Hey James,
Hope you and your family are well. I have read many books on the coming economic collapse and Peak Oil [1], your opinion and also your readers comments on SurvivalBlog. For quite a bit of it, I agree. However, I doubt we’ll see a true TEOTWAWKI [2] because of a lack of
oil or even a complete collapse as some are predicting. One thing people are forgetting is the HUGE (1.5 Trillion barrels or so) of oil deposited in oil shale in the Western United States. At $35 per barrel of oil, it becomes profitable to start producing oil and gas from oil shale. So I wouldn’t be too worried about peak oil just yet.
Personally, I believe that we will see inflation to the point where they classify it as hyperinflation (prices going up 100% over the course of 3
years), and I think we will see a major depression starting somewhere around 2010. Up until that time, we’ll just see massive amounts of inflation, maybe another war and our citizens’ actual buying power decrease to a point where it really puts a strain on the economy. You know, people will still use credit cards without the thought of the ability of paying it back or what is
going on around them. I give it four years and we’ll see 10% to 15% unemployment (possibly higher), the massive increase of foreclosures and bankruptcies and the tightening of peoples’ belts.
I do see things getting worse, because oil will go way over $100 per barrel and there is no real movement on the part of our government to nip our energy crisis in the bud. Welcome back to the 1970s and early 1980s, however, it will be much worse, because this time it is not just based on world politics. Sincerely, – K.L. in Michigan