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Influenza Pandemic Update:
Radio Nederland reports: Ukraine paralysed by "superflu"
Receptor Binding Domain Change D225G Confirmed in Ukraine
H1N1 Receptor Binding Jumps in China, Australia Raise Concerns
In rough translation: Forensic Physician Told UNIAN, From What People Are Dying
Ukraine Dead Increase to 315, Still No Sequences. Poland now reporting fatalities, Belarus also reporting severe cases
Record Number of H1N1 Pediatric Deaths in US
Swine Flu: Previous Infection Could Offer Some Immunity
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Influenza Pandemic Update:
CDC Now Says There are Likely 4,000 Swine Flu Deaths in the US. This is 4x what they had been reporting.
Ukraine Dead at 213; Still No Sequences From WHO 1,192,481 Influenza/ARI; 62,462 Hospitalized
WHO Appeals to Ukraine for Help with Hemorrhagic Pneumonia
Senators Debate Requiring Paid Sick Leave for Workers with Flu
11 Die of H1N1 in War-Ravaged Afghanistan
Cheryl sent this article auto-translation link: Belarusian doctors: "Swine flu triggers a deadly form of pneumonia disease"
...and this data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Health.
Cheryl also did some digging and found this: Norway: 300,000 Infected. Doubling of cases has occurred, they are watching for the hemorrhagic pneumonia that occurred in Ukraine
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Wound Irrigation in Austere Environments »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Andre sent this from Radio Nederland: Madagascar! Slovakia closes borders with flu-hit Ukraine
Bobbi-Sue mentioned that respected surgeon and fiction author Robin Cook thinks a mix of avian and swine flu could be the next global plague on the scale of the Black Death. In a piece in Foreign Policy magazine, he details why.
Belarus Has 1/4 Million Swine Flu Cases
Suspect H1N1 Death in Romania on Border With Ukraine
US Pandemic Options Include Crippling Home Modems
WHO Silence On Ukraine Sequences Raise Pandemic Concerns "In the days post shipment, cases in Ukraine have quadrupled to over 1 million and the reported fatalities have grown from 30 to 174. The clinical presentation of 90 of the fatalities was classical H1N1 linked hemorrhagic pneumonia, which led to the "total destruction" of both lungs. These fatal cases were hospitalized 3-7 days after disease onset, highlighting the rapid progression of the infection in a large number of patients, suggesting genetic changes in the H1N1 virus."
Over 2,000 Health Care Workers In Ukraine Ill
1918 RBD Polymorphisms In Ukraine H1N1
Ukraine: Over 1 Million Cases
WHO: Animals Need to Be Closely Monitored for Flu. Swine flu found in Denmark mink.
Spread of Swine Flu in Ireland "Intense"
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Clarification on the Distribution of SurvivalBlog »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Amid shortage, big NYC firms get swine vaccine. Reader Garth S. (who sent us the article link) asks: "So is this how it works? I get six zeros behind my salary and I can get to the front of the line?"
World First As Swine Flu Found in US Cat
Critically Ill Swine Flu Patients Spend Weeks in ICU
Scandal: NHL Team Gets Priority Flu Shots
WHO Targets Hemorrhagic H1N1 Cases in Lviv, Ukraine. So, assuming that his is a new, more lethal strain, I'm led to ask: Will contracting the current mild strain circulating in the US protect someone from contracting the new strain?
National Swine Flu Pandemic Called in Bulgaria. "Spikes in deaths have already been reported in Turkey and Italy, although none have approached the numbers reported in Ukraine, where influenza/[Acute respiratory infection] (ARI) cases are approaching 1 million, and will likely surpass that number in the next report. The explosion of cases in Ukraine raise concerns that the H1N1 virus has subtly changed, with associated increase in cases and deaths."
Majority of Californians to Ignore Late Swine Flu Vaccine
Withheld Ukraine Swine Flu Sequences Raise Pandemic Concerns. "[T]he rapid spread of H1N1 in Ukraine... ...coupled with the high frequency of hemorrhagic pneumonia raise concerns that a small change is leading to a more virulent virus."
Reported Cases in Ukraine Double Again
Canada: No Life Insurance for a Year if You Get Swine Flu!
How to Minimize Your Risk of Getting Swine Flu
Banks' H1N1 Flu Vaccines Stir Outrage. Protests mount that Goldman Sachs, CitiBank, JPMorgan and others have the vaccine amid shortage
H1N1 Swine Flu Deaths Highest in 50 and Older Once Hospitalized. The overall death rate of those hospitalized (the worst cases, often with underlying health issues) is 11%
Polish PM: Poland Not Buying Swine Flu Vaccination Unless it Has Been Properly Tested
WHO Says Swine Flu Virtually in Every Country on Earth
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Retreat Construction, Afghan Style »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Reader Karl B. sent this new item that he spotted on a news wire, dated 29 October: Unidentified virus kills 30 in western Ukraine. Since I was unable to find a link to the English translation of the piece (originally from a Kiev television outlet), I've decided to post it in full:
[Presenter] An unknown deadly virus has taken lives of over 30 people in western Ukraine. The preliminary diagnosis is viral pneumonia. The results of analyses are to be made public early next week. According to the latest statistics, some 12 people died in Ternopil Region, 11 in Lviv Region and six in Ivano-Frankivsk Region. The decease has spread to other regions. Another three people died of viral pneumonia in Chernivtsi, and two in Rivne Region. The Health Ministry has called on people to call at hospitals immediately if they have any symptoms of pneumonia. Prime Minister [Yuliya Tymoshenko] plans to start playing audio clips with this information on the radio.
[Health Minister Vasyl Knyazevych] Today the doctors are ready and they know how to provide emergency treatment [of pneumonia], but the main issue is the timeliness of visiting the doctor. We are already able to detect if this is the so called flu virus, if this is our traditional flu or if it is the California flu, H1N1, the so called swine flu, as we call it. This will be confirmed.
[The UNIAN news agency at 1037 GMT quoted Knyazevych as saying that among people diagnosed with viral pneumonia were those of working age and pregnant women. He said that the best health care experts in Ukraine had been sent to western Ukraine to help tackle the spread of the virus]."
SurvivalBlog reader John in Ohio sent us a link to a Wall Street Journal follow-up: Swine Flu Fears Grip Ukraine
Now They're Calling it Hemorrhagic
Global Uptick In Swine Flu Deaths
China Warns it Faces Severe Challenges in Combating H1N1 Swine Flu
Ukraine in Panic Over Swine Flu
Four Ukraine Doctors Dead of Swine Flu
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Thoughts on Preparedness in a Diverse Community »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Reader D.P.D. mentioned: Signs of a H1N1 mutation? Something is up in Ukraine: "Viral pneumonia..."
Los Angeles County Free H1N1 Vaccination Clinics Overwhelmed
Swine flu prompts hundreds of schools to close
US Emergency Declaration Increases Concern. "...the CDC has reported a low reactor isolate, indicating the virus is evolving away from the vaccine."
'National emergency' for H1N1 no cause for alarm, experts say. Oh, that makes me feel so much better.
Fight Erupts in Line at Nevada Swine Flu Clinic
CDC: 19 Children in US Died of Swine Flu Last Week
WHO Emergency Response Team to Ukraine
US: 10 Million More H1N1 Vaccines Due Next Week
Ukraine Deploys Mobile Military Hospitals in H1N1 Crisis
Claims of Many Flu Dead in Ukraine, Full Hospitals, Panic
Ukraine Schools Close, Travel Restricted After H1N1 Deaths
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Protein Powders as Emergency Survival Foods »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Europe swine flu spreads, 'millions' infected in U.S.
CBS Reveals Swine Flu Cases Seriously Overestimated
Increase in flu is called dramatic "Massachusetts has seen a jump in flu activity this week that has led one Central Massachusetts high school to close and that appears to signify the arrival of the second wave of swine flu."
Health officials scramble to counter H1N1 myths.
WHO: nearly 5,000 swine flu deaths worldwide.
Synopsis of H1N1 Activity between Oct. 11-17 (Week 41)
CDC 2009 H1N1 International Situation Update
Germans Unhappy With Alternative Swine Flu Vaccine for Politicians, Military
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Open Enrollment for Many U.S. Medical Savings Plans »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Obama declares swine flu a national emergency
US Swine Flu Deaths Surpass 1,000
Pandemic flu can infect cells deep in the lungs, says new research
Mandatory Vax for NY Healthcare Workers Cancelled
UK: 25% of Critical Flu Cases are Under 16
UK Swine Flu Cases Almost Double in a Week
Swine Flu Docs Unnerved at Patients Rapid Decline
UK: Half of Swine Flu Deaths Under Age of 45
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Comments from Michael Z. Williamson Re: Storing Food in Commercial Storage Spaces? »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Florida Plan Advises Hospitals to Bar Some Patients in Event of Severe Flu Pandemic
USDA Confirms a US Pig has H1N1 Swine Flu
H1N1 in Swine Raises Concern
FDA Approves Seasonal Flu Vaccine (Fluarix) for Children
Officials See a Shortage in Vaccine for Swine Flu
Why CDC says this year's flu season is "very sobering"
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Gear that is Hidden in Plain Sight »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Reader Sheila A. mentioned n informative piece on flu immunizations, from The Atlantic: Does the Vaccine Matter?
Swine Flu Claims 11 More Children
NY Judge Halts Flu Vaccine Mandate for Health Workers
Children Should Not Be Given Common Pain Killer After Vaccine
Swine Flu Taking Toll on Hospital Health Workers
UK: Swine Flu Death Toll Passes 100, 2 Pregnant Women Die
CDC: Production of Swine Flu Vaccine Lagging
More than Half of Americans to Refuse Swine Flu Vax
UK: Top Insurer Tells Doctors Not to Give Swine Flu
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Abandonment of the Dollar is a Premature Rumor »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Karen H. sent this piece for the I told you so department: Lung Failure in H1N1 Cases Spurs Life Support Demand. I warned you that there aren't enough ventilators!
Also from Karen: Third Swine-Flu Wave Poses Threat to Hospital ICUs
German Army first in line to get cutting-edge swine flu shot.
Four-Year-Old Survives Swine Flu (Barely)
Massachusetts House Approves Bill Okaying Quarantines
Ohio School to Discuss Boy's Swine Flu Death
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Notes on Fuel Transfer Pumps and Fuel Filters »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
US to Stop Counting Flu Cases, Too Many to Count
Swine Flu Study Shows Hardest Hit Are Women
Spring Swine Flu Put Many Already Hospitalized Patients Into ICU
76 Children Have Died in US From Swine Flu
Relenza Warning After Patient Dies Turning Flu Powder Into Liquid
US Study Confirms H1N1 Swine Flu More Serious in Young
Areas Hard Hit By Swine Flu in Spring See Little Now
Japan Tamiflu Resistant Teen Had No Tamiflu Record
Swine Flu's Surge in ICU Cases Reveals Winter's Toll
Swine Flu Spreads Like Wildfire Across US, 19 Kids Die in One Week
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: How to Make Your Own "Black Out" OPSEC Window Panels »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Are surgical masks as effective as N95 respirators to prevent influenza?
US Rolls Out Massive Swine Flu Vaccination Campaign
US Children Now Receiving Swine Flu FluMist
China Reports First Swine Flu Death
MSNBC Asks: How Safe are the Flu Shots?
Sebelius: Americans Must Get Swine Flu Vaccine (BTW, the article does not state that it is mandatory.)
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Firearms Spare Parts Recommendations »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
28 Pregnant Women Dead from Swine Flu
Army's First Swine Flu Death is Soldier in South Carolina
Many Swine Flu Deaths Linked with Second Infection
US Military to Get Mandatory Swine Flu Vaccinations Soon
Mexico Braces for Second Wave of Swine Flu
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Older Technology Radio Receivers (Original Thread Title Was: Crystal Radios) »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
E627K H1N1 Swine Flu Lower Temp Strain Raises Concern
UK: 1,000 Kids Get Swine Flu Test Jab
Study: Getting Seasonal Flu Shot Makes You Twice as Likely to Get H1N1 Swine Flu
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Amateur Radio for the Rest of Us »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Washington State Okays Mercury in Swine Flu Vaccine (Thanks to Justin B. for the link Again, do some research before getting vaccinated.)
Most Parents Won't Get Kids Vaccinated Against Swine Flu
Fever-Free Swine Flu in CNN's Anderson Cooper
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Amateur Radio for the Rest of Us, by Jim in Illinois »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Spike in Pennsylvania Swine Flu Deaths
Widespread Flu Antibody Confounds Clinical Trial
Swine Flu Surge May Cause Heart Attacks
First H1N1 Vaccines Will Be Nasal Spray
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Range Report from Another Distaff Appleseed Shooter »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Over 1,300 New Swine Flu Cases in Mexico in Three Days
PANAMAX 2009 Tests Pandemic Outbreak in Exercise
Patients' Complications After H1N1 Swine Flu Misdiagnosed
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Three Letters Re: Will Junk Silver Be Accepted for Barter, Post-Collapse? »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Swine flu 'could kill millions unless rich nations give £900m' UN report says pandemic may result in anarchy unless western world pays for antiviral drugs and vaccines. Thanks to John L. for the link.
Brazil Registers 899 Swine Flu Deaths
UK: Rise in Swine Flu Cases Signals Second Wave
UK: Deadly Second Wave of Swine Flu "On Its Way"
Another School District Closing Near Knoxville, Tennessee
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Advice for a Post-Thyroidectomy -- Potassium Iodide? »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
From Heather H.: Hand Washing No Defense Against Swine Flu
FDA Approves Vaccines for Swine Flu (But there are lots of doubts about the safety of the vaccine. Do some research before taking the jab!)
H1N1 Brings Early Flu Season to Colleges, Public Schools
Canada anger at 'flu body bags' Canada's health minister orders an inquiry after body bags are sent to aboriginal communities as part of swine flu preparations.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
UK: Critical Care Doubled for Return of Swine Flu
Tens of Millions Could Get Swine Flu in China
Scientists Warn Over Swine Flu Potency
Maine Governor Declares Swine Flu Civil Emergency
Nurse Refuses Mandatory Flu Vaccination
Why Won't Healthcare Workers Take the Swine Flu Vaccination?
Scotland: Mobile Morgues for Swine Flu Dead
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Should I Buy Camouflage Web Gear? »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Study: Most US Businesses Not Ready for Swine Flu
Additional Spread of Tamiflu Resistance in US
Tamiflu-resistant Cluster in Hong Kong
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Thoughts on Shedding Bad Habits, and Developing Good Ones »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
CDC Issues Guidelines for Seasonal and Swine Flu
HHS Pandemic Flu Plan
Roche: Few Cases of Tamiflu-Resistant Swine Flu
China's Swine Flu Victims May Double to 10,000
UK Swine Flu Deaths Hit 26
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Some Travel and Bug Out Gear Recommendations »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
2,000 Sick at Washington State University
Explosion in Student Deaths as Schools Open
Swine Flu Remains Mild as Vaccine Advances
UK: Swine Flu Death Estimates Reduced by Two-Thirds
Flu Guidelines Issued for Child Care Centers
When Birds and Pigs Collide
Mass Vaccination Centers are Part of D.C. Flu Plan
« Economics and Investing: |Main| You're Not (Yet) Prepared, by Ted B. »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
H1N1 Virus Has Biological Advantage Over Seasonal Influenza Viruses
Emory Moves Students With Swine Flu Into One Dorm
University of Kansas Students with Flu Isolated
Fatal Swine Flu Patients' Lungs Look Like Bird Flu Lungs
Italian in Egypt One of Three H1N1-H5N1 (Swine-Bird) Flu Co-Infection Cases
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Advice on Camouflage Covers for LP/OPs »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
UN warns over swine flu in birds; The discovery of swine flu in turkeys in Chile raises concerns about the spread of the virus, a UN agency warns. How many recombinations will we see?
New York Mayor To Announce Plans To Combat H1N1 In Schools
Colombian President Uribe Ill With H1N1 Flu
Hands-Off Plan: Schools Ban Touching to Fight H1N1
Advice on when flu needs TLC or a doctor's care
She's walking the tightrope on flu; Minnesota's top flu fighter balances the worst-case scenario with plans and hopes for avoiding it.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Bug Out Contingency Planning »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
WHO warns of severe form of swine flu. The article begins: "Doctors are reporting a severe form of swine flu that goes straight to the lungs, causing severe illness in otherwise healthy young people and requiring expensive hospital treatment, the World Health Organization said on Friday. Some countries are reporting that as many as 15 percent of patients infected with the new H1N1 pandemic virus need hospital care, further straining already overburdened healthcare systems, WHO said in an update on the pandemic."
Gregor spotted this in an Australian newspaper: “Swine Flu Spreading at ‘unbelievable’ rate: WHO Chief”
Swine Flu's Worst Case Scenario: Paranoia or Preparedness?
One company is diligently preparing for the worst case H1N1 Flu scenario with promising results
Fearing flu, Vermont fair cancels all swine events
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: A Method for Storing Fresh Eggs up to Two Years »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Feds Put Focus on Swine Flu Vaccinations
Ohio School District Reporting 10% of Students Sick with Swine Flu
Health Workers are Reluctant to Get Swine Flu Vaccine
Saudi Arabia Restricts Hajj Pilgrimage in Anti-Flu Fight
Japan Swine Flu Spread has Begun
33,000 Infections, 130 Swine Flu Deaths in Oz "Just Tip of the Iceberg"
« |Main| Letter Re: Advice on Water Barrel Pumps »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
DHS Warns H1N1 "Could cause serious disruption of social and medical capacities in our country ..."
H1N1 Could Kill as Many as 30,000 to 90,000 in U.S., Report Says. [JWR's comment: If you have been debating taking your kids out of public school and homeschooling, then in my opinion the projected deaths for H1N1 should be the deciding factor. But for some numerical perspective, consider these two figures. 1.) The"usual" seasonal influenzas claims around 30,000 lives annually in the US, primarily among the elderly. 2.) It took fifteen years of the Vietnam conflict to kill about 58,000 American, mostly aged 18 to 25.]
"Chicago Dude" sent us links to a two part C-Span video on a conference on H1N1 swine flu held in Washington DC: Part 1, and Part 2.
Hospitals May Face Severe Disruption From Swine Flu. JWR Adds: Just wait until the small supply of available ventilators is overwhelmed. I've been warning about this since 2006!
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: The Usefulness of the AK-47 as a Survival Rifle »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Does virus vaccine increase the risk of cancer?
US Reports 522 Swine Flu Deaths with Nearly 8,000 in Hospitals
No Sides Effects So Far in Swine Flu Vax Trials [ JWR Adds: Do your homework before taking any vaccination. There are risks!]
H1N1 Could Kill as Many as 30,000 to 90,000 in U.S., Whitehouse Report Says (A hat tip to KAF for the link.)
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Eight Letters Re: The Usefulness of the AK-47 as a Survival Rifle »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
WHO predicts 'explosion' of swine flu cases
JHB sent us a link to an updated H1N1 interactive map.
Swine Flu Threat to Business Prompts a Call for Readiness
Government Enlists Employers' Help To Contain Flu
Swine Flu Pandemic Paradox Kills Few, Overwhelms Hospital ICUs
New Swine-Flu Vaccination to Be Ready in US By Mid-October
Swine Flu Shots May Be Too Little, Too Late to Stop Outbreaks
Most UK Companies Already Hit by Swine Flu
Plans Drawn Up for Mass Swine Flu Graves
Ill-Prepared Africa Braces as Swine Flu Hits
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Trading Numismatic $5, $10, and $20 Gold Pieces for Bullion Coins? »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Chile: Swine Flu Has Spread To Turkey Farms
Deadly Dog Flu Spreads
Southern Georgia, US, Schools Swine Flu Outbreak
Infections Disease Risk In Swine Flu Jabs
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Silver Jewelry for Barter? »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Polio Surge In Nigeria After Vaccine Virus Mutates
Parents are Worried About the Swine Flu Vaccine
Costa Rica's President First Head of State to Get Swine Flu
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Comfort and Holiday Foods for Family Food Storage »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Swine flu jab link to killer nerve disease: Leaked letter reveals concern of neurologists over 25 deaths in America
Reader DB sent this: KPC: The Other Potential Pandemic--And We're Completely Ignoring It
U.K. Diagnosing H1N1, Dispensing Drugs Online
National Guard Drills at High School for Possible Pandemic Riots
US Gearing Up for Second Wave of Swine Flu
UK: Healthy Children and Those Over 65 Not Swine Flu Priorities
Chinese Mainland Reports First "Critical" Case of Swine Flu
Peru Detects Swine Flu in Amazon Indian Tribe
Brazil Swine Flu Deaths Soar to Almost 200
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Construction Without Electricity, by Curtis M. »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
China Mainland Swine Flu Cases Near 2,350
Spain Records 9th Death From Swine Flu
Tamiflu-Resistant Pandemic Swine Flu Spreads
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Storage Underground or in Humid Climates »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Argentina Confirms 337 Swine Flu Deaths
15-year-old Brazilian Girl Taking Tamiflu Dies on Flight from US
WHO Reports Swine Flu Now Resistant to Anti-Viral Drug Relenza
WHO: Swine Flu Spreads to Most Remote Parts of the World [JWR Adds: Madagascar?]
WHO: Younger People 12-17 at Greater Risk to Catch Swine Flu
New Influenza Drug Successful in Trials
Swine Flu's Worst Case Scenario: Paranoia or Preparedness?
Eight US Cities Line Up for Swine Flu Vaccine Test
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Three Letters Re: Acquiring Pre-1965 Silver Coinage »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Swine Flu Outbreak Suspected in Israeli Military Prison
Palestinians Confirms First Swine Flu Death
50-yr-old Jerusalem Man 5th Israeli Swine Flu Death
Iran Bans Pilgrimage to Mecca as Swine Flu Spreads
Mexico Swine Flu Cases Jump, LatAm Deaths Soar
19 New Swine Flu Cases in India, Total 616
Swine Flu Death Triggers Panic in Western India
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Acquiring Pre-1965 Silver Coinage »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Two Year Old Dies after Swine Flu Misdiagnosis
Obama Team Mulls New Quarantine Regulations
How Safe is the Swine Flu Vaccine?
Flu Vaccination Poses Biggest Challenge to U.K. Health System (Thanks to Karen H. for the link.)
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Advice on Storing Precious Metals--Are Safe Deposit Boxes Safe? »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
UK Soldier First Armed Forces Swine Flu Death
Russia Warns Not to Travel to Flu-Hit UK
Greece Plans to Vaccinate Everyone, No Exceptions
Entire South Korean Military to Be Vaccinated Against Swine Flu
Flu Scare a Boon to Body-bag Sales
Swine Flu Curbed in Brazil as Religious Habits Change, Schools Delay
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Saving Clad Dimes and Quarters? »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Reader Pete A. sent us a link to an updated interactive map: Tracking the global spread of swine flu
First Wave of Swine Flu Peaks in UK
Mexico registers big jump in swine flu cases
Swine Flu Strategy Under Revision "U.S. authorities will release within days other 'community-mitigation"'measures, intended to help keep businesses operating, help hospitals avoid being overwhelmed and guide local authorities in deciding whether to cancel public events, officials said."
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Here Comes Winter! »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
US Experts Set Rules for Swine Flu Vaccines
Swine Flu Hits Central Virginia
Children Treated with Tamiflu Suffer Nightmares, Nausea
US Vaccine Plan May Endanger Supply
Are we prepared for flu outbreak?
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Sterling Silver Flatware for Barter? »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Wal-Mart Weighs Role in US Swine Flu Vaccination Plans
Report: US Unprepared for Second Wave of Swine Flu
Capitol Hill Swine Flu Scare Continues
Military Planning for Possible Swine Flu Outbreaks
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Distance Traveling by Waterways »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Pregnant May Get More Seriously Ill with Swine Flu
Pandemic H1N1 in Swine in Quebec Lack Human Link
The H1N1 cytokine storm debate goes on.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Here Comes Winter!, by Peter H. »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Study: Antiviral Drugs May Be Wasted on the Elderly
Military Poised to "Help" FEMA Battle Swine Flu
Soft Toys Could Spread Swine Flu At School
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: An Outward Bound Prepper's Perspective »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
City Plans to Use Catacombs for Swine Flu Victims
Two Billion May Get Swine Flu Worldwide
Swine Flu's Rapid Spread Has Experts on Edge
US Reports Swine Flu Toll Over 300
Swine Flu Fears Prompt Run on UK Pharmacies
Spain Reports its 5th Swine Flu Death
Brazil Confirms 4 More Swine Flu Deaths
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Distance Traveling by Waterways »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
AP Interview: Flu chief: Pandemic in early stages
Swine Flu: Up to 160 Britons Held in Quarantine Overseas as Children Found to be Super Spreaders of the Disease
US Schedules Trials of New Swine Flu Vaccine
Mutation ahead? WHO says pandemic gaining speed, sees winter risks
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Some Crucial Readiness: Preparing for Joy »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Swine Flu Rages On at US Coast Guard Academy
US Public Health Agencies to Set Up Mass Swine Flu Vaccinations
US Warns Seasonal Flu Vaccine Will Not Protect Against Swine Flu
Reader H.H. sent these two flu news items:
Swine flu cases double as 100,000 people contract disease in just one week
U.S. has bought 195 million doses of H1N1 vaccine
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: A Multiple Family Retreat -- Lessons Learned The Hard Way »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Global Swine Flu Deaths Top 700 "Margaret Chan, WHO director-general, has warned that swine flu will become the biggest flu pandemic ever seen."
Safety of Swine Flu Vaccine to Face Tough Scrutiny
Swine Flu Brits to be Quarantined
Little Girl 8th Swine Flu Victim in Columbia
CBS 60 Minutes: 1976 Swine Flu: 300 Deaths From Vax, One Death From Flu
Airlines To Ban Suspected Swine Flu Victims. Gee, that's a timely move!
First Vaccine for Foiling Swine to be Tested -The first human trials of a swine- flu vaccine are set to begin in Australia as deaths and infections from the H1N1 virus mount worldwide, intensifying demand for a protective shot.
WHO: Schools Can Opt to Close; Death Toll at 700
Doctors Warn of Swine Flu Vaccine for Vulnerable Patients
Pregnant Women Should Stay Home this Fall
UK: Shops Selling Out of Thermometers Because of Swine Flu
Questions Out There as World Readies for Swine Flu Vaccination
A Whole Industry is Waiting for a Pandemic
Flu Vaccine Scramble Could Get Ugly
« Economics and Investing: |Main| A Multiple Family Retreat -- Lessons Learned The Hard Way »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Legal Immunity Set For Swine Flu Vaccine Makers
Quarantine at San Diego Detention Center Due to Swine Flu
Human Trial of Swine Flu Vaccine Soon
No Time For Wishful Thinking on Swine Flu
Swine Flu a Real Danger to Children
Britain's swine flu advice confuses public
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Propane Tank Refilling Options »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Joan M. sent this: WHO says flu pandemic spreading too fast to count. "...the H1N1 flu pandemic has been the fastest-moving pandemic ever and that it is now pointless to ask countries to count every case."
Britain prepares for 65,000 deaths from swine flu
Swine Flu Threatens Muslim Hajj Season
Swine Flu to force 1 in 8 to take time off work sick
Swine flu sweeping world at 'unprecedented speed': WHO "In past pandemics, influenza viruses have needed more than six months to spread as widely as the new H1N1 virus has spread in less than six weeks."
Swine Flu: Why You Should Still Be Worried
Experts: Swine Flu Is Waning, Will Return In The Fall
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: GPS for Day-to-Day Use and Survival »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
LJ in England sent us this: Swine flu deaths in Britain soar to 29 as 12 die in four days
Andrew in England sent this from Yahoo UK: Pandemic threat 'worse than terror'
From Cheryl: Great Pandemic Flu of 2009 is Coming and No One Can Stop It! Cheryl's comment: "This is a 2006 novel, Another Place to Die
by Sam North, called a blueprint for survival tips for the coming pandemic. Worth checking out. It might deserve a place next to Patriots
."
SR recommended this: Fight for swine flu vaccine could get ugly
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Recommendations on Discreet Self Defense Weapons and Training »
Three Letters Re: N95 Masks for Influenza Protection
Dear Jim and Family,
I recently read your book "Patriots". It was a great read and really scared me too. it brought to light all of fears I have in the back of my mind on how fragile society is and our economy. It is spurring me into action now although it will have to wait as I am deploying to Afghanistan in the next couple of months.
I just read your section on the Swine Flu and the question of N95 masks
and wearing them. As an 11-year veteran career firefighter and sergeant in the Army National Guard, I felt I needed to inform your readers of one glaring life and death point about those masks that is being missed: You need to be fit tested for any mask, the word mask is a misnomer, they are respirators, if they don't fit right, they won't work. When it comes to diseases don't accept anything less than a 100% fit. Not all masks work for all people, I'm sure you and your wife aren't the same size, for example. Also, if you go on the International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF) web site there is Flu Pandemic information. The IAFF also recommends P100 masks, not N95 masks. This is because the P100s catch pretty much 100% of the [2 micron or larger ] particulates, so they are the best bang for your buck. Also a P100 is a long duration use filter, by that I mean, as the filter gets more and more saturated it will get harder and harder to breathe. The mask could be used for a day or a couple of days if need be. P100 masks are made by Moldex [, 3M, and several other makers] and sell for about $40.00 for a five-pack.
I live in Stamford Connecticut right outside New York City (NYC) and work for a large Fire Department. I fit test all 300 guys every year and about 20 size changes occur each year due to weight loss or gain. Hence another reason to be fit tested. I hope that this sheds some light on the issue of a proper-fitting mask.
Be Well, Stay Safe, and with God most of all, - SGT Joe L.
James,
An N95 or N100 mask is actually only good for a few hours of use. Once they become saturated with water from your breath, they loose their effectiveness as well as become a health hazard that makes it easy to literally asphyxiate you. The wet keeps air from going through that part of the mask and you end up breathing the air that makes it past the seal between your face and your mask. Also those of you (like me) with facial hair, out comes the razor. If you plan on spending a long time out in public during what ever the epidemic of the day is, you should carry several. This is good advice to those that have bought a single box of them and consider themselves "prepared". The best bet during a pandemic is just to stay at your retreat, away from others.. N100 masks are quite expensive even by the box and are the best choice. N95s will do if you don't have any N100s. - Frank B on the Border
Jim;
Referencing the letter: Recent Experience with an N95 Protective Mask: This may be a case of "pilot error". The standard N95 mask has a bad reputation, as a retailer of N95 masks there are several drawbacks to these masks, they are:
* Fit
* Filter
* And Fouling
First let's look at fit, because they are designed as a one-size-fits-all consumer product they obviously don't fit every face, and they tent to gap around the edges, especially if making facial movement like talking.
Second, the filter material they are using is deemed "to stop "95% of all particulate matter larger than 2 microns". There are several articles that show the manufacturers use every conceivable way to make their product match those standards and few of them are on actual human test subjects. [(The tests are done with mechanical test fixtures with tight edge seals.)]
Third and most important as your letter writer pointed out is "Fouling". With out an exhalation port the filter material becomes clogged with the water vapor you breathe out. This then forces you to either force your air in and out through an increasingly "full" mask or more likely, breathe around the gaps in the mask, making it completely ineffective.
Then you may be asking "Why buy them if they don't work"? Well the truth of the matter is that they do work, if you use them correctly and for the right reasons. The inexpensive N95 masks come in boxes of 20. That is so that you change them often. With heavy use, i.e. heavy breathing, they should be changed at least once an hour. The greatest utility for these masks is to help you to not touch your nose and mouth with your hands!
Although the Flu virus can be airborne, you are far more likely to get it by touching a contaminated surface like a door knob, stair rail, or a grocery cart handle [and then unconsciously touching your face]. So for that purpose they do a great job.
There are more expensive disposable masks on the market, (Those made by Triosyn are the best in my opinion, although very expensive and hard to find.)
Don't count out the great standby, the N95, I stand by them, but only if they are used correctly! - Kory
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Influenza Pandemic Update:
Swine Flu Claims First "Healthy" Victim in UK
WHO: No Licensed Flu Vaccine Until End of Year
Swine Flu Hits Downing Street, Almost Makes it to G-8
UK: Swine Flu Vax to be Given to Entire Population
New flu resembles feared 1918 virus
« Letter Re: Recent Experience with an N95 Protective Mask |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
H1N1 Influenza: A Cytokine Storm Conclusion, But Still More Questions Than Answers
The good news on H1N1 (commonly called Swine Flu) is that in current strains the death rate appears to be as low as 1 in 2,000 infections, at least in First World countries with modern hospital facilities. The bad news is that at least 60% of world's population is expect to contract the bug, and that further mutations are probable.
The Mutation Question
Mutations to less virulent strains are the historic norm for viruses but there is the risk of one that is very deadly. (To explain: in the grand scheme of things, a mutation with high lethality is is not good for a virus. Some, like Marburg and Ebola, have had strains that were so deadly that the hosts didn't live long enough to pass it along to a large number of new carriers. The most successful viruses are the ones that propagate well, but do not kill too many of their hosts.) We can surmise that the absolute "worst case" for H1N1 is that a much more lethal strain emerges, to be followed by a global infection, and a large-scale die-off. But again, that is the less likely outcome.
The Cytokine Storm Question
Up until recently, I agreed with SurvivalBlog reader "L. Jean" in England who in an e-mail last week noted that we were "still waiting to find out if it's a cytokine storm that kills or not." This is a determining factor whether young, healthy folks should try to boost their immune response, or whether that might make matters worse. Based on the latest literature, I believe that it is now safe to say that with H1N1 a cytokine over-reaction is indeed a substantial risk, and could be a bigger killer than the virus itself. So my updated advice is to continue to store immunity boosters, but not use them to treat H1N1 unless you are Imuno-suppressed. Otherwise healthy patients in ages between 18 and 50 should refrain from doing so. I have updated my article on influenza pandemics, accordingly.
The Immunization Question
There is a vaccine for H1N1 in development, but it has been put on a radically fast track for development and trials. This has raised concerns about contamination and efficacy. Since the strain chosen for the immunization is both a "snapshot" and a "best guess" about what strain will be circulating next winter in the northern hemisphere, and there will only be limited animal testing to rule out pathogenicity. So there are some critics that argue that the vaccine might pose more of risk than the flu itself. It is also noteworthy that the vaccination program will require multiple injections for each patient. In my opinion, it is not yet clear whether the risks will outweigh the benefits. For some of my readers this won't be a matter of choice. Both Canada and the UK have announced their intent to implement universal inoculation programs.
The Madagascar Question
In the well-known computer game Pandemic II, the president of the island nation of Madagascar is quick to isolate the country to prevent the advent of a pandemic. This has become a standing joke among gamers, and the term "Madagascar" has migrated into the epidemiology community. "Going Madagascar" is essentially slamming the doors shut, in the hopes of avoiding infection. (BTW, I know of at least two survival retreat groups that use "Madagascar" as their activation codeword, a-la the novel Alas, Babylon
.) As I noted previously, the "worst case" for any virus is that a very lethal strain emerges, and rapidly spreads globally, as depicted in the novel (and television series) Survivors
by
Terry Nation. The spread of H1N1 via modern jet air travel illustrated just how quickly this could happen. H1N1 has already spread throughout the United States. So I stand by my oft-quoted advice: In such an event you need to be ready and able to isolate your family for an extended period of time. Essentially, you would declare your homestead a mini-Madagascar and "button up" to wait for the virus to burn itself out. (BTW, I briefly describe the logistics of this in my article "Protecting Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic.") It is obviously too late and inappropriate to take extreme measures to isolate yourself from the current strain of H1N1, but we must remain vigilant for any new viral threats. The ability to "go Madagascar" is just one more reason to a have a deep larder!
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Letter Re: Recent Experience with an N95 Protective Mask
Dear Mr. Rawles-
I am writing to tell other Survival Blog readers about a recent experience I had with an N95 mask (with no exhalation port.) My husband and I just bought a 30 year old single wide trailer with 30 years worth of dust, mold, and cat hair. After day of being in the trailer I could feel my allergies start to grow worse by the minute. To clean up the dust, cat hair, and other allergens we went to the local hardware store and rented a Rug Doctor to shampoo the carpets. While shampooing the carpets (which was a bit labor intensive) I wore an N95 mask and let me tell ya' it was an experience. After 30 minutes I felt like I was breathing in thick jungle air. After one hour I felt like I was going to pass out. After two hours I began to feel claustrophobic. If there are readers out there who think they are going to throw on an N95 mask when the swine flu hits their area and run from room to room while caring for sick and dying relatives/friends they better think again. My suggestion is to put on an N95 mask this afternoon, mow the lawn, rake some leaves, take the dog for a brisk walk and see how you feel afterwards. Having survival gear is great but if you have no real world experience with it then it's useless. Know your personal limitations and the limitations of your gear. God bless!
More prepped than ever for the swine flu, - Heather
JWR Replies: In my experience, it takes time to acclimate to wearing a respirator mask. There is no substitute for hours in a mask. Particularly for a full-face military mask, and even more so for a full MOPP suit, limited field of vision, dehydration, claustrophobia and sensory deprivation are well-known effects, but heat build-up up is also an issue, particularly in summer weather. In full-face masks, being deprived of prescription lenses is also an issue, unless you have a prescription lens inserts. (BTW, these hard-to-find inserts are available from JRH Enterprises.) Also be particularly wary of dehydration. Even with masks that include a drinking tube, most wearers have a tendency to drink less than usual.
The bottom line: Practice wearing a mask regularly, in a variety of activities.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Water Storage and Filtration Preparedness Pays Off »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Swine flu shots at school: Bracing for fall return (Thanks for John in Ohio for the link)
A Sign of Things To Come? Argentine Banks Close to Help Stop Spread of the Swine Flu
School-Age Children to Get Vaccinations First
Swine Flu Deaths in UK Double as Country Now Has Third Highest Cases
Britain's first 'healthy' swine flu victim dies - the 15th fatality here in total
Obese Exposed as Swine Flu Collides with Fat Epidemic "An unexpected characteristic has emerged among many swine flu victims who become severely ill: They are fat. ... People infected with the bug who have a body mass index greater than 40, deemed morbidly obese, suffer respiratory complications that are harder to treat and can be fatal." JWR Adds: They are also prove difficult to transport to hospitals, and even just to draw blood samples.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Net Producer-Net Consumer Equations for Self-Sufficiency: Getting Out of the Pit »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Argentine Businesses Hit By Swine Flu
Swine Flu Vaccine Likely to Be Ready in Mid-October
Swine Flu on Main US Afghan Base
Canada: Tamiflu Resistance In Saskatchewan
Jonesy sent us these last two flu items:
Tamiflu Resistance in San Francisco "The case suggests swine flu - a form of influenza Type A, subtype H1N1 - is capable of not only developing drug resistance but also spreading between humans in that resistant form, said Dr. Arthur Reingold, professor at UC Berkeley School of Public Health."
"[The] patients in Japan and in Denmark were taking Tamiflu prophylactically [as a preventive measure], said Dr Keiji Fukuda, assistant director-general of the WHO... But the San Francisco teenager was not, which gives her case added significance, Reingold said, because it suggests she caught the resistant variant from somebody else."
And directly from WHO: Tamiflu Resistance in Hong Kong, Japan, and Denmark
"These viruses were found in three patients who did not have severe disease and all have recovered. Investigations have not found the resistant virus in the close contacts of these three people. The viruses, while resistant to oseltamivir, remain sensitive to zanamivir."
"All other viruses have been shown sensitive to both oseltamivir and zanamivir."
"Therefore, based on current information, these instances of drug resistance appear to represent sporadic cases of resistance. At this time, there is no evidence to indicate the development of widespread antiviral resistance among pandemic H1N1 viruses."
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Influenza Pandemic Update:
UK: Three More Die as Swine Flu Cases Pass 7,500
Canada: Swine Flu in Saskatchewan Raises Pandemic Concerns
Businesses Should Prepare Now For Fall Flu
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: How Do I Transfer Propane Between Tanks? »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Four Britons Die From Swine Flu; Tips to Help You Fight the Flu "Optimize your vitamin D levels. As I've previously reported, optimizing your vitamin D levels is one of the absolute best strategies for avoiding infections of all kinds, and vitamin D deficiency is likely the true culprit behind the seasonality of the flu -- not the flu virus itself."
Argentines question government as flu spreads
Swine Flu Worries Spark Cambridge Jail Riots
Northern Hemisphere Bracing for Fall Flu Carnage
Explosion of Swine Flu Deaths in Argentina
Homeless People Die After Trial Bird Vaccination In Poland
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Prefabricated Garden Sheds as Instant Shelters and Storage Spaces for Retreats »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Swine Flu Reaches Into the Lungs and Gut
100,000 UK Swine Flu Cases a Day by August
Uganda Confirms First Case of Swine Flu
Tamiflu-Resistant Swine Flu Patient in Hong Kong
Teen 4th in UK to Die from Swine Flu "Had serious underlying health problems." [One wonders if this often-used phrase is true or just panic-control?]
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Four Letters Re: Brumby Compressed Air-Powered Well Pumps »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Reader L. Jean sent this: UK Government prediction: 40 deaths per day from swine flu. L. Jean's comment: "[I really have no idea where the figures come from as sources aren't quoted in the article, and it doesn't seem to be causing any panic, in fact most people just don't believe it, and are saying 'it's just fl'" and are refusing to take any precautions - which is bad news for the rest of us. I'm still waiting to find out if it's a cytokine storm that kills or not - perhaps not if all deaths so far have been to people with 'underlying health problems'. Strange how every government uses the exact same phrase."
Karen H. flagged these three articles for us:
Britain revamps swine flu strategy to handle 100,000 new cases a day by end of August.
WHO working on formulas to model spread of swine flu as actual case outpace reported numbers. "The meeting comes as it becomes clearer that actual case numbers may be far higher than the agency's tally of officially diagnosed infections."
World health officials tackle swine flue pandemic, spreading in Southern Hemisphere, Europe. "As we see today, with well over 100 countries reporting cases, once a fully fit pandemic virus emerges, its further international spread is unstoppable," Chan said during opening remarks.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: California's Absurd Weapons Control Laws »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Mycroft sent us this: Pandemic is here: Time to panic?
Now, H1N1 is in Africa
New Flu Strain Has Pet Owners Worried
Former Marine Claims Illness From Mystery Vaccine "Target 5 [a television news team] has discovered that an alarming number of U.S. troops are having severe reactions to some of the vaccines they receive in preparation for going overseas. 'This is the worst cover-up in the history of the military," said an unidentified military health officer who fears for his job. A shot from a syringe is leaving some U.S. servicemen and women on the brink of death.'"
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Brumby Compressed Air-Powered Well Pumps »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Map: US swine flu by state (Thanks to JP for that link)
A/H1N1 Swine Flu Tamiflu Resistance Spreading
British Medical Association Warns Parents Against "Swine Flu Parties"
UK: Girl, 9, Dies in Big Surge of Swine Flu Cases
Swine Flu Outbreak Worsens in Argentina
New England Journal of Medicine: Spread of a Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus Via Global Airline Transport
« Letter Re: Medical Corps Offering a Field Dentistry Class in August |Main| Reader Survey: What Are Your Favorite Preparedness and Self-Sufficiency Books? »
Letter Re: Avoiding Influenza When Traveling Overseas
James,
My work forces me to travel frequently – 80 to 90% of the time. And it’s not to fun places like Miami or Rio but rather third world locales (just coming back from a swing through the ‘stans – Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan -- where I have a large telecommunications project). As such I get exposed to every imaginable sort of illness. I finally found a doctor I could work with when he started to ask where I had been lately rather than what the symptoms were.
As such I have a larger than normal medical kit I take with me on the road. (I also have a 1 quart water bottle sized survival kit I take with me, but more on that in another letter). So I have traveled for years and over the time the kit has grown based on the needs I could not meet in the locales I was in. It really took off when I spent one early December in Beijing and for three weeks the entire stock of western medicines in Beijing was sold out – no decongestants, no ibuprofen, and no sleep as a very bad cold kept me up.
Over the years I have found certain habits to be essential to keeping healthy overseas. First and foremost is a regular dosage of Vitamin C. As soon as I think I am coming down with something I start on a regime of Golden Seal mixed with Echinacea. Finally, I make sure that I have various OTC cold medicines with me at all times – such as Mucinex and 12-hour Sudafed. I also carry Ciprofloxacin, various sulfa drugs, and more recently Tamiflu, as well.
On top of this I am a hygiene nut – washing hands frequently, making quite sure that the water for tea is boiling before I get it, carrying hand wipes with me (Okay, since my youngest is finally out of diapers I am using up the last of the small diaper wipe packets), and the like.
Now while frequent close contact is the norm in many cultures and cannot be avoided without causing undue friction--I still can’t bring myself to do the nose rub with the Arabs--and although I do teach impromptu martial arts classes to all comers in hotel gyms, I do try to limit it.
But all my precautions were to no avail with the Swine Flu. I am just getting over it and have passed it on to my 17-year old son. I assume that the rest of the family will follow in short order (five kids means lots of germ breeding goes on). And if you were in the Frankfurt airport on Saturday – I probably gave it to you as well.
As such I would strongly recommend that folks, while preparing with masks and gloves and the like, concentrate on preparing for getting swine flu. I did everything “right” from a prevention stand point without turning myself into a hermit. And yet here we are with it spreading in my family.
What I have found in my personal case is that the three key medicines to have on hand were Mucinex
[expectorant], 12-hour Sudafed
[decongestant], and Albuterol Sulfate (found in most of the asthma inhalers and commonly used in nebulizer treatments for breathing disorders). Fortunately, with my travels I have a prescription for, and carry, one of the asthma inhalers for those times that I have come down with various forms of pneumonia while on the road. - Hugh D.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Last Minute G.O.O.D. Versus Well-Considered Early Relocation »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
CDC Eyes 600 Million Doses of Swine Flu Shots "Health officials said that a swine flu vaccination campaign could be only a few months away, and that as many as 60 million doses could be ready by September." [JWR Adds: With the current rapid rate of mutation, one can only wonder about the efficacy of this "rush job" vaccine.]
Oregon's Second Swine Flu Death "The child was younger than 5 year old [and] had 'no known underlying medical conditions and a two-day history of fever,' and was not hospitalized, officials said."
Drug-Resistant Swine Flu Seen in Danish Patient
The BBC reports: H1N1 shows first resistance to Tamiflu (Thanks to Andrew H. for the link.)
« Influenza Pandemic Update: |Main| Five Letters Re: The Survivalist's Guide to Martial Arts »
Letter Re: Transcript From a Colorado Flu Pandemic Meeting
Sir,
The June 25, 2009 InfraGard meeting was on the pending pandemic. The speakers were Robin K. Koons, Ph.D., epidemiologist for the Colorado Emergency Preparedness and the Director of FEMA for the State of Colorado. This InfraGard meeting was non-restricted, so these notes may be shared:
[begin transcript]
It is anticipated that 30% of the working population, 42 million people, will become ill. 70% of the working population, 150 million people, will not get ill, and will have to run the country. In 1918 out of the 30% that became ill, 2% died.
Infrastructure may not meet human needs. Supply chain resources (warehousing, trucking, grocery store stocking, fuel deliveries) could break down because of current just-in-time inventories. Grocery and convenience stores may not have product for sale. Police, fire and rescue services might be restricted because of manpower shortages. Hospitals may run out of patient room.
How do you know if you have the H1N1? You wake up with a fever of 102-103 degrees and you do not have the energy to lift yourself up so you can get out of bed. You are horizontally stuck.
Preparedness in general:
* Social distance is six feet. Inside six feet you can receive a droplet from a sick person. Keep your distance!
* Avoid people with coughs.
* Wash hands frequently.
* Have available hand sanitizers, masks, disposable rubber gloves.
* Don’t stick your hands in your eyes, nose or mouth.
* Masks help you not put your hands on your face. Glasses keep your fingers away from your eyes.
* Stay away from humans.
* Everything you touch can kill you (grocery store items, filling station fueling nozzle, building door handles, restroom faucets and doors, customer service pens, credit card machine pens, grocery carts, restaurant menus, arm chairs in the doctor’s office, magazines in customer waiting rooms).
* Establish a family care plan. See www.ready.gov for additional details.
* If you live in a city, arrange for window shade alerts. A specific window shade always pulled down at night, always put up upon arising in the morning. Watch each other’s windows to make sure your neighbors are OK!
* If you live on a ranch, coordinate with multiple neighbors for backup support for feeding. Set up a telephone call system to check on neighbors. Consider GMRS, multiple mile radios (change the default code), for communication in case you can’t get a telephone dial tone. As in any emergency, too many people checking up on each other can overload the phone system.
At work:
* Hold meetings by teleconference instead of face to face.
* Spread workers out. Keep distance between them.
* Quarantine critical workers to keep them away from people.
* Have paper towels available to be used for opening restroom doors. Have a waste basket outside the restroom door so the towel can be thrown away after exiting.
* Have hand sanitizers available.
* Cross-train employees to make sure each task in the business can be done by at least three people.
* Provide for a backup authority for making decisions in case all decision makers are out sick.
* If the influenza comes back in January, decide when you reach the point where you shut down for “X” number of days.
* Companies can expect 25% absenteeism for 4-8 weeks.
* Workers may need time off to take care of themselves or their family. They may be gone for five days more than once.
The influenza could come in waves of 2-3 months and could mutate so you get it a second time.
People who have been exposed to H1N1 are contagious before they are sick. If you have been exposed to H1N1, you may be contagious even though you are not yet sick. If you have been exposed, keep your six foot social distance and watch what and how you touch objects.
Prepare for 30 days of water, fuel, groceries, vitamins, medications. Prepare to survive without help from the outside.
The Pandemic Rule: No one is coming to help.
[end of meeting notes transcript] - John S.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Transcript From a Colorado Flu Pandemic Meeting »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Swine Flu Multi-Shot Vaccine May Overwhelm States "Two injections will be required three weeks apart for swine flu, also known as H1N1, and a third will be needed for seasonal flu, health officials said at a meeting today at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in Atlanta. Children younger than 9 years old will need four shots, the CDC said. ... People older than age 50 are getting swine flu at far lower rates than younger people, evidence they may have some immunity from prior exposures to a similar virus, and will only need one shot, the CDC said. ... The agency estimates that at least 50 million vaccine doses will be available in the U.S. by Oct. 15, and enough vaccine to immunize everyone in the country will be available later in the season. ... William Schaffner, an influenza expert at Vanderbilt University School of Medicine in Nashville, Tennessee, said in an interview at the flu conference, “one shot probably gives you very little immunity, 10 to 20 percent at most.”
98% of US Flu Cases are Swine Flu
How to Legally Say "No" to Vaccinations
Two more swine flu deaths in Victoria
HHS Extends Liability Shield to Antivirals Used for Swine Flu
Winter begins in the southern hemisphere: Swine Flu Emergency Declared in Buenos Aires
Soaring Death Rate in Argentina From Swine Flu
Four Fresh Cases of Swine Flu Found in India; Total 93
Thailand Confirms First Swine Flu Fatalities
UK: Glastonbury Festival Hit By Swine Flu
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Last Minute G.O.O.D. Versus Well-Considered Early Relocation »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
New H1N1 flu not going away: U.S. health agency (Thanks to KAF for the link.)
Mike McD sent this: Western Australia woman fifth to die of swine flu
A news item sent by Karen H.: Britain suffers 2nd H1N1 flu death
Thanks to Richard S. for sending this: Canada to Vaccinate Entire Population
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Last Minute G.O.O.D. Versus Well-Considered Early Relocation »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
US Swine Flu Cases May Have Hit One Million
Cambodia Reports First Case of New Flu
New Swine Flu Cases In Borneo
Hawaii: Huge Spike In Swine Flu Cases
Pacific Isles Now Report First Flu Cases
Flu Hits More Countries in Africa
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Dealing With Local Building Inspectors »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
NYC: Fear of Swine Flu Mutating As City's Death Toll Rises to 32
H1N1 / 6,000 Deaths / The Pandemic is Here
Officials confirm North Carolina's first swine flu death (Thanks to M.W. for the link.)
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Cost Comparison: Factory Loads and Reloaded Ammunition »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Two More NYC Swine Flu Deaths
Germany Warns of Swine Flu Mutation
Pandemic May Be as Severe as 1968 Hong Kong Flu
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: A Retreat Property Shopping Trip -- Three States in Six Days »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Next Question in Swine Flu: Who Gets Vaccinated?
Swine Flu Epidemic Escalating in Middle East
Fatal Swine Flu Cluster In Buffalo, NY "The above comments describe two students of magnet schools in Buffalo, NY that are a mile apart. Both students were on life support yesterday, and the middle school student (15) died after life support was withdrawn. The elementary school student (9F) remains on life support. The clustering of two critically ill students raises concerns about the emergence of a more lethal strain of Pandemic H1N1. ... The 2009 Pandemic is tracking with the 1918 Pandemic, which produce mild disease in the spring, and was more lethal in the fall when previously healthy young adults."
Swine Flu Could Infect Up to One-Half the Population
Southern Hemisphere Bracing for Swine Flu Winter
More Fuzzed Up Numbers Being Reported by CDC
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Five Letters Re: Escape From (Fill in Your City Here), 2009 »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
E627K Acquisition In Swine H1N1 Raises Pandemic Concerns "The acquisition of E627K creates concern that the virus will evolve into a more lethal agent that will be associated with an increased case fatality rate in previously healthy young adults, as was seen in the 1918 Pandemic."
The first death from swine flu in Australia
Old People May Be Immune to Swine Flu
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Pros and Cons of Propane Storage »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Chem-Bio Daily (hosted by Anser.org) reports: “The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and other experts have rejected a report that a new strain of the novel H1N1 influenza virus has been identified in a Brazilian patient.” (Thanks to NH for the tip.)
Clouded, Suspicious Baxter to Make Swine Flu Vaccine
Virus Mix-Up By Lab Could Have Resulted in Pandemic
Swine Flu Cases Spring Up in Middle East
Bird Flu Virus Can Survive For Two Years in Birds' Carcasses [JWR Adds an Important Safety Tip: Do not eat two-year old bird carcasses!]
Kids May Get Swine Flu Shots First
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: SurvivalBlog Readers in Antarctica »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Three-Month-Old Dies of Swine Flu in Argentina
Swine Flu Vax Poses Serious Threat to Your Health
New Flu Strain Has Mutated, Become More Infectious
Brazil Finds New Strain of Swine Flu
Seven More Swine Flu Deaths in NYC "City health officials estimate 253,000 people had the swine flu in Queens and Brooklyn alone during May."
House OKs $7.7 Billion to Respond to Flu Pandemic
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Escape From (Fill in Your City Here), 2009 »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Fears of Flu Strains Mixing
Herd of Alberta Pigs Got Swine Flu, But Not From the Carpenter
Novartis Will Not Give Free Swine Flu Shots to Poor Countries
Oz: 1/3 of Victorians May Have Swine Flu
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Getting Started With Dairy Goats »
Influenza Pandemic Update:
Britons urged not to panic, as flu cases spike
Baxter In "Full Scale" Production of Swine Flu Vaccine
UK Reports Its First Swine Flu Death
"First" Swine Flu Death In Europe
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Influenza Pandemic Update:
Don't Worry, It's Just a Pandemic Just redefining it so there is no panic.
Symptoms of Swine Flu and What to Do
Delayed Pandemic Phase 6 Designation Raises Pandemic Concerns "The parallels between the 2009 pandemic and the 1918 pandemic are striking; Both began as a mild infection in the spring and targeted previously healthy young adults. In the fall of 1918, the virus was much more deadly, leading to the death of 20-50 million people, most of which were previously healthy young adults....the two-month delay in the pandemic [phase] 6 declaration may prove to be quite hazardous to the world's health."
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Influenza Pandemic Update:
First batch of swine flu vaccine produced
Germs and flu are up; infection control is down; Recession forces hospitals to cut back on superbug safety, survey says
Swine flu may have been spreading in August
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Growing Food on a City Lot »
Flu Pandemic Update:
It's official: WHO declares first 21st century flu pandemic
NYC: 12 Dead from Swine Flu
Severe Flu Cases Surge in Manitoba (Canada) Aboriginal Community
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: It Matters Not Whether We Face Inflation or Deflation--You Need to Protect Yourself »
Mexican Flu Update:
The WHO Plays with Pandemic Fire
Serious Swine Flu Cases in Canada
WHO Says it May Declare Swine Flu Pandemic Soon
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: It Matters Not Whether We Face Inflation or Deflation--You Need to Protect Yourself »
Mexican Flu Update:
Ask The Doc: How Exactly Can Flu Kill A Healthy Person?
Models
Projections for Flu Miss Mark by Wide Margin (Thanks to Steve G. for
the link.)
Egypt Quarantines 234 In University Dorm Over Swine Flu
China Has 8 More Cases
Second Person Dies From Swine Flu In Chile
Swine Flu in Australia's Defense Forces
Second Washington Victim Dies of Swine Flu
Latest Swine Flu Stats
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Mexican Flu Update:
WHO Flu Alerts to Reflect Severity as Well as Spread
Ukraine Confirms 1st Case of Swine Flu
School Age California Child Dies of Swine Flu
2 UK Doctors Confirmed With Swine Flu
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Mexican Flu Update:
Swine Flu Sweeps Rikers Island
Oz Swine Flu at 876; WHO Mulls Pandemic
Flu Experts Discuss Severity Scale for WHO's Phase 6
As Swine Flu Wanes, US Preparing for Second Wave
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Walking Tractors and Similar Powered Farming Implements »
Mexican Flu Update:
WHO:
Swine Flu Alert Closer to Pandemic 64 countries, 18,965 cases, 117 deaths
(mostly US & Mexico) "'We still are waiting for
evidence of really widespread community activity in these countries, and
so it's fair to say that they are in transition and are
not quite there yet, which is why we are not in phase 6 yet,' Fukuda said."
NYC Reports Two New Deaths From Swine Flu Both aged 25-64, 553 total cases,
341 hospitalizations
Swine Flu In All 50 States More than 10,000 US residents confirmed infected.
Confirmed cases represent about
1 in 20 of actual cases. (JWR Adds: I guess its a little to
late to pull a "Madagascar.")
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Walking Tractors and Similar Powered Farming Implements »
Mexican Flu Update:
Swine
Flu Pandemic Likely to Hit UK tn Early Autumn Before Vaccine Ready John
Oxford, Prof. of Virology at St. Bartholomew's said "the number of
cases in Britain unrelated to travel suggested the H1N1 virus was "silently
spreading around. When children go back to school in September the virus has
an opportunity, and normally it takes it. That's the scenario we should prepare
for and that's what we are preparing for."
Swine Summer Spread Raises Pandemic Concerns
WHO official says world edging towards pandemic
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Mexican Flu Update:
Navy
to Try Swine Flu Vaccine on Human Subjects
Eton Closed After Positive Swine Flu Test
The WHO's
tally of countries where H1N1 has spread does not bode well for
next winter in the Northern Hemisphere. Let's just pray that it doesn't mutate
into a more deadly strain.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Seeking Reader Input for "Patriots" Sequels »
Mexican Flu Update:
Anger Over Breach of Quarantine in Oz
Swine Flu Infects 13,000 People in 46 Countries
« Mexican Flu Update: |Main| Letter Re: DIY Baking Powder Solves a Shelf Life Dilemma »
Letter Re: A Ship's Belated Flu Quarantine as an Object Lesson
Hi Jim,
Here is a bit about the progress of Swine Flu in Australia with this
article about a quarantined luxury cruise ship.
We now have a cruise ship, the P & O Pacific Dawn, being quarantined at
Willis Island on the Great Barrier Reef – with 2000 people on board.
Yesterday the ship was photographed flying the yellow quarantine flag! Our “brilliant” state
health departments let 20 infected people disembark at Sydney and they [then]
flew throughout Australia .
[Some background:] 13 of these people turned up at the Robina Hospital at
the Gold Coast and the staff at the hospital had no idea what to do with them.
The
people
were
put in a single room with a single bed and most of the family was made to sleep
on the floor. Authorities seemed to be clueless.
They (the New South S]Wales government) then let new passengers embark on the
infected ship and let the ship leave Sydney on a trip. They also let three
infected staff
sail
on the
new
voyage. No prizes for guessing what happened next. All people on board now
exposed to the swine flu and the ship has been quarantined.
I really enjoy your web log and I have been sharing it with my friends. Keep
up the great work and my prayers and best wishes to your wife with her illness.
Yours sincerely - Jamie in Queensland, Australia
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: A Ship's Belated Flu Quarantine as an Object Lesson »
Mexican Flu Update:
Hazardous
WHO Phase Daze "The constant rewriting of the phase system to avoid
calling a phase 6 pandemic a phase 6 pandemic does significant harm in the
monitoring of the pandemic,
as well as raising public awareness of the seriousness of the evolution and spread
of swine H1N1."
NYC Confirms Two More Deaths
56 Cases Confirmed In New Jersey
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Questions on EMP Protection »
Mexican Flu Update:
Scientist: UK Swine Flu Really 30,000
Swine
Flu Spreading Wider Than Official Data Shows So, if just 1 in 20 confirmed
cases
are being
reported in the US, then there are possibly now 100,000 US cases
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Dealing with Uninvited Guests »
Mexican Flu Update:
Face
Protection Effective in Preventing the Spread of Influenza, Study Suggests
Swine Flu Hits Spanish Military Base; 500 Quarantined
18 US Soldiers Have H1N1 in Kuwait
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: FDA Restricts Over the Counter Sales of Bulk-Size Hemostatic Supplies »
Mexican Flu Update:
WHO
Chief Says to Expect Severe Flu
Genetic Analysis of Swine Flu
WHO Warns of Double Influenza Threat
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Dealing with Uninvited Guests »
Mexican Flu Update:
Kudos to KAF for sending this piece: Researchers:
Swine Flu Genes Swirled for Decades Undetected
Emergency
Preparedness Exercises Held at Banks
Swine Flu Spreads in Australia
Some Older People May Be Immune to Swine Flu
Swine Flu Extends to Tokyo; 11,000 Cases Worldwide
56 Hospitalized with Swine Flu in NYC
Dr. Niman's World Flu Tracking Map
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Mexican Flu Update:
CDC
Finds Patterns in Swine Flu Hospitalizations
Swine Flu Combined with MRSA Could Kill Many
US
Swine Flu Deaths Hit Double Digits 21-year-old Utah man is #10
« Letter Re: Any Widespread Flu Will Overwhelm America's Emergency Medical Services |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Biological Threat Assessment and Containment, by Anon.T
When either you or your group is confronted with a biological threat [such
as a pandemic or biological warfare], you must determine the following before
making decisions either for yourself or
for your group.
1) What is the threat?
2) What is the incubation period prior to showing symptoms?
3) How contagious is the threat?
4) By what means is the threat contagious?
5) What is the morbidity rate?
6) What is the mortality rate?
Once you have determined these things, you can make sound decisions that can
get you and your group through a trying time.
Quarantine:
In the event that you are forced to deal with new members joining your group,
[during a pandemic] you will need to quarantine them for a set period of time.
This will assure you and your group that the new-comer's presence does not
cause harm
within
your group.
To set up quarantine you will need the following items which will be detailed
below:
Shelter
Food & Water
Disinfectant
Communication equipment -or- Another pre-determined way of communicating with
the quarantined.
Medicine
Symptom measuring devices and charts.
Rules that the quarantined must follow if they wish to become part of your
group.
A plan should the quarantined not follow those rules.
A plan should the quarantined show symptoms and/or become sick.
A way for the quarantined to expel waste that does not pose a risk of infection
to other members of the group.
There is not a single point above that can be neglected for any reason. Having
to survive a biological threat has nothing to do with niceties or with comfort.
Shelter:
A place [that is downwind,] away from all group activity for the person(s)
in question to be quarantined. How far away is far enough? Miles would be great
but it
is
probably
not economical
so do with what you have to ensure that your group never gets within a 1,000
feet of the quarantined.
Food & Water:
Whatever the food and water that you supply or that your possible guests bring,
they must have means of making it safe for human consumption.
Disinfectant:
You and the quarantined must be able to protect yourselves from the environment
and the biological threat. A strong bleach solution, a rag and a bucket
would be fine for disinfecting everything. Alcohol sanitizer and anti-bacterial
soap
are
luxuries
if you can
afford them.
Communication:
The group and the quarantined must be able to communicate for numerous reasons.
Humans get pent up if they are left in a confined place to their own devices
for long and to limit the risk of the quarantined coming too close to the group,
they must be able to communicate with the group from a safe distance.
Two-way radios with rechargeable batteries and a way to recharge them at the
quarantine site make the best answer to the communication problem, the only
problem is that they are expensive to have spares around and impossible to
outlast the quarantine if power isn’t available to recharge them.
In the absence of two way radios, your group should have a pre-determined plan
for communication should anyone be at risk for the threat, including any quarantined
individuals.
The group should never risk entering a place of possible contamination if it
can be avoided in any way, so a group should have a Communication Center set
up some distance away from the quarantined and a further distance away from
the group.
To allow the best ventilation, Communication Centers should never be indoors
so a tree, a table or a large rock, all make adequate places.
Each member (the group and the quarantined) should have a pen and multiple
sheets of paper (A dry erase board for each group would do fine) of their own
to write on and leave at the communication center. Each member should understand
the nature of the quarantine and the time at which the papers will be picked
up, read and possibly replied to that is consistent with the length of time
that the biological threat is thought to stay active on paper.
(e.g: Every 3 hours from __ a.m. - __ p.m.)
Medicine:
Your group should have medicine that can be used to treat common pains and
injuries so that the quarantined can be comfortable and it will be easier to
gauge their symptoms if they should have any.
Symptom Measuring Devises:
You should include devises that allow the measuring of all symptoms familiar
to the threat. Some adequate symptoms measuring devices include a Thermometer,
a watch for checking pulse and blood pressure and so on.
Rules:
Your group should have rules that everyone in the group must follow and separate
rules that the quarantined must follow if they wish to eventually enter your
group. These rules must include items like; Staying at least _00(0) feet away
from every member of the group at all times, keeping the quarantine area clean
and free of infection, following proper communication procedures, washing all
contaminated clothing upon entering the quarantine area and being honest with
the progression of any and all symptoms including minor symptoms that may or
may not be related to the threat.
Contingency plan for symptoms within the quarantined:
This plan needs special consideration because the quarantined may be members
of one’s own family or close friends and particular thought must be given
to how they will handle the onset of symptoms and how the group must handle
the quarantined should they become less than complacent including delivery
of proper medication to treat the threat.
Contingency plan if the quarantined does not follow the rules:
This plan should be relatively simple. Anyone who puts your group’s health
and safety at risk by not following the rules is not a valued member of any
group and should be avoided like the threat itself.
Waste Expulsion:
Human waste is possibly a carrier of the threat and since it cannot be avoided
it should be taken into consideration.
If there is a working toilet and sink at the quarantine site, by all means
use it.
In place of a working toilet and sink, the quarantined will have to take special
measures to not endanger the group. In an outdoor environment, the group will
have to dig a hole at the quarantine site (Prior to the visitor’s arrival)
at least 5-6 feet deep and mark that area with a flag easily visible to both
the quarantined and the group. The quarantined will then need to expel all
human waste in that hole and only in that hole (to limit the exposure of contaminants
to the quarantine site) and then kick a little bit of the pre-dug dirt back
into the hole covering the excrements.
This is the time where a little lime would go a long way. If at all possible
to acquire, get some lime prior to the threat to have on storage for just such
a need.
Quarantine Items:
2 - 5 Gallon bucket(s) or the equivalent.
Bleach
Rag(s)
Anti-Bacterial soap
Food that does not need cooking (Min. of incubation period worth of food if
able to spare) and additional food left at communication center every day.
Water or a clean water source
2 way radios with rechargeable batteries and a battery charger
Paper and Pens should the 2-way radios give out
Gloves
Mask(s)
Flag(s) for marking human waste site
Watch for keeping time for communication and symptoms
Thermometer
Toilet Paper (If available)
Quarantine Item Set Up:
All should be able to fit within the 5 gallon bucket with the exception of
food and water (Though a little will be placed in there in advance) including
the following items placed on the top:
Rules of the group
Expected quarantine Time
Rules of quarantine
Rules of communication
Rules:
This will be a pre-printed or pre-written page that will be given to
the prospective guests to read and decide whether they are willing to do the
things necessary to join the group.
Hello,
We are very glad to see you healthy and well and are taking the health and
wellness of our group extremely serious. In doing so, we have implemented rules
that you must adhere to without exception if you wish to join our group.
These rules may seem tedious but we are not taking chances when human life
is at stake just as we will not take chances in protecting your health or the
health of any new members to our group.
Firstly, we will not be having any face to face communication. In place of
this, we will provide, among other things, a 2 way radio, rechargeable batteries
and a battery charger so that we may communicate with each other at all times
(or another way of communicating as described later).
The current known incubation period of the threat that we face together is
____ hours or __ days. If you wish to join our group, you will be forced to
quarantine yourself in a location that we provide or set for ____ hours or
__ days to ensure your safety and the safety of our group. If you are not willing
to follow these rules including duration of quarantine, kindly set down this
sheet of paper now and walk away.
At no time will a group member come within 500 – 1,000 feet of you during
your time in quarantine. This is for the protection of all members of the group
and yourself. Do not violate this rule – Use the radio or the aforementioned
way of communicating in it’s place.
Once you enter your quarantine location, you will be required to stay within
_00(0) feet of your quarantine location until the time of quarantine is over.
If you breach this _00(0) feet marker which we will set or determine, you will
no longer be eligible for joining our group. Please follow this rule.
If you do not have food and water with you, food and water will be provided
for you at a drop point that we will disclose later.
Human Waste:
There will be a pre-dug designated latrine that will be used for the disposal
of all human waste. Human waste, which already poses a health safety hazard
is not to be expelled into any container but dropped directly from your body
into the designated latrine as you “go to the bathroom” after
which you are required to kick dirt or shovel lime back into the latrine
to cover
the waste.
Food disposal:
Only prepare as much food to eat and you are going to eat. Any food that is
not consumed is to be buried with the waste as noted above.
Self evaluation and symptom reporting:
We will provide you with the tools necessary to evaluate yourself. You will
be required to evaluate yourself twice a day, once in the morning and once
before bed. You must answer all items honestly. You are to report the following
items to the group:
Appetite: None, Normal or Excessive
Vision: Clear, Blurry or Normal
Fluid Consumption: Normal, Heavy or Low
Temperature:
Physical Well-Being: Tired, Energetic or Normal
Medications taken within the last 24 hours:
Pain: None or on a level of 1 – 10 with 10 being the worst pain you’ve
ever felt.
Stress Level: Low, Moderate or High
Symptoms: ________
Urine Excretion: Yellow, Cloudy or Clear (Was there a hot or burning sensation
when urinating?)
Waste Excretion: How many times a day and; Loose, firm, normal or painful.
Staying Healthy:
We expect that you came to us healthy and we want to see you remain that way.
Please eat 3 meals every day, drink plenty of liquids, busy yourself with items
you brought or by writing a story (not involving the current situation but
rather one that is purely fictional) and following the listed daily exercise
recommendations:
Walking: Even in a confined area, walking moves the blood through your system
and will provide a healthier you.
Arm and leg stretches: Stretching your arms and legs is a fundamental need
that every body has.
Not staying in one spot or position for an extended period of time.
Brushing your teeth daily with or without toothpaste and brushing your body
down (dry shower) with a rag are two essential ways of staying healthy.
Please do not perform any muscle building or muscle retaining exercises during
this time. Muscle building exercises break down your current muscle to rebuild
more and releases toxins into your system. Refrain from any such activity during
this time so as not to confuse the symptoms of muscle breakdown with symptoms
of the threat.
Positive Thought:
Negative thought will not be tolerated in our group. You are a strong person
and you will get through this. Please do not let the dire nature of this threat
overwhelm your sense of self worth or the free will that God gave to you. If
the threat seems overwhelming, know that you are strong and pray for the endurance
to see this through.
Carried Item Quarantine:
Please understand that the items that you brought with you may carry the threat
on them for an unknown amount of time. The group will decide which items can
be cleaned, used or disposed of without hesitation or regard to personal feelings.
You may at no time keep an item that the group feels is dangerous.
That is it. Those are the rules required by anyone who wishes to join our group
and anyone who leaves our group for any amount of time.
If you are not 100% sure that this move is right for you and 100% sure that
you will abide by these rules, there will be no hard feelings between us. Please
put this paper down on the ground, wave a goodbye and walk away now.
We thank you for your patience and understanding during these difficult times
that we all must face.
If you are positive beyond doubt that you will abide by these rules and any
rules that the group may impose in addition to these, please fold this paper
up and place it in either your shirt or pants pocket. At this time we will
disclose the location of items that we will be providing you and further our
communication together.
Go on to Document #2
Document #2 – On a separate sheet of paper
Hi,
We are very glad that you have chosen to quarantine yourself from our group
before joining it. This shows that you care as much about our well being
as we do yours and proves your willingness to put the group’s needs
ahead of your own. In no way does quarantine mean isolation, we look forward
to communicating
with you using the two way radios that we will provide or the use of a communication
center that we will set up.
We know that this can be an emotional time. Please do not let your emotions
run your self control, will for life or care for others. We are here to communicate
with you throughout this entire time and we look forward to spending time with
you once you join our group.
The location that you will be staying in during your quarantine is:
________________________________________________
We will provide the following items for you if you do not already have them
on hand.
2 - 5 Gallon bucket(s) or the equivalent (for the cleaning of clothes and items.)
Bleach
Rag(s)
Anti-Bacterial soap
Food that does not need cooking (Min. of incubation period worth of food if
able to spare) and additional food left at communication center every day.
Water or a clean water source
2 way radios with rechargeable batteries and a battery charger
Paper and Pens (In case the 2-way radios give out or for story writing)
Gloves
Mask(s)
Watch (for keeping time for communication and daily health evaluations.)
Thermometer
Toilet Paper (If available)
Radio Operation:
Provide instruction for radios here
Communication Center:
The communication center will be at the following location.
________________________________________________
We will be using the communication center for the supply or re-supply of
all goods including the items that you will get once entering quarantine.
We will
also use it for communication if the radios fail to work properly. We will
be checking for communication every ___ hours (1 hour beyond the time that
the threat is thought to survive on paper) from ____ a.m. to ____ p.m. daily.
Please flag a
new communication by placing __________ over the paper or dry erase board
for the group to see.
Proper Communication Etiquette:
As you can probably tell, we are limited by the items that we have on hand
including paper. Please write legibly and please tear off the paper at the
bottom of your communication so that the rest of the paper may be saved for
later use.
To limit the risk of exposure, we will not be touching any communication items
at the communication center. It will be your job to dispose of all paper used
for communication by placing it in the latrine.
Emergency Communication:
A true emergency is something that is life threatening and that cannot wait
until our next communication. We will never cry wolf to you so please express
the same care and respect for us.
If the need should arise for emergency communication, the universal distress
code that we will use is 3 of anything, 3 seconds apart.
That means 3 loud whistles 3 seconds apart, 3 bangs on the bottom of a bucket,
3 shouts using
the word “Emergency” or 3 blows on an air horn.
We will continue to use this code every 3 minutes until visual confirmation
can be made of the person issuing the emergency code and the group.
Example use of the Emergency Distress Code: Whistle Whistle Whistle – Wait
3 seconds - Whistle Whistle Whistle – Wait 3 seconds and then finally
Whistle Whistle Whistle now wait 3 minutes and repeat.
That covers it. We are so glad to see you well. Please fold this paper up,
place it in your pocket and follow the schedule below:
Schedule:
Now:
Gather your items and bring them with you to the quarantine site.
Leave all items well outside of the quarantine site until proper decontamination
can be fulfilled.
Before entering the Quarantine Site: Remove any outer clothing which may be
contaminated and place all items inside the bleach/water solution that is in
the bucket provided for you at the site.
Next, take a rag and rinse your body over with the bleach and water solution
from head to toes. Bleach will not hurt you at the strength it is diluted to.
Please wash well your hair, face, hands and all exposed body parts.
Dry off with clean rag provided.
Enter Quarantine site
« Mexican Flu Update: |Main| Biological Threat Assessment and Containment, by Anon.T »
Letter Re: Any Widespread Flu Will Overwhelm America's Emergency Medical Services
Dear Mr. Rawles,
As an avid SurvivalBlog reader since '05, I've got to say, the quality of your
blog continues to go up and up. Just when I think I can't possibly absorb
anything more, new posts appear that make me think, plan, and act.
Upon your
blog's advice, I have begun taking an EMT class at a local college to expand
my medical knowledge base. What the Paramedic teacher said today in class
gave me the chills. We were discussing all manner of diseases and then he touched on H1N1, the Swine Flu
and its possible affects upon the EMS system. He said that during the SARS crisis, which in our neck of the woods was just a brief scare, the volume of calls into the 911 center went up 10% for
several weeks due to everyone that had a cold thinking they had SARS. The EMS crews were advised that if they transported a patient with symptoms consistent
with SARS, that they were to disinfect the entire truck with a bleach and water
solution from top to bottom and then allow the truck to air dry for three hours
before it was placed back into service. He noted that in our county of around
1/2 million people, there were 20 to 30 ambulances on duty at any one time.
He dryly noted that it would not take much of a crisis in public health to bring the EMS system as we know it to
it's knees just based on the increase in call volume,not to mention
the ambulance down-time to disinfect the vehicles.
One solution [that the instructor] hypothesized, was a system of 911 triage
in a pandemic that said to callers, we will not transport you if you have the
flu; you are on your own to get to the hospital. I think this point should
be obvious to most SurvivalBlog readers but it dovetails nicely with the pharmacist's
postings regarding securing your anti-viral drugs now.
All the best to you and your family, - B.H.I.
JWR Adds: For anyone that missed my May 1st post about getting
ready for an influenza panic, this portion bears repeating:
I recommend that SurvivalBlog readers seriously think through the implications
of successive waves of Mexican Flu sweeping around the globe for the next three
years. From what we've already seen of its virulence after the normal "cold
and flu season", then the next couple of winters could bring very high
rates of infection and overwhelm the healthcare system. Please take the time
to watch Dr.
Henry Niman of
Recombinomics discussing"Swine" flu. His projections are disturbing,
to say the least! Think this through folks, on a macro scale: How would a pandemic
impact your work? Commuting? Grocery shopping? Church activities? School? (If
you are not yet homeschooling, then you should plan on it!) Your vacation plans?
Summer camp? Family holiday get-togethers? Sports and cultural
events? These
implications
are enormous. As SurvivalBlog readers, you are already accustomed to
contemplating
abstractions
at this level and getting "ahead of the power curve." You also likely
have
the
benefit
of
superior
training
and
a deep
larder. And, hopefully, many of you took my advice three years ago,
and began to develop home-based businesses. (Mail order businesses will undoubtedly
flourish, as people shun face-to-face
sales.)
There are no guarantees, but you have a better chance
of getting through this unscathed than most of your neighbors. Hopefully, all
of you read the backgrounder
on family flu preparedness, that I've had posted here are SurvivalBlog
for more than three years. But if not... Now is time to make
the requisite adjustments to your daily routine and to top off your
logistics:
- Now is the time to order several boxes of N95
masks
and
rolls of bandage tape (for sealing any mask edge gaps )
- Now is the time to buy a steam
vaporizer
(new,
or used -- Try Craig's
List for used ones)
- Now is the time to approach your family doctor, and ask
for a scrip for Tamiflu.
- Now is the time to lay in a supply of Sambucol (Elderberry
extract.)
- Now is the time to lay in supplies of hand sanitizer (with
aloe) and latex gloves--or nitrile gloves for those with latex allergies
- Now is the time to stock up on Vitamin C, Vitamin D, and Guaifenesin
expectorant
- Now is the time to buy a couple of Bag
Valve Masks
- And lastly, for this and umpteen other contingencies, now is
the time to acquire an honest one year supply of storage food (or more) for
your family. Buy some extra, for charity.
If you wait too long, then those supplies will either be non-existent, or
exorbitantly priced. By the time most of the sheeple think
this through (or have it explained to them by the talking heads on the Idiot
Box), you will have long since "topped off" your preps. But not
if you hesitate. As my friend Bob in Tennessee is fond of saying: "Panic
now, and avoid the rush."
Mark my words: A true pandemic will disrupt supply chains,
starting with relatively exotic items (such as antivirals), but eventually
working down to basic commodities. Be ready.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Any Widespread Flu Will Overwhelm America's Emergency Medical Services »
Mexican Flu Update:
WHO: Is This The Calm Before The Storm?
NYC Toddler Death, Adult In Missouri Raise Swine Flu Concerns
CDC: Not Out of the Flu Woods Yet
Swine Flu vs. Bird Flu: Which Is The Greater Pandemic Threat?
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Three Letters Re: Stocking Up on Prescription Medicines »
Mexican Flu Update:
WHO
May Raise Flu Level--Japanese Cases Leap
Japan
Reports 173 Swine Flu Cases, Closes Schools
WHO:
No Swine Flu Vaccine Available For Months
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Carpal Tunnel Syndrome and Difficulty Racking Pistol Slides »
Mexican Flu Update:
New flu virtually everywhere in U.S. now, CDC says
WHO chief kept flu alert level at phase 5+
New York school
vice-principal dies from swine Flu (Thanks to KAF for alerting us to
this news story)
A New, New H1N1 In Mexico?
Nations
Urge WHO to Change Swine Flu Assessment They want pandemic called only if
lots of people are dying (not because it is
widespread) because of money: "A pandemic announcement would likely have
severe economic consequences: it could trigger expensive trade and travel restrictions
like border closures, airport screenings and quarantines, as countries not yet
affected struggle to keep the virus out."
Transmission of Swine Flu In Japan = Phase 6
CDC: Swine Flu Virtually Everywhere in US
Military Implications of Pandemic Flu
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Prince of Wales Island, Alaska as a Retreat Locale? »
Mexican Flu Update:
CDC:
Up to 100,000 Are Probably Infected in US US Deaths at five, all reportedly
with underlying health problems. Globally, 7,000 (which means many more cases
than have been confirmed)
Swine
Flu Cases Continue to Rise But No Pandemic Called Yet "Fukuda notes
a pandemic has nothing to do with the severity of the disease, but rather with
its geographic spread."
Avian Flu Beaten By Cold Noses
WHO
eyes swine flu transmission rates, new vaccine
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: Which Form of Precious Metals? »
Mexican Flu Update:
Vasilly wrote to mention a
computer model that Los Alamos National Lab did in of a "Simulation
of a pandemic flu outbreak in the continental United States, initially introduced
by the arrival of 10 infected individuals in Los Angeles." He heard
about this when listening to Episode 19 of the Preparedness Podcast.
Confirmed Swine Flu Cases in Washington Jump to 236
Fewer than 33% of Americans Would Take Flu Jab
Swine Flu Spreads Worldwide--Over 5,700 Infected
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: "Patriots" Book Sighting in Downtown Chicago »
Mexican Flu Update:
Swine
Flu Spreads to More Countries
Australian
Research Says Swine Flu May Be Result of "Human Error";
CDC Investigates Claim
I noticed that the excellent Flu Wiki
web site has been updated and expanded.
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Ideas for Home-Based Businesses? »
Mexican Flu Update:
China Confirms First Mainland Case of Swine Flu
Swine Flu Tally 29 Countries, 4,379 Cases
CDC: Flu Numbers Represent a Very Great Underestimation
Swine Flu is as Severe as 1957 Pandemic, Two Million Deaths
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Two Letters Re: A Practical Tip on Using Roof Catchment Rainwater »
Mexican Flu Update:
Top
Flu Expert Warns of a Swine-Bird Flu Mix
12
More Swine Flu Cases Confirmed in Massachusetts
First Flu Death in Canada; US Cases Rise
Mexico Deaths; Cases Higher than Reported
Swine
Flu May Be More Infectious than Thought
Swine Flu Moments and Decisions Lie Ahead
WHO
Reports Big Jump in Worldwide Swine Flu Cases 3,440 Cases, 29 Countries,
48
Deaths
Japan, Oz Confirm First Cases of Swine Flu
Swine Flu Lacks 1918 Killer Traits (So Far)
US, Costa Rica Flu Deaths Mexico has suspected upswing in cases, delaying
school reopening in six states
Number of American Flu Cases Overtake Mexico's; Now Almost 3,000
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Three Letters Re: Deer Ticks - The Threat Within Your Perimeter »
Mexican Flu Update:
WHO Says Up to Two Billion Will Get Swine Flu
Swine Flu: A Survivor's Tale
Swine Flu Kills
30-Something Woman in Texas (First US Citizen Casualty)
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Concerns About Toxicity in Water From Roof Catchment Rainwater »
Mexican Flu Update:
Heather sent a link to an article was featured in Seven Days (an
ultra-liberal newspaper in Burlington, Vermont: The
Pandemic Pantry; Stocking up on staples, just in case. Heather's comment: "I
think this article illustrates the fact that the preparedness mindset
is starting to reach the mainstream. Maybe the sheeple are beginning
to catch on? The article on the side talks about the LDS Church.
While I have theological disagreements with the LDS I think their food storage
program is outstanding."
KAF sent us this: Another
Swine Bug Raises Scientists' Concerns. KAF's comment: "This is particularly
disturbing. When Egypt began mass slaughtering the pigs, I thought they
were mad. Now I am wondering if perhaps they knew something we are just
finding
evidence of? "
Via K.J.'s e-mail: Confirmed
US swine flu cases rises to 896
From Tricia: WHO:
Up to 2 billion people might get swine flu
Decision on Flu Vaccine Looms
Does WHO need
to declare flu a full pandemic? (Thanks to Ray V. for the link.)
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Expanding the Family Larder with Coupon Shopping »
Mexican Flu Update:
Second strain of flu may complicate picture-study
U.S. reports 642 new H1N1 flu cases
What's wrong with this picture? Teacher
Tests Negative for Swine Flu but Then
She Dies of the Flu
This was linked at the Drudge Report: CDC: US public at risk from complacency
over
flu
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Bicycles in War, a Book Review by by Michael Z. Williamson »
Mexican Flu Update:
As the H1N1 flu spreads across
the nation and around
the globe, the key question seems to be: It the
flu is spreading this quickly in warm weather, then what will it do next
winter, when people are generally in closer proximity, indoors? The CDC has
vowed to "...continue to get ready for a possible pandemic in the fall."
Clearly,
prudence dictates that we be well-prepared,
so stock up!
The latest flu headlines:
Jim S. suggested
a video from an academic on the
implications of H1N1 hitting Phase 5.
Chan
hits back at WHO critics. (Thanks to Greg C. for the link.)
At Bloomberg: Swine
Flu May Merge with Other Flu Viruses, CDC Says
Linked at Drudge: Mexico to resume business, pork row erupts
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Letter Re: Responding to a CBRNE Event, by J. Paramedic »
Mexican Flu Update:
Reader RG in Arizona recommended this article: Scientists
dig for lessons from past pandemics
Mexico: No New Swine Flu Deaths; Cases Up to 443
UK: Supermarkets Prepare For Panic Buying
Why
the Flu Can Never Be Eradicated
CDC Current Statistics 21
states, 160 cases, 1 death ("officially")
More Schools Shut As Swine Flu Spreads (430 schools) "The government
issued new guidance for schools with confirmed cases, saying they should close
for at least 14 days because children can be contagious for
seven to 10 days from when they get sick. That means parents can expect to have
children at home for longer than previously thought."
In California, Cases Suggest Border Origin
More
on the Latest Three Bank Takeovers
H1N1
(Swine) Flu Cases in 15 Countries China, Hong Kong, Denmark confirm outbreaks.
Now in 15 countries. "The regions
hardest hit are in the western hemisphere, said a WHO spokesman. We have not
seen sustained human-to-human transmission anywhere outside the Americas
region," he added."
Two
Human-To-Human Transmissions Confirmed in UK "Until now, cases were
confined to people who had themselves recently come
back from Mexico."
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Responding to a CBRNE Event, by J. Paramedic »
Mexican Flu Update:
SurvivalBlog reader Laurence W. wrote to warn that it is premature to post
early estimates that the Mexican Flu is mild. "It may or may not be.
There are not enough data points yet to speak authoritatively.
All one can correctly say is that it is too early to tell." He cited
recent some well-informed discussion threads in the Flu
Wiki Forum and the PlanForPandemic.com
Forum.
Reader Laura C. recommended visiting the US
Archives Online Exhibit of 1918 Flu.
Photographs and Letters.
141
Cases, 19 States "The World Health Organization is warning of an
imminent pandemic because scientists cannot predict what a brand-new virus
might do. A key concern is whether
this spring outbreak will surge again in the fall."
Farmers Fear Pigs Might Get Flu from Us
Swine Flu Originated on California Border?
Toddler Who Died in Texas Visited Houston Mall Before Onset of Symptoms
Swine Flu Starting to Look Less Threatening
First Genetic Analysis of Swine Flu Reveals Potency
Confirmed Number of Global Swine Flu Cases: 367 and Counting
« Six Letters Re: Adapting Family Food Storage for Gluten Intolerance |Main| Note from JWR: »
Letter Re: The Rush Has Begun for Flu Prep Logistics
Aloha James,
To confirm your take on the need to prepare ahead of time, I realized last
weekend that this current event (Mexican Flu) would be a good opportunity
to actually measure public reaction to an emergency. Thus, once the government
announced a health emergency on Saturday, I began watching the shelves at
three local drug stores and Amazon. Here's what happened in Honolulu, Hawaii
(a city of 800,000 and an international airport hub).
Saturday - all shelves full of flu meds & masks
Sunday - masks half gone, some in the back of the store, shelves full of flu
meds
Monday - masks half gone, none in the back of the store, shelves half full
of flu meds
Tuesday - masks gone, back ordered, shelves half full of flu meds
Wednesday - while I was sitting in my kid's dentist office, two employees of
other businesses in the mall came by and asked the receptionists for masks.
Both said they looked everywhere and couldn't find any. The receptionist could
only spare one each. Stores still running half full shelves of flu meds.
Watching Amazon - on Saturday you could buy the surgical N95 masks (green ones),
by Monday they were sold out and white N95s were $13.98 for 20. By Wed, the
white ones went up to $15.99, and other merchants were selling theirs for $59.99
for 20, with one merchant advertising their "last box" of 20 for
$299!
If this doesn't convince people to stock up and stock up early, I don't know
what will. Three days; that's all it took for the city to run out of masks,
and I can only surmise by this, that it would only take a few more days to
run out of flu meds if the news reported someone locally had the Mexican Flu.
I hope fellow readers get the point.
Thank you for your excellent blog. I'm on the June waiting list for my copy
of Patriots and look forward to reading it. Keep up the great work! - KJ in
Honolulu, Hawaii
« Economics and Investing: |Main| Six Letters Re: Adapting Family Food Storage for Gluten Intolerance »
Mexican Flu Update:
The first really good news on the flu outbreak came yesterday: Scientists
See this Flu Strain as Relatively Mild. I am hopeful that the current strain
won't mutate into something more inimical. But be sure to be
well prepared, and get in the habit of frequent
hand washing, regardless.OBTW, if I were in a position of influence, I'd recommend
that the custom of handshaking be temporarily replaced with saluting, as was
done
during the 1918 Spanish
Flu Pandemic. (But alas, these days some segments of society might see that
as
overly militaristic
and politically incorrect.)
Reader Pat M. suggested an
interesting article in Science Daily on social isolation to prevent
the spread of influenza.
OBTW, to minimize "casual
contact",
I recommend curtailing social events, and shifting to family wilderness activities
such
as hiking
and rock hounding.
If
you are
a
target
shooter, instead of going to public ranges do your shooting on
remote BLM land, or on private land (with permission.)
The latest flu headlines:
The Binder sent us a link to a Newsweek article that suggests that
the number of flu cases may be under-reported in Mexico: City
of Fear; How the swine flu is terrorizing Mexico's capital. An on-scene report.
Queensland
residents told to stockpile food amid flu fear
WHO
to Stop Using Term "Swine Flu" to Protect Pigs
Vaccine Promised as US Cases Passes 100
More than 40 Probable Cases in Illinois
48 Confirmed Cases in New York State
Three New Cases Confirmed in Britain
Swine Flu Spreads to 11 States, 100 Schools Closed
Pandemic of Panic
E-mail From Trucker to Steve Quayle
Government Issues Guidance on Facility Closure: School Dismissal and Childcare
More
Than 300 Schools Now Closed in US "Closing a school alone won't stop
community spread. "If a school is
closed, it's not closed so kids can go out to the mall or go out to the community
at
large," Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano said. "Keep
your young ones at home."
Hong Kong Confirms Asia's First Case of Swine Flu (now known as H1N1) Detected
in Mexican man who had come from Shanghai.
Security Agent Likely Caught Swine Flu on Trip with Obama
NYC Mayor Says Many Sick People Not Tested, Number of Cases Probably Higher
Doctor in Washington State Saw 22 Patients Before Falling Ill
Ft. Worth: Mayfest, Other Events Cancelled Over Flu Concerns
Harvard Medical School Cancels Classes Over Possible Swine Flu
« SurvivalBlog Reader Survey Results: Conveniently Bypassed Areas |Main| Note from JWR: »
Mexican Flu Update
I recommend that SurvivalBlog readers seriously think through the implications
of successive waves of Mexican Flu sweeping around the globe for the next three
years. From
what we've already seen of its virulence after the normal "cold
and flu season", then the next couple of winters could bring very high
rates of infection
and overwhelm the healthcare system. Please take the time to watch Dr.
Henry Niman of
Recombinomics discussing"Swine" flu. His projections
are disturbing, to say the least! Think this through folks, on a macro scale:
How would a pandemic impact your work? Commuting? Grocery shopping? Church activities?
School? (If you are not yet homeschooling, then you should plan on it!) Your
vacation
plans? Summer camp? Family holiday get-togethers? Sports and cultural
events? These
implications
are enormous. As SurvivalBlog readers, you are already
accustomed
to contemplating
abstractions
at this level and getting "ahead of the power curve." You also likely
have
the
benefit
of
superior
training
and
a deep
larder.
And, hopefully,
many
of you took my advice three years ago, and began to develop home-based businesses.
(Mail order businesses will undoubtedly flourish, as people shun face-to-face
sales.)
There are no guarantees, but you have a better chance
of getting through this
unscathed than most of your neighbors. Hopefully, all of you read the backgrounder
on family flu preparedness, that I've had posted here are SurvivalBlog
for more
than
three
years.
But
if
not... Now is
time
to make the requisite adjustments to your daily routine and to top
off
your
logistics:
- Now is the time to order several boxes of N95
masks and
rolls of bandage tape (for sealing any mask edge gaps )
- Now is the time to buy a steam
vaporizer (new,
or used -- Try Craig's
List for used ones)
- Now is
the
time to approach
your family doctor, and
ask for a scrip for Tamiflu.
- Now is
the time to
lay in a supply of Sambucol (Elderberry
extract.)
- Now is the time to lay in supplies
of hand sanitizer (with aloe) and latex gloves--or nitrile gloves for
those with latex allergies
- Now is the time to stock up on Vitamin C, Vitamin D, and Guaifenesin expectorant
- Now is the time to buy a couple of Bag Valve Masks
- And
lastly, for
this and umpteen other contingencies, now is
the time to acquire an honest one year supply of storage food (or more) for
your family. Buy some extra, for charity.
If
you
wait
too long,
then those
supplies
will
either be
non-existent,
or exorbitantly priced. By the time most of the sheeple think
this through (or have it explained to them by the talking heads on the
Idiot Box),
you will have long since "topped off" your
preps. But
not if you
hesitate. As my friend Bob in Tennessee is fond of saying: "Panic
now, and avoid the rush." [The Memsahib adds: If you've been consistently
panicking since 1999 with no ill effects on your spouse's mental health,
then give yourself a pat on the back.]
Mark my words: A true pandemic will disrupt supply chains,
starting with relatively exotic items (such as antivirals), but eventually
working down to basic commodities. Be ready.
Today's flu headlines:
Panic buying and government distrust in Mexico
1st
US Swine Flu Death: Toddler in Texas (visiting from Mexico) Flu also
now in Austria and Germany
"Patient Zero" may have been found. A 5-yr-old who lives near a pig
farm.
Access to Safe, Reliable Food Essential in Pandemic
Swine Flu Tracking On-Line
Ron Paul: Putting Swine Flu in Perspective
Dr. Len Horowitz: Mexican Flu Outbreak 2009 Special Report
Swine Flu Worries Shut Down Three Private California Schools
US Swine Flu Cases Now Officially at 68
Schwarzenegger, Obama Boosts Efforts Against Swine Flu
WHO Warns Swine Flu Threatening to Become Pandemic
World Takes Drastic Steps to Contain Swine Flu
Biden Tells Family to Stay Off Planes, Subways
Mexico Shuts Nonessential Services Amid Swine Flu
Asia Suspected Swine Flu Cases Rise
All Ft. Worth, Texas, Schools Closed Over Flu Fears
49 Confirmed Cases in NYC
CDC Latest Facts and Figures Re Swine Flu
Obama: US May Close Schools to Battle Swine Flu
Swine Flu Could Threaten Millions with Other Diseases
« Letter Re: Adapting Family Food Storage for Gluten Intolerance |Main| Jim's Quote of the Day: »
Mexican Flu Update
Cheryl wrote to mention an article that described using Vitamin
D to prevent a cytokine storm The dose is 2,000
units of Vitamin D per kilogram (1 kg = 2.2046 pounds), once per day. Thus,
for an average 150 lb. adult, the dose would be would
be
136,060 units of Vitamin D. This is to be taken for three days. (I.U. Equivalence:
50,000
units = 1.25 mg) My Strong Proviso: The usual fat soluble vitamin (KADE)
warnings apply. Don't over-do a good thing. You should discuss vitamin D testing and replacement with your physician before acting on that doctor's recommendations! Vitamin D supplement limits vary depending on body weight, diet, and exposure to the sun.
Today's flu headlines:
WHO
pandemic threat level raised to 5 out of 6
New Flu Strain is a Genetic Mix
First
US Swine Flu Death, Cases Now in 10 States
France urges Mexican flight ban
Cuba Halts Mexico Travel (First Country to Do So)
Pandemic Risk Grows as New Cases Emerge US cases now at 64, Mexico 152 dead,
over 2,000 infected
US Flu Deaths Seem Likely as Outbreak Spreads
Scary Advertisements From 1976 Flu Outbreak Today they tell us to stay calm
Mexico
City Mayor: One more death, toll stabilizing
« My Experience with a Field Gear Invention, by Mike B. |Main| Notes from JWR: »
Mexican Flu Update
It has been reported that the incubation period for the Mexican Swine
Flu is 4-to-5 days, and perhaps as long as 10 days in children.
That's the "hot" period when someone infected is shedding the virus.
This is bad news for epidemiologists. With modern air travel, this means that
there
is
probably no stopping the flu from making it to the far reaches of the globe.
So now, all that we can do is wait, watch, and pray that it doesn't mutate into
a more lethal strain. Barring that, my guesstimate is that it will be every country
with a couple of months. The crucial time will be next
winter
in
the
Northern Hemisphere. It is now Fall in the Southern Hemisphere, so their upcoming
flu season might give us a preview of what
will
happen up here, next year. Are you ready
to hunker down when the flu hits your
town?
Here are today's flu headlines:
The
Government’s Forecast if Flu Problem Explodes: Two Million Americans
Die "Ninety million citizens would get sick. The economy would shut
down."
DHS Sets Guidelines For Possible Swine Flu Quarantines
Official:
US Flu Victims May Be Infecting Others Confirmed cases in Asia Pacific
and New Zealand
Schumer
Bragged About Cutting Pandemic Funding (Well, now we are all in Deep
Schumer.)
Swine Flu More Dangerous than Bird Flu
Why
Does the Swine Flu Kill Healthy People?
WHO Revises Scale For Pandemic Alerts
Mexican
Reports: Flu Much Worse Than Reported "The truth is that anti-viral
treatments and vaccines are not expected to have any effect, even at high doses.
It is a great fear among the staff. The
infection risk is very high among the doctors and health staff. There is a sense
of chaos in the other hospitals and we do not know what to do. Staff are starting
to leave and many are opting to retire or apply for holidays. The truth is that
mortality is even higher than what is being reported by the authorities, at least
in the hospital where I work it. It is killing three to four patients daily,
and it has been going on for more than three weeks." - Dr. Antonio Chavez
Two Swine Flu Cases Confirmed in Scotland
Swine Flu Boosts Demand For Face Masks, Antivirals
Swine
Flu Warning Raised as Virus Crosses Continents Now at Level 4. Could
become Level 5 in the next few days.
Washingtonians Prepare for Swine Flu
Flu: Worst Case Scenario
Swine
Flu Epidemic Enters Dangerous New Phase "The virus poses a potentially
grave new threat to the U.S. economy, which was showing tentative early signs
of a recovery. A widespread outbreak could
batter
tourism, food and transportation industries, deepening the recession in the
U.S. and possibly worldwide."
40 Cases of Swine Flu in US to Date (No Deaths)
WHO Confirms Pandemic Alert Level Raised to Level 4
Swine Flu Cases Around the World
Swine
Flu Fears Close Schools in CA, TX, NY
Americans Told to Wear Masks as Swine Flu Spreads Around the World
« Letter Re: Sambucol and the Cytokine Storm |Main| Note from JWR: »
Mexican Flu Update
The new H1N1 swine-avian-human influenza is certainly getting its share
of headlines. It will be interesting to see how this event progresses, and
the reactions of the populace and governments. Here are some updates:
The Mexican Flu now has a
Wikipedia page that seems to be kept quite up to
date.
Here is a Google map showing
the locales of confirmed and suspected cases
Doc D. mentioned this piece at Mashable: How
To: Track Swine Flu Online
SurvivalBlog readers in Texas and Southern California have already noted shortages
of Sambucol at their local drug stores. It is safe to assume that if the contagion
spreads rapidly that there will be lots of shortages of N95
respirators, disposable coarse-mesh paper masks (not much good against
even clumped viruses), hand
sanitizer, Tamiflu, Sambucol, Cipro, and canned goods.
Several SurvivalBlog readers have written to mention that Mexico City
is a powder keg. For example, reader Greg C. wrote to ask: "Has anyone thought
about where 20 million residents of Mexico City will go when
they all start to panic and bug out of the city?"
Have you ever wondered how viruses can spread so quickly? A YouTube
animation of airline flight paths is fascinating. (Thanks to Susan W. for
the link.)Whilst there, I spotted a
worldwide view of air traffic.
Safecastle (one of our advertisers), reports that they've had a huge increase
in sales of HarzardID
decontamination kits. I don't expect those to last long.
News Headlines: (Special thanks to Cheryl, aka "The Economatrix"
for sending most of these)
Swine flu and deaths in healthy adults--cytokine storm?
Asia on alert over swine flu threat
Face
Masks Analyzed as Aid in Flu Pandemic (Thanks to Matt R for the link.)
Matt adds: "Home Depot and Lowe's both sell
N95 respirators." (So do several Internet vendors such as Ready
Made Resources.) And speaking of masks, Chris W. suggested a FDA
reference page.
WHO Declares International Concern Over Swine Flu
Mexico May Isolate Patients with Deadly Swine Flu
Eight
New York Students Likely Have Strain of Swine Flu 30 children in Bronx
daycare have flu-like symptoms
Swine
Flu Could Mutate to More Dangerous Strain
No
New Local Cases of Swine Flu Reported Locally (San Diego, CA) "However,
they continued to caution that more illnesses are likely to surface as local,
state and federal disease investigators examine more people
suffering
flu-like symptoms."
Swine
Flu to Be Probed, No Pandemic Yet (Imperial Valley, CA)
Mexico
Fights Swine Flu With "Pandemic Potential"
Swine flu cases discovered in Canada
NYC School Cases Confirmed Swine Flu
U.S. Declares Public Health Emergency Over Swine Flu
Swine
Flu Empties Mexico City's Streets Official Numbers: 81 dead, 1,324 infected
in Mexico; Suspected cases elsewhere including New Zealand
Swine Flu Fears as New Zealand Students Quarantined
CDC: Flu Has Spread Widely, Cannot Be Contained
Texas Health Dept. Closes School; Bans Sick Reporter From News Conference
Third Texas Case Of Swine Flu Confirmed; Family Quarantined
Seventh
Case of Swine Flu Confirmed in California
US
to begin asking about flu at the border. (Why didn't they close the
border, 48 hours ago?)
Canada Confirms Four Cases
Mexico Streets Empty as Swine Flu Toll Climbs
Swine Flu: White House Has Unusual Sunday Briefing
Anxiety Grips Hospital Waiting Rooms as Fears of Swine Flu Spread Through the
City
World
on Alert Over Mexican Killer Swine Flu as Pandemic Fears Rise Suspected
cases also in France, Israel. Medical personnel said symptoms began like normal
flu, but then victims' temperatures shot up, with paralysing muscle
aches.
Swine Flu: Panic Spreads Worldwide
British Airways Cabin Crew Member Quarantined; Fell Ill on Flight to UK From
Mexico
And in closing, here is a PDF to keep in your reference file: a
very detailed description of how to perform Chest Physical Therapy on a person
who is having difficulty clearing their lungs. (A tip of the hat to reader
John H.)
« Letter Re: Caught Between OPSEC and a Hard Place |Main| Mexican Flu Update »
Letter Re: Sambucol and the Cytokine Storm
Jim,
Reading through your flu background article [Protecting
Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic], I found your mention of [the Elderberry
extract] Sambucol. I'm going to get some but you might want to read the
article on Elderberry posted at the fluwiki web site.
It sounds generally positive about Sambucol for seasonal flu, but does say
this regarding avian flu:
"However, elderberry also increases cytokine production. One specific
concern with H5N1 infections is the possibility that this strain of flu may
induce
cytokine storm, leading to ARDS and the high mortality associated with it.
It is unknown if the increased circulating cytokines that elderberry and other
alternative medicines induce could increase a victims risk of cytokine storm.
Medical science does not currently know the exact mechanism that triggers cytokine
storm. We cannot say if increased cytokine levels before or during infection
is a risk factor for ARDS or an effect of some other mechanism that begins
the inflammatory cascade that results in it. High cytokine levels are documented
to be associated with ARDS, but causation is unknown..."
Regards, - Matt R.
« Letter Re: Atheism and Choosing Your Neighborhood |Main| Note from JWR: »
The Mexican Flu and You
In the past
24 hours I've received dozens of e-mails from SurvivalBlog readers about the
emerging Mexican Flu. Some news stories have included cryptic comments from
heath officials, implying that the mechanism of infection makes this particular
virus "very difficult to contain." This leads
me to conclude that those infected have a long latency period during which
they are infectious, yet, they do not display frank symptoms. This does not
bode well for any hopes of containing the spread of the virus.
Then we hear a
CDC official stating: "The swine flu virus contains four different
gene segments representing both North American swine and avian influenza, human
flu and a
Eurasian swine
flu." That strikes we as something very peculiar.
The disease is respiratory, and has one strong similarity to the 1918 Spanish Flu: "The
majority were young adults between 25 and 45 years old," said one official
under
the condition of anonymity. Since, young and healthy people with strong immune
systems are the most likely to succumb, this might indicate that the biggest
killer is a cytokine storm--a collapse caused by the human immune
system's over-reaction to a
pathogen.
I strongly recommend that everyone reading this take the
time to re-read my background article on flu self-quarantine and other precautions: Protecting
Your Family From an Influenza Pandemic. The details that I give there are
quite important. Pay special attention to my discussion of the shortage
of hospital
ventilators.
If anyone in your family is immunosuppressed, consider
yourselves on alert. Make your final preparations to hunker down,
immediately.
In the next few days, there is a good chance of wholesale panic, including
some well-publicized "runs" --probably first for hand sanitizer and face masks,
and soon after for bottled
water and groceries. Plan on it.
UPDATE: The BBC News
web page Mexico
flu: Your experiences has some updates posted from individuals
in Mexico City
To summarize, here are some key quotes from a
recent article:
"This outbreak is particularly worrisome because deaths have happened
in at least four different regions of Mexico, and because the victims have
not been vulnerable infants and elderly.
"The most notorious flu pandemic, thought to have killed at least 40 million
people worldwide in 1918-19, also first struck otherwise healthy young adults."
...
"But it may be too late to contain the outbreak, given how widespread the
known cases are. If the confirmed deaths are the first signs of a pandemic, then
cases are probably incubating around the world by now, said Dr. Michael Osterholm,
a pandemic flu expert at the University of Minnesota.
"No vaccine specifically protects against swine flu, and it is unclear
how much protection current human flu vaccines might offer."
Current statistics show a less than 10% lethality rate, but of course the
first wave of flu victims are getting access to the best medical care available.
If the contagion spreads, sheer numbers will quickly overwhelm hospital
facilities--particularly the number of mechanical ventilators available. So
the lethality rate may rise, even if there is not a viral mutation.
Here
are the latest headlines on the flu, as well as some background pieces. I'll
post
more
links,
as they
become
available.
Swine Flu, Mexico Lung Illness Heighten Pandemic Risk
Swine flu could infect U.S. trade and travel
Mexico Races to Stop Deadly Flu Virus
Spanish Flu Survivors Remember
Some Facts About Past Flu Pandemics
WHO ready with antivirals to combat swine flu
Possible Swine Flu Outbreak at NYC Prep School
California Expects To Find More New Flu Cases
Swine Flu Jitters Sparks Sell-Off In US Hogs
Swine Flu Resources
Most Mexico fatal flu victims aged between 25-45
Swine
Flu May Be Named Event of ‘International Concern’ by WHO
[A UK] County's masterplan to deal with flu pandemic
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Letter Re: The CDC's Suggestions on Preparing for Future Flu Pandemics
Mr Rawles:
My sister-in-law works for one of the large food bakeries. They make a well-known
cracker that is purchased by a large portion of the US population every day.
She manages health and safety for a number of their bakeries and recently
attended a conference on pandemics hosted by the Centers for Disease Control
(CDC). The CDC is holding these conferences for companies producing staple
foodstuffs
as
they
say it
isn't "if" we will see a flu pandemic but "when".
The conference was a real eye-opener for my sister-in-law. The CDC says that
we will either have a flu pandemic or avian flu pandemic within the next 10
years (likely earlier rather than later). The following recommendations for
key personnel of the bakery was provided by the CDC as they believe we will
see absenteeism over 50% during a pandemic. They want food manufacturers to
be able to continue production during a pandemic.
Here are the top three:
1. Have a supply of Tamiflu on hand. Roche offers companies a program that
will store Tamiflu for them in advance for a fee. Roche will rotate the stock
on a regular basis to guarantee freshness and ship it immediately to key personnel
in the event of a pandemic. Individuals should get their physician to write
a prescription and keep some on hand. Tamiflu will be in short supply during
a pandemic.
2. Get a flu shot every year. The CDC is making a concerted effort to get flu
shots offered to everyone, not just targeted groups anymore.
3. Get a pneumonia vaccination. Pneumonia is the actual cause of death in many
flu cases. The CDC is now recommending that key personnel get this vaccine.
Many flu shot clinics also offer the pneumococcal vaccine as well. You will
have to be persistent in requesting it as they are hesitant to give it to the
general population. The CDC is trying to limit it in order to keep it available
for targeted groups.
It will be very difficult to limit contact to both other people and livestock
in the event of a pandemic. By following these three recommendations, you should
be able to reduce your chances of dying during a pandemic. - Rangemaster
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Letter Re: Preparing for Pole Shift?
Mr. Rawles,
I have been trying to find out more about the consequences of a polar shift,
particularly the effects it will have on the Great Lakes Region. I know that
no one really knows what will happen, but everything I've seen points to something
really really bad. If possible could you post what knowledge you may have on
the subject on SurvivalBlog?
Thank you, - Scott from Michigan
JWR Replies: Rapid
pole shift is a little more than an unsupported theory,
touted mainly by the
Art Bell crowd. In my opinion it should be one of the
least of your worries. Even if rapid magnetic pole reversal does happen (and
there
is far
more evidence
that very gradual pole movement is what actually occurs), it might be
a "once in 100,000 years" event. Instead of concentrating on that,
you should get ready for a major economic depression, which is demonstrably
a "once-every-few-generations" event.
And,
BTW, a depression seems
to be
unfolding now, right before our eyes. Also consider what
you'll
need to do to be ready for a
pandemic
influenza. Such pandemics are more likely "once-every-few-generations" events.
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Letter Re: A Tasmanian's Perspective on Preparedness
Hi,
I have been reading SurvivalBlog now for several months and really enjoyed
the articles. I live in Hobart, Tasmania, Australia . For those who don’t
know the place and I imagine there are many who are unfamiliar with this part
of the world, it’s an
island at the bottom of Australia.
I work on disease protection for the government. This involves responding
to bird flu pandemics, terrorist attacks etc. Being an island at the bottom
of
the world with not many threats, it’s an easy job. But I do believe that
there is lots of trouble coming in the future from climate change, increasing
world populations in areas that cannot support any more people, Peak
Oil, et
cetera. So in my view, thinking people should prepare for trouble ahead and
develop personal plans for survival.
The reason I have written in
today is
that from some of the posts that people have submitted to SurvivalBlog, many
are planning just for total breakdown in society, everyone for themselves,
point
the guns
out the door and survive at all costs. From my limited reading and understanding
of such situations, total breakdown would only occur in extreme events like
total nuclear war. For example, even in Germany during war time with the Russians
advancing one direction, and the allies the other, it had a functioning society
where you could buy goods and services and the government still functioned.
Thus perhaps people should have several plans. One for total breakdown (like
nuclear war), one for minor disruptions like financial meltdowns/depressions
and another for global pandemics/biological warfare.
Hopefully we will only
experience minor disruptions and we should have already planned ahead by growing
as much of our own food as possible, reduced our mortgages, moved closer to
work, kept food stocks, stored heating fuel etc. Being prepared for something
to happen tomorrow will lessen people's reliance on the modern supermarket
and the expected doubling of prices, shortages etc. In the event of a pandemic,
then avoiding public places and other people is a very good idea, so food stocks
will help and being able to work from home is a major advantage.
My point is
that people need to plan for a number of scenarios, not just "let's retreat
and point the guns". I personally will be trying to help my community survive
any
disruption, for the sake of my children, loved ones and country. Previous generations
have faced bad times before and moved through them without losing their sense
of community. My grandfather used to tell me about life during the Depression,
where he used to hunt rabbits and other game to stretch the family budget and
how they used to reuse things to save money. You could buy things, but you
just didn’t have any money. But even during those hard times he said
there was always a strong community spirit and they always helped out others
who were less able to cope. We should all plan for being able to help others
by being self reliant.
Lastly if people want to relocate to an area that is
not targeted for nuclear war, has a modern economy, speaks English, and has
less than half a million people in an area the size of Ireland, then
move here to Tasmania. We even like Americans. - M. L.
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Letter Re: Simulation of Pandemic Influenza - Preparedness Implications
Jim,
I appreciate everything that you and your readers are doing to help change
the mindset of people around the world.
I was reviewing the May/June issue of a health care trade magazine that contained
a report on a simulation carried out in Philadelphia at the start of this year
dealing with pandemic influenza. While much of the discussion was relevant
only to health insurers, the scenario that served as the simulation is detailed
below. Readers can draw their own conclusions of the type of things that they
should prepare for.
The following is exerted from: Raymond, A.G. (2008). Pandemic Influenza. AHIP
Coverage. 49(3), 18:
A Simulation: Twelve "All-Too-Real" Weeks of Pandemic Influenza
After years of warnings a deadly flu grips the city [Philadelphia]. As the
simulation begins, 2,000 suspected cases of pandemic flu have been reported
in the Greater Philadelphia area, with at least 13 deaths. State and local
health officials are starting to carry out the CDC's recommendation to isolate
and treat with antiviral medications anyone with confirmed or suspected pandemic
influenza, and encourage people to reduce contacts that might spread the virus.
People who are infected can be contagious for a day or more before they develop
symptoms, which range from fever, cough, sore throat and muscle aches, to severe
respiratory diseases and other life-threatening complications.
Soon, doctors' offices and hospitals are inundated with the sick and "worried
well". Hospitals report ER waiting times as high as 15 hours with few
beds available for new admissions. Medical personnel are stretched to the limit,
and some are showing signs of infection.
Businesses are experiencing high rates of absenteeism, and schools are closing.
Domestic and international travel and shipments are slowed or cease entirely.
Groceries and pharmacies are quickly emptied of essential supplies and restaurants
and malls are empty.
The medical, economic and social consequences are devastating.
After nine weeks, the number of cases in the Philadelphia area has escalated
to more than 100,000, deaths are in the thousands, and the city's hospitals
and clinics are overwhelmed as they try to provide adequate care for huge numbers
of victims along with their usual patient population. Morgues, hospital mortuaries,
and funeral homes are challenged in their ability to care properly for the
soaring number of dead.
Public safety and sanitation are major concerns, critical medical and food
supplies are running low, and much of the economy has come to a standstill
because of high employee absenteeism and a lack of customers. Internet and
cell phone service is disrupted as home workers create system overload, and
service workers are unavailable to respond. Normal everyday activities end
as people avoid shopping, dining out, and social gatherings of all kinds.
The first wave is ending; attention turns to recovery and preparation for a
second.
At week 12, the number of new infections is subsiding, but a second wave of
pandemic flu is spreading overseas. In the USA, an estimated 40 million people
have been infected and nearly one million have died, including 25,000 in the
Greater Philadelphia area.
The economy is in free fall. As consumers limited their spending, business
have cut back production and laid-off workers, and small businesses are closing
altogether. Antivirals and antibiotics are scarce, vaccines for the pandemic
strains are still months away, and the medical system is still short on staff,
beds and supplies. Fear and isolation have taken a heavy toll on the public,
with increasing accounts of depression and other signs of stress. Can the city
begin to recover and also prepare for a second-wave pandemic?
For now, this is only a simulation. - Dave in Alabama.
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Letter Re: Triage in Emergency Mass Critical Care (EMCC) Event
Dear JWR:
I feel that there is a strong premonition in the article you flagged on Wednesday
(Who Should Doctors Let Die in a Pandemic?) This hit the Main Stream Media
(MSM) early this week and quickly fell off the news cycle. The topic is simply
too uncomfortable. The original
articles were published in the medical journal Chest (The
Journal of the American College of Chest Physicians and are very dry and
difficult reading even for a physician. This is unfortunate because it is a
salient topic
which needs to be vigorously publicly debated (instead of who got voted off – insert
various “reality TV” show). It has specific implications for those
of us reading your SurvivalBlog. Several recent postings in SurvivalBlog (specifically
two discussions initiated by questions
raised by DS in Wisconsin )
show this to be a paramount topic.
I would like to address some of these issues by means of an analogy to the
area I live and work. We have a typical, financially struggling, small (100
bed) non-profit hospital serving a population area of approximately 50,000.
Down the road is the “Medical Mecca” (actually more than one) with
total bed capacity in the thousands. Our small hospital has an 8-bed Intensive
Care Unit (ICU) which is always full, with the typical patient in one of the
various states of terminal disease processes. When a critical care patient
leaves the Operating Room (OR), there is the usual story of “Musical
Beds”, where a patient has to be transferred to “make room” in
the ICU. This usually involves transferring the least critical patient to the “Step
Down Unit” (SDU). ICU patient transfers to the “ Mecca ” typically
takes 24-48 hours because their beds are also constantly full. Our hospital
owns four ICU ventilators, and if the number of patients requiring ventilation
exceeds this, additional units have to be delivered from the “medical
supply house”, which also provides rental units to the “Medical
Mecca”. Due to financial constraints, there is no “surge capacity” in
the system. In the typical bureaucratic system, the “mirage” of
available space is accomplished by simply “redefining” a given
patient from “Intensive Care” to something less, either wholly
inside our hospital or by including the “Mecca” in the system (as
in a “larger” system). [JWR Adds: I briefly discussed
the chronic shortage of ventilators in my
static article on Asian Avian Influenza.
I agree wholeheartedly with your assessment
of the shortfalls in
medical delivery infrastructure!]
The issues addressed by the articles in Chest concerned Emergency
Mass Critical Care (EMCC) events, prototypically pandemic influenza. In such
a situation,
even the “mirage” of available space breaks down because you cannot “enlarge” the
system by including more “geographical” area since each additional
area is encompassed by the same problem. The currently circulating “bird
flu” H5N1 is a particularly nasty bug, more closely resembling the various “hemorrhagic
fevers” than typical influenza when infecting humans. The syndrome includes
pulmonary edema (fluid collecting in the lungs, i.e. drowning in own secretions),
disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) (internal bleeding) and multi-system
organ failure (kidney and/or heart failure, etc.). Treatment typically includes
intensive hemodynamic and ventilatory support until the body can clear the
infection and heal. Even in our relatively rural area, it would not be unreasonable
to expect to have tens, if not hundreds, of patients needing this level support
in order to survive. The “Mecca ” will see proportionately more
demand.
The recommendations of the authors of the Chest articles are well reasoned
and intelligent, but totally impractical in our financially strapped and egalitarian
healthcare system. These recommendations include providing for the ability
to surge to three times the ICU capacity and provide for 10 days of service
without resupply. Due to shortages of trained nurses, our ICU depends on locum
tenens (contract agency) nurses to staff the ICU and medical care is provided
by a single pulmonologist (physician specializing in lung diseases). It is
totally impractical from a staffing issue to provide 3x surge capacity. As
far as inventory, 10 days is an eternity. Where will the money come from to
stockpile these items and medications (our hospital only has about 30 days
of operating cash on hand)? Will the staff forego a paycheck in order for this
to occur? Additionally, the “medical supply house” typically only
has a couple of unissued ventilators at any given time, before having to “tap
into” their larger supply chain (i.e. maybe a dozen or so “extra” in
the entire State). Where do you expect these to be issued in such a crisis
(try not to be cynical, but I suspect it will be near the State capitol)?
The most difficult (albeit the most logical) recommendations concerns the rationing
of the scarce healthcare resources. They suggest that the effort should go
to those most likely to survive, instead of those likely to die (i.e. those
most likely to benefit from the therapy). This is described as making a medical
decision for the entire population, instead of an individual patient. The goal
is to maximize survival in the population (at the expense of individual survival).
The difficult question is: Who should get the resources and whom should be “redefined” into
the “expectant” (i.e. expected to die) category? Should the ventilator
go to the college student with severe pulmonary edema or the nursing home patient
with the stroke? Should the neonatal/pediatric ICU bed space go to the 20 week
premature infant or the previously healthy two year old? If only these decisions
would be this straightforward. Who is going to tell the family that grandmother
doesn’t meet criteria? Who is going to care for the other patients while
the situation is explained (repeatedly) to these families (typically hours
with each family)? Do you think that that family will quietly accept the decision
or will there be riots? Do you ever wonder why during a food riot, the first
thing destroyed is the bakery? Do you think healthcare providers will show
up for work at an armed camp with constant rioting or stay home and care for
their own family? Would you go to work in a similar situation?
As in most things health related, an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of
cure. With communicable diseases, isolation and personal hygiene are the most
important. These are issues which do not need to be described to the SurvivalBlog
family (look at the archives), but should be seriously discussed within your
own family/group. In regards to the questions raised concerning emergency medical
transport and personal/retreat medical stockpiling, it is an important consideration.
In such a crisis situation, transportation is likely to be futile, if not fatal.
While nobody should expect to have a personal ventilator in their medical kit,
a supply of IV fluids and electrolyte preparation should be standard for those
who know how to administer it. Antipyretics (fever reducers) and antispasmodics/antiemetics
(diarrhea and nausea medication) should also be standard fare as well as easily
digestible foods. A broad-spectrum antibiotic would also be warranted for bacterial
superinfection, although everyone should already know that antibiotics do not
treat viral infections. The data on antivirals (amantadine, rimantadine and
oseltamivir/Tamiflu) is inconclusive at best and contradictory at worst concerning
H5N1 [Asian Avian Influenza], but if they are available it may be prudent to
have some on hand.
It is unfortunate that the public discussion of this topic has died such an
untimely death. Perhaps a little more debate would spare a few hospitals from
the ultimate riots, but I am not enthusiastic, human nature being what it is.
In this era of “Hope and Change”, especially with regards to healthcare,
it will undoubtedly be continued deterioration. We will continue to spend the
majority of healthcare dollars in the last six months of life, instead of helping
the survival of those most likely to survive. In summary, logical evaluation
of such a crisis leads to an illogical result (riots and destruction of the
healthcare system). We will likely be left with taking care of ourselves and
our family. - NC Bluedog
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Letter Re: Being Prepared for an Avian Influenza Outbreak
Sir,
Please pass on a reminder to people to prepare themselves with a plan and supplies
to deal with for the inevitable event [of an Avian Influenza outbreak]. Begin by practicing impeccable agricultural
hygiene and discouraging any visitation of persons near their barn yards,
hen houses and migratory wildlife flocks of geese or ducks on or near their
ponds, open water sources or feed sources. This is best done with a couple
of good herding type dogs who don’t mind getting their feet wet in
the ponds or on the property watering holes. Our chickens are free range,
yet they are blocked from the access of the open water sources, and their
supple mental food and calcium sources are kept away from access of migrating
and indigenous species of birds. The dogs also help with poultry predatory
losses from fox, coons and hawks. - KBF
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From the SurvivalBlog Archives: Start With a "List of Lists"
Start your retreat stocking effort by first composing a List of Lists, then
draft prioritized lists for each subject, on separate sheets of paper. (Or
in a spreadsheet if you are a techno-nerd like me. Just be sure to print out
a hard copy for use when the power grid goes down!) It is important to tailor
your lists to suit your particular geography, climate, and population density
as well as your peculiar needs and likes/dislikes. Someone setting up a retreat
in a coastal area is likely to have a far different list than someone living
in the Rockies.
As I often mention in my lectures and radio interviews, a great way to create
truly commonsense preparedness lists is to take a three-day weekend TEOTWAWKI Weekend Experiment” with your family. When you come home from work on
Friday evening, turn off your main circuit breaker, turn off your gas main
(or propane tank), and shut your main water valve (or turn off your well pump.)
Spend that weekend in primitive conditions. Practice using only your storage
food, preparing it on a wood stove (or camping stove.)
A “TEOTWAWKI Weekend Experiment” will surprise you. Things that
you take for granted will suddenly become labor intensive. False assumptions
will be shattered. Your family will grow closer and more confident. Most importantly,
some of the most thorough lists that you will ever make will be those written
by candlelight.
Your List of Lists should include: (Sorry that this post
is in outline form, but it would take a full length book to discus all of
the following in great detail)
Water List
Food Storage List
Food Preparation List
Personal List
First Aid /Minor Surgery List
Nuke Defense List
Biological Warfare Defense List
Gardening List
Hygiene List/Sanitation List
Hunting/Fishing/Trapping List
Power/Lighting/Batteries List
Fuels List
Firefighting List
Tactical Living List
Security-General
Security-Firearms
Communications/Monitoring List
Tools List
Sundries List
Survival Bookshelf List
Barter and Charity List
JWR’s Specific Recommendations For Developing Your Lists:
Water List
House downspout conversion sheet metal work and barrels. (BTW, this is another
good reason to upgrade your retreat to a fireproof metal roof.)
Drawing water from open sources. Buy extra containers. Don’t buy big
barrels, since five gallon food grade buckets are the largest size that most
people can handle without back strain.
For transporting water if and when gas is too precious to waste, buy a couple
of heavy duty two wheel garden carts--convert the wheels to foam filled "no
flats" tires. (BTW, you will find lots of other uses for those carts around
your retreat, such as hauling hay, firewood, manure, fertilizer, et cetera.)
Treating water. Buy plain Clorox hypochlorite bleach. A little goes a long
way. Buy some extra half-gallon bottles for barter and charity. If you can
afford it, buy a “Big Berky” British Berkefeld ceramic water filter.
(Available from Ready
Made Resources and several other Internet vendors. Even if you have pure
spring water at your retreat, you never know where you may end up, and a good
filter could be a lifesaver.)
Food Storage List
See my post tomorrow which will be devoted to food storage. Also see the recent
letter from David in Israel on this subject.
Food Preparation List
Having more people under your roof will necessitate having an oversize skillet
and a huge stew pot. BTW, you will want to buy several huge kettles, because
odds are you will have to heat water on your wood stove for bathing, dish washing,
and clothes washing. You will also need even more kettles, barrels, and 5 or
6 gallon PVC buckets--for water hauling, rendering, soap making, and dying.
They will also make great barter or charity items. (To quote my mentor Dr.
Gary North: “Nails: buy a barrel of them. Barrels: Buy a barrel of them!”)
Don’t overlook skinning knives, gut-buckets, gambrels, and meat saws.
Personal List
(Make a separate personal list for each family member and individual expected
to arrive at your retreat.)
Spare glasses.
Prescription and nonprescription medications.
Birth control.
Keep dentistry up to date.
Any elective surgery that you've been postponing
Work off that gut.
Stay in shape.
Back strength and health—particularly important, given the heavy manual
tasks required for self-sufficiency.
Educate yourself on survival topics, and practice them. For example, even if
you don’t presently live at your retreat, you should plant a vegetable
garden every year. It is better to learn through experience and make mistakes
now, when the loss of crop is an annoyance rather than a crucial event.
“Comfort” items to help get through high stress times. (Books, games,
CDs, chocolates, etc.)
First Aid /Minor Surgery List
When tailoring this list, consider your neighborhood going for many months
without power, extensive use of open flames, and sentries standing picket
shifts exposed in the elements. Then consider axes, chainsaws and tractors
being wielded by newbies, and a greater likelihood of gunshot wounds. With
all of this, add the possibility of no access to doctors or high tech medical
diagnostic equipment. Put a strong emphasis on burn treatment first aid supplies.
Don’t overlook do-it-yourself dentistry! (Oil of cloves, temporary
filling kit, extraction tools, et cetera.) Buy a full minor surgery outfit
(inexpensive Pakistani stainless steel instruments), even if you don’t
know how to use them all yet. You may have to learn, or you will have the
opportunity to put them in the hands of someone experienced who needs them.)
This is going to be a big list!
Chem/Nuke Defense List
Dosimeter and rate meter, and charger, radiac meter (hand held Geiger counter),
rolls of sheet plastic (for isolating airflow to air filter inlets and for
covering window frames in the event that windows are broken due to blast effects),
duct tape, HEPA filters (ands spares) for your shelter. Potassium iodate (KI)
tablets to prevent thyroid damage.(See my recent post on that subject.) Outdoor
shower rig for just outside your shelter entrance.
Biological Warfare Defense List
Disinfectants
Hand Sanitizer
Sneeze masks
Colloidal silver generator and spare supplies (distilled water and .999 fine
silver rod.)
Natural antibiotics (Echinacea, Tea Tree oil, …)
Gardening List
One important item for your gardening list is the construction of a very tall
deer-proof and rabbit-proof fence. Under current circumstances, a raid by deer
on your garden is probably just an inconvenience. After the balloon goes up,
it could mean the difference between eating well, and starvation.
Top Soil/Amendments/Fertilizers.
Tools+ spares for barter/charity
Long-term storage non hybrid (open pollinated) seed. (Non-hybrid “heirloom” seed
assortments tailors to different climate zones are available from The
Ark Institute
Herbs: Get started with medicinal herbs such as aloe vera (for burns), echinacea
(purple cone flower), valerian, et cetera.
Hygiene/Sanitation List
Sacks of powdered lime for the outhouse. Buy plenty!
TP in quantity (Stores well if kept dry and away from vermin and it is lightweight,
but it is very bulky. This is a good item to store in the attic. See my novel
about stocking up on used phone books for use as TP.
Soap in quantity (hand soap, dish soap, laundry soap, cleansers, etc.)
Bottled lye for soap making.
Ladies’ supplies.
Toothpaste (or powder).
Floss.
Fluoride rinse. (Unless you have health objections to the use of fluoride.)
Sunscreen.
Livestock List:
Hoof rasp, hoof nippers, hoof pick, horse brushes, hand sheep shears, styptic,
carding combs, goat milking stand, teat dip, udder wash, Bag Balm, elastrator
and bands, SWOT fly repellent, nail clippers (various sizes), Copper-tox, leads,
leashes, collars, halters, hay hooks, hay fork, manure shovel, feed buckets,
bulk grain and C-O-B sweet feed (store in galvanized trash cans with tight
fitting lids to keep the mice out), various tack and saddles, tack repair tools,
et cetera. If your region has selenium deficient soil (ask your local Agricultural
extension office) then be sure to get selenium-fortified salt blocks rather
than plain white salt blocks--at least for those that you are going to set
aside strictly for your livestock.
Hunting/Fishing/Trapping List
“Buckshot” Bruce Hemming has produced an excellent series of videos
on trapping and making improvised traps. (He also sells traps and scents at very
reasonable prices.)
Night vision gear, spares, maintenance, and battery charging
Salt. Post-TEOTWAWKI, don’t “go hunting.” That would be a
waste of effort. Have the game come to you. Buy 20 or more salt blocks. They
will also make very valuable barter items.
Sell your fly fishing gear (all but perhaps a few flies) and buy practical
spin casting equipment.
Extra tackle may be useful for barter, but probably only in a very long term
Crunch.
Buy some frog gigs if you have bullfrogs in your area. Buy some crawfish traps
if you have crawfish in your area.
Learn how to rig trot lines and make fish traps for non-labor intensive fishing WTSHTF.
Power/Lighting/Batteries List
One proviso: In the event of a “grid
down” situation, if you are the only family in the area with power,
it could turn your house into a “come loot me” beacon at night.
At the same time, your house lighting will ruin the night vision of your LP/OP pickets.
Make plans and buy materials in advance for making blackout screens or fully
opaque curtains for your windows.
When possible, buy nickel metal hydride batteries. (Unlike the older nickel
cadmium technology, these have no adverse charge level “memory” effect.)
If your home has propane appliances, get a “tri-fuel” generator--with
a carburetor that is selectable between gasoline, propane, and natural gas.
If you heat your home with home heating oil, then get a diesel-burning generator.
(And plan on getting at least one diesel burning pickup and/or tractor). In
a pinch, you can run your diesel generator and diesel vehicles on home heating
oil.
Kerosene lamps; plenty of extra wicks, mantles, and chimneys. (These will also
make great barter items.)
Greater detail on do-it-yourself power will be included in my forthcoming blog
posts.
Fuels List
Buy the biggest propane, home heating oil, gas, or diesel tanks that your local
ordinances permit and that you can afford. Always keep them at least two-thirds
full. For privacy concerns, ballistic impact concerns, and fire concerns,
underground tanks are best if you local water table allows it. In any case,
do not buy an aboveground fuel tank that would visible from any public road
or navigable waterway. Buy plenty of extra fuel for barter. Don’t overlook
buying plenty of kerosene. (For barter, you will want some in one or two
gallon cans.) Stock up on firewood or coal. (See my previous blog posts.)
Get the best quality chainsaw you can afford. I prefer Stihls and Husqavarnas.
If you can afford it, buy two of the same model. Buy extra chains, critical
spare parts, and plenty of two-cycle oil. (Two-cycle oil will be great for
barter!) Get a pair of Kevlar chainsaw safety chaps. They are expensive but
they might save yourself a trip to the emergency room. Always wear gloves,
goggles, and ear-muffs. Wear a logger’s helmet when felling. Have someone
who is well experienced teach you how to re-sharpen chains. BTW, don’t
cut up your wood into rounds near any rocks or you will destroy a chain in
a hurry.
Firefighting List
Now that you have all of those flammables on hand (see the previous list) and
the prospect of looters shooting tracer ammo or throwing Molotov cocktails
at your house, think in terms of fire fighting from start to finish without
the aid of a fire department. Even without looters to consider, you should
be ready for uncontrolled brush or residential fires, as well as the greater
fire risk associated with greenhorns who have just arrived at your retreat
working with wood stoves and kerosene lamps!
Upgrade your retreat with a fireproof metal roof.
2” water line from your gravity-fed storage tank (to provide large water
volume for firefighting)
Fire fighting rig with an adjustable stream/mist head.
Smoke and CO detectors.
Tactical Living List
Adjust your wardrobe buying toward sturdy earth-tone clothing. (Frequent your
local thrift store and buy extras for retreat newcomers, charity, and barter.)
Dyes. Stock up on some boxes of green and brown cloth dye. Buy some extra for
barter. With dye, you can turn most light colored clothes into semi-tactical
clothing on short notice.
Two-inch wide burlap strip material in green and brown. This burlap is available
in large spools from Gun Parts Corp. Even if you don’t have time now,
stock up so that you can make camouflage ghillie
suits post-TEOTWAWKI.
Save those wine corks! (Burned cork makes quick and cheap face camouflage.)
Cold weather and foul weather gear—buy plenty, since you will be doing
more outdoor chores, hunting, and standing guard duty.
Don’t overlook ponchos and gaiters.
Mosquito repellent.
Synthetic double-bag (modular) sleeping bags for each person at the retreat,
plus a couple of spares. The Wiggy’s
brand Flexible Temperature Range Sleep System (FTRSS)
made by Wiggy's of Grand Junction, Colorado is highly recommended.
Night vision gear + IR floodlights for your retreat house
Subdued flashlights and penlights.
Noise, light, and litter discipline. (More on this in future posts--or perhaps
a reader would like to send a brief article on this subject)
Security-General: Locks, intrusion detection/alarm systems, exterior obstacles
(fences, gates, 5/8” diameter (or larger) locking road cables, rosebush
plantings, “decorative” ponds (moats), ballistic protection (personal
and residential), anti-vehicular ditches/berms, anti-vehicular concrete “planter
boxes”, razor wire, etc.)
Starlight electronic light amplification scopes are critical tools for retreat
security.
A Starlight scope (or goggles, or a monocular) literally amplifies low ambient
light by up to 100,000 times, turning nighttime darkness into daylight--albeit
a green and fuzzy view. Starlight light amplification technology was first
developed during the Vietnam War. Late issue Third Generation (also called
or “Third Gen” or “Gen 3”) starlight scopes can cost
up to $3,500 each. Rebuilt first gen (early 1970s technology scopes can often
be had for as little as $500. Russian-made monoculars (with lousy optics) can
be had for under $100. One Russian model that uses a piezoelectric generator
instead of batteries is the best of this low-cost breed. These are best used
as backups (in case your expensive American made scopes fail. They should not
be purchased for use as your primary night vision devices unless you are on
a very restrictive budget. (They are better than nothing.) Buy the best starlight
scopes, goggles, and monoculars you can afford. They may be life-savers! If
you can afford to buy only one, make it a weapon sight such as an AN/PVS-4,
with a Gen 2 (or better) tube. Make sure to specify that that the tube is new
or “low hours”, has a high “line pair” count, and minimal
scintillation. It is important to buy your Starlight gear from a reputable
dealer. The market is crowded with rip-off artists and scammers. One dealer
that I trust, is Al Glanze (spoken “Glan-zee”) who runs STANO
Components, Inc. in Silver City, Nevada. Note: In a subsequent
blog posts I will discuss the relationship and implications to IR illuminators
and tritium sights.
Range cards and sector sketches.
If you live in the boonies, piece together nine of the USGS 15-minute maps,
with your retreat property on the center map. Mount that map on an oversize
map board. Draw in the property lines and owner names of all of your surrounding
neighbor’s parcels (in pencil) in at least a five mile radius. (Get boundary
line and current owner name info from your County Recorder’s office.)
Study and memorize both the terrain and the neighbors’ names. Make a
phone number/e-mail list that corresponds to all of the names marked on the
map, plus city and county office contact numbers for quick reference and tack
it up right next to the map board. Cover the whole map sheet with a sheet of
heavy-duty acetate, so you can mark it up just like a military commander’s
map board. (This may sound a bit “over the top”, but remember,
you are planning for the worst case. It will also help you get to know your
neighbors: When you are introduced by name to one of them when in town, you
will be able to say, “Oh, don’t you live about two miles up the
road between the Jones place and the Smith’s ranch?” They will
be impressed, and you will seem like an instant “old timer.”
Security-Firearms List
Guns, ammunition, web gear, eye and ear protection, cleaning equipment,
carrying cases, scopes, magazines, spare parts, gunsmithing tools, targets
and target
frames, et cetera. Each rifle and pistol should have at least six top quality
(original military contract or original manufacturer) full capacity spare magazines.
Note: Considerable detail on firearms and optics selection, training, use,
and logistic support are covered in the SurvivalBlog archives and FAQs.
Communications/Monitoring List
When selecting radios buy only models that will run on 12 volt DC power or
rechargeable nickel metal hydride battery packs (that can be recharged from
your retreat’s 12 VDC power system without having to use an inverter.)
As a secondary purchasing goal, buy spare radios of each type if you can afford
them. Keep your spares in sealed metal boxes to protect them from EMP.
If you live in a far inland region, I recommend buying two or more 12 VDC marine
band radios. These frequencies will probably not be monitored in your region,
leaving you an essentially private band to use. (But never assume that any
two-way radio communications are secure!)
Note: More detail on survival communications gear selection, training, use,
security/cryptography measures, antennas, EMP protection, and logistical support
will be covered in forthcoming blog posts.
Tools List
Gardening tools.
Auto mechanics tools.
Welding.
Bolt cutters--the indispensable “universal key.”
Woodworking tools.
Gunsmithing tools.
Emphasis on hand powered tools.
Hand or treadle powered grinding wheel.
Don’t forget to buy plenty of extra work gloves (in earth tone colors).
Sundries List:
Systematically list the things that you use on a regular basis, or that you
might need if the local hardware store were to ever disappear: wire of various
gauges, duct tape, reinforced strapping tape, chain, nails, nuts and bolts,
weather stripping, abrasives, twine, white glue, cyanoacrylate glue, et cetera.
Book/Reference List
You should probably have nearly every book on my Bookshelf
page. For some, you will want to have two or three copies, such as Carla
Emery’s "Encyclopedia of Country Living". This is because these books
are so valuable and indispensable that you won’t want to risk lending
out your only copy.
Barter and Charity List
For your barter list, acquire primarily items that are durable, non-perishable,
and either in small packages or that are easily divisible. Concentrate on
the items that other people are likely to overlook or have in short supply.
Some of my favorites are ammunition. [The late] Jeff Cooper referred to it
as “ballistic
wampum.” WTSHTF, ammo will be worth nearly its weight in silver.
Store all of your ammo in military surplus ammo cans (with seals that are
still soft) and it will store for decades. Stick to common calibers, get
plenty of .22 LR (most
high velocity hollow points) plus at least ten boxes of the local favorite
deer hunting cartridge, even if you don’t own
a rifle chambered for this cartridge. (Ask your local sporting goods shop
about their top selling chamberings). Also buy at least ten boxes of the
local police department’s standard pistol cartridge, again even if
you don’t own a pistol chambered for this cartridge.
Ladies supplies.
Salt (Buy lots of cattle blocks and 1 pound canisters of iodized table salt.)
(Stores indefinitely if kept dry.)
Two cycle engine oil (for chain saw gas mixing. Gas may still be available
after a collapse, but two-cycle oil will probably be like liquid gold!)
Gas stabilizer.
Diesel antibacterial additive.
50-pound sacks of lime (for outhouses).
1 oz. bottles of military rifle bore cleaner and Break Free (or similar) lubricant.
Waterproof dufflebags in earth tone colors (whitewater rafting "dry bags").
Thermal socks.
Semi-waterproof matches (from military rations.)
Military web gear (lots of folks will suddenly need pistol belts, holsters,
magazine pouches, et cetera.)
Pre-1965 silver dimes.
1-gallon cans of kerosene.
Rolls of olive drab parachute cord.
Rolls of olive-drab duct tape.
Spools of monofilament fishing line.
Rolls of 10 mil "Visqueen", sheet plastic (for replacing windows,
isolating airspaces for nuke scenarios, etc.)
I also respect the opinion of one gentleman with whom I've corresponded, who
recommended the following:
Strike anywhere matches. (Dip the heads in paraffin to make them waterproof.)
Playing cards.
Cooking spices. (Do a web search for reasonably priced bulk spices.)
Rope & string.
Sewing supplies.
Candle wax and wicking.
Lastly, any supplies necessary for operating a home-based business. Some that
you might consider are: leather crafting, small appliance repair, gun repair,
locksmithing, et cetera. Every family should have at least one home-based business
(preferably two!) that they can depend on in the event of an economic collapse.
Stock up on additional items to dispense to refugees as charity.
Note: See the Barter Faire chapter in my novel "Patriots" for
lengthy lists of potential barter items.
« Odds 'n Sods: |Main| Note from JWR: »
Prepare or Die, by J. Britely
Throughout my life I have been
caught unprepared several times and while nothing seriously bad happened, it
easily could have. I have been
lost hiking. My car has broken
down in very bad
neighborhoods - twice. I have
been close enough to riots
that I feared they would spread to my neighborhood, been in earthquakes, been
too close to wildfires, been stuck in a blizzard,
and have been without power and water for several days after a hurricane. I managed to get myself out of
each situation, I thanked God, and tried to learn from my mistakes. I could have avoided these situations
or made them much less unsafe and worrisome if I had been more aware and
prepared. I have also tried to
learn from the mistakes of others
so as to not learn everything the hard way. One group I assisted was a two hour drive into the
mountains, out of gas, wearing tee shirts, and had empty water bottles (at
least they kept them) (I have made each of those mistakes but not all at the
same time).
I aspire to be more prepared the
next time. My preparedness
includes many different aspects.
In my opinion, the most important thing I have done is to learn as much
as possible about what to expect and how to deal with those situations. The other important thing that gives me
some piece of mind is that I carry
and stock away water, food, ammo, books, and other tools and equipment that
should help me survive a bad situation.
Be prepared!
The other inspiration for my
preparations is my family. Seeing
my family suffer from lack of water or food would be very hard for me,
especially if some easy and cheap preparations could have made a big
difference. Recently, a few
friends and family have asked me about my preparations and how they might
prepare. I didn't have a good
short answer because I have spent years learning and stocking away. I thought of myself as more of a
student than a teacher in this area, but now I think I do know enough to give
some basic advice and refer them to good sources for more. Hopefully, they (and you) can learn
from my mistakes without having to waste time, energy and money on things that
don't work. Of course, I haven't
been through every situation or disaster but I have made it through a few tough
spots without losing my head. My
advice is based upon what I know to work and also what sounds like it would
work with the minimum fuss. I
always prefer the cheap, easy, home-made solution, but
sometimes it is worth the cost to get a quality item that is just too hard to
improvise or where the manufactured solution is much better (such as a
knife). Keep it simple stupid
(KISS) when you can. With
persistence you can get a lot done $20 at a time.
The purpose of this document is
to give an overview of preparedness and the first steps to take. I focus more on the why than the what
so that you can tailor your preparedness to your own situation and budget. I will also cite the best sources I
have found for more information.
There is a lot of information out there in books, classes, web sites,
and forums. Most of it is good but it is also really repetitious and
overwhelming. This document is
only about 15 pages printed out (you are printing important information (not
necessarily this) aren't you - since in an emergency you may not have power and
need to take the information with you).
I try to keep my important preparedness documents in an expandable file
folder with a tie inside a plastic crate.
What are you preparing for?
No one really knows what will be
the next survival situation they will face or how it will play out (will it get
worse before it gets better?). It
could be getting lost hiking, the car getting two flats in the middle of the
desert, a hurricane, a home invasion, an earthquake, or a terrorist
attack. You must assess your own
situation and determine what you need to prepare for. Of course some preparations will be useful in many
situations including everyday life, and these are the best type.
In order to get an idea of what
to prepare for, look at the types of situations that you or people similar to
you have been through. Also,
assess where you live or spend a lot of time such as work and vacation. We need to learn from the past but
without fighting the last war.
I like hiking and being
outdoors, so for me learning how
not to get lost and how to stay alive in the outdoors are high
priorities. These skills may also
come in handy if I need to walk to safety during a terrorist attack because all
of the roads and public transportation are closed. Living in your house without power or water isn't too
different from camping
except for the nice roof over your head and all of your stuff. I have also taken a first
aid class. It is pretty
limited in coverage but still useful in a variety of situations.
To assess the likely dangers to
where I live and work I used several sources including FEMA (free guide), DHS, Disaster Center, Emergency
Essentials, Two
Tigers and CBS. Also, find your local emergency
response office. But don't
rely on the government too much for planning or for help. As we relearned with the Katrina
response, their information and advice is far from perfect. And FEMA has always said it will take
72 hours to respond. So the way
I
look at it, during Katrina, FEMA (and
local governments) failed to live up to
its own low expectations. But even
if FEMA had been able to provide more food and water, you would still be much
better off taking care of yourself.
Do you really want to be told what possessions you can hold, when to
eat, when to sleep, and live in close quarters with thousands of
strangers? Sounds like prison to
me.
It's
A Disaster is a good book that will get you started on a plan for most
disasters. Some of their plans are
a little passive for me (don't take any risks and follow all FEMA directions)
and their kits lack some important things like knives. Still, it is a very good book and a
great start. Family and friends
should be included in your planning and preparations as much as they want to
be, but be careful about telling people who you do not trust or know well. You do not want to become a target in a
crisis.
I
think one of the best sources for thinking about what you are preparing for
and what does and doesn't work is news and
first hand accounts. These are some of the best ones I have
found. A few of them seem kind of
glib and bravado but the advice seems sound.
True Stories of Survival
Hurricane Katrina: http://www.frfrogspad.com/disastr.htm
Argentina thread 1: http://www.clairewolfe.com/wolfesblog/arg.html
Argentina thread 2 (some
swearing): http://www.survivalmonkey.com/forum/showthread.php?t=2715
Airplane crash: http://www.equipped.com/waldock698.htm
Ground Zero: http://www.equipped.org/groundzero.htm
Karen Hood's Survival Journal (a week in the wilderness) http://www.survival.com/karen1.htm
Sailing to Hawaii http://www.equipped.com/0698rescue.htm
Tsunami http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/c1187/
Alaska http://www.geocities.com/Yosemite/Rapids/8017/index2.html
A list of stories
Priorities
The survival Rule of Threes:
- It takes about three seconds to die without thinking
- It takes about three minutes to die without air
- It
takes about three hours to die without shelter
- It
takes about three days to die without water
- It
takes about three weeks to die without food
- It
takes about three months to die without hope
- Try to
have at least three ways of preventing each
of the above (a backup to your backup).
So the priorities are thinking,
air, shelter, water, food, and hope.
These are rules of thumb and approximations. Also, you will likely start feeling really bad before you
die so you need to be proactive in addressing these needs.
Thinking
Basically, don't panic
and do
something stupid. This is easier
said than done, but you can build your thinking skill and confidence by playing
“what if” games. After reading about the risks to your area and the survival
stories above, think about what kinds of things could go wrong and how you
would deal with them. The more
detail the better. What would you
do if a cat 5 hurricane was projected to hit your house? Where would you go? What would you take? Would it all fit in your car? Do you have enough gas to get there if
the gas stations are closed? What
if you don't have time to leave? What room in your house is safest (can you
reinforce it easily)?
If you are facing a serious
situation but no immediate threat, take the time to consider your options
before rushing into a course of action.
Take an inventory of what you have on hand and what is around you. Think of how each item could help solve
one or more of your priorities.
Thinking about these things may
be scary but it will be less scary when it actually happens if you have thought
it through. Focus on what you can
do to improve things and not on what you cannot change. Thinking can also be
more long term as in learning and planning. I suggest you read some of the sources below and then come
up with a plan for several types of situations that you are likely to
face. But don't delay, you can take
some first steps outlined below, such as storing water, right now. You can then read more, take classes
and collect useful items.
Preparing is a process not a one time event.
Air
Having breathable air is not
something you usually have to worry about, but it is an immediate priority if
you do. First aide can help with
choking and bleeding (which causes the body to not get needed oxygen). Hundreds
of people die from carbon dioxide and carbon monoxide poisoning
every year because of gas leaks and cooking
or heating indoors. Being at
altitude can also make it harder to breath. Finally, a terrorist attack could put dust, chemical,
biological, or nuclear contamination in the air or force you into a shelter
that needs ventilation. Be aware
of these dangers and have appropriate detectors if possible (smoke, carbon
monoxide, etc.). A wet cloth or
hand wipe (carry on airplane) to breathe through can help for dust or smoke.
Shelter
Shelter is mainly about staying
dry and the right temperature, but you also want to avoid sunburn, bugs,
animals and other dangers. Your
house is your usual primary shelter but it could become damaged or you may have
to evacuate. You should have
emergency repair items on hand such as tarps, lumber, shovels, nails, plastic
sheeting, crowbars, and a saw.
Your clothes are your first and
most important layer of shelter outdoors.
Clothes protect you from heat, cold and abrasions. In general silk, wool, and synthetic
materials are better than cotton especially to keep you warm in cold wet
weather. I find cotton more comfortable especially in hot weather, so I
compromise and wear a cotton shirt and shorts, but carry a better shirt, pants
and socks
in my bag, as well as additional layers and a change of underwear. This makes my pack a little heavier,
but I have been cold and wet in the wilds and that is miserable. For me, a hat and sunglasses are
indispensable. I try to always
carry at least a light water resistant jacket or poncho (with a garbage bag as
a backup). For me, boots are the
only sensible walking shoes. Find
some that are rugged and comfortable.
Have extra laces and a backup pair.
You can carry a tent, a tarp or garbage
bag for resting and sleeping.
A tarp can make a simple shelter or
an elaborate one. Rope, twine and tape are also
useful. You can carry some type of
staff
or tent
poles or make them with an ax or saw.
Mosquito netting is necessary in some places.
You should have many ways to
start a fire since most are cheap and compact. At least have a lighter, matches,
and flint. You can also build a firebed to sleep in if you have
inadequate shelter from the cold.
Water
This is a crucial area that
can be helped a lot with very cheap and easy actions before The Schumer
Hits The
Fan (TSHTF). This is probably the
thing
you can do with the highest payoff for amount of effort. The only problem with water is that it
is heavy and can take up a lot of room.
If you have storage room and are staying home this isn't a problem but
if you are on the move it can become a driving factor in your progress. Long term solutions are also difficult
if your primary water source (city water or well) goes out and you are not near
a river or lake.
Used plastic soda bottles and
orange juice jugs with screw tops make very convenient water storage containers. Just rinse them a few times with hot
water. Old liquor bottles and wine box bladders work well too. I also have several canteens and rugged
5
gallon containers with taps.
The five gallon containers weigh about 40 pounds each and are about as
big as can be easily moved (larger drums can go in your basement or garage or
under a rain spout). A few collapsible
containers might also be useful because they can be stored and carried
empty. Tap water can last for
years without going bad if kept in a cool dark place. But you should check water that has been stored for clarity
and odors. If in doubt, treat it
with one of the methods below. You
can also freeze the plastic soda or orange juice containers (these do crack sometimes
when freezing) and use them in a cooler to keep food cold if the power goes out
before drinking it. If you know
a
disaster is coming fill up any container you can including the coffee maker,
crystal vase, bucket, bathtub, sink, and kiddy pool (some of these could be
spilled or contaminated but hopefully some will make it).
Most sources recommend about a
gallon per person per day. People
consume about 2 quarts in cool low activity environments but much more if hot
or active. You should have at
least 2 weeks worth per person in your primary residence (but why not have
months worth if you have the room).
If you are traveling by car, three days worth per person is minimum
(more for bathing), and if you are walking take as much as you reasonably can
carry but at least one days worth (several small bottles are better for
diversification if one leaks and also to let you know to start looking for more
water before you are on your last bottle). I also store extra water for washing and bathing. Here the container doesn't matter quite
as much. I use old liquid
detergent jugs. You should also
have at least two methods of sterilizing water.
The first step in sterilizing
water is to get the water as clear as possible. If it is cloudy, strain it with coffee filters, a clean
cloth, or sand. Or you can let it
settle and pour off the more clear water.
The primary and most reliable
method of sterilizing water is boiling.
You actually do not need to boil the water just heat it past 145 degrees for long enough. But
if you don't do it right you can get sick. So to be safe, boil it for 5 minutes if you can. If you are
walking, a metal cup (enamel or stainless) or a converted tin can is easier to
boil than a full pot. You can
carry a backpacking
stove or a Kelly Kettle. You can
use solar power to sterilize
water (in a soda
bottle) if no cooking is possible.
Other stoves are suggested below under food.
To sterilize water
with bleach use 2 drops of plain unscented
bleach per quart of water (or 8 drops per gallon or 1⁄4 tsp per 2 gallons). If you don't have a dropper you can wet
a paper towel and then drip it (wear gloves). Let the water sit for 20 minutes and then smell it. If it smells like chorine then its good
to go. If it doesn't, repeat with
the same amount of bleach. If that
doesn't work try to find other water.
(Really bad water or salt water requires a still.) Bleach is cheap but does not last forever - rotate. Dry Calcium Hypochlorite {sold as "pool
shock" bleach) stores
much
better
than liquid bleach but requires an
additional step of mixing a solution. (It provides a very inexpensive long
term
solution
to
water treatment).
There are also Potable
Aqua iodine tablets that are more
compact for sterilizing water. You
can also use Tincture of
Iodine. Iodine and chlorine
are poisons so be very careful (kill the
bacteria not yourself. [Avoid ingesting chlorine or iodine crystals!])
Any of the chemical treatments
can make the water taste funny.
You can use drink mixes to make it taste better. I'm not sure if sports drinks are
really better, but Gatorade seems more thirst quenching to me than water. The powder form is more convenient and
cheaper. You can also make your own sports drink
(1/4 tsp nu salt (potassium chloride),
1⁄4
tsp
salt,
3-6 tbsp sugar (to taste), juice of 1 lemon (or orange), and optional flavoring
(Kool-Aid) per gallon of water) or switchel.
Of course you can spend money for water if you
want to. You can buy prepackaged water or expensive
filters. There are backpacking
filters but I have found these to be temperamental. A water
bottle with a filter would be a good backup or a straw.
You can also go the more expensive route with a good gravity fed filter like
this: http://www.doultonfilters.com/gravity.html. This is a great looking solar still but doesn't appear
to be for sale right now.
If you are a homebrewer (or like beer), you can add some
dry malt extract, hops, and dry yeast to your
stash. Beer is boiled as part of
the brewing process. Then the
alcohol and hops act as a natural preservative. For the long term you can get some sproutable barley, grow some hops, and culture yeast. If you or someone with you doesn't
handle alcohol well, skip this.
Food
Providing food can be as
easy or
complicated as you want. The
easiest thing to do is simply buy
more of any food you normally buy that stores well. By store well, I mean does not
spoil. Foods like fresh milk, meat
and bread do not store well. Other
foods like rice, dried beans and pasta all store well and are cheap. They eventually lose some of their
nutrition but this is gradual and will not make you sick from eating “expired”
food if you forget to rotate. I
do
not list exact rotation schedules because every source is different. Some sources say grains only last one
year but most sources say 10 plus years and other credible sources say hundreds
or thousands
of years. It all depends upon how
it is packed and where it is stored which is discussed below (vacuum packed,
cool and dry are best) Canned meats, fruits and vegetables store okay and are
more expensive.
How much food you want to have
on hand depends on what type of situation you expect and how much you want to
spend. Buying a month' worth of rice, beans,
salt, and pasta will not cost much (and
is a good start). You will be a
lot happier if you add:
- canned or dried
meat (Costco and BJs have multipaks of Spam, ham, tuna and chicken for
under $10)
- canned or dried fruits and nuts
- canned or dried vegetables
- dried potatoes
- canned or dried sauces (for
pasta, chili, etc.)
- soup mixes (bean soups are
cheap) and bullion
- dried onions
- parmesan cheese
- cooking oil
- ramen noodles
- peanut butter
- mayo
- vinegar
- sugar and honey
- powdered milk
- bread crumbs, stuffing, oatmeal,
cereal
- flour, pancake mix, biscuit mix
- baking soda
- cocoa, instant coffee, tea,
drink mixes, juice mixes (cranberry)
- lemon juice
- dry yeast
- spices
Some of these can be eaten
without cooking or water if you have to.
Costco is great for the rice, canned goods, bullion, yeast (2 pound
box), cooking oil and spices. Don't forget a can opener and other
utensils. Of course you can do the
drying (wood
or solar) and canning yourself
for better quality and lower cost.
The oil, flour, baking soda and yeast (refrigerate the yeast if
possible) do not store well and have to be rotated more frequently than the
rice, beans and pasta. You will
be
healthier if you add some multivitamins. There are also luxury items like
Powerbars, powdered eggs, powdered cheese, powdered butter, food tabs, and meals
ready to eat (MREs).
To decide how much you need, you
can simply scale up recipes
and meals (print some simple recipes that use your stored food). How much rice and beans would you eat
at a meal or in a day if that was all you ate? A lot probably (make a meal as a trial). Now multiply that by the number of
people and the number of days and you have a ball park of how much to
store. The problem is that you
could end up feeding more people than your immediate family. Who else would you not turn away?
(Anyone you wouldn't want to live with normally is not someone you want to be
stuck with in a crisis. That said
there is some family I wouldn't turn away even if they deserve it). Start with the cheap stuff (rice,
beans, pasta, salt) and then slowly keeping adding and rotating the other food
until you have at least one months worth.
Do an inventory at least twice a year.
Store everything in
airtight/waterproof containers inside a tough container in a cool, dry, dark
place. Some things come packed
pretty well and can just go in a plastic
bucket or crate (cans can
be dipped in wax). Other items
should be vacuum
packed in small bags or large mylar bags with oxygen absorbers and
then put in the plastic bucket with a lid or crate (with a solid latching
lid). If you don't have shelves,
you can make shelves out of the buckets or crates and 1”x12” lumber. Put 2”x4”'s under the bottom shelf to
keep it off the floor.
For years
worth of food instead of months worth of food we need to move to grain and grain grinders. The Church of Latter Day
Saints are the experts
here. They also have storehouses that will sell
to the public if you are polite.
Of course you can buy online
but the shipping will be as much or more than the food. I went cheap and was able to get about
six months worth of food for one person for $100. I stuck to grains (400 lbs/year), beans (40 lbs/year), soup
mix (20 lbs/year), and milk (16 lbs/year) (I already had sugar (60
pounds/year), salt (10 lbs/year), oil (5 gallons/year), baking soda and yeast). I borrowed some of their equipment to
pack some of the food, the rest I packed at home in the mylar bags and buckets
described above. The milk is a
sticky powder and very messy (think of spilling flour and multiply by 100),
repack it outside if possible. I
also bought a hand operated
grain grinder to make flour from the wheat. Then I can make bread
(scale this recipe up to one loaf per day for a year as a cross check for a
year's supply). This would be a
pretty miserable diet but I think it would keep me alive and healthy if I had
enough vitamins. Because of the
sack size I have more of some things than others so towards the end I may be
eating paste. I hope to upgrade later. For infants you need more milk, oil,
sugar, and vitamins from which you can make an emergency formula (breast
feeding is better, then you give the extra
food to the mother).
For even longer food solutions
you need to farm. Supplementing
your food with a garden
or sprouting would also make
things last longer and provide some healthy variety. Its best to have some non-hybrid seeds on
hand or save
seeds from your garden.
Serious (expensive) seed packages are here. Have some fertilizer and pesticides on
hand but in the long run organic
is the way to go.
For cooking you can use a wood
burning stove, barbeque, or camp
stove in the short run (have some extra fuel on hand). The Petromax
lantern is pricey but well made and also has a stove attachment. If you don't have one of these or run
out of fuel you can build one: a coffee can
stove, a bucket stove
(avoid galvanized metal),
a alcohol stove, a collapsible stove, a tin can stove (simple
version), solar
oven (portable version),
or a clay
stove (print directions for making at least one of these). This is also a good commercial stove for those with cash
to burn. These are much more
efficient than an open fire. You
need a good pot or dutch oven for
boiling water and cooking. For
more portable food you can go with MREs, make your own
or stock what ever you would normally backpack with.
Hope
Hope is different for
everyone. It can be safety,
comfort, companionship, or normalcy.
For me it is mainly hope that there is light at the end of the
tunnel. I can work hard and
persevere if I know eventually things will get better. This means long term planning. So I want to have what I need in the
short term but also have some hope for the long term (so I have gardening tools
and seeds in addition to rice and spam).
You also want comfort items such as a book, Bible, game, coloring book,
pictures, beer, tea, or warm
shower. Some of these can be
dual purpose such as a book about hiking or gardening, survival playing cards,
or a novel about survival and perseverance.
Equipment
There are lots of things you can get, but you can also
just organize what you have already. The number of lists
seems endless and what you need depends upon the situation, your skills, and
your budget. Here is what is wrong with
the DHS kit I have already
mentioned several items above and list some others here but being comprehensive
would take a lot of space (read the links and references for more). Here are some basics.
All types of camping equipment
and tools come in handy but can be
expensive (shipping can be expensive too so you may want to make your own, try your
local yard sales, craigslist,
sporting goods or hardware store first).
You may want a small tent to carry and a larger tent to put in the car. Sleeping
pads are as much for insulation as for comfort (learned the hard way—you
don't want to be in the cold without some insulation between you and the
ground). A hammock
can be multipurpose. You can
try your local hardware store for lanterns or Lehman's
(they also have candle making supplies).
I suggest four knives for anyone
responsible enough to have one (in general you get what you pay for, but start
cheap and upgrade later): a folding
lock blade knife (buck and gerber are both good reasonably priced brands), a
Swiss army knife (with saw blade) or leatherman type knife
(pliers are handy), a
solid full tang knife, and a machete or short sword for brush. A kitchen knife can work until you get
any of these. A hatchet would also
be useful. Keep them sharp.
You need several maps (local,
state (small scale and large scale), neighboring states, topographic and road)
and a compass. A GPS
is optional but very handy. There
are usually welcome centers along interstates and in some cities that hand out
free maps. The USGS is a good source for reasonably
priced maps but sometimes it is a bit hard to find what you are looking
for. They have a catalog
for each state that really helps. They are also very friendly by phone but
still prefer if you order online.
You should have at least one non
portable (plug in) phone that can be used with the power out. Medicine, diapers and feminine products
will be hard to get. A generator
is great but can be expensive and you must have enough fuel (I don't have one
but want one). Solar
powered battery chargers are really slow but might be the only option.
Change your attitude, don't be
wasteful, and you can reuse many items. A tin can becomes a cup or pot with
a
little work. Use both sides of a
piece of paper and then use it as insulation or tinder. Waste not, want not. This also minimizes trash as there may
be no trash pickup.
Organize your equipment and supplies into different
levels and packages
Stuff you almost always carry
You should make a small kit that
fits in your pocket or
around your neck. This should include:
- ways to make a fire (matches,
mini bic, flint, etc.)
- a button
compass
- a small knife or razor blade,
broken hack saw blade, small file
- Swiss Tech Micro-Tech
6-in-1 Tool
- led light
- small candle (light or fire
making)
- a saw
- short piece of wire
- parachute cord (as much as will
fit)
- iodine tablets
- sturdy needle and thread
- individual salt servings
- food tabs, hard candy, bullion
or individual parmesan cheese/sugar (if space permits)
- freezer bags (water)
- nails (assortment)
- trash bag if it will fit (poncho
or tarp)
- dental floss (twine)
- Advil, Imodium, Benadryl,
vitamins, band aids, SPF chapstick any other essential medicine for you
or your family (all labeled)
- fish hooks, split shot, fish
line, safety pins.
- Survival
cards can go in kit or wallet (you can make something similar).
Personal Fanny Pack (or vest)
This should be small enough and
attached to you so that you do not put it down even when you take a break. Take it with you on any hike, drive or
emergency. A large fanny pack
works well or Ranger Rick
suggests putting everything in a vest and a bamboo walking stick. You can duplicate some of the items in
your mini kit but add substantially.
- Survival
cards or pocket
survival guide (or print some out).
- Knife of your choice (another
one can go in your pocket or on your belt)
- Sharpening
stone (or ceramic
insulator)
- Fire materials (matches and tender
(dryer lint, cotton balls in Vaseline, small candles, etc.) waterproofed)
- Magnifying glass wrapped in
bandana
- Pliers if your knife doesn't
have them
- Compass
- Maps
- Metal cup (boiling water)
- 2 small bottles of water
- Freezer bags (organization,
waterproofing and for more water)
- Small camp soap (or traveler's
shampoo)
- Iodine tablets
- At least 2 trash bags (clear for
still and heavy black for shelter), or tarp and poncho, or space blanket,
or light weight jacket with hood (a shell that compacts) or hat
- Rope, twine and wire
- Headlamp and extra batteries
- Candle
- Wipes
(these are multipurpose and are more compact than toilet paper, keep them
in zip lock bags (add a little water if they get dry))
- Gloves and socks
- Small first aide kit (including
prescriptions)
- Sunscreen and bug repellant.
- Whistle
- Snacks (powerbars, trail mix,
food tabs, tea, Gatorade mix, bullion, beef jerky, MRE)
- A GPS, FRS radio, am/fm radio,
cell phone, or CB can go in here if it fits
- Mini binoculars (to spot
landmarks, approaching fires, etc.)
- Notepad and pencil or pen
- A multipurpose
tool is a good backup for the other items.
72 hour kit (or less)
To some, the 72 hour kit is
everything they have in their house for disasters. I think this should be what you take with you if you have to
evacuate (even on foot). If you
can't carry 72 hours worth of food and water (that is a lot of water even if
you only plan 2 quarts per day), scale it down and put the rest in a car bug
out kit that can be used in your house or on the road. You can also make a similar kit for work
or other places you are likely to be in an emergency. It should be in a medium sized backpack that you can easily
carry (get
a rain cover for the backpack (or make one)—these really help in wet
conditions). Again, repeat items
in your smaller kits as you see fit.
Here are some suggestions:
- It's
a Disaster! Book (or print out a similar one)
- Personal mini-kit and fanny pack
or vest (attached to you separately from the backpack)
- Water (as much as you can fit
without making the bag too heavy, you can carry some containers empty and
fill them later)
- Changes of clothes (several
underwear and socks, long underwear)
- Jacket, hat, and sunglasses
- Sleeping
bag or blanket (and compact pad), hammock
- Soap and other toiletries (comb,
nail clippers and razor)
- Small stove and/or lantern (or
directions and supplies for making one of the stoves above)
- Small tent or tarp and netting,
plastic sheeting, tent poles and stakes (multipurpose)
- Stuff sacks, mesh bags, pillow
cases for organization
- Duct tape
- Hatchet or machete, folding saw
- Small shovel
- Rope, twine and bungee cords
- Backpacking pot/pan
- Cooking and eating utensils
(kitchen knife, can opener, spatula, spoon, forks, plates, cups)
- Foil
- Dish soap, sponge, dish pan or
bucket (collapsible) (also a wash basin or bucket), towel
- Food (Snacks and MREs as well as
rice)
- Vitamins
- Detailed road maps
- topo
maps
- Extra ammo
- Pocket warmers
- A GPS, FRS radio (everyone with
a list of channels to use), am/fm radio, solar calculator, or CB (whatever
you have that fits)
- Copies of important documents,
phone numbers, extra credit card, cash, ID
- Comfort items (book, cards,
bible, pictures, coloring books, games)
Car Kit
Keep this in the car if
possible. I used to keep a lot of
this in my car but since some of it was stolen, I keep most of it in the house
and load it up for longer trips. I
have something similar to the personal fanny pack that I keep hidden in the
jack compartment.
- 72 hour kit
- Flashlight and batteries
- Fire extinguisher
- Jumper cables
- Seat belt cutter and window breaker
(keep within reach)
- Water (bottles can go under the
seats)
- Matches
- Gloves
- Tarps
- Garbage bags
- Wipes
- Maps
- Driving compass
- Rope and/or tow strap and bungee
cords
- First aide kit (any medications)
- Siphon hose for water or gas (do
not drink gas)
- Window washer/scraper
- Crowbar and other tools (hammer,
saw, wrenches, duct tape, fuses, belts, and screws)
- Ax, bucket and shovel (this is
required in some forests)
- Engine oil
- Gas can (keep it empty and
unused unless you have a place for it on the outside of your car or truck)
Stuff you take if you have to Bug Out
This is stuff that is too heavy
to carry in your 72 hour kit but something you can throw in your car (in
addition to what is already there) quickly if you need to evacuate. You might be able to take it in a
garden cart if you can't drive but travel by roads is still safe. Here is an example to help you make
your own
kit (or here). Pack it in crates or duffle bags. Here are some suggestions (what fits in
your car will vary):
- More survival books or books on
camping/country/simple living
- 5 gallon water cans (full)
- Food (cans and other heavy bulky
items)
- Cooler (grab some ice and any
travel friendly fresh items that are still good like cheese, peanut
butter, apples, lemons, and bread)
- Large first aide kit
- Dutch oven
- Stove and fuel or barbeque,
Kelly Kettle
- Lantern (Petromax is good but
expensive)
- Unscented bleach
- Tent and large tarps, rugs
- Blanket and pillows (sleeping
pad, hammock, or cot)
- Paper plates, utensils and cups
- Paper towels and wipes
- Foil
- Solar shower
- Bucket
toilet (you can store garbage bags, toilet paper, wipes, and soap
inside the bucket)
- Many garbage bags
- Laundry soap
- Clothes pins
- Soap and shampoo
- Ant traps and insecticides
- Fishing gear
- Radio and batteries
- Several extra fuel cans (enough
to get to your destination without refueling)
- Propane
heater with fuel
- Generator
- Small safe for guns and
documents
- Bikes (on rack and with pump and
tire repair kit)
- Frisbee or other games
First Aid and Medical Kits
Take a first aide class and more
training if you can. For supplies,
the place to start is with a pre-made small portable first aide kit and a
larger home or car first aide kit.
These are usually $10 to $20 on sale (but can be $100's if you want). You can add items from your
medicine cabinet and replace things like the cheap scissors that usually come
with them. However, these usually are not good for much more than minor cuts
and scrapes (going to a hospital/doctor may not be an option or may take a
while—so do
your best until you can get to one).
For more serious injuries you probably have to make your own kit. The best book is Wilderness
Medicine, by William W. Forgey. His suggested kit in the back of the
book is great (I learned the hard way I needed some of the items that he
recommends and figure the other items are ones I may need in the future). Amazon
and Moore Medical have
most of the items if you can't find them locally. For the house or car first aide kit, I suggest a hard sided
box like a tool box. Dental care is
also important. A toothache is
really distracting. A little dental kit like this
could make you a lot more comfortable until you can see a dentist.
Other Kits
Make other kits as you see
fit. I have a kit that is mainly
in case of terrorist attack (I live and work too close to a likely
target). I have Jane's
Chem-Bio Handbook and what to do if a nuclear attack in imminent as well as Potassium Iodide (seven
days), plastic sheeting, duct tape, Tyvek clothes
coverings, and a face mask
(this is not as good as a gas mask but its what I have). You can spread this to your other kits
if you want.
Security
Protecting yourself from
criminals is as natural
as buying a fire extinguisher to put out fires (but more expensive). Get fences, dead bolts, and lock
your windows at night but if someone really wants to get in your home they
will. Police take an average of
11 minutes or more to respond to violent crimes 40 percent
of the time (sometimes hours), under normal conditions. A lot can happen
in 11 minutes and you are going to wait a lot longer in a crisis. When someone is kicking in your door,
it is too late to go buy a gun.
You are on your own.
Relying on the kindness of someone breaking into your home is not a
good bet.
If you are a gun person, pick
your own gun. This advice if for
those who don't own a gun or don't shoot.
I suggest a pistol, a rifle and a shotgun for every adult (check
you local gun laws). If I had to only have one gun it would
be a shotgun
because of their versatility. A 20
gauge shotgun is more than enough for most purposes including home
defense and has less recoil than a 12 gauge. The Remington
870 is a great choice but many people also like Mossberg. Take a class
on using the shotgun for home defense.
For home defense ammo, I use bird shot. This will not penetrate and
stop a criminal as fast as buck shot but is
also less likely to go
through a wall and hurt an innocent person. Make your own decision here based on who is in adjoining
rooms and how close the neighbors are.
You can always load bird shot as the first few shells followed by buck
shot (keep about 200 rounds on hand because it will be hard to buy in a
crisis). The only options I
recommend are hearing
protection, glasses,
a cleaning
kit, a sling
(guns with slings don't get set down in bad places as much) and maybe a light
or night sights. I think the
factory stocks are fine.
Next on my list would be a
.22. The Ruger
Single Six is a nice
revolver that is convertible to either 22 LR or 22 magnum (This might be a
better choice as the only gun for some people). Also get a holster for it. Savage and CZ make bolt
action rifles that are great bargains. A .22
is a little small for home
defense (it is less likely to stop a criminal in his tracks) but a lot
better than nothing. It is also
important to be comfortable with your gun and a .22 is fun to shoot so you are
more likely to practice
(.22 ammo is very cheap and you can get 1,000 rounds for about
$20). As soon as you are
comfortable with the .22 and your budget allows, you should probably upgrade to
a larger common caliber (.357
for a revolver, 9mm, .40 or .45 for an automatic pistol, 12 gauge for a
shotgun, and .223, .308, 7.62x39, .30-30, or .30-06 for rifles). Get a concealed weapon permit if your state
allows them even if you don't plan on using it (carrying a gun). Again, these take some time to get so
you have to get one before you need it even if you think that will be
never. Also, the required classes
are really great and focus mainly on when not to use a gun. Almost any gun range will offer such a
class (and many others that are worth it too). In general, buying a used
gun is fine (simple guns are very durable) but for the guns I recommend
here, the premium for a new gun (gun store or some sporting good stores) will
probably be less than $100 and probably worth it to avoid any mechanical issues
to start with.
Learn the gun safety rules and
locking up any guns not on your body is a good idea and a necessity if you have
kids (or adults who act like kids) in your home. For pistols you can get a cheap keyed
safe for about $20 (also good for documents). Then you have to hide the key where you can find it quickly
but no one else can. A combination
safe is better but a lot more expensive (practice opening it in the
dark). For long guns you can get a
locking
cabinet for about $100 (some cases have a good
lock and that is a good idea for taking with you in the car), put a lock on a
closet, or get a
real safe for about $1,000.
Trigger locks are generally a bad
idea because you can accidentally pull the trigger when getting them on or
off.
If you decide against a gun, at
least get pepper spray, a baseball bat, or a flashlight. A self-defense class would be good too
(martial arts classes are good but take a long time to become practical). A bullet
proof vest and helmet
would be good but neither is inexpensive.
Finally, there is safety in numbers. Staying with family and friends during a crisis is a good
idea if resources and space allow.
First Steps
- Buy some unscented bleach and start storing water.
- Start accumulating food and other supplies. Initially, just buy more of the food
that you already buy that stores well. Re-pack
as necessary. Get some food
grade buckets or plastic crates and find a cool dark place.
- Start reading more about the risks that you face personally and
ways to deal with them. What
is your plan to deal with each?
- Organize your stuff into personal mini kits, personal fanny
packs (or vests), one or more 72 hour kits for each person for each
location they spend time, a car kit, a bug out kit, and your house stash.
- Practice. This
doesn't have to be a military style exercise. Try camping and living without power and running water
(in your backyard to start with).
Load your car with what you think you would want to take if you had
to evacuate. How long did it
take? Did it all fit? Try driving back roads to get out
of town. Go hiking with your
72 hour kit.
- Periodically take an inventory and revise your plans.
Books and other sources (in order of relevance and
grouped)
Online Resources
SurvivalBlog
(the best daily variety of all types of information at a good price too)
Alpha Rubicon
(The "Mythbusters" of the survival world. Membership required for most information,
great information and more personalities than members)
Non-fiction
Fiction
Some of these are a bit
far
fetched and depressing (worst case) and mainly about TEOTWAWKI (sing “It's The
End of The World as We Know It, and I feel fine" ) (they are fiction)
but still give some good food for thought.
Author's web site: www.PrepareOrDie.com
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Sources for Free Survival and Preparedness Information on the Internet, by K.L. in Alaska
Recent comments in SurvivalBlog provided excellent advice on using the public
library. You can gain lots of knowledge with no expense, then purchase only
those books you want to keep on hand for personal reference. Also, many colleges
and universities loan to local residents, so you can use them too, even if
you aren't a student.
If your local libraries participate, a great resource is Worldcat. It lets you search for books from home,
then go check them out, or get them through interlibrary loan.
What will happen to the Internet when the SHTF?
There's no guarantee it will survive. Even if the World Wide Web endures in
some form, most of the individual computers connected to it will not. Hopefully
by then you will have already downloaded all the free info that's going to
help you cope with the new world.
You may want to download a copy of information
on this web site or any other web site with useful content. It would be a shame
to face some disaster when all the resources of the internet are no longer
at your fingertips.
In preparation for a worst case scenario,
it's a good idea to begin now to collect the knowledge that will come in handy
later. You can download whole books, save them to jump drives, and keep an
entire library in a very small space. All kinds of free manuals, guides, tech
tips, and schematics are available on the internet; for everything from firearms
to furnaces to computers to appliances.
All of the downloads listed
here are in the public domain or allowable for copying. Stay away from sites
that may involve copyright infringement. If you use a file-sharing site such
as Limewire, Kazaa, or any site that uses bit torrents, you are not only downloading,
but also uploading. Your participation involves automatically uploading to
other users. If the file is illegal, you are distributing illegal material,
not just downloading it. Stay away from these and stick with the legitimate
sites listed below.
Keep in mind that some of this information you
download might be illegal to use at the present time. You can't practice dentistry
on your neighbor just because you have the book. Nevertheless, you have the
right to possess this very vital information. After TEOTWAWKI,
all bets are off. The information you collect today might save your life or
the life of somebody you love.
Many downloads are in Portable Document Format
(PDF) form, so to read them you must have a suitable program such as Adobe
Reader, which is the free version of Adobe Acrobat. There are alternatives
to Adobe that can read PDF files, if you prefer. Some of these files are very
large. If your internet connection is slow, it's better to right click and
download rather than try to read a huge file online.
Some documents you may want to print out. Others
you can just leave on disc. Just be sure to store your drives safely. Not included
in this list are the many web sites that are very good resources in themselves.
Rather, these are the files you can download for offline viewing at a later
time. Download them while you still can!
Project
Gutenberg was mentioned as a good place to go for eBooks.
The Smithsonian
Institution is another great resource. They have digitized many older
books, maps, and documents in their collection.
Wikisource has
a nice collection of free eBooks.
One way to search for books no longer in copyright is to use Google
Book Search. Check "full view." If it comes up in the search,
it can be downloaded as a PDF file.
A good alternative to Google is the Internet Archive which includes books,
images, audio, and more. The Internet Archive also hosts the Wayback Machine,
which archives copies of an incredible 85 billion pages from the internet of
years past.
Over 100,000 free eBooks can be accessed through Digital Book Index
2020ok is a directory of
free online books and free eBooks
The British Columbia Digital Library has an impressive Collection, including
dictionaries, encyclopedias, and most importantly, the Holy Bible. It also has a Guide to other digital libraries.
Scribd is an online document
library of free research articles, eBooks, and other content.
A great resource for home schoolers is the Internet's largest
directory of free audio & video learning resources maintained by LearnOutLoud.com.
Check out the postings of Home Schooling
On-line Resources on the The Mental Militia Forums, as well as the "Must
Have" Books/reference material topic.
More than 3,200 pages related to the U. S. Constitution can
be downloaded from The Founders' Constitution
Firearms For any
firearm you own or plan to own, you should have a drawing of its Exploded View,
which will help identify parts and how they fit together. One of the most comprehensive
collections of Exploded Views is the paper edition of the Numrich Arms Catalog, which
in itself is a gold mine of information and very inexpensive for a volume of
over 1200 pages.
But if you only need certain Exploded Views, there are many
places on the internet where you can download them for free:
Gunuts is a good place
to start with hundreds of drawings. Another source is The Okie Gunsmith Shop, which
is apparently no longer operating, but you can still download drawings and
parts lists from its web site.Big Bear Gun Works has
another good list. For pre-WWII firearms, check out Gunsworld. For examples of specific
firearms manufacturers, see Remington, Browning, and SKB Shotguns
The book, The Defensive Use Of Firearms by
Shane C. Henry is available as a download from rec.guns. An enormous amount
of additional gun information is available on the rec.guns web site.
There are several good sources for Military Publications: GlobalSecurity.org has
a huge collection of Military manuals.
Try Integrated Publishing for
access to millions of pages of engineering manuals and documents.
The U.S. Army Materiel Command maintains the LOGSA web site for access
to thousands of Army technical manuals.
The U.S. Air Force maintains the Air Force e-Publishing web site.
As mentioned recently, The
Small Wars Journal has a Reference
Library of downloadable military documents.
The Brooke Clarke
web site has a good guide to accessing military field manuals
Surviving War and Nuclear
Attack For a basic guide, download How
To Survive A Chemical Or Biological Attack.
Nuclear War Survival
Skills, along with some other very interesting books, can be found on
the Oregon
Institute of Science and Medicine web site. This book includes plans
for the Kearny Fallout Radiation Meter (KFM). If you have not bought a radiation
meter, you should at least download the book for future reference. You can
also get the Free
Plans from The Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Nuclear War Survival Skills is also available on the KI4U web site as an online
book, but not as a download.
The Equipped To Survive web site
has some free ebooks, as well as books for sale: Survival,
Evasion, and Recovery and U.S. Army Survival Manual FM 21-76.
The Volunteer Center of Marin County, California has prepared A Guide to Organizing
Neighborhoods for Preparedness, Response and Recovery which you
can copy from their web site.
Medical Resources The Disease
Net has a library of downloadable manuals on survival, weapons, emergency
medicine, and less serious subjects.
Virtual Naval Hospital is
a digital library of naval, military, and humanitarian medicine
The very important field manual, First Aid For Soldiers FM 21-11 can be downloaded here.
One of the best medical handbooks available is the U.S. Army Special Forces Medical Handbook ST31-91B.
It can be downloaded free (as well as additional essential guides) from Delta Gear, Inc.
A newer version of the Medical
Handbook, plus more great material can be downloaded from NH-TEMS
(New Hampshire Tactical Emergency medical support).
The
American Red Cross has some of their disaster guides online for download.
For most of their material, you have to go to the local office. Some of it
can be copied from the Earth
Changes Media Survival Tips page.
The Red Cross Book, First
Aid in Armed Conflicts and Other Situations of Violence
The UK Maritime and Coastguard Agency book, The
Ship Captain's Medical Guide
Hesperian makes
available free downloads of its books for medical treatment in primitive conditions.
Two highly respected guides it publishes are Where There Is No Doctor and Where
There Is No Dentist.
Here is a direct link to the must-have book Survival and
Austere Medicine: An introduction. Australian Survivalist Online
has several additional Files
for downloading.
The Department of Agriculture has
a treasure trove of information for free download. This agency maintains The
National Agricultural Library, a collection of free information on Agriculture,
Food and Nutrition, and other related subjects.
Another USDA web site is the Cooperative Extension
Service. Click on the map to navigate to various Extension offices around
the country. Don't limit your search to just your own state. Many of them
have invaluable information on animals, crops, construction, food preparation
and much more for free download.
The
USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) offers downloads about preventing plant and animal diseases,
among other topics.
The USDA Food Safety Inspection Service (FSIS) offers Fact
Sheets about food handling and preparation, and emergency preparedness.
Other Important Reference
Resources The classic outdoor guides, The 10
Bushcraft Books by Richard Graves are available on the Chris Molloy web
site. Free manuals for electronic equipment can be downloaded from eServiceInfo.com. Another source is UsersManualGuide.com. For Ham Radio
and Test Equipment Manuals, the KO4BB web site has Free Downloads, as well as LINKS to many other web sites with free downloads. A few examples
of repair information for outdoor equipment are Penn Reel Schematics,
and Mercury outboard
parts.
Paid Services In
the unlikely event that you can't find free information on the Net to fix that
generator or whatever you need to repair, there are web sites that charge for
information. As a last resort, you can check Sam's PHOTOFACT service manuals,
or RepairManual.com. Hopefully,
that won't be necessary.
The foregoing just begins to scratch the surface. Some of
these free downloads are also available as books or CDs from eBay, Amazon or
from some of the survivalist web sites. That is fine. Sometimes it is easier
to just pay the money and buy the book. But nobody can afford it all, and downloading
gives you access to millions of pages - much more knowledge than you could
acquire through any other method.
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Letter Re: Comments on the Movie "I Am Legend"
JWR,
My wife and I saw “I Am
Legend” last night at the local theatre.
The movie house was packed. Almost every seat was filled. Of the most
interest was the end. As the movie faded to black and credits rolled,
there were more than several spontaneous bursts of applause throughout the
audience and
a few cheers. Wow! The last movie that I remember ever getting applause was
the last "Star
Wars" installment.
Something really hit deep with many in the audience…
My wife was weird’ed out by the zombies though, as they were quite
scary. So viewer beware.
As for the movie, I enjoyed it, albeit the zombies are a far stretch to the
imagination, the premise is not! (a viral cancer cure with
unintended consequences) The self-sufficient [aspects of] survivalism were
pretty close to reality (Honda generators,
large stores of supplies), although preparedness was not advocated.
He just rounded up (looted) whatever he needed during the day[light hours.]
The desperation of
loneliness was also driven home well. And although he had
a very nice AR-15 rifle
(my survivalist choice, although I do own a SA-58 FAL [clone]),
his hunting skills sucked: Like chasing deer through the city with a high-performance
Mustang,
etc. Good action, dumb logic!
Anyway, I thought you would be interested in hearing about the audience response
from a liberal college town (University of Virginia at Charlottesville.).
Regards, -
Rmplstlskn
JWR Replies: Keep that .308 FAL.
In my opinion, and as previously discussed at length in SurvivalBlog in most
situations it is a much better
choice than a .223 AR-15 or an M4gery.
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Letter From SurvivalBlog's Brazilian Correspondent Re: New Ebola Strain in Africa
Jim,
There has been another
outbreak of Ebola in Uganda, that already has killed 25 people. It is
funny (in a morbid way), but the "good news" that the specialists
gave about this new Ebola strain:
" ...Because of its scanty history, scientists have concluded that the strain
is somewhat containable because it kills its victims faster than it can spread
to new hosts..."
Sometimes, people around tell to us, survivalists: you are always "over-reacting" to
threats that maybe never happen. Well, look at the reason why some medical
workers die:
" ...The mysterious strain has so far infected 104 people -- including the
25 dead -- some of them medical workers who treated patients without latex gloves
and respirator gowns..."
It is unbelievable: in 2007, medical workers dealing with Ebola without latex
gloves and respirators. - "The Werewolf" in Brazil
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Letter Re: Preparedness for Less Than a Worst Case, From an Eastern Urbanite's Perspective
Hello Jim,
I am very new reader of your blog and am just now starting to go through the
archives. Based on what I’ve read so far, I commend you on putting together
a useful, fact-intensive blog on “survivalism” (whatever that means),
that isn’t geared towards loony, off-the-reservation, tinfoil hat-type
readers, who believe that 9/11 was a plot masterminded by Halliburton.
That said, one problem I suspect I will have with your blog is that you consistently
seem to be preparing for an extreme, and more-or-less permanent, breakdown
of society—or TEOTWAWKI, if you will. In one of your blog posts, you
noted that the problem with preparing for TEOTWAWKI, is that “between
now and then, you have your life to live.” This statement is particularly
true for those of us who don’t live out West, don’t live in rural
environments (let alone, gasp, urban east coast cities), have young children,
drive a minivan, and enjoy otherwise the soft, latte-sipping lifestyles of
Yuppiedom in the second Golden Age of American wealth.
My family and I fall into that category to a great deal. Don’t get me
wrong: I e-ticketed most of my courses at Gunsite, so I’m no head-in-the
sand sheeple. And I’m a pretty capable empty hand fighter. But I also
grew up in the suburbs and didn’t exactly spend my youth learning to
trap, fish, hunt, or plant seeds. I am married to a lovely wife who has no
interest in learning to run a carbine, and we have a young daughter who prevents
us from grabbing bug-out rucks and heading off to the bush for two weeks. In
any event, if we ever managed to actually get from our 30th floor apartment
in Manhattan to the bush, I’m not sure we’d know what to do.
The point I’m making is that there are a lot of people like us—people
who live in cities, who don’t feel in the least bit at home in the outdoors,
who aren’t going to learn about land nav or plotting azimuths, who aren’t
going to buy a bug-out retreat in the country that is going to lie empty 52
weeks a year, and who are basically screwed if TEOTWAWKI actually and truly
arrives.
Barring TEOTWAWKI, it seems to me that we are infinitely more likely to face
moderately scary scenarios, like Hurricane Katrina and necessary urban evacuation,
some urban 1970s style civil disturbance but nothing like Mogadishu, high-intensity
individual criminal acts, a low-order terrorist event nearby and the accompanying
panic, or some other situation shy of the worst case scenario.
We urbanites can prepare for those events, while not being entirely distracted
from our workaday “ordinary” lives, or dedicating ourselves to
trying to get off-the-grid. I certainly have made some attempts to prepare.
For example, I have no doubt that we’re in the 99th percentile of Manhattan
preparedness by virtue of the fact that we own:
- a well maintained and fueled Honda CRV with GPS, local region street maps,
XM radio (for news), an empty 5 gallon gas can, and various vehicle repair
tools
- a (legally permitted) pistol and shotgun, and enough ammunition for a firefight
and reload under civilian ROEs
- $4,000 in cash
- a week of MREs and water, full rations
- a PVS-14 [night vision] monocular
- soft body armor
- basic camping equipment
- various tools like a good knife, a pry bar, Surefire lights, chemlights,
paracord, etc.
- a fully stocked medical kit, 30 days of scrip drugs, and a copy of “Medicine
for the Outdoors”
- personal hygiene gear
- a roll of 1mm poly sheeting and a ton of 100 mph tape
- full face respirators and disposable N100 masks
- GMRS radios, shortwave radio, a hand crank radio
- a ton of batteries
- a USB key and a 500 GB backup drive with all our important information
- 1 box of critical paper documents
- clothing suitable for the seasons
- baby stuff
Most of this gear is boxed, labeled, and stored in a single closet that we’ve
dedicated to SHTF equipment. The other stuff (car, guns, cash, key documents,
etc.) could be policed up in 10 minutes, and is written down on a checklist.
If we had to, I reckon we could shelter in place for a week, or we could bug
out in an hour (assuming, of course, Manhattan was not totally gridlocked).
I’d be very interested in your thoughts about what urbanites should be
doing to prepare for bad times, given the restrictions of space, limited knowledge
of/interest in outdoorsman skills, “Yuppie” lifestyle constraints,
etc. Thanks. - D.C.
JWR Replies: For someone that lives on Manhattan Island,
you are definitely quite well-prepared!
Some preparedness upgrades that I'd recommend for you:
1.) Pre-positioning some
supplies stored with friends or relatives, or perhaps in a commercial storage
space, at least 150 miles out of the city, on your intended
"Get Out of Dodge" route. (For that dreaded "worst case.")
2.) Adding a rifle to your firearms battery. With New
York City's semi-auto and magazine restrictions, you might consider
a .308 Bolt action with either a
small detachable
magazine,
or perhaps a non-detachable magazine. A Steyr Scout would be a good choice.
Some semi-auto rifles that might be approved include top-loading M1
Garands
and FN49s. (No doubt easier if you are a member of a CMP-associated
shooting club.) If you can't get permit approval for any modern rifles,
then there is a handy exemption
for
long
guns
"manufactured
prior
to
1894
and replicas
which
are not
designed to
fire fixed ammunition, or for which fixed ammunition is not commercially
available." You might consider a pre-1894 production Winchester Model
1876 or 1886 in an
obsolete caliber such
as .40-60 or .45-90. (See my
FAQ on pre-1899 cartridge guns for details. Be sure
to select rifles with excellent bores and nice mechanical condition.
3.) A
small photovoltaic panel for recharging your flashlights, radios, and
night vision gear batteries.(Along with a 300+ Amp Hour 12 VDC "Jump Pack"
(such as JCWhitney.com's
item # ZX265545) and 12 VDC "DC to DC" battery charging trays and the
various requisite cords.)
4.) A supply of antibiotics.
5.) Consult your local fire code, and store
the maximum legally-allowable quantity of extra gasoline, assuming you have
a safe place to store it. (I realize that most Manhattanites have their cars
stored commercially with no additional storage space, and it can be a 20
minute car-juggling exercise just to get your hands on your car, depending
on how "deep" you are parked.) If extra gas will be stored in your
vehicle, then be sure to get one or more Explosafe
brand fuel cans,
and strap them down securely so that they will maintain their integrity in
the even of a vehicle collision.
You might consider upgrading to a mid-size 4WD SUV (such as an E85-compatible
Ford Explorer) and have it fitted with an auxiliary roof rack where you can
carry extra gas cans. (Again, I realize that most Manhattan parking garages
have height limitations, but do your best.)
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Two Letters Re: Influenza Exercise Shows the Potential for Major Infrastructure Disruptions
James:
In deference to Ben, his numbers are a little off.
I have been spending a great deal of time studying everything I can get my
hands on about a pandemic flu. (I am the Emergency Preparedness Specialist
for my Church) If you go to www.pandemicflu.gov you'll
see that the "experts" expect a morbidity rate (those who will
become sick) of 40% of the US population.and a mortality rate that would
be about 20%. If you do some quick math:
360 million Americans
144 million Americans sick
28 Million Dead.
One of the reasons that the numbers would not be as inflated as Ben states
is that, while H5N1 is
killing at a 50% to 70% range, when and if it mutates, the mortality and morbidity
rates would be much lower. Any virus that wants
to propagate itself needs to keep a higher rate of "Typhoid Mary's" just
to survive. If it kills it's host too well it wont be a global threat. Think
back to other viral scares. Ebola, although tragic to any who come in contact
with it, it kills so well and so fast that it doesn't spread very effectively.
Same goes with the SARS scare
in the 1990s.
A pandemic flu will be disastrous and possibly the worst thing we have ever
experienced. Couple that with an economic downturn, a massive hurricane, earthquake,
flood, ice storm, or war, and it may be the kind of "event" that
changes the way we look at TEOTWAWKI.
Regards, - KM
Jim,
The 1918 Flu is normally used to project/predict the effects of Avian Influenza
because it is the last major flu epidemic for which we have decent records.
Apparently, the current virus also seems to share some characteristics with
the 1918. With regards to Ben's figures on higher mortality: the fact is
we don't know what the mortality rate of adapted Avian Influenza will be.
Usually, when a virus makes the jump to easy transmission between humans,
it loses some of it's potency. This isn't guaranteed, but it seems to be
the general trend, and so the models used to predict Avian Influenza generally
follow this reasonable assumption. All the
predictions being made are based on history, understanding of mutation mechanisms,
and the like--but they are still basically guesses, since we won't really know
how the virus will mutate until it does.
I'd suggest doing
some Operational Risk Management, balance the potential impact with the reasonable
probability, and apply preparation resources accordingly. From my reading on
the subject, there is a theoretical "tipping point" in
pandemic disease casualties (whether natural or bio-warfare) where society
may disintegrate--possibly between 10 and 20 million for the modern US. The
projections based on 1918 are below the admittedly "fuzzy" guesstimate
of this point, while the worst case (lethality of Avian Influenza remains in
the 50% range without affecting its ability to spread) are well above. It's
food for thought. Regards, - PSJ
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Letter Re: Influenza Exercise Shows the Potential for Major Infrastructure
Jim,
With all due respect (to Chris in Utah and the folks cited by Computerworld),
"If
a pandemic strikes the U.S., it will kill about 1.7 million people" is
a fantasy, because it is based upon the 1918-1919
flu's
death-rate of 2.5%, and also that the United States' population of the time
was around one-third of the present number.
It was said that, in "normal" times, flu killed some 0.25% of those
afflicted. In 1918-1919, that figure skyrocketed to 2.5%. Triple the
U.S.'s population (in regard to the earlier 20th Century figure), and the post-WW1's
death-rate goes to slightly over 2 million. But, as I indicated earlier,
that's with the 2.5% rate.
In Indonesia and elsewhere, the death rate [for H5N1] is not
even close to 2.5%. It is more like 53% to 60%. I made some further
calculations (2.5
x 20,
for starters, although that is a rather conservative figure), an came up with
the following figure[s], that the death rate, in the U.S. alone (675,000 x
3 x 20), will be more along the lines of 40,500,000 (say a round 40 million,
just to keep things tidy.)
Anybody who is of the opinion that a mere 1.7 million--approximately 3 times
the
1918-19 rate--will be in their shrouds is living in Fantasyland. That-all is
based on percentage that catches the flu, not the entirety of the U.S. population.
Regards,
- Ben
