Economics and Investing:

A Recipe For Massive Hyperinflation or Bankruptcy: ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury, iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond

Michael Pollaro: Chairman Bernanke, Price Inflation is the Least of Your Problems

Over at Lew Rockwell’s page, Peter Schiff predicts: US Debt Crisis Will Be Worse Than Europe’s

Items from The Economatrix:

Housing To Drive Growth (Finally!)

American Consumers Upbeat In February

Inflation Remained Subdued In January



Odds ‘n Sods:

Don’t mistake this tyranny for some sort of “moderation” or “compromise”: Deal on gun background checks hinges on tracking sales. Please contact your congressmen and senators to again remind them that intrastate private party sales of used guns are OUTSIDE of the scope of the Interstate Commerce Clause. No Federal nexus means no Federal jurisdiction!

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For those who prefer to store plain sea salt: Redmond Real Salt

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Lew Rockwell: Prozacked Nation

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Rather than backtracking, “Shotgun Joe” Biden is digging himself a deeper hole. Oh, and speaking of scatterguns, there is this news from Colorado: Popular Standard Shotgun Could Be Banned Under Proposed Bill.

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A verdict in former Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick’s latest corruption trial will likely be announced this week. Detroit’s Dapper Dresser may be in for a long stretch in Federal Correctional Institution, Milan, Michigan. Kilpatrick is of course just one of many in Mayor Bloomberg’s “crime fighting” cohort who has ended up in prison. Perhaps they should start an elite inner circle group, within Mayors Against Illegal Guns. They could call themselves: “Convicted Former Mayors Who Can No Longer Legally Own Guns with the Temerity to Demand Disarmament to the Law Abiding”, or perhaps more succinctly: “Crime Expert-Crime Fighters”. Or they could call it The World Crime League, but that name has already been taken.



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"The number one, primary, superlative, over-arching pinnacle of survival preparedness is to GET RIGHT WITH GOD on His terms. Everything else is secondary. ARE YOU READY?" – Kim Noel



Notes from JWR:

Now feeling fully Sequestered and safe in the American Redoubt, your Editor notes that the sky has not fallen, as predicted by the pundits on MSNBC. In fact the $109 billion in “dreaded automatic budget cuts” are merely a decrease in the rate of budget increase. Federal spending will actually be going up by more than $14 billion. But I’m sure that BHO and company will misdirect as many departmental cuts as possible, to maximize the perceived stress. Much anguished hand-wringing, nay-saying and fear mongering, to follow in the weeks to come. They will no doubt brand it a “crisis.” Oh, the horror of a decreased rate of increase. Excuse me while I go throw another chunk of Red Fir in the woodstove.

Today we present another entry for Round 45 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and G.) A $200 gift certificate, donated by Shelf Reliance.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials and F.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value. E.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value), and F.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 45 ends on March 31st, 2013, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Emergency Bags for Your Vehicle, by Z.T.

Most preppers probably have a pretty good handle on how to assemble a bug-out-bag (BOB). And, it’s probably so large and ungainly, that it gets stuck in the closet, just like mine. Let’s be honest, are you going to have it when you need it? I think we have covered the likelihood of being at home when “it” happens in plenty of detail in the past. We have seen that the chances of you being at home on your couch with your BOB beside you are slim. What about all the other situations? In other words, where to you spend a sizeable quantity of your life in a situation that can easily turn against you? And, in this situation, are you adequately prepared? Lastly, are you just thinking of yourself, or thinking of your dependents…who are what really matter.

Ironically, about a month ago, Alabama had one of those Jesus Is Coming moments when the white stuff from hades started falling. If you don’t catch the joke, it’s that Alabama shuts down at just the threat of severe winter weather. I was sitting here in my office when the loud speaker told us to go home. In the ice and snow. 2,500 people all recklessly driving to pick up their kids. Not only does Alabama shut down, but Alabamians don’t know how to drive in bad weather, of any kind. But they are particularly incapable of driving in snow and ice. Case in point is that on Interstate 65, wrecks caused 24 hour delays. Most of these delays were between exits in a very rural area. Families were trapped in their vehicles for a whole day.

I guess you can see where I am going with this article. The fact is, you use your car every day. You spend a sizeable amount of your life in a car. And of all things that you do, driving is probably both the most dangerous and most likely to put you into one of these situations. Here is the kicker: it is also the most likely time that you will have to fend not only for yourself, but for your entire family. Face it, being stuck in the snow for 24 hours is bad. But, you…by yourself…could hump it, if you had to. It wouldn’t be the end of the world. But it wouldn’t be the case for me.

So, my wife…ever supportive of this hobby of mine…saw a real application of survival prepping. She asked me to make an emergency kit for the car. While most of you reading would think about gas cans, flashlights, and tow straps, recall that many of us have kids. Young ones. We can’t just start humping it up the interstate. We need food, water, and warmth. Now, I know times are hard and people have a tough time spending money on things they will probably never use. But, you can’t put a price on safety, convenience, or comfort. These things do happen. All the time.

I am going to show you how to put together a simple kit that will buy you 24 hours of comfort and assurance for you and your family. And I am going to do it on a budget that anyone can feel good about, while maintaining the useful space in your vehicle.

After a few weeks of procrastinating, I finally got serious (and got paid…). The first thing I did was to shop at the Emergency Essentials web site. They have plenty of “all in one package” items, but not only was the all in one survival bags a little bit more than I wanted to spend, it took the fun out of shopping and building it for myself. Not only that, but everyone is different in their level of survivability. I started out by buying the 72 Hour Improved MRE kit. This cost $58 dollars.

 

Contents of the Improved MRE 72-Hour Food and Water Supply

  • MRE Main Dish Entrees 9
  • MRE Side Dishes 6
  • MRE Dessert 6
  • MRE Drink Mix 3
  • Water Pouch 18
  • Bread/Biscuit 3
  • Peanut Butter 2
  • Jam Packet 1
  • Cheese Packet 1
  • Hard Candy 3
  • Accessory Pack 9

Now, that’s a big box of stuff, and honestly, as I counted up the calories, I realized that we didn’t need all of this, nor could we fit it in the car conveniently. I figured we needed a solid 1,000 calorie meal and days’ worth of water. After all, we are American and it would take weeks to starve us fat people. But kids get cranky and it’s hard to keep your wits about you when you have 3 of them telling you how hungry they are. Turns out, by counting the calories in each item, it took one MRE main dish, one dessert, and one fruit for a 1,000 calorie meal. Multiple that by 5 and I actually had 1 person’s day worth of food left over, which I added to my 24 hour bag.

Additionally, I added:

  • Wool survival blankets for $11.99. That’s a steal. These things are heavy and huge. And they normally cost $25.
  • 5 Hothands Super Warmers. I bought these for $1 each.
  • 3 Mylar emergency blankets. I bought these in a lot of 10 from Amazon for under $5
  • 3 glow sticks. I bought these in a lot of 10 for $11
  • Baggie of vitamins and OTC pills.
  • One large flashlight
  • Basic hand tool kit
  • Straps and bungee cords
  • Can of Fix-A-Flat

Even after I put this together, I noticed that there were some other things that I think should be added, but aren’t necessary. For you, they may be, so don’t forget about things like playing cards, sanitary wipes/toilet paper, extra plastic sacks, spare sets of clothes, and, if you need it as we do, baby formula.

While the people reading this already are like-minded and see the benefit of this kit, I am trying to appeal to those that aren’t. The Top Two Questions you are asking are: 1) I bet it’s a lot of money for something I will never use and 2) That much stuff would be impossible to fit in my vehicle. These two questions were foremost on my mind when I put this together. Why? Because like everyone else, I am on a budget and I have three children and all of their stuff. Yet, it fits nicely behind the back seat of my Chevy Yukon. It isn’t very heavy. The total cost was under $60.



Letter Re: Today is the Day Christianity Became Illegal in Canada

Mr. Rawles,
I have, most of the time been proud to be a Canadian. We have our problems, much like other countries, but I’d always believed that our country was one of the best, most free in the world. It both infuriates me and causes me great sadness to write the latter in the past tense. Today I read an article from a news source I have followed for many years and trust implicitly, Lifesitenews.

Essentially, the Supreme Court of Canada has killed freedom of speech and freedom of religion in one fell blow. If we can no longer as Christians be permitted to have beliefs with regards to what actions are right and wrong, and to communicate those beliefs, I have little hope for our society. If calling certain actions sinful is ‘hate speech’, I fear it won’t be long before we see priests, pastors, teachers and parents arrested for speaking their beliefs, even to their own children. And what will happen to these children? I feel betrayed by my country, and furious that almost no one else realizes that we are being betrayed.

My parents home schooled me and my siblings for most of our school years. My brother and his wife home schooled their 9, my wife and I home school our 4, my sister and her husband plan to do likewise. There are other homeschooling families and members of our church who are beginning to wake up, but we are among the few who have not been inculcated. We are a very small minority. I wish I could say otherwise, I wish I could be more hopeful, but there will be no ‘Canadian Redoubt’, nor any reason for one. Even among the few who can see what is happening, there are fewer yet who are of the belief that anything can be done by citizens. And with that belief, they may be right. We would be as lambs to the proverbial slaughter, being the nail that sticks up, only to be hammered down.

I live in rural Alberta. I love it here. Today I started looking at Montana’s home schooling laws and gun laws. I like them, so I started looking at property. I’m a rig welder in the oilfield, and I hear North Dakota is pretty busy now.

Your prayer will be appreciated. I will pray for you and yours. God bless you and keep you – G.L.



Economics and Investing:

Jim W. was the first of several readers to point me to this piece at Zero Hedge: Silver Demand Surges To Record For February. Jim W. correctly observed that the paper markets for precious metals are increasingly irrelevant. The true relevance in the grand scheme of things can be found in the fact that the supply of paper is limitless and he supply of silver is fixed. Don’t be frightened by short term swings in the market. Just be thankful for the dips–our opportunities to buy in in the midst of a long term bull market. Buy tangibles, not conceptuals.

Read Max W. sent this quip: “The good news is that with Sequestration, the gubmint will stop buying up so many billions of rounds of ammo, so prices may come back down to normal.”

Consumer Spending in U.S. Climbs Even as Taxes Hurt Incomes

Items from The Economatrix:

WH Releases State-By-State Breakdown Of Sequester’s Effects

New Tax Codes Causing Delays In Filing 2012 Returns

Our Country Is Heading For A Complete Meltdown Of The Financial System As We Are Experiencing A Combination Of Elements From The Great Depression And Weimar Germany



Odds ‘n Sods:

Cooking With Three Candle Flames

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The Spring Survival Medicine classes with SurvivalBlog’s Medical Editor Dr. Cynthia Koelker (of Armageddon Medicine) are now open for registration.  Learn to suture, cast, and much more. The available seats fill up early, so register soon.

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Safecastle now offers a discount price for quantity purchases of Waterbricks. Through a special arrangement with the manufacturer, these are shipped directly from the factory, to reduce shipping costs. Waterbricks are great for storing water, bulk grain, bulk legumes, or even bulk .22 LR ammo. 😉

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Reports of rare superbug jump in US, CDC says. (A hat tip to Mark P. for the link.)



Jim’s Quote of the Day:

"Thou shalt provide out of all the people able men, such as fear God, men of truth, hating covetousness; and place such over them to be rulers." – Exodus 18:21



Notes from JWR:

Idaho’s federal gun enforcement protection bill will go before committee today. (Friday, March 1, 2013.) If you live near the capitol, please try to attend the hearing, to show your support. The hearing will begin at 9 a.m. in the State Affairs Committee room. (Garden level house side, east side.) Here is a link to the text of the bill.

Today is the last day of Camping Survival’s semi-annual sale on Mountain House foods. They are offering 25% off #10 cans and kits, and 15% off all pouches. Get your order in by midnight, eastern time on March 1, 2013.

Today we present another entry for Round 45 of the SurvivalBlog non-fiction writing contest. The prizes for this round include:

First Prize: A.) Gunsite Academy Three Day Course Certificate, good for any one, two, or three course. (A $1,195 value.) B.) A course certificate from onPoint Tactical. This certificate will be for the prize winner’s choice of three-day civilian courses. (Excluding those restricted for military or government teams.) Three day onPoint courses normally cost $795, and C.) Two cases of Mountain House freeze dried assorted entrees in #10 cans, courtesy of Ready Made Resources. (A $350 value.) D.) a $300 gift certificate from CJL Enterprize, for any of their military surplus gear, E.) A 9-Tray Excalibur Food Dehydrator from Safecastle.com (a $300 value), and F.) A $250 gift certificate from Sunflower Ammo. and G.) A $200 gift certificate, donated by Shelf Reliance.

Second Prize: A.) A gift certificate worth $1,000, courtesy of Spec Ops Brand, B.) A Glock form factor SIRT laser training pistol and a SIRT AR-15/M4 Laser Training Bolt, courtesy of Next Level Training. Together, these have a retail value of $589. C.) A FloJak FP-50 stainless steel hand well pump (a $600 value), courtesy of FloJak.com. D.) A “grab bag” of preparedness gear and books from Jim’s Amazing Secret Bunker of Redundant Redundancy (JASBORR) with a retail value of at least $300, E.) A $250 gift card from Emergency Essentials and F.) Two cases of Meals, Ready to Eat (MREs), courtesy of CampingSurvival.com (a $180 value).

Third Prize: A.) A Royal Berkey water filter, courtesy of Directive 21. (This filter system is a $275 value.), B.) A large handmade clothes drying rack, a washboard and a Homesteading for Beginners DVD, all courtesy of The Homestead Store, with a combined value of $206, C.) Expanded sets of both washable feminine pads and liners, donated by Naturally Cozy. This is a $185 retail value, D.) A Commence Fire! emergency stove with three tinder refill kits. (A $160 value. E.) A Tactical Trauma Bag #3 from JRH Enterprises (a $200 value), and F.) Two Super Survival Pack seed collections, a $150 value, courtesy of Seed for Security.

Round 45 ends on March 31st, 2013, so get busy writing and e-mail us your entry. Remember that there is a 1,500-word minimum, and that articles on practical “how to” skills for survival have an advantage in the judging.



Field Evasion Skills, by JOAT

So there I was, in the back of the UH-60 Blackhawk lifting my feet at various intervals for fear that they would scrape the pine trees as the pilot hugged the terrain below with the chopper.  One thing led to another and the next thing I knew the chopper was on the ground and I was running full speed to get to the trees to find concealment from nearby hostiles that intended to do me harm. As I got up and over the nearest ridge and ducked into some temporary concealment; I stopped and listened. After waiting for what seemed like an eternity for my heart to slow down so I could hear something other than the pounding in my ears, it was quiet. An eerie quiet that made me wonder if the bad guys were just sitting behind the next tree waiting to roll me up the second I started to move. I knew I wasn’t far enough away from where I left the Blackhawk so I got moving again and after the most nerve-racking 1,200 meters of my life, I found a place to hide. In the middle a huge patch of brush where no one would find me unless they stepped on me, I pulled out my map to figure out where I was. That was a long cold night shivering under my poncho listening for any sign of danger. At dusk the next morning I cautiously headed in the direction of where I thought the good guys would be. After 5 agonizing days and nights avoiding detection and a ton of other circumstances that I do not have the liberty to discuss, I was recovered by a friendly indigenous force and eventually reunited with my loved ones.

Thankfully, every detail of the preceding account took place in northeastern Washington as part of an elaborate training exercise. This phase of training combined with eight other separate phases prepared me to become a US Air Force Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape (SERE) Specialist.

I’ve set up and participated in multiple evasion training events, playing the evader and other times the aggressor. I’d like to offer some instruction and insight on the topic of evasion which is not often discussed, but can make the difference between life and death when/if the time comes. The following narrative is written with the assumption that you are in a rural setting (urban evasion is much different) and there is no recovery force available. You are on your own.

The Five Phases of Evasion

1-Immediate Action:
Time is of the essence! This phase is where you are quickly deciding if you should stay and fight or evade instead and if you choose the latter, what should you take with you (hopefully your BOB is packed and nearby). A quick check to sanitize yourself so nothing compromises you or your group if you’re caught, then it’s time to high-tail it out of there. Assume the enemy is nearby and take caution when leaving the area.

2-Initial Movement:
The main objective here is to put time, distance and terrain between you and the bad guys and avoid lines of communication (roads, water bodies, trails, railroads, power lines, fences, etc.). You’re moving with a purpose, but shouldn’t be running with reckless abandon. Moving in an erratic pattern will limit the enemy’s ability to anticipate your line of travel. Periodic stops to take note of the environment will prevent running into more danger and give you the chance to detect any followers. The idea is to get far enough away from danger, effectively hide and plan your exit strategy.  Consider the fact that your adversary may have a dog and handler looking for you. Forget the nonsense you’ve seen in Hollywood and don’t waste valuable time/resources leaving traps behind or trying to get to water and “float away your scent”. Nothing you’re going to do is going to fool the dog; the handler is the one to be defeated. Using the principles of time, distance and terrain will work against the best dog/handler team. Time: dogs and handlers fatigue and have a limited workday. The more time you put between you and the area they start looking for you; the harder it is on that team. Distance: fatigue will continue to build on the dog/handler which degrades their ability to locate you. Additionally, more miles introduce more variables to the dog which have to be factored in by the handler as reliable or unreliable leads. Terrain: traversing difficult/dangerous terrain is challenging to the dog/handler team. This buys the evader time to plan his next move and continues to erode the will and energy of the dog and handler. While on the move, be on the lookout for a hole up site.

3-Hole Up:

The BLISS acronym comes in handy when remembering evasion shelter principles.
Blend- Hole up sites must look like and be a natural part of their surroundings.
Low silhouette- For the same reason you lay down to hide.
Irregular shape- Similar to blending, so don’t string up your poncho and start creating straight lines that draw attention.
Small- Just big enough for you and your gear.
Secluded- Like any real estate, location is everything. Don’t use the only clump of brush on the hill side.

You will want a site that will conceal you, but also protect from the weather if possible. Rocky outcroppings and/or dense vegetation can get the job done while also obscuring your movements and heat signature should the enemy have night vision or thermal capabilities.

Make use of the military crest if it’s available (2/3 up the mountainside, 1/3 from the top). This prevents silhouetting, provides good line of sight and avoids setting up shop in the cold sump of a valley or windy ridge line. Once a potential hole up site is identified, don’t just dive in. Approach the site using a large sweeping “J” pattern. This allows you the opportunity to detect anyone following your trail while you are in the site and get out before they discover your hole up area. Along the same lines, your hole up site should afford you multiple avenues of escape.
Now that you’re in the hole up site and have naturalized the immediate entrance area, inventory your gear, take care of medical issues, work on your camouflage, get some rest and develop a plan.  Light discipline should be strictly adhered to– if you’re breaking out the map during low light, use a small red light with a poncho over you at a minimum. Typically, bad situations don’t happen to people on warm sunny days, but by the same token, you must not light a fire unless your life absolutely depends on it! In the event you NEED a fire, the Dakota hole is the way to go (two holes about fist width, 12 inches down, 12 inches apart, with a tunnel connecting the two at the bottom). Dig the holes near the base of a tree with lots of boughs/branches to help with smoke dispersal and use the smallest (think pencil lead size), driest wood you can find (hardwood is preferred). Hover over this fire with your poncho on (if available) and keep your flames below ground level. If bad guys start to roll up on you, keep the dirt from digging your Dakota hole on a piece of material nearby so you can quickly extinguish your fire, naturalize the area and get out of there. Latrines should be separate from your hole up site (avoid leaving trails) and must be naturalized as well. Procuring water during your evasion should be done only using obscure water sources (i.e. small mud hole, mopping up dew with a bandana, melting snow in a bottle between clothing layers, catching rainwater, etc). Approaching other water sources (creeks, ponds or rivers) puts you in unnecessary danger (more on this later). Food should be in the form of edible plants or insects, but staying hydrated is the primary concern. Edible plants are beyond the scope of this article and many books are available on the topic. As far as insects go, look for 6 legs or less and 3 distinct body segments (ants, grasshoppers, crickets, etc) Side note: My vote is for the ants. They’re similar to lemon flavor and much better tasting then any of the other slow moving protein I’ve eaten. Even worms and grubs will provide enough protein to take the edge off the hungriest evader. Fishing, snaring and hunting will generally not be conducive to the evader who has major concealment/security concerns as well as limited supplies and limited time for these activities.

4-Evasion Movement:
If you are well hidden and can meet your needs in your hole up site, there may be no need to ever enter this phase of evasion.  If you determine that you must move, develop a plan of where you need to go and how you will get there (line of travel). Movement should be slow and methodical. The environment will dictate the speed, body posture and navigation route you choose. For example: dry conditions with leaves on the ground will make every step a tightrope act for fear of crunching foliage underfoot. Crossing an area of sparse vegetation if unavoidable, may require crawling to reduce visibility to enemy eyes. While straight line navigation may be the shortest route, it’s probably not the safest and can make it much easier for the bad guys to figure out where you might be headed (and cut you off) should they find your tracks. During travel, move to and from points of concealment while using natural cover and shadows to your advantage. Constantly be on the lookout for the enemy and if seen, slowly fade away into concealment (quick movements catch the eye). Consider memorizing the evasion route and avoid marking on your map (if available) or folding it to a specified area then handling it with dirty hands. This can reveal your intended destination (retreat/group location) to adversaries if you are caught. If there are two or more evaders in your group use the additional eyes and ears to your advantage with tactical movement. There are a number of ways to skin this cat, but here is one that may work for you: Evader #1 moves along the route to concealment (still in visual contact with #2). #1 gets his bearing for his next point of concealment, looks back and gives #2 the thumbs up. #2 does a quick scan of their 6 o’clock (he’s rear security) and if everything is kosher, he slowly moves to #1’s concealment site. #2’s movement prompts #1 to move to his next concealment. When he gets there the process repeats until they make it home. If #2 were to pick up on noise or movement during this process, he simply stays at his concealment until the threat is gone. His inaction will show #1 that the coast is not clear. If #1 identifies a threat at any time he simply does not give the thumbs up to #2 until the danger is gone. No thumbs up signals #2 to sit tight. This method ensures good communication between evaders and allows the group to move in a tactical manner. If there are three or even more evaders, movement is the same. #2 would give the thumbs up to #3 and so on (a domino approach). Any time there are multiple evaders the group must decide on a rally point (before movement) should the group get separated for any reason. Ideally, your evasion movement should get you out of the danger area and on to the final phase of evasion.

5-Recovery: There’s always been a recovery force in the scenarios I’ve dealt with, but here we’ll assume the worst and say that it’s up to you to return to friendly control (wherever/whoever that may be). History and everyday life have shown that people start to ease off when they think the end is near. My advice is- don’t become complacent! It would break your heart to be so close to safety only to get rolled up by the bad guys. This is the time to focus and avoid the distracting thoughts of freedom (run through the tape, as the saying goes).

Principles of Evasion

  1. Be flexible- Successful evasion involves fluid decision making and not restricting yourself to one approach. Change with your environment and the challenges that it presents (be like water, grasshopper). Having an Evasion Plan of Action with multiple courses of action can prepare the evader for the changes that are sure to come.
  2. Stay hidden- There are several techniques that play into avoiding detection.
  3. Pay attention to the environment. Especially during times of movement- stop, look, listen and smell. You are extremely vulnerable when on the move. Movement catches the eye, creates sound and generally draws unwanted attention so you’ve got to keep your head on a swivel. Be alert to game in your immediate area. Birds, squirrels and the like can act as your personal alarm system if you’re paying attention in the hole up site. However, this can work against you when you’re the one on the move.
  4. Only move if you have to and use periods of low light and/or inclement weather for concealment. Dusk and dawn provide the evader with enough light to avoid stumbling through the dark making a ton of noise and possibly getting lost, while also minimizing the effectiveness of night vision devices that may be used by the search party. Inclement weather aids the evader with covering tracks, masking the noise of movement, obscuring visibility and making life very hard on the bad guys looking for you.
  5. If you must move at night, navigation is going to be more challenging without the use of a compass, but you can use celestial aids (Polaris in the Northern hemisphere/Southern cross for the Southern hemisphere) to avoid walking circles in the woods. When looking at ground objects in the dark, look slightly to one side and use your peripheral vision. Squat down and skyline the things in front of you to assist with identifying more distant objects.
  6. Steer clear of lines of communication. These areas are natural lines of drift for the common populace and the evader must be uncommon, unconventional and unpredictable. While these areas are much easier/faster traveled, they invite trouble for the evader.
  7. Leave no evidence of your presence by cleaning up after yourself. This doesn’t just apply to your hide site; it applies to movement (i.e. tracks, broken branches, matted grass, ruffled leaves, etc). Be conscious of disturbing your surroundings and walk on hard surfaces when available. Consider wrapping your boots with cloth to make tracks appear older, or better yet, travel during inclement weather!
  8. Camouflage needs to be appropriate for your surroundings and updated as the environment changes. Hide the shiny objects like glasses, watches, zippers, jewelry and buckles. Pad the noisy items on your body and equipment. Cover exposed skin with any available materials (face paint, mud, ash, etc). If using natural vegetation to conceal items on your person, ensure they appear natural (leaves/boughs are a very different color on the bottom side) and are changed out as they wilt. Much has been written on the topic of camouflage so we’ll leave it at that.
  9. Generally speaking, engaging hostiles while evading is bad for business. There are exceptions to every rule, but the evader is usually badly outnumbered and out gunned. If you do decide to drill the bad guy walking in the vicinity of your hole up site, be sure you’re prepared for your next move. Is he a scout for the main party shortly behind? Are you sure he even sees you? I’ve seen the warrior mentality compromise people’s judgment. Sometimes it’s better to run away and live to fight another day. 

 

Plan ahead- An Evasion Plan of Action can serve you and your group well in the event that you need to evade. If you live in a bigger city, this plan should be part of your bug out preparations and incorporate several scenarios with emphasis placed on rally points and timelines. The Evasion Plan of Action is worth its weight in gold when you are separated from your main party and communications are down.  We use the PACE acronym in the military: Primary, Alternate, Contingency, Emergency. All eventualities are covered (or as many as possible). An example Evasion Plan of Action may look like, but is not limited to the following:

Communications plan/Call Signs:
P-Cell Phone
A-Landline
C-CB/two way radio
E-Shortwave/ham radio

Immediate communication intentions ( 0 to __ hours): Try to establish comms using Primary and Alternate method for the first half hour. If no contact is made, attempt contact at the top of the hour for the next 24 hours…
Extended communication intentions (after __ hours): Try to establish comms using Contingency or Emergency methods at 1200 local every day…

Call signs also listed here.

Rally Points:
P-The house
A-Relative/Friend’s house
C-Beacon Hill (easily recognizable terrain feature just outside the city)
E-The retreat location

Immediate rally intentions ( 0 to __ hours): Try to get to Primary rally point. If compromised, use Alternate rally point…
Extended rally intentions (after __ hours): If unsuccessful rally after the first 24 hours use Contingency rally point. After 48 hours…

Cache Locations/Descriptions:

Evasion Intentions: Will move away from lines of communication and attempt to make comms…

Code Words/Numbers/Bullseye/Etc:
–Note: use of a Bullseye (prearranged landmark used as a point of reference) can come in handy for a group. For example, if I have comms with my group and a map compass or GPS, I can relay that I am 8 miles at 115 degrees from Bullseye. My group knows what bullseye is and therefore knows where I am, but nobody else listening in knows where I am.
Obviously the Evasion Plan of Action is going to have information on it that you don’t want just anybody seeing, so keep it close hold or better yet, memorize it! Keep in mind, the Evasion Plan of Action is just a plan and plans get tossed out sometimes depending on the circumstances and that’s okay. Never forget the first principle of evasion– be flexible! Evading will never be easy. You’ll likely be cold, tired, hungry, scared and injured to name a few, but remember your worst day evading is better than your best day in captivity!

Further Reading on Survival, Evasion, Resistance and Escape:

Return With Honor by George E. Day
Lone Survivor: The Eyewitness Account of Operation Redwing and the Lost Heroes of SEAL Team 10 by Marcus Luttrell
Bravo Two Zero: The Harrowing True Story of a Special Forces Patrol Behind the Lines in Iraq by Andy McNab
Wilderness Evasion: A Guide to Hiding Out and Eluding Pursuit in Remote Areas by Michael E. Chesbro
Air Force Regulation 64-4 Search and Rescue Survival Training



Letter Re: .300 AAC Blackout Uppers for AR-15s

Hi James,
I read your excellent forum every day, before I read the local paper. In case you haven’t looked at the new .300 AAC Blackout, you might want to take a hard look at it.  

The PDF of a presentation by an AAI executive describes it quite well.

With just an upper receiver swap out, you can have an AR-15 that will shoot through a pretty hefty tree, vehicle panel or door.  I load my own and convert old 5.56  brass into Blackout brass with a single stroke of the press handle. A Dillon electric case trimmer whacks the top 10mm of the casing off as it extrudes from the form die.  I can make a thousand Blackout cases in an afternoon. The new round can launch any .308” diameter bullet.  If I load Winchester 147 gr FMJ boat-tails in it, I can shoot right through a 17 inch diameter cedar tree every time. Recoil is mild, slightly heavier than the 5.56. Noise is far less, especially if fired from a short barrel (compared with the ear-splitting 5.56).  My teenaged girls love shooting it, unlike the M1A.  It fits them, costs little to reload, and generates about 71% of the power of a full house 7.62 NATO.  It’s a 300 meter cartridge in 147 grain variety, or a 460 meter round in 110 gr or 125 gr format.  The Barnes TAC-TX and the Sierra 125 gr Match King are Blackout-specific…totally redesigned to squeeze maximum downrange performance out of the round. Factory ammo is available from Hornady, Federal, and Remington. I like the Remington 115 gr ball round of all the factory loadings. Even this OTM load will defeat a 9 inch tree, more than any loading in the 5.56. Haven’t tested the Sierra 125 Match on a tree yet, but it does about 12 inches of plywood, shot into a stack, against the edge of the grain. Bullet stays intact! Bends into a banana and yaws immediately. With pulled .30-06 AP bullets at only 1,680 feet per second, it waltzes right through 29 inches of tree (it may penetrate more, but I haven’t found a fatter tree yet!). I’m learning that velocity is not everything.

The Blackout uses the original 5.56 bolt, carrier, magazines…you buy nothing but the new upper. Swaps in ten seconds.  So, you get the handiness of the AR rifle, which fits small shooters and girls very well….with a round that hits like a hammer.  Spec Ops units are using it right now, as well as some enlightened LE outfits.  I showed it to my local police, and they were either bored (most patrolmen) or they jumped on it (SWAT people).  Most patrolmen would rather have a new ball point pen than a new gun.  None of the locals were in any way hostile to armed citizens, with most quite supportive. Another good reason I like living in Utah–we have mostly good cops.

If you run low on Blackout ammo, swap the 5.56 upper back on and go. Two useful calibers (well, one, anyway…) on one platform. Produces 16% more energy than the Soviet 7.62×39.  Zero muzzle flash, since it uses pistol powder (H-110/W296). At 100 meters and beyond, it exceeds the energy of the .30-30 Win. It is wildly popular for feral pig hunting in Texas.  About half of my shooting friends have already converted at least one AR over to the Blackout.   I recommend the Advanced Armament Company (AAC) upper, as they pioneered it with Remington Defense, and build uppers for serious users (Special Ops) and do everything to military specifications. Theirs feature generous clearances in the chamber dimensions so they will run with dirty ammo, hot barrel, adverse conditions. A “match” chamber is just for players and hobbyists. The best place to buy one is through Bulls Eye Indoor Range in Lawrenceville, Georgia. Ask for Jeremy, their Blackout specialist. Factory ammo is available there, too.  Since it is just an upper, there is no paperwork to fill out unless you want to build a with a short barrel. [Which requires a $200 transfer tax in the United States.]

Some cling to the 6.8 SPC for an AR upgrade, but the 6.8 SPC will not munch through a tree like that .30 caliber can.  Pulled AP bullets bore through 3/8” plate with boring regularity. Rolling my own keeps me off the streets. While recovering from heart valve surgery, I made about 16,000 rounds (television only gets you so far!). I nagged all of my shooting buddies to try this round about a year ago, and now nearly all of them have converted.  I have a source of formed brass near Salt Lake, and I am picking up some 28,000 of them Saturday (not all for me!)  With the shortage of 5.56 now, I have stopped chopping my own brass.

Thanks for all of your excellent work! God Bless, – Paul S.

JWR Replies: Both 6.8 SPC and .300 Blackout do have their merits. But I must warn readers that they need to get their primary rifles squared away in standard calibers first. If you can afford it, then it is fine to get a spare upper for your AR chambered in an exotic cartridge. But be sure to stock up with plenty of ammo, since any exotic ammo will be very difficult to find in a post-collapse environment. Ditto for specialized magazines, to match. (The 5.45 x 39 and 6.8 SPC rifles require special magazines, but the .300 Blackout does not.) Most importantly, always retain your rifle’s original upper, magazines, and ammo so that you can reverse-migrate to 5.56mm NATO!

My personal approach for AR-15s and M4geries has been to keep them fairly standard. I did, however, but one spare 5.45x39mm upper receiver group for one of my M4s. I did so to take advantage of the profusion of Russian military surplus 5.45 ammo that comes in “spam” cans. I was able to acquire five 2,080 round cases (10 spam cans) of this ammo for about the same that I would have paid for 2,500 rounds of 5.56mm NATO. And since I bought all of it at local gun shows, I didn’t have to pay for shipping. This upper has provided some very inexpensive target shooting opportunities for my family.



Letter Re: A Primer on Guns for Survival

Mr. Rawles,
I would like to add to the shotgun portion of this posting. While we all like to have the latest high tech looter stopper, a trip to the used section of your local gun shop will yield some hidden treasures. You can have your 18.5 inch pump riot gun for a fractional price of a new one. Perusing my local large chain yielded a pile of old, but still serviceable pieces. Many are old department store guns wearing hideous looking chokes, but the guns were made by Remington, Winchester, Ithaca etc. Price ranged from $100 to $249, this included some autos as well. I have added to my home defense a few of these. With just an accurate measurement and a saw [or tubing cutter], you too now have a reliable riot gun. Many of these were lightly used, stored well and remain a gem in the overpriced gun market going on today. My local gunsmith recommends at least 18.5 inches for a barrel length. He attributes this to short government rulers or more controversial, shortcomings of certain government officials. – Jeff in Wisconsin



Two Letters Re: Bug Out Vehicle Advice

Mr. Rawles,
I have not seen the subject of a 2WD with a limited slip differential versus a 4WD addressed on your blog. If it has, I have missed it.

Most 4WD vehicles have “open” differentials and if one wheel on that axle spins, then the other stops. I have seen 4WD trucks spinning the driver side front wheel and the passenger side rear wheel and nothing from the other 2 wheels (dead stop). There are vehicles with limited slip front and rear but they are uncommon unless you special order them that way new or have aftermarket parts installed.

A limited slip differential will still transfer about 30% power to the non-spinning wheel thus giving you some traction. I had an old 1969 ford pickup when I was a teenager in the 1970’s and it had a limited slip rear end. Doing all the truely dumb things a teenager will do, I only got that thing stuck twice. Every other time I was able to get it unstuck on its own. Admittedly, the worst off roading I did with was cow pastures, fire break roads, and power line easements in Texas. (Gravel and dirt roads and mud.) I do not have much experience in snow, perhaps some other readers have info about it on this subject.

It is a LOT less expensive to purchase and maintain a 2wd limited slip differential than a 4WD setup and you get pretty close to the same traction capabilities in the real world unless you are seriously off roading or in snow. They also get better gas mileage.

4WD is better in extreme conditions, but day to day, pre-SHTF you are rather well served with 2WD and limited slip, depending on your climate and terrain.
Just my two cents worth, I have learned a lot here and want to contribute. – John in Texas

 

Mr. Rawles,
Several years ago I came across an article in a 4-wheel drive magazine (I can’t remember which one) where they tested a 2-wheel drive pickup versus a 4-wheel drive pickup. They concluded that a 2-wheel drive could go about 85% of the places that a 4-wheel drive could go if set up correctly with off roading tires, beefed up suspension and a winch. Since most 4-wheelers tend to add those features anyway, you’re still saving money because a 2-wheeler can be several thousand dollars cheaper than a 4-wheeler. Add to that the lower overall cost of operating it daily because of better mileage and no differential to wear out and a 2-wheeler is a viable option.

There were two caveats with the 85% percent number – Heavy rock crawling and serious mug bogging were definitely out. But then again they found that the person driving the 2-wheel drive truck tended to take a bit more care in picking their line because they didn’t have that feeling of invincibility that some get when driving a 4-wheel drive truck. – Matthew B.



Auction Update: PVS-14 Gen 3+ Night Vision Scope to Benefit C.R.O.S.S. Ministries

CURRENT BID is $3,000 (Bid by Reader D.J.G.)

Simply e-mail us your bids. I will post regular updates on the bidding. The final deadline will be Midnight EST on Monday, March 11, 2013. Thanks for your generous bids in support of C.R.O.S.S. Ministries.

We are continuing a benefit auction of a brand new AN/PVS-14 Gen 3+ Night Vision Scope. All proceeds (100% of your bid) will be donated to C.R.O.S.S. Ministries. (A very worthy Christian ministry that is sharing the Gospel of Christ in South Sudan. Their outreach method is unique: They are teaching rural villagers tactical marksmanship, water purification, and firefighting skills, free of charge.)

The monocular is one of these. (The same model that we use here at the Rawles Ranch.) These night vision scopes normally retail for around $3,600. (Although Ready Made Resources sells them at the discounted price of $2,695.) This monocular was kindly donated by Ready Made Resources, in cooperation with Night Ops Tactical.