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The Long View- Part 2, by J.M.

I try to have a long view, one that is both near and far in perspective. Whenever significant events occur, I do a quick review of my potential events risk analysis to see if anything’s changed that might impact how I’m prepared. In this article, I am taking a look at the preparations required for a long-term scenario, in the event of a major societal break down. We have covered the need for repairs and tools to make repairs, when items or parts and supplies won’t be easily replaced or shipped to us.

Food (continued)

Yesterday, we also covered a significant portion on the subject of food, particularly on gardening and practicing now to supply your family’s food needs, but we haven’t completed this discussion just yet.

Hunting and Fishing

Are hunting and fishing part of your long-term survival food plans? Bear in mind that after a major TEOTWAKI disaster a lot of other people are going to be planning on the same thing, and the wild game populations will probably plummet for the first few years. As with everything else, if you’ve never hunted or fished and processed your take, post-SHTF is not the best time to learn to do so. If you’d like some idea of how to get started hunting, butchering, and cooking wild game, I highly recommend Steven Rinella’s series of books (“The Complete Guide to Hunting, Butchering, and Cooking Wild Game: Volume 1: Big Game [1]” and “Volume 2: Small Game and Fowl [2]”). Just remember that reading about it is a far cry from actually doing it.

You also need to adjust your approach when it comes to long-term food procurement. If you’re hunting or fishing to survive, you need to move from an “activity” mindset to a “harvesting” one. You’re trying to obtain food to survive, not for the enjoyment of the activity itself. This means things like setting traps and checking on them regularly instead of spending the day stalking a deer, and setting up a trotline with multiple spring hooks [3] or yo-yo fishing reels [4], or setting a gill net [5]. Remember, your goal is having the ability to obtain the required protein in a long-term sustainable manner with a minimal investment in time and resources.

Water

Water is essential to life, and having a long-term supply of clean water needs to be central to your preparations. While there are a lot of factors that impact how much water you need, I generally use the rule of thumb of 1.5 to 2 gallons per person per day. If you currently have a well that produces sufficient potable water without any filtering, you’re in a better position than a lot of people. But what if your well dries up or gets contaminated? If you’re dependent on an electric well pump, what happens when your power source dies or the pump fails?

Many people plan on relying on a water filter, but consider the following: a set of Berkey water filters [6] is rated for a maximum of 6000 gallons. At two 2 gallons per person per day, that means clean water for a family of four for a maximum of two years. You’ll need to stock up on a lot of filters if you plan on filtering as a long-term solution, since you probably won’t be able to order replacements post-SHTF.

Long-term Access to Water

Here are some thoughts on long-term access to water:

Weapons

I’m probably in the minority in that I don’t see (or hope to see) the post-TEOTWAKI world as being a constant series of running gun battles with groups of Mad Max-like marauders. That doesn’t mean I don’t think you need to be prepared to defend your family, your property, and yourself. I just don’t think you should focus exclusively on elaborate semi-automatic firearms and hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition.

Reliable Long Term

While a tricked-out AR-15 is probably a good idea for defense for the first few years after society disintegrates, you’ll also want something that’s more reliable long term and that can be handed down for generations. Here are some ideas:

Calibers and Storing Up/Reloading

You’ll want to try to keep calibers common across as many of your firearms as possible, in order to simplify your ammunition stocking requirements. Speaking of ammunition, I’d be remiss if I didn’t discuss the whole “stocking up” versus “reloading” over the long-term debate. In general, for the most common calibers (e.g. .223/5.56, .308/7.62, 9mm, et cetera), the savings realized by reloading probably won’t be very significant over just stocking more ammo (especially if you can get it on sale).

You can increase the savings by picking up and reusing your own casings, casting your own bullets, et cetera, but reloading requires an investment in equipment and learning time, and you’ll have to make time post-SHTF to reload your bullets. As I mentioned in the beginning of this section, I’m of the opinion that having a huge ammo stash won’t be necessary, so I’m comfortable just storing up what I believe is a few decades worth of ammo. You’ll have to do a little navel-gazing in order to decide for yourself.

Primitive Weapons

If you’re planning for even longer-term possibilities, consider obtaining (or making) and practicing with more primitive weapons, like spears, bows and arrows, crossbows, slings, bolos, and slingshots. They won’t necessarily replace firearms, but there are many situations where they can be used to hunt or defend, which will extend the useful life of your firearms and ammunition. Store extra strings for bows and crossbows and bands for slingshots, and you can depend on them for decades.

Medical

Medical support is a difficult area in terms of long-term preparations. Obtaining and maintaining a sufficient degree of medical skill for anything beyond the basics requires a not-insignificant, on-going time investment, and, while many natural medicinal sources do exist, it’s one area where you’ll probably be better served by a large stockpile of supplies.

A Multi-Layer Approach

I recommend a multi-layer approach:

Tomorrow, we will look at heating and cooking and other considerations in our evaluation of our long-term preparedness.

See Also:

SurvivalBlog Writing Contest

This has been another entry for Round 74 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest [17]. The nearly $11,000 worth of prizes for this round include:

First Prize:

  1. A $3000 gift certificate towards a Sol-Ark Solar Generator [18] from Veteran owned Portable Solar LLC. The only EMP Hardened Solar Generator System available to the public.
  2. A Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate. This can be used for any one, two, or three day course [19] (a $1,095 value),
  3. A course certificate from onPoint Tactical for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses [20], excluding those restricted for military or government teams. Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795,
  4. DRD Tactical is providing a 5.56 NATO QD Billet upper [21]. These have hammer forged, chrome-lined barrels and a hard case, to go with your own AR lower. It will allow any standard AR-type rifle to have a quick change barrel. This can be assembled in less than one minute without the use of any tools. It also provides a compact carry capability in a hard case or in 3-day pack (an $1,100 value),
  5. Two cases of Mountain House freeze-dried assorted entrees [22] in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources (a $350 value),
  6. A $250 gift certificate good for any product [23] from Sunflower Ammo,
  7. Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value), and
  8. American Gunsmithing Institute (AGI) is providing a $300 certificate good towards any of their DVD training courses [24].

Second Prize:

  1. A Model 175 Series Solar Generator provided by Quantum Harvest LLC (a $439 value),
  2. A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 [25] Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training, which have a combined retail value of $589,
  3. A gift certificate for any two or three-day class from Max Velocity Tactical (a $600 value),
  4. A transferable certificate for a two-day Ultimate Bug Out Course from Florida Firearms Training (a $400 value),
  5. A Trekker IV™ Four-Person Emergency Kit from Emergency Essentials (a $250 value),
  6. A $200 gift certificate good towards any books published by PrepperPress.com,
  7. RepackBox is providing a $300 gift certificate to their site.

Third Prize:

  1. A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of [26] Directive 21 (a $275 value),
  2. A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard, and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206,
  3. Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners [27], donated by Naturally Cozy (a $185 retail value),
  4. Two Super Survival Pack seed collections [28], a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security, LLC,
  5. Mayflower Trading is donating a $200 gift certificate for homesteading appliances, and
  6. Two 1,000-foot spools of full mil-spec U.S.-made 750 paracord [29] (in-stock colors only) from www.TOUGHGRID.com (a $240 value).

Round 74 ends on January 31st, so get busy writing and e-mail [30] us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.

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Comments Disabled To "The Long View- Part 2, by J.M."

#1 Comment By Retired cop On January 19, 2018 @ 12:46 pm

Regarding your assertion that revolvers have fewer moving parts than pistols and are therefore more reliable, apparently you haven’t seen a revolver with the sideplate removed. Revolvers are significantly more complex than pistols, as a general rule. Where revolvers shine in reliability is in their capability to handle inconsistent ammunition. This becomes important in a long term situation if you are reloading and must use homemade powders or powders which have lost their potentcy. The same applies for old or suspect modern ammunition.
Otherwise, nice article. Thanks.

#2 Comment By Old Sarge On January 19, 2018 @ 3:09 pm

If you have a well, get a “well torpedo”and enough rope to reach the water. You first will have to pull out your pump. No electricity required!

#3 Comment By Jim K. On January 19, 2018 @ 3:38 pm

I concur that the revolver is a great survival weapon! My EDC is a model 629. They almost never fail, however when they do it is going to be a catastrophic failure so you’ll need a gunsmith to fix it. Auto-loaders on the other hand fail more often, but its usually something easily fixable by the lay person with a understanding of how their pistol works. That being said I’ve never encountered a failure of any kind with my XDm in the few thousand rounds I’ve put through it. *Knock on wood* Also it should be noted that the reload speed on a revolver vs. automatic is subjective. One person may be able to reload automatics faster and the next might be able to reload revolvers faster.
As to reloading I do it because in a prolonged collapse I would rather have the capability to manufacture ammo for me and mine than be at the mercy of someone else that does have that capability if for some reason we do run low on our ammo stores.
For the medical preparations I have a Doctor in my family and they encouraged everyone who was able to attend at least EMT basic training at the local community college. They are also a big believer in storing lots and lots of medical supplies as you said lol. It would also be advisable to grow some herbs along with your normal garden as well for medicinal purposes.
Thank you for the article. It is well written and informative!
Regards,

Jim

#4 Comment By C. Stewart On January 19, 2018 @ 6:05 pm

As an emergency physician with specific training in disaster medicine I could not agree more with your recommendation that everyone in the family take the standard Red Cross First Aid course. Indeed, I really recommend the EMT-Basic course as the background information, skills, and basic medical knowledge will be invaluable in most of daily life. Even if you have no desire to serve in EMS, it is an appropriate knowledge base for self-reliance if SHTF. I had both of my daughters take this course for this very reason.

I also completely agree with you about ‘Where There Is No Doctor’ and Where There Is No Dentist.’ I prepared an annotated list of references for those who must practice in ‘austere’ conditions. (Austere medicine is how we will practice after SHTF). This list is available at: [31] It does contain books that are ‘professional medical’ in content, but goes far beyond basic EMT training. I keep the entire list of books on a USB as references anytime I am deployed to a disaster.

And, again, having responded to multiple disasters, I’d NOT recommend ‘acclimating’ yourself to local water. Filter, boil, and/or treat ALL of the water that goes in your mouth. (Tested well water would be an exception, of course.) Look at cholera in Haiti for a very easy example of why you should do this. Giardia would be another more local example. There is also an article on Oral Rehydration Therapy on the Moljinar website, which will likely be needful if you try ‘acclimate’ to water with shigella, salmonella, or cholera (organisms that will make Montezuma’s revenge a living thing!)

#5 Comment By J.M. On January 19, 2018 @ 6:53 pm

Re; ‘acclimating’ yourself to local water. I definitely didn’t mean to imply that anyone do this AFTER an emergency event, especially with an untrusted water supply. What I was shooting for was for people that have a reasonably clean natural water supply now should consider weaning themselves off of the use of filters if at all possible (and safe). The goal should be to reduce the number of supplies (e.g. filters) that you rely on. If you are going to end up with an illness as a result of drinking unfiltered water, it would make sense to minimize the impact by starting with small amounts and have it happen while advanced medical support is available.

#6 Comment By BD On January 20, 2018 @ 8:18 pm

That is the most comprehensive list I’ve seen so far, thank you very much!

#7 Comment By Fieldmarshelattilahun On January 20, 2018 @ 4:18 am

J.M. :
Thanks for the more info!

#8 Comment By TJ in GA On January 24, 2018 @ 2:19 pm

Stewart C. I am trying to set up my own first aid/emergency care building at our retreat. Do you have any suggestions that will help me organize and group my supplies for maximum efficiency?
A couple of years ago I took Doc Cindy’s med prep class, I have also been certified in Red Cross first aid and disaster relief training, and I’m a CERT volunteer. I’m just not an organizer, esecially when it comes to medical preps.