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JWR’s Firearms Market Trend Predictions for 2020 to 2025

I was recently asked by a consulting client about my predictions for the U.S. retail gun market for the remainder of 2020 and next few years. In this article I’ll summarize my responses:

Note that thee foregoing are just my own subjective predictions. Your local circumstances may vary. – JWR

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#1 Comment By Maag On March 31, 2020 @ 5:14 pm

The election-related panic buying hadn’t even begun, probably because many Republicans have decided Trump is invincible. If the pandemic stampede turns into an election stampede, we might see ammo shortages for years.

#2 Comment By Tom On March 31, 2020 @ 9:55 pm

I guess one good thing to the craze of gun buyers is that perhaps some of the first time buyers will help increase the number of voting public who realize what the second amendment is all about.

Lets pray they also have or develop a true moral compass to help guide their USE of those tools.

#3 Comment By wally On April 1, 2020 @ 3:32 am

it really could go either way with the first time buyers. i do an don’t like the idea of armed democrats/socialists per se, but if we can convert a few along the way amen to that….

#4 Comment By Vegas On April 1, 2020 @ 2:41 pm

I’ve actually dusted off my cap-and-ball revolver back into active service.

Why? I live in a densely crowded townhome neighborhood, and there is literally no direction in which I can discharge a weapon that would not pierce multiple domiciles. The cap-and-ball revolver has five shots, single action, that are exponentially less likely to travel through walls. Other than perhaps bird shot, any suggestions?

#5 Comment By Outpost75 On April 1, 2020 @ 7:47 pm

Way too optimistic in his viewpoint.

The way Trump is lying and waffling and with the increasing distrust of government in general at best it’s a toss-up whether DJT will get re-elected. I think his chances are less than 50-50.

If/when a Democrat gets into the White House and/or if the Dems get a veto-proof majority in both houses you can expect draconian gun legislation, and resistance in the form of massive civil disobedience and government overreach to maintain control. It won’t be pretty.

I see them immediately shutting off imported guns, ammo and components. Better for American industry, and then they can regulate the heck out of it. Tax it.. Bring semiauto rifles, pistols, shotguns s and high-cap magazines under NFA. Have a 1-year amnesty period to either register, pay transfer tax or enact federal licencing . To avoid the high tax and threat of prosecution for violations turn in your gun for an EBT card, if you quality under income limitations. Maybe get a tax credit if you have a decent income or pension, cap would be based upon a sliding scale. But if you make over $75k per year you’ll be lucky to get 10 cents on the dollar.

The objective will be to eliminate the evil “gun culture.” This has already started by brainwashing our kids in the schools and in social media. They want “Rambo guns and ammo” to be gone in a generation. You won’t be able to pass them on to your heirs, so the government will seize and destroy them like in Australia and UK for the public good. We might be able to keep our “Elmer Fudd guns” antiques and revolvers a few years longer, but black powder and black powder substitutes, smokeless powder and primers will be heavily taxed and regulated to make them expensive, as a safety measure supposedly to limit terrorist access to explosives. It will become very difficult and socially unacceptable to publicly own or shoot guns. Society is being brainwashed in to viewing gun ownership, hunting, shooting, owning guns for protection as being no different than having a meth lab or being a crack dealer, except that in the Socialist Utopia drugs will be decriminalized and fully legal in a generation, though taxed, but gun dealers will be regulated out of business, as will public shooting ranges. Owning and using firearms for personal defense will require mandatory personal liability insurance and government-approved training and certification which will become a cash cow for the NRA, so they will support it and King Wayne can continue to buy Gucci loafers.

If a Democrat president gets in and packs the court with commies you can kiss our Bill of Rights goodbye. In the Socialist Utopia gun owners will be seen as the evil terrorists.

That’s my take.