As a retired corn farmer, I find it quite interesting that the Fed’s USDA is still keeping to it’s hard-and-fast immutable “projections” of 97.3 million acres of corn being planted this year. Just like building a house, call the Fed’s number the “planned” or projected blueprint idea.
But now let’s look at the “as built” story. Here, where the “rubber meets the road,” or I should say “where the planter tucks in the actual corn seed,’ the “actual” or real situation is quite another story due to very late corn plantings, if at all. The surprise is that the market has not yet reacted much.
Last Monday USDA reported that only 12% of the nation’s corn crop was in as of Sunday night (12 May 2013.) This should have shocked the markets–but didn’t. As of today, US corn planting is up to 28%, but a far cry from the “fast planting” of last year which stood at 85% [on the same date] one year ago.
Western states show significant delayed corn planting because of wet soils.
With long corn crop maturation days here in Ohio’s Corn Belt, common wisdom is that if you don’t have your seed in by May 10th, you may as well forget it (or switch to planting soybean.) Here we are almost the middle of May and very little corn is planted and the media and markets seem to say: “Ho-hum…nothing to see here, move along folks.” This is not good; we are not being told or shown the truth that a nation can rely and act upon.
Maybe this all just doesn’t matter; maybe all the corn will eventually get in, maybe we’ll have excellent weather and no drought or natural disasters, maybe insects and diseases won’t affect the corn, maybe the price at harvest will be just ducky. “Maybe” is the operative word here and that word ain’t even good a notion as “close enough” like when you play horseshoes or toss hand grenades.
My thanks to Marlin Clark, commodity trader at “Market Monitor” on pages A6-A7 in Ohio’s “Farm and Dairy” newspaper, issue of 16 May 2013, for is alert on this same subject..
Thoughtfully submitted, – Woody in Ohio
JWR Replies: Thanks for that early news tip. SurvivalBlog readers should consider themselves forewarned. This would be a good juncture to buy few more super pails of whole corn and cornmeal. Be sure to buy them before prices jump!