive. All other activities are done by others in the vehicle/group.

We strongly suggest that you, or several people, drive your planned exit route several times to discover any areas that might either become a potential problem or maybe offer an unexpected benefit. [JWR Adds: It is important to plan and practice a secondary and tertiary route.] You may be surprised–we were–about additional items that are noticed on more than one trip. At one location that we had planned to use for a stop, the overall local area feeling was very negative. We quickly decided to proceed further along the highway.

Check periodically during the year and see if the planned route has any recurring traffic or weather related problems. What’s the speed that you plan to travel between individual town “ X” and town “Y”? Your overall plan should use worst-case MPG and alternate plans already prepared if the road is not in the expected condition or weather is not as planned [hot/cold/windy/snowy ].

The travel maps that we have prepared all have some disinformation. The direction arrows for the travel route all point to the “from” and not the “going to” direction. In addition, the arrows stop one town short on both ends of the route.

There is an easy way to determine some of the potential traffic choke points. Find out where the highway gates that are used to block traffic during adverse weather are located. Carefully note these locations during your initial or other trips. My conclusion is these are the natural traffic restriction locations. We carry detailed topographic maps so that we can maneuver around any blockage along the route. You should have an answer ready for “highway X is blocked ahead. What are alternate choices?”

We will be towing a trailer with one vehicle. All goods that are planned to go with us are kept in what we call “here to there” locations. This means when the time comes to load there is no wasted time on “where is X?” or “do we take Y”? All such decisions have been made in advance.

Yes, we keep a supply of knocked-down boxes on site for planned use. The loading simply becomes everything from “here to there” goes – anything and everything else stays. An actual loading of the boxes has shown that the planned sequence, capacity and room is possible.

Note: You can gain a significant amount of extra “free” room by removing the back seat in each vehicle.

Have you ever followed a trailer and seen the lights flicker as it went over a bump? This defect is almost always caused by a poor wiring ground connection at the hitch. The ground capability can be tested by connecting a jumper cable between the metal tongue of the trailer and a good ground on the tow vehicle. If the lights on the trailer suddenly get brighter or a problem vanishes then you can be certain that the ground path needs work. We use an 8 gauge wire for the ground connection on both vehicles.

Should your route include travel on gravel roads then be aware that the crushed rock material may cut or even pop weak or almost worn out tires. Check the tire ply rating and tread depth.
Be sure that they are able to stand the expected use. Could your tow vehicle or trailer benefit from a stronger tire? You can check with a truck tire dealer to find tires with higher weight carrying capability. How do you know if a tire is intended for either a car or truck? Answer: Car tires are rated [marked on the sidewall ] to carry a specified weight at a maximum inflation pressure. Truck tires are rated to carry weight at a minimum inflation pressure. Example: We wanted load range D radial tires for our trailer. The local tire dealers all said that nothing was available (even via special order ). The truck tire dealer, in a nearby town, simply asked did we want the load range D in a Major Brand or the In House brand at $20 less for each?

We strongly recommend that you install radial tires on ALL vehicles. We have also observed a 0.5 MPG mileage increase with radial tires on two different trailers. My super wife and co-pilot says that she loves that the trailer doesn’t sway near as much in cross winds. In addition, when an 18-wheeler goes by the trailer isn’t sucked toward the adjacent lane. This change took her from having a white knuckle experience, when trucks passed, to being able to relax. We also installed shock absorbers on the trailers. The difference in bounce of the trailer when driving over a bump went from several up/down cycles to one. The shocks also reduced the amount of trailer would lean during a fast turn. Any items in the trailer benefit from a much smother ride.

When the potential needs seems to be imminent the trailer will be hitched, lights & brakes checked, loaded & ready to travel. The planned route and alternatives will be reviewed daily for any potential weather or other delays. Most states offer a 1-800 number and/or web site with road condition updates. Find those updates now, and put them on a list!

All fuel levels will be maintained at a 50% or higher level. Vehicle oil, spark plugs and all filters will be changed. We keep this replacement stock on site so that it is instantly available. These changes ensure that each vehicle can give us its best effort. We carry a replacement set of all radiator hoses and belts. We have each vehicle battery load checked semi-annually. Most locales that sell vehicle batteries provide a free test service. We will replace any hose/belt/pump/battery/brake that is questionable. All vehicle light bulbs are also checked . All vehicle tires are inflated to the pressure that we want to use for best weight carrying capability.

Fuel tanks are filled to capacity, immediately before leaving, from on site storage. All vehicles will be parked such that on “GO” each driver can start the motor and quickly move out. Our thought is that by advance preparation we will gain a minimum advantage of 10 minutes. At 60 MPH we will be 10 miles distance down the road ahead of the majority.

We plan, by taking action at the trigger, to hopefully be at the travel end point before most people are even started. The Hurricane Katrina news coverage reinforced the fact that that early travelers were able to move at full highway speeds. Later departures were moving very slow.

Summary: We have tried to make plans for two different scenarios; 1.) We have several days to get ready, or 2.) The need is sudden. In either case we have all necessary items on site for prep and pack. The planning buys us some of the very important variable called time.

Planning also helps to eliminate the “what do we do” panic response mode. Everyone should have or develop now, at a minimum, a who/when/what/where plan. The plan doesn’t cost much, if any, cash to develop. Equipment without a plan doesn’t have any value.

Note: We do not provide discussion on specific roads to be traveled or planned speed as this to should be one of your group discussion items. Unique roads, weather, vehicles and group plans each offer a different series of opportunities and challenges. We hope to see you at the “Troy Barter Faire”! (For those of you wondering what this means, see Chapter 14 in “Patriots“.)

Letter Re: My First Attempt at Forming a Retreat Group

Jim;
I prayed, reflected and then invited several families to work with me to form a group. Here are my results:
– I formed an agenda, created a ‘private’ [password-protected] web site where I posted articles (in PDF files), created links to web sites like SurvivalBlog, and set a date to gather at my home
– I found near universal interest as folks are scared about the economy and direction our country has taken
– People eagerly attended meetings (every two weeks), opined, and felt very good about gathering
– Three months into gathering I printed up some rules and requests if a retreat was to be formed on our property.

To sum:
Do your best to be prepared.
If your personal economy is tight sell your chatchkis [trinkets and collectibles] and invest in ‘beans, bullets and blankets.’
If you wished to become part of a private retreat on our ranch there were minimum levels of preparation a family would subscribe to.
If money was an issue, in order to prepare, meet with me and we’d find a way to to reach their goals. (That is, I was willing to help them financially if they committed to help themselves)

The results following that meeting:
– One person stepped up and accepted my offer of mutually beneficial financial help. We are getting a pole barn and they are getting much needed cash. They are helping us so we can help them become better prepared. They want ‘in’ our retreat
– One family has been preparing for many years and wants ‘in.’
– One lady e-mailed and told me there are not ‘enough hours in the day’ to become prepared and she and her husband backed out. We never heard from the friends that they brought one weekend either.
– We stopped hearing from three other families completely.

My conclusions (and I’d welcome some insights)
1. Many folks like to talk, few are willing to do the work and make the sacrifice in current lifestyle to prepare.
2. Considering what it takes to truly prepare some are overwhelmed. Sadly, their response is not to reach out for help, when feeling that way, but to ‘do nothing.’
3. Forming a good group is tough. We all know the statistics of marriage and divorce. Entering into a committed preparedness relationship may be as tough or tougher. Forming a group to rely on one another in the most dire of circumstances is daunting, indeed.
4. Finally, what Winston Churchill said applies: “Never, never, never quit.” The safety of my family may well rely upon my ability to form an effective retreat group. I’ll take the above lessons in and continue adding onto the two families who have opted into our retreat. I’ll make a plan B, and then a plan C, and so on. I’ll keep doing all I can to ensure we have the best provisions, location and, most importantly, the best people we can find to survive what may come. – D.S.