Influenza Pandemic Update:

Swine Flu Multi-Shot Vaccine May Overwhelm States “Two injections will be required three weeks apart for swine flu, also known as H1N1, and a third will be needed for seasonal flu, health officials said at a meeting today at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in Atlanta. Children younger than 9 years old will need four shots, the CDC said. … People older than age 50 are getting swine flu at far lower rates than younger people, evidence they may have some immunity from prior exposures to a similar virus, and will only need one shot, the CDC said. … The agency estimates that at least 50 million vaccine doses will be available in the U.S. by Oct. 15, and enough vaccine to immunize everyone in the country will be available later in the season. … William Schaffner, an influenza expert at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee, said in an interview at the flu conference, “one shot probably gives you very little immunity, 10 to 20 percent at most.”

98% of US Flu Cases are Swine Flu

How to Legally Say “No” to Vaccinations

Two more swine flu deaths in Victoria

HHS Extends Liability Shield to Antivirals Used for Swine Flu

Winter begins in the southern hemisphere: Swine Flu Emergency Declared in Buenos Aires

Soaring Death Rate in Argentina From Swine Flu

Four Fresh Cases of Swine Flu Found in India; Total 93

Thailand Confirms First Swine Flu Fatalities

UK: Glastonbury Festival Hit By Swine Flu



Economics and Investing:

New Hampshire’s Senator Gregg slams the growth of the Federal Debt on an IBD editorial: A Debt The Founders Wouldn’t Believe. (Thanks to GG for the link.)

GG also suggested this piece: Depression 2.0 by Michael S. Malone

Patrick M. like this one: The Great American Bubble Machine

Items from The Economatrix:

Banks Reap Record $9.8 Billion Trading Derivative in First Quarter “The U.S. banking industry said it made $9.8 billion during the first quarter trading derivatives and securities as investors started returning to the markets amid signs the recession bottomed.”

States Form Committee to Oppose GM Sale to US, Voiding of Dealer Contracts

Bonds Beat Loans For Banks Driving Down Yields “Deposits at the San Antonio-based bank are growing a record 20 percent this year while loans shrink for the first time since mid-2007. Business owners are “being extremely cautious,” said Evans, who is pumping depositors’ money into Treasuries and municipal bonds.”

China to Buy $80 Billion of Gold

Analyst: Gold Still a Safe Haven

The Coming Economic Cold War Will Be Obama’s Challenge

A Stake in the Heart of 25,000 California Small Businesses

Breaking The Bank

New Jobless Claims Rise Unexpectedly to 627,000 Continuing claims rise to 6.74 million; 2.4 million are receiving extended benefits

After Spending, GOP Asks: Where Are The Jobs? “White House spokesman Robert Gibbs said early this week that the president expects the nation will reach 10 percent unemployment within the next few months. In January, President Barack Obama’s economic team predicted unemployment would rise no higher than 8 percent with the help of $787 billion in new government spending. The unemployment rate in May reached a 25-year high of 9.4 percent. Obama aides have said that the economy took a turn for the worse since their initial forecast. Republicans concerned about the Obama administration’s big spending on economic stimulus, energy and health care are asking, “Where are the jobs?” “It’s about to get worse for middle-class families and small businesses,” [Boehner] said. “Democrats are pushing a government takeover of our health care system that will cost at least a trillion dollars.”

Obama Advisor Not Ready to Back Second Stimulus Axelrod says we are going to go through rough times, unemployment to jump



Odds ‘n Sods:

There was a good article recently posted over at The Silver Bear Cafe: Help! The Grocery Store Shelves are Empty

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Andrew D. sent us this video link: Flooded River Destroys Road In Minutes. This illustrates hydraulic power–in this case circumventing an under-engineered culvert. Roughly the same thing happened at our old ranch, where the previous owner’s three-foot diameter culvert on the creek was washed out by springtime floodwaters. I replaced it in 1994 with a six-footer, and so far as I know it is still there, and the road above it is still intact.

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A reader in New Mexico wrote to ask if I prefer grid-tied or standalone photovoltaic (PV) systems. My general preference is for standalone, because they have less vulnerability to EMP. But the new 30% Federal tax credit on grid-tied systems tips the scales in that direction. To the best of my knowledge, there is nothing in the tax code that says that you cannot take the tax credit, but then make the system standalone, at a later date. Oh, and speaking of PVs, don’t miss out on the sale price on REC 220 Watt modules from Ready Made Resources. They have an amazing price.

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More than three years after we first mentioned it in SurvivalBlog, The New York Times finally paid some attention to the NAIS issue : Rebellion on the Range Over a Cattle ID Plan

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R. mentioned this page at the LifeHacker site: Build a Cheaper Backyard Greenhouse. Needless to say, this design is not intended to take a snow load, and hence must be disassembled seasonally. And since PVC eventually degrades and get brittle in sunlight, it is best to paint the tubing (and any connectors, if used), once you’ve finished constructing the framework.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"…the Constitution does not repose in the Congress the power to bail out individuals or private industry: Bailouts violate the Equal Protection doctrine because the Congress can’t fairly pick and choose who to bail out and who to let expire; they violate the General Welfare Clause because they benefit only a small group and not the general public; they violate the Due Process Clause because they interfere with contracts already entered into… Worse still, Congress lacks the power to let someone else decide how to spend the peoples’ money. "- Judge Andrew Napolitano, November 25, 2008



Note from JWR:

The folks at Ready Made Resources mentioned that they have reduced their prices on many items, and now offer free shipping on most items. I also noticed that they’ve re-designed their web site. In the nearly four years that they’ve been advertising on SurvivalBlog, I’ve heard nothing but good things about the customer service provided by Ready Made Resources. Whenever there has been a glitch–and that has been rare–they’ve always gone the extra mile to make things right. In one instance, back during the severe shortage of Mountain House foods in 2008, a large storage food order was delayed, and an angry customer cancelled the order, stopping payment on his check. But the staff of Ready Made Resources shipped out his order anyway, even after knowing that they wouldn’t be paid for it. That sort of “returning kindness for wrath” is indicative of the integrity of the people that run the company. They’ve earned my trust, and they deserve your patronage.



Ug-99 and The Ugly Times Ahead–There’ll Be Fungus Among Us

My consulting clients often ask me me for predictions. “What’s your timeframe, Mister Rawles?” I hear that in almost every consulting call. My clients ask: “When will the US economy crater?” I tell them that is impossible to predict, because there are so many variables and interdependencies, and because the markets are so heavily manipulated. They also ask me: Is the H1N1 Flu sure to mutate in to a more virulent strain, and if so, when?” I answer: “That is impossible to predict.” I’m also often quizzed about the Ug-99 wheat fungus (aka “Durable Wheat Rust”, or simply “the stem rust”). Clearly, it is advancing , but without a specific timeframe. Scientists are now calling the advance of Ug-99 around the globe “inevitable”. My greatest fear is that instead of just being spread gradually by the wind, the stem rust will make “leaps”, via the cargo holds of ships, and hence end up in the world’s “bread baskets”: Australia, the Ukraine, the US, and Canada. In the long run, containment is seen as almost impossible. Thusfar, attempts to create a rust-resistant wheat variety have been thwarted by the rust’s rapid mutation rate.

Let’s look at some numbers: 20% of the calories consumed by the human population of our planet currently comes from wheat. That means that there will likely be a caloric shortfall for a number of years–until either wheat fields are re-planted in some different crop, or until a viable rust-resistant wheat variety is developed.

I encourage readers to study the Ug-99 threat, and think through its implications on a macro (global) scale. Then think through the implications of a wheat famine at a personal level. Where will you and your family get your daily bread? Have you stored up for seven lean years?

I cannot more strongly urge SurvivalBlog readers: Get your food storage squared away, immediately. Supplies are plentiful now, and prices are still reasonable. But the threats that we are facing are numerous, large, and all too likely. And, of these, UG-99 is almost a certainty in the next decade, and it will directly affect the global food supply. Stop dawdling and get ready. You owe it to your family to do the best that you can to prepare.

In a recent exchange of correspondence abut Ug-99 with reader Jim M., he wrote: “I think stored food should be viewed more as a supplement, especially wheat in view of UG-99. Alternative sources of complex carbohydrates should be sought by preppers. Other grain seed should be planted and replenished by those with land and climate to do so: oats, barley, rye, spelt, millet, maize, quinoa. A few thousand square feet of each suitable grain type would provide continuous seed viability as well as training for larger-scale crops and harvests in the future. Starchy tubers could also figure greatly in extending long-term food stores. Anyone with even a sunny balcony should be able to grow their own potatoes for instance and there are plenty of other tubers they can try.”

Preparedness is keyed to trends and to the emergence of general threats, not specific dates. It has not been since Y2K that we’ve had specific date target. And that was clearly an exception to the general rule. Perhaps we’ll someday read about a large asteroid with a predicted earth-crossing orbit (like Apophis), and have a multi-year countdown to disaster. But otherwise,we just have to be ready at all times for a variety of potential situations.



France in 1940 as a Parallel to a Modern-Day Golden Horde on the Highways

Dear James:
I recently purchased a book that may be of interest to my fellow SurvivalBlog readers: Hanna Diamond’s book Fleeing Hitler: France 1940. This book is currently being remaindered at the Canadian Internet bookseller Chapters.ca. The jacket copy states: “In June 1940, as Hitler’s armies advanced on Paris, the French people became refugees in their own country. This is the story of their tragic flight”.

It describes what’s probably the largest, best-documented mass evacuations of a major Western city in modern times. Invasion by Germany certainly constitutes the Schumer hitting the fan in most people’s opinion; the French certain thought so; millions of them bugged out ahead of the Wehrmacht. In a nutshell, their experiences validate current survivalist thinking about bugging out; the importance of getting out early, what to bring and what to leave, having a reliable Bug-out vehicle (BOV), Bug-out location (BOL) a well-planned route, etc.

The French experience in 1940 is also an interesting contrast to what might happen under similarly desperate circumstances in modern-day North America; there’s be far more motor vehicles and guns, and fewer draft animals. It’s a sobering prospect. Diamond also highlights the ineptitude and helplessness of a government in turmoil; in 1940, waiting for help, let alone useful information from the French government was not a viable option, and notes the surge in lawlessness as the refugees became increasingly desperate.

I’d recommend the book to anybody contemplating or planning an eventual bug out. Sincerely, – R.E., A Somewhat Prepared Canadian



Letter Re: An Upcoming Retreat Purchase — Sell Gold or Take a Mortgage?

Jim,
We love your site. It is part of our daily must reads. While driving to view possible retreat locations today, we printed out your advice on retreat locations and read it again as we drove to the determined area. After looking most of the day, we literally stumble upon (because it was not visible from the road – only a for sale sign) a nearly perfect location, several springs, trees, hillside with level areas, in the top three in all categories of your retreat lists, etc.

In looking to make an offer we wanted your advice regarding financing the purchase. Would you recommend selling gold reserves, home equity line of credit (HELOC) on debt-free primary residence, seller financing to the extent available or institutional financing? Why and/or why not for each? Thank you so much for all you are doing. You are providing an extremely valuable and much appreciated service. – Ken I.

JWR Replies: I can understand the temptation to to hang on to your gold and take a mortgage, but to be conservative and low-risk, my advice is to be debt free. We will probably experience another year or two of deflation before inflation re-emerges. Avoid debt in deflationary times! Mortgage debt is a killer when layoffs occur in droves. So go ahead and sell your gold. But, if possible, wait for a short-term rally.



Letter Re: Last Minute G.O.O.D. Versus Well-Considered Early Relocation

Dear Editor:
John M.’s letter was excellent, polite, and to the point.

The following are my rules for townies:

1. If your water comes out of a faucet or a bottle, and you can not safely walk to a permanent backup source in less than 10 minutes every day, then you will die.

2. If you do not raise your own food, or personally know the family that you bought it from, you will either die, or be forever controlled by someone with a clipboard and a list, and you will wish you were dead.

3. If you live in the city because your job is more important than your life, then don’t bother bugging out. The only Job you are likely to get out here in the country is digging graves for people that think like you.

4. A centuries old rule of farming: It takes a minimum of 10 years of farming a piece of ground to know it. So, you’re going to compress a decade of intimate knowledge into a weekend, because you read a book? We’ll send the guy mentioned in Rule #3 out to your shack next spring.

5. Unless you have a fully stocked and equip 19th century-style working farm to escape to, with food for two years stored in place for humans and livestock, you are simply a well-intentioned refugee, or an unwelcome house guest.

6. [Forget “foraging”.] In the 1850s, (for the purpose of sizing reservations), it was determined that a skillful Native American needed 100 square miles (10 miles x 10 miles) minimum, to live off the land, per person. There was a lot more game back then, and less afraid of humans. You’re going to be competing with around 300 million hungry human bellies, every morning.

7. Ten cases of canned food fits in a 2’x2’x2′ area. Around 30 cases will give you one meal a day for a year, and fits under a [tall] bed. The gear, tools, food, and clothing needed for a family of four for a year in the wild would fill one or more semi-trailers. So you think that you’re going to effortlessly bug out with a truck and trailer at O-Dark-Thirty and survive? Stay home, or become breakfast for less dainty bellies.

Finally: There are two terms you hope never appear in your obituary: “unfortunate accident”, or “shallow grave”.

If you and your gear are not already pre-positioned on your own homestead, and your city job is just seasonal or part time for the Gov.Bux, you are probably bound to end up in one of these two categories by bugging out.

Prepare, but stay where you are, unless the emergency is a temporary natural event – Feral Farmer

JWR Replies: I concur that taking halfway measures is an invitation to becoming a statistic in a societal collapse. As I’ve stressed countless times, the best approach is to live at your retreat year-round. A marginal second choice is to maintain a fully-stocked retreat that is constantly under the watchful eye of a trusted friend or relative that can also keep your fruit nut trees watered and look after your livestock. But even then, you’ll likely lack the requisite large-scale gardening experience in your retreat’s particular climate zone. You will also lack having developed trust relationships with your neighbors–something crucial to survival. It is incredibly naive for anyone to anticipate that they can “bug out” with everything that they’ll need. Even if you are fortunate enough arrive with your vehicle and trailer intact, as “Feral Farmer” points out, you will be way behind the power curve: under-equipped, and under-provisioned. And as, John M. mentioned, those that are under-prepared will probably end up in a life of thievery, rather than watch their families starve. The goal here is to be part of the solution, rather than part of the problem.

I also concur with Feral Farmer’s observations on foraging. The hunting and even the fishing pressure will be tremendous. I’ve heard from consulting clients in California’ Coast Range that deer harvest have dropped to pitifully low numbers in the past five years, because of the depredations of Mountain Lions. (Which have been elevated to protected species status in the People’s Paradise of California.) The chances of filling just one deer tag, they say, are now slim except for anyone that has the time to willing to “hunt hard” throughout California’s short deer season. So, I ask: If this has happened when there were just a few thousand excess mountain lions, then what will happen when there are an extra 5-to-10 million deer hunters wandering around California, shooting at anything that moves? (The California deer population has already dropped from more than one million to an estimated 485,000. That is not a lot of deer to go around, WTSHTF. And what will happen to the freshwater fishing stocks, when there are hundreds of thousands of set lines being worked, year round?





Economics and Investing:

From Ben M.: Bad news for GM; China ‘to block’ Hummer takeovei

Currie and GG both sent us a link to a piece over at Zero Hedge: Here Comes Russian Bank Nationalzation “Russia is considering a banking bail-out that will go further than measures taken by the US, as fears grow that bad loans could paralyse the economy.” Oh, by the way, GG dubbed the Russian bailout “The MOABsky”

David R. flagged this data point: Dresdner Kleinwort Securities Withdraws as Primary Fed Dealer. David’s comment: “This is important because being a primary dealer was the equivalent of having a license to print money (under fractional reserve lending rules). For Dresdner to be withdrawing is bad, bad, bad news for the dollar. This is just an early warning sign but the signs are piling up. The dollar is in trouble.”

And here are four items, all courtesy of Karen H.:

China’s ships idle but Shanghai port charges ahead “This is the first time Shanghai’s shipping container business declined since it went into full-scale operation (20 years ago), it shows how deeply the financial crisis has affected the real economy,” Huang told a maritime conference in Shanghai.

Unemployed Hit the Road to Find Jobs

Romer upbeat on US economy

Selling toothpaste to Tehran



Odds ‘n Sods:

Reader “PD” pointed me to an interesting video segment on Russian survivalists.

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FG mentioned a great news segment about an 89 year-old woman and her 1964 Comet that she has driven 540,000 miles. FG notes: “She even drove herself alone to her 70th class reunion, a 3,000 mile trip! She also knows how to protect herself on her long journeys. (Check out what she carries in her handbag!)” JWR Adds: This octogenarian demonstrates the virtues of both good preventative maintenance and situational awareness!

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H.O.F. e-mailed me to mention that all 36 episodes of the post-pandemic societal collapse television series Jeremiah are now available as video streaming “instant plays”, from NetFlix subscribers. H.O.F. notes: “The MGM series was filmed in and around Vancouver, Canada, which explains why so many scenes are cold, rainy, and snowy'” And he added this warning: “There is some crude language, violence, and gratuitous bare chests, so this series is not for the kids. Oh yes, it also has a couple of anti-religious rants, but that is to be expected from the denizens of Hollywood.”



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The paper system being founded on public confidence and having of itself no intrinsic value, it is liable to great and sudden fluctuations, thereby rendering property insecure and the wages of labor unsteady and uncertain. The corporations which create the paper money can not be relied upon to keep the circulating medium uniform in amount. In times of prosperity, when confidence is high, they are tempted by the prospect of gain or by the influence of those who hope to profit by it to extend their issues of paper beyond the bounds of discretion and the reasonable demands of business; and when these issues have been pushed on from day to day, until public confidence is at length shaken, then a reaction takes place, and they immediately withdraw the credits they have given, suddenly curtail their issues, and produce an unexpected and ruinous contraction of the circulating medium, which is felt by the whole community. The banks by this means save themselves, and the mischievous consequences of their imprudence or cupidity are visited upon the public." – President Andrew Jackson, Excerpt from his farewell speech on March 4, 1837



Note from JWR:

Today we present a guest article by two Stratfor editors. You may recall that Fred Burton is one of my contemporaries. (He was workig in the CI/HUMINT world when I was in the SIGINT world.)



Security at Places of Worship: More Than a Matter of Faith, by Scott Stewart and Fred Burton

In recent months, several high-profile incidents have raised awareness of the threat posed by individuals and small groups operating under the principles of leaderless resistance. These incidents have included lone wolf attacks against a doctor who performed abortions in Kansas, an armed forces recruitment center in Arkansas and the U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum in Washington, D.C. Additionally, a grassroots jihadist cell was arrested for attempting to bomb Jewish targets in the Bronx and planning to shoot down a military aircraft at an Air National Guard base in Newburgh, N.Y.

In addition to pointing out the threat posed by grassroots cells and lone wolf operatives, another common factor in all of these incidents is the threat of violence to houses of worship. The cell arrested in New York left what they thought to be active improvised explosive devices outside the Riverdale Temple and the Riverdale Jewish Community Center. Dr. George Tiller was shot and killed in the lobby of the Reformation Lutheran Church in Wichita. Although Abdulhakim Mujahid Muhammad conducted his attacks against a Little Rock recruiting center, he had conducted preoperational surveillance and research on targets that included Jewish organizations and a Baptist church in places as far away as Atlanta and Philadelphia. And while James von Brunn attacked the Holocaust Museum, he had a list of other potential targets in his vehicle that included the National Cathedral.

In light of this common thread, it might be instructive to take a more detailed look at the issue of providing security for places of worship.

Awareness: The First Step

Until there is awareness of the threat, little can be done to counter it. In many parts of the world, such as Iraq, India and Pakistan, attacks against places of worship occur fairly frequently. It is not difficult for religious leaders and members of their congregations in such places to be acutely aware of the dangers facing them and to have measures already in place to deal with those perils. This is not always the case in the United States, however, where many people tend to have an “it can’t happen here” mindset, believing that violence in or directed against places of worship is something that happens only to other people elsewhere.

This mindset is particularly pervasive among predominantly white American Protestant and Roman Catholic congregations. Jews, Mormons, Muslims and black Christians, and others who have been targeted by violence in the past, tend to be far more aware of the threat and are far more likely to have security plans and measures in place to counter it. The Jewish community has very well-developed and professional organizations such as the Secure Community Network (SCN) and the Anti-Defamation League that are dedicated to monitoring threats and providing education about the threats and advice regarding security. The Council on American-Islamic Relations has taken on a similar role for the Muslim community and has produced a “Muslim community safety kit” for local mosques. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (LDS) also has a very organized and well-connected security department that provides information and security advice and assistance to LDS congregations worldwide.

There are no functional equivalents to the SCN or the LDS security departments in the larger Catholic, evangelical Protestant and mainline Protestant communities, though there are some organizations such as the recently established Christian Security Network that have been attempting to fill the void.

Following an incident, awareness of the threat seems to rise for a time, and some houses of worship will put some security measures in place, but for the most part such incidents are seen as events that take place elsewhere, and the security measures are abandoned after a short time.

Permanent security measures are usually not put in place until there has been an incident of some sort at a specific house of worship, and while the triggering incident is sometimes something that merely provides a good scare, other times it is a violent action that results in tragedy. Even when no one is hurt in the incident, the emotional damage caused to a community by an act of vandalism or arson at a house of worship can be devastating.

It is important to note here that not all threats to places of worship will emanate from external actors. In the midst of any given religious congregation, there are, by percentages, people suffering from serious mental illnesses, people engaged in bitter child-custody disputes, domestic violence situations and messy divorces. Internal disputes in the congregation can also lead to feuds and violence. Any of these situations can (and have) led to acts of violence inside houses of worship.

Security Means More than Alarms and Locks

An effective security program is more than just having physical security measures in place. Like any man-made constructs, physical security measures — closed-circuit television (CCTV), alarms, cipher locks and so forth — have finite utility. They serve a valuable purpose in institutional security programs, but an effective security program cannot be limited to these things. Devices cannot think or evaluate. They are static and can be observed, learned and even fooled. Also, because some systems frequently produce false alarms, warnings in real danger situations may be brushed aside. Given these shortcomings, it is quite possible for anyone planning an act of violence to map out, quantify and then defeat or bypass physical security devices. However, elaborate planning is not always necessary. Consider the common scenario of a heavy metal door with very good locks that is propped open with a trashcan or a door wedge. In such a scenario, an otherwise “secure” door is defeated by an internal security lapse.

However, even in situations where there is a high degree of threat awareness, there is a tendency to place too much trust in physical security measures, which can become a kind of crutch — and, ironically, an obstacle to effective security.

In fact, to be effective, physical security devices always require human interaction. An alarm is useless if no one responds to it, or if it is not turned on; a lock is ineffective if it is not engaged. CCTV cameras are used extensively in corporate office buildings and some houses of worship, but any competent security manager will tell you that, in reality, they are far more useful in terms of investigating a theft or act of violence after the fact than in preventing one (although physical security devices can sometimes cause an attacker to divert to an easier target).

No matter what kinds of physical security measures may be in place at a facility, they are far less likely to be effective if a potential assailant feels free to conduct preoperational surveillance, and is free to observe and map those physical security measures. The more at ease someone feels as they set about identifying and quantifying the physical security systems and procedures in place, the higher the odds they will find ways to beat the system.

A truly “hard” target is one that couples physical security measures with an aggressive, alert attitude and sense of awareness. An effective security program is proactive — looking outward to where most real threats are lurking — rather than inward, where the only choice is to react once an attack has begun to unfold. We refer to this process of proactively looking for threats as protective intelligence.

The human interaction required to make physical security measures effective, and to transform a security program into a proactive protective intelligence program, can come in the form of designated security personnel. In fact, many large houses of worship do utilize off-duty police officers, private security guards, volunteer security guards or even a dedicated security staff to provide this coverage. In smaller congregations, security personnel can be members of the congregation who have been provided some level of training.

However, even in cases where there are specially designated security personnel, such officers have only so many eyes and can only be in a limited number of places at any one time. Thus, proactive security programs should also work to foster a broad sense of security awareness among the members of the congregation and community, and use them as additional resources.

Unfortunately, in many cases, there is often a sense in the religious community that security is bad for the image of a particular institution, or that it will somehow scare people away from houses of worship. Because of this, security measures, if employed, are often hidden or concealed from the congregation. In such cases, security managers are deprived of many sets of eyes and ears. Certainly, there may be certain facets of a security plan that not everyone in the congregation needs to know about, but in general, an educated and aware congregation and community can be a very valuable security asset.

Training

In order for a congregation to maintain a sense of heightened awareness it must learn how to effectively do that. This training should not leave people scared or paranoid — just more observant. People need to be trained to look for individuals who are out of place, which can be somewhat counterintuitive. By nature, houses of worship are open to outsiders and seek to welcome strangers. They frequently have a steady turnover of new faces. This causes many to believe that, in houses of worship, there is a natural antagonism between security and openness, but this does not have to be the case. A house of worship can have both a steady stream of visitors and good security, especially if that security is based upon situational awareness.

At its heart, situational awareness is about studying people, and such scrutiny will allow an observer to pick up on demeanor mistakes that might indicate someone is conducting surveillance. Practicing awareness and paying attention to the people approaching or inside a house of worship can also open up a whole new world of ministry opportunities, as people “tune in” to others and begin to perceive things they would otherwise miss if they were self-absorbed or simply not paying attention. In other words, practicing situational awareness provides an excellent opportunity for the members of a congregation to focus on the needs and burdens of other people.

It is important to remember that every attack cycle follows the same general steps. All criminals — whether they are stalkers, thieves, lone wolves or terrorist groups — engage in preoperational surveillance (sometimes called “casing,” in the criminal lexicon). Perhaps the most crucial point to be made about preoperational surveillance is that it is the phase when someone with hostile intentions is most apt to be detected — and the point in the attack cycle when potential violence can be most easily disrupted or prevented.

The second most critical point to emphasize about surveillance is that most criminals are not that good at it. They often have terrible surveillance tradecraft and are frequently very obvious. Most often, the only reason they succeed in conducting surveillance without being detected is because nobody is looking for them. Because of this, even ordinary people, if properly instructed, can note surveillance activity.

It is also critically important to teach people — including security personnel and members of the congregation — what to do if they see something suspicious and whom to call to report it. Unfortunately, a lot of critical intelligence is missed because it is not reported in a timely manner — or not reported at all — mainly because untrained people have a habit of not trusting their judgment and dismissing unusual activity. People need to be encouraged to report what they see.

Additionally, people who have been threatened, are undergoing nasty child-custody disputes or have active restraining orders protecting them against potentially violent people need to be encouraged to report unusual activity to their appropriate points of contact.

As a part of their security training, houses of worship should also instruct their staff and congregation members on procedures to follow if a shooter enters the building and creates what is called an active-shooter situation. These “shooter” drills should be practiced regularly — just like fire, tornado or earthquake drills. The teachers of children’s classes and nursery workers must also be trained in how to react.

Liaison

One of the things the SCN and ADL do very well is foster security liaison among Jewish congregations within a community and between those congregations and local, state and federal law enforcement organizations. This is something that houses of worship from other faiths should attempt to duplicate as part of their security plans.

While having a local cop in a congregation is a benefit, contacting the local police department should be the first step. It is very important to establish this contact before there is a crisis in order to help expedite any law enforcement response. Some police departments even have dedicated community liaison officers, who are good points of initial contact. There are other specific points of contact that should also be cultivated within the local department, such as the SWAT team and the bomb squad.

Local SWAT teams often appreciate the chance to do a walk-through of a house of worship so that they can learn the layout of the building in case they are ever called to respond to an emergency there. They also like the opportunity to use different and challenging buildings for training exercises (something that can be conducted discreetly after hours). Congregations with gyms and weight rooms will often open them up for local police officers to exercise in, and some congregations will also offer police officers a cup of coffee and a desk where they can sit and type their reports during evening hours.

But the local police department is not the only agency with which liaison should be established. Depending on the location of the house of worship, the state police, state intelligence fusion center or local joint terrorism task force should also be contacted. By working through state and federal channels, houses of worship in specific locations may even be eligible for grants to help underwrite security through programs such as the Department of Homeland Security’s Urban Areas Security Initiative Nonprofit Security Grant Program.

The world is a dangerous place and attacks against houses of worship will continue to occur. But there are proactive security measures that can be taken to identify attackers before they strike and help prevent attacks from happening or mitigate their effects when they do. – Scott Stewart and Fred Burton, Stratfor