Prepper fever has gripped the nation!  While I can find no exact numbers on how many of us there are, public awareness is gaining momentum. The National Geographic Channel has a television show on the subject, which showcases some of the most colorful preppers in the United States, and their approach is as varied as their personalities.   You Tube is full of videos teaching old time skills that were a way of life for generations before us, such as cooking beans from scratch, making fire with a bow drill, or raising and butchering rabbits for meat.  With a little spare time, one can learn handy new skills in minutes and a few hours practice, for a lifetime of application.

I have been a prepper in the making since my earliest memories around age six, and I am now in my fifties.   The Great Depression left indelible marks on my parents and grandparents. I grew up watching them save rubber bands into giant balls, reuse tin foil and little bits of soaps were treated as valuable as a new bar. “Waste not, want not” was more than a cliché in our home.  

Stories of how folks survived by bartering with neighbors, hunting for wild berries, keeping a garden and caring for livestock, were told by my grandmother with the flair of James Herriot, the resourceful country veterinarian who authored the best-selling book All Creatures Great and Small.   Granny loved to recount how she could catch and dispatch a chicken, de-feather and put it in the pot, all by the time she was eight years old!  Sadly most of us wouldn’t know how to do that if our life depended on it…and one day soon, it may.

 While I have never had to endure that kind of “work or don’t eat” ethic growing up, the lessons were not lost on me. My ancestors had survived a colossal event and I was acutely aware of that possibility in my own life as a result.  Like Scarlett O’Hara, in Margaret Mitchell’s Gone with the Wind, they would “never be hungry again”, and I didn’t want to either. The ‘seeds’ of survival had been planted in my young impressionable mind.

About four years ago those ‘seeds’ started to sprout in my imagination; I developed a keen desire to start an emergency supply of foods and necessities for my family. Concerns gleaned from watching news of a changing and suffering world prompted me to action…it was time to reap what I knew.   It started with one five shelf rack in a corner of our four car basement garage...then I had a wood platform built over an open dirt area to support a supply of water.  Added a few more rack systems here and buckets there, it would be alarming if it wasn’t so wonderful!  Everything kept growing until Hubby realized just how serious it all was when I announced I wanted to become a one car family to "make more room."  

Three quarters of our four car garage later, we have finally run out of room to add many supplies.   One of the characteristics of Prepper fever is that symptoms continually evolve. One rarely recovers once you catch it, the condition is progressive.  And so I looked into developing farming skills, keeping chickens, gardening, dehydrating food and canning. Stores of supplies won’t last forever; I will have to grow my own food to be viable for any long term event.  Granny would be proud!

You Tube is now my favorite story hour showing how to prepare for uncertain times.  I love to watch as preppers take me through their basements, closets and homes, displaying neatly stacked rows of every variety of canned goods, homemade preserves, pickles and gleaming jars of golden applesauce.  From Spam and Top Ramen to the gourmet food prepper I saw on the National Geographic’s Doomsday Preppers, I soaked it up.  Everyone has their own idea of what food and items to store.    And that's fine, personal taste and pocket book size will come together to create a food supply as unique as the individual who stores it.  

One day while reviewing some of my favorite food storage videos, I noticed a common pattern emerging.  All those neatly organized rows of jars, bottles and cans were sitting right up to and on the edge of disaster, literally.  Nothing between them and the hard floor below and it dawned on me, what would happen if there was an earthquake? 

In this day and age of escalating earth moving events, earthquakes are predicted to become more common place than ever.  From Bible prophecy to web sites that update world-wide seismic events daily, they are poised to become a reality to be reckoned with.  The problem with earthquakes is that they aren't a problem, until they are!  Suddenly, unpredictably so!   And we are told they can happen anywhere!

People that have never lived through an earthquake don't have it in their minds to consider the havoc that can be created in less than a minute.   I lived through the Northridge, California Quake on January 17, 1994, which lasted 20 seconds and left damages of nearly $20 billion. Our best friend had to vacate his now leaning “tower of Pisa” condo, which took nine months to restore, and he had to pay the mortgage the whole time!  My mother lost two irreplaceable antique glass birds off her piano, and every dish and tumbler we had crashed to the floor, most were broken, and all from behind closed cabinet doors!  It was a mess...but nothing we lost affected our survival...we were lucky. 

I went back and reviewed my favorite videos with a whole different thought in mind.  All of these precious stores of food, along with the time and money poured into their loving procurement and placement on shelves could be destroyed in mere moments.   What then?   Aside from the obvious, cleaning up the mess and taking inventory, stalwart preppers would go back to work and try to replace what was lost. 

But, what if we couldn't?  What if supplies were no longer available? What if inflation had taken hold and canning jars are now $12 each, instead of $12 a box?   Or maybe gasoline prices had gone sky high and there is no longer a budget to buy extra food for storage.  What if the season to grow fruits and vegetables was still months away?   Or what if hard times have already brought rationing?   All of these things are expected to happen at some point, to some degree, by those who prepare.  Maybe our supplies might not be replaced, to our liking, if at all.

So let's reverse the projector movie image of crashing jars and cans, in our mind, and have those smashed jars and dented cans now fly backwards onto the shelves, pulling themselves back together again!  Your goods are safe!   There's still time for you to take precautions against just such an event.   

In this article my wish is to inspire you to join me!  I didn’t want all my efforts go to waste, by way of an earthquake, for want of a few precautions.  Here are some of the solutions that that I have implemented in my own situation.  Not having many tools or skills to match, but handy with an electric drill, I have met my goals with minimal expense and effort.   I was also limited by having to work with the space configuration I had created...there was no going back and starting over.  

The first thing I did was tackle my six foot tall heavy steel shelf racks. We emptied and re-arranged them, placing them back to back to each other, so products would butt up against one another in the middle, and keep the inside items relatively safe.  This type of freestanding steel shelf system can be bolted to the floor, for added stability.  We did not do this, as we also have water issues in the basement with heavy rain of more than a week’s duration, but it is an option for those who don't have flooding problems. 

On the open side of each steel rack unit, I put up cross bars to block items from flying off.   The corner posts of the shelves have V shaped openings through which bolt heads can be attached.  I measured and purchased long boards, 2.5”x .75” x 6.5’, the width of the shelf from frame to frame.  I drilled two holes at the end of each board to correspond with the V slots in the corner posts, to allow for different positions.  Slip the four inch bolt through a hole in the board and spin the wing nut onto the threaded end.

Now position the board across the food items on the shelves to the desired position, and slip the bolt’s nut head into the V slot on the outer frame.  Because of the V shaped grooves, the bolt head sets in securely.  Spin the wing nut to tighten, and voila!  I had a secure stopping point in front of my valuable goods.   You can raise and lower the bar to any level and even put the boards at an angle, by just setting the bolt head in a higher or lower V slot, and adjusting the bolt in one of the two holes drilled in the board and securing the wing nut.  

Permanent blocking bars can be added instead, but the wing nuts make this system extra serviceable.  They spin off and on quickly and the boards swivel up or down to add product, or remove completely if needed. Even if you don’t have the metal type shelves that I do, placing long bars across book shelf style cabinets or wood shelves works just as well, just measure and drill accordingly.  Add more boards if needed, to accommodate tall products or stacked boxes. 

Blocking bars should be placed high enough that items cannot tip over them in an earthquake, but low enough to keep things from slipping through under the board as well.   Double boards usually fill most requirements for holding goods back.  I am still delighted with the design every time I use them, no carpenter skills needed and a very affordable solution.

I had a few areas where I could not use these boards, due to foundation poles and walls being in the way.  For these areas I tried bungee cords.  These do a marginal job and will hold things like toilet paper and paper towels back, but even stretched taut, they did not have the holding power of the boards.  Still, I do find them handy for temporary applications.  Multiple bungees can make a difference. The bungee ends are re-useable, so pick up a spool of the bungee cord, and you can tie your own later when they fray, which they will with time. I have found with one year of use outdoors, and about two years indoors they need to be watched or replaced.  

After the boards and bungees were in place, we simulated earthquakes, shaking and moving the shelves and decided keeping things from falling to the floor was just the first step.  I had originally stacked canned goods three or more high, as they do in grocery stores.   It looks nice and stays just fine, when not moving!   So I decided to box all cans and jars.  This also had the added advantage of preventing mold on some of the paper labels, as well as keeping like items together.  Marking the exteriors of the boxes with product, number and dates also makes a handy reference system for rotating boxes, as needed.   And they slide out like drawers (I remove the box lids), when I take down the wood bars holding them in place.  It’s still as easy to grab an item off the shelf as it ever was.

Take advantage of Club Stores bins of free boxes and use these for sorting your cans.  I like boxes that are double folded and have a nice polished finish on them, for example, the boxes that hold olive oil are great for stacking. This type seems to hold up well against moisture, which can be a problem in humid areas.  There are sizes to fill most needs.   Once you have identified boxes that fit and work with your products and spacing, fill and place them on the shelves. Select all of the same size, and you can stack them more easily. Test shaking these newly arranged boxes we decided glass items would need a little insulation from one another.  While most bottles and jars would probably survive a modest shaker, it would still be possible to lose glass to a long or serious earthquake, as they clinked repeatedly against each other.  

 Earthquakes can last a long time.  The Great Alaska Earthquake of 1964 had strong motion that lasted four to five minutes, with reports up to eight minutes.  With this in mind, I repacked all glass with a plastic grocery bag around each, twisting the top around the sides, to create bulk between them and close out dust and moisture.  Grocery plastic bags are still free at most markets, so start collecting them while they are available.  Some areas are actually starting to charge for them, I have seen added fees as much as ten cents a bag. I plan to recycle the bags in the future, for a variety of uses.  A simple inexpensive solution, no more clinking glass! 

Earthquake straps proved to be the solution for one tall wood cabinet holding miscellaneous goods.  At nearly seven feet tall, it was a concern for human safety as well as my supplies.  There are several styles of these straps on the market.  I didn’t want to drill holes in the cabinet, so I selected a design with peel and stick Velcro® brand hook & loop straps on one end to attach to the cabinet and a steel bracket that I mounted to a stud in the wall.  The straps are connected by a buckle in the middle that is adjustable for a snug fit.   I used child safety locks to secure the four doors, which could easily fly open, even if the cabinet would no longer fall.  I finished the whole project in less than an hour.  These two solutions I installed throughout my entire home, for added security and peace of mind.   

For smaller glass items and spices, I purchased zip style sandwich baggies, and sealed each container inside and arranged them in suitable sized boxes.  The baggies act as buffer for glass against glass, and will also come in handy for reuse.  Smaller boxes of spices were nested in larger boxes by type and use, so they could be organized behind the safety bars.  No shake, rattle or roll, with heavy handed rocking tests. Socks also work great, instead of plastic bags.   The jars won't clink and the socks can be recycled later for feet or rags.

 Taking inventory of my cooking oils, I was pleased to see I had amassed quite a supply by picking up a bottle each trip to the market.  If these were damaged in a shaker, I would have a mess I didn’t care to imagine.  I also realized I had a small fortune in future liquid gold here, so these needed some serious attention, quickly!   Each bottle was wrapped in adhesive bubble wrap (it's a wonderful product, sticky like post it notes, re-useable and tears to fit the size required) and arranged to fit snuggly in a five gallon plastic bucket.  I added oxygen absorbers to the bucket, and sealed with a gamma lid (screw top lids) so I could get to them easily, adding new oxygen absorbers each time I took out a new bottle.  There is also the added advantage of keeping them protected from light and air, which are time enemies of oil.

Buckets were also my choice for extra supplies of syrup, jam and other delectable glass jar delights whose loss we would mourn.   But to keep costs down, as buckets can add up, a more frugal method would be to store in boxes by alternating a plastic jar with a glass jar, to prevent clinking glass.  Peanut butter mostly comes in plastic jars, and jelly mostly in glass, although there are exceptions.  I rotate my peanut butter and jelly jars this way, and they are perfect "moving buddies" should things start to shake.   We tested vigorously, with no alarming sound of glass.  

When I first started storing bulk food in buckets, I had not yet discovered mylar bags.   I had put up quite a bit of Jasmine rice this way.  So I opened one of these buckets after three years of storage. The rice was still fragrant, dry and perfect, even though I stored it directly on concrete, which I have since learned is not a good idea due to moisture coming up through the cement. I now stack all of my buckets on pallets.  For the budget minded, free buckets can be had by asking at your local market bakery, and there are free pallets on Craigslist for the vigilant watcher.

I decided to repack my rice in mylar bags, inside their buckets.  This way if they should tip or fall in an earthquake, and the buckets crack open, the product is still intact inside.  If the bucket does fall and break, but just slide the mylar bag into another bucket with no serious loss of food. 

My spices and jars of dehydrated foods are kept in a book case type cabinet, with dowels as blocking bars.  I worried that some of the taller jars could topple over the dowel, and smaller spice jars could slip under, if they tipped over. I fixed this problem by adding small bits of quake hold to the bottom of each jar.  It is a brand name for museum putty, a non-toxic dough that secures the jar to the shelf.   After my experience with the quakes in California, I tried this product on decorative items I had around the house and it works great!  NOTHING with the Quake Hold fell in any earthquake after that, and I have been through several.   It is re-useable, just stick the jar back where you got it, push down and it holds, again and again.  Museums use it, it works! 

Since most of us don't have the luxury of unlimited space to make everything ground floor, some stacking may be necessary with buckets.  I arranged mine five high, before I started thinking safety and loss.  But I needed to know how they would survive a crash to the ground.  I set up an area with four by four buckets, stacked five high, there were 80 buckets.   Knocking them down I had a moment of hesitation, as it’s like sticking a balloon with a pin, awaiting the dreaded pop.  

To simulate how they might fall in an earthquake, we used six individuals to push some buckets with long handled tools from a distance and the rest of us pulled lines tied to handles, to get all to fall in the most spectacular fashion possible.   It’s not easy to knock that many buckets down, we discovered, and only the upper most fell, from the fifth and fourth level.  I was amazed that not a single bucket cracked or broke open!  I did gain confidence in their ability to do the job.  Even if some do break, if a real test comes along, the mylar bags are like a second line of defense that will hold things together.  

 Based on personal experience, I no longer stack gallons of water more than two high!  Water is heavy and I have lost some to eventual leakage, just from the weight of the top bottles over time.   I now only buy my bottled water still in boxes.  Grocery stores will order and hold them for you this way, if you ask.   The water you buy in gallon jugs on the shelf arrives from the shippers boxed, but are removed to be put on the market shelves.  

One item I will only keep on ground level is powered milk.  Mine came in six gallon super pails, with no mylar bags.  I chose not to repackage them, as they have oxygen absorbers in them, and the lids were all sealed.  If they fell from a high position and cracked, the milk powder would be flow freely.  Beans can be swept up and used after a good rinse, but powdered milk is fine and sticky, and at least some would be lost.  If you have canned milk at the LDS Canneries know what a mess it is to clean up, even when you are careful not to spill much.

Assess your supplies, and a logical order will dictate your storage needs.  If you have to stack higher than you like, consider placing soft landing items next to areas where taller buckets would fall.   Blankets, sealed in plastic vacuum bags, toilet paper and paper towels, bundled in large 55 gallon bags.   Also  the same bags full of market grocery bags.   I have one whole row of soft items stored next to my only six high stacked wall of buckets.  If they do fall, their landing will be softer and items below will also survive.

I feel my storage is now measurably safer than before I implemented these simple and inexpensive ideas.  Like food prepping, safety prepping is addictive. I will continue to imagine the worse, so I can prepare the best.  I look forward to viewing new You Tube videos showing some of these ideas, as well as others I didn’t use. The prepper community is resourceful and clever.  Whatever the skill level and budget one has to work with, I hope I have demonstrated that taking a little time and effort will pay off if and when the ground starts moving in a town near you!  . 

Dear Jim,
We have already seen how the largely bankrupt USA has dealt with the Hurricane Katrina disaster. New Orleans remains partially empty and its population is much lower. Those who had any money left when the hurricane was announced to hit. If they returned, it was to recover a few belongings and collect their insurance checks before ceding the property/ruin back to the FedGov/State. Surrounding areas where the Hurricane spent its fury have been abandoned. The wrecked 9th Ward of New Orleans was not rebuilt. Someday it will flood again, and this time with few people to complain, it will probably turn into a swamp and spin doctors will make it sound like this was a happy accident. The sad fact that the USA doesn't have the money to keep rebuilding poor people's homes when they get flattened by natural disasters is the NWO of our DMGS (Dreaded Multi-Generational Scenario).
 
Someday the New Madrid Fault will break again near Memphis, and the Midwest will be largely flattened like it would have been back in 1805, had it been built up like it is today. The aftershocks will rattle the Midwest for the following 80 years, since that's how long they had aftershocks Last time. There were earthquakes during the Civil War that were direct aftershocks following the New Madrid quakes. Stone/masonry tends to fall apart in quakes, depending on luck and positioning. There are places where the shaking is worse than others, and places where it is not as bad. This is complicated by lots of factors so luck determines who gets hit or missed. At least the Midwest has food to eat.
 
Someday the Big One will hit California. If it hits Los Angeles, the damage to the infrastructure and water supply will cost a Trillion Dollars to repair. California insurance companies cannot afford this. Neither can the State government, as the budget is not organized such things. [Some conjecture deleted, for brevity.]
 
If the Big One hits the San Francisco Bay region, the damages are likely to be worse and more expensive than in Los Angeles, since the San Francisco Bay Area is more expensive, more valuable, and more established in a smaller area. The bay itself has been landfilled in various places, and homes and buildings placed on that. These are expected to fail in a strong enough quake. Many did in the 1989 quake. Entire elevated freeways were destroyed by the shaking, and bridges damaged. And that was only a 7.0. The Big One is in the 8.6-9.0 range, much stronger. Imagine all the water, sewer, natural gas, and electrical power being torn up by the ground waves. That's trillions to repair, and years to repair it. The population can't wait that long. Many of the places hit would not have the money to pay for repairs, so most of the area would be abandoned, much of the old buildings bulldozed as unsafe, even if they go through the shaking somewhat intact, just because they have no public utilities. Nobody talks about costs in Hollywood disaster movies, or that those costs are so huge to rebuild that it stops making sense. The East is likely to announce that the disaster areas are mandatory evacuation zones, and all civilians are required to leave. This is about money.
 
Because we live in a time where money is largely concentrating in the 1%, and jobs are all going to China, massive unemployment means no tax revenue. Even if there's no lives lost in a disaster, there's no money to pay for rebuilding. With many mortgages underwater, walking away is the smart move, financially. The above scenarios are likely at some point in the future, inevitable really, just as Hurricanes keep pounding the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, and tornados rip up midwestern towns. At some point, people will be choosing between insane tax rates or leaving, and most will pack up a U-Haul with their surviving material possessions and go somewhere not ruined yet. When the Big One hits California, taxes for the state should go so high that it will probably be a good time to flee. Leave Big Agriculture to keep growing the food we eat. Just go somewhere else.
 
Your job is to recognize when the place you live stops making sense and to leave while the leaving is good. - InyoKern

Sir:
My husband came up with a great idea to store more items out of sight. He is slowly placing our buckets of storage food in the ceiling of our basement in between the floor joists. He cuts a couple 1x6 planks the proper length, and bolts them down securely [with lag bolts] them a few inches apart on the lower "lip" of the joist which is about 1/2", and places the bucket on top of the planks. Once he completes the drop ceiling, all food storage will be safely tucked away out of sight. Should we need the food, we simply need to remove the drop ceiling. Just make sure you create a cheat sheet of where everything is located! - T. from Pennsylvania

JWR Replies: That is a good idea, but I must mention one proviso: What goes up can come down, unexpectedly. To provide earthquake protection it is important to add a threaded eye bolt on each side of every bucket. Then select heavy rubber bungee straps of just the right length to provide a snug fit around the middle of each bucket.

Mr. Rawles:
The recent article about conducting a home earthquake audit reminds me of a preparedness step that I took: A little over a year ago I saw an automatic gas shutoff valve displayed at a professional plumbing store. After looking in the cutaway demonstration  valve , I inquired about the cost of the valve, which was around $100. I have kept a wrench next to the gas meter for years, but last year I had to commute 60  miles  away for school. Now with a new prepper mentality  , I wondered what would happen if a big quake did happen while I was gone. If it took me a week to get home,  only to find a home burned to the ground because of a broken gas pipe, I would be mad, and feel stupid for not protecting everything for  a paltry $100 valve.

I installed the valve and forgot about it, but  then it had an unexpected test just one week later. I was also having a very large tree removed (one that could crush half of the house). My mother and I were eating lunch when we heard and felt a large thud, as the tree trimmers felled the last portion of the tree trunk, which was about 12 feet tall. Not until the next day, when the hot water became very cool, did I realize the valve had in fact worked and automatically shut off the gas to the house. I would rather spend $100  now, than to lose everything and be covered by the world's best insurance policy. For those people that don't think they are in earthquake territory, I only need to remind you of the magnitude 5.8 quake  that hit Virginia last year, and the fact that 75% of quake related fires are caused by  unsecured and top heavy gas water heaters falling over and breaking the gas pipe.

Thanks again for getting the word out,  - Solar Guy

Hello James:
Attached is an e-mail I sent to my daughter.  Her boyfriend is from Honduras and she dreams of doing missionary work there.  I thought it may be of interest to some of your readership.  I left out a great deal of information on building site selection (her boyfriend already owns five acres) and foundations.  There seems to be differences in opinion regarding firmly anchored and sand-bed isolation between footings and walls.  Most of my information was gleaned from the book Technical Principles of Building for Safety (Building for Safety Series) by Coburn.

Dear X.:
I did a little bit of reading this weekend regarding safe house construction in earthquake and hurricane prone regions.  I thought of you since you might be spending significant amounts of time in that part of the world.  Some sobering pictures of what an earthquake can do to masonry structures (Italy) 

Key points for concrete block construction (very common in Honduras):
1. Don't build the house out of masonry, use wood which is lightweight, strong and flexible.....but if you cannot.....
2. Single story construction (probably the single most important thing)
3. Use thick blocks (at least 8" across).  Use good blocks (should ring when blocks are struck with hammer or another block, mortar should be mixed on-site, in small batches by somebody who knows his business.
4. Simple rectangular outline.  Long, skinny houses shake to pieces while those that are closer to square in outline stay together
5. Small rooms.  No room larger than 15' by 15' (5 meters by 5 meters)  (probably #2 in importance....especially for bedrooms)
6. Use concrete block for interior partition walls to tie exterior walls together.  See note below about corners.
7. Door and window openings small, minimal number and evenly spaced around the building.  It is advantageous to have the tops of the windows and doors at the same elevation (see note on ring-beams)
8. No window or door openings in walls within 3' (one meter) of an outside wall or inside partition wall
9. The strength is in the corners (see points 4,5 and 7).  Reinforce the corners with steel wire, mesh or rod laid horizontally in mortar as the walls are built.
10. Build with two ring-beams.  One even with the tops (lintels) of the doors and windows, one along the very top of the wall.  Ring-beams can be cast of concrete/steel rod or constructed of wood.  This is a picture of a structure with FIVE wooden ring-beams
11. Use a light-weight roof that is well tied together (plywood sheathing is recommended) but steel is OK.  See picture from line above.
12. Roof should be relatively steep, 30-to-40 degrees is recommended.  Flatter roofs can act like airplane wings and lift off more easily in high winds.
13. Roofs should not extend more than 24" past wall
14. Hip roofs tend to be most resistant to blowing off.  House with five ring-beams is also a hip roof house.
15. Put the bed in the middle of the room.
16. A decent article about how to make an existing house safer. 

We are survivalists who live on a hobby farm within The American Redoubt. In the 23 years we have lived in this region I have yet to feel the ground shake beneath my feet. That’s welcome news speaking as a former Californian who has been through two “big ones”. Yet, for whatever reason (the Holy Spirit, possibly) I began thinking about earthquakes two months ago. Because of this mind set, when three earthquakes, southeast of us, occurred in Utah around the 13th of February and the next day a magnitude 6.0 quake hit off the coast of Oregon. That got my attention.
 
The Oregon coastal quake had Seattle news outlets airing special segments about the possibility of a “big one” along the “ring of fire” that could cause substantial damage to cities like Seattle, Portland Oregon, Vancouver B.C., etc. They asked one seismologist about this prospect and his answer was, “the good news is that large scale earthquakes on this fault over the last 10,000 years have occurred on average about every 300 years”. “The bad news?” The reporter asked. “The last 'big one' on this fault was 329 years ago." Oh, that’s reassuring.
 
But we don’t live in earthquake country, we are hundreds (thousands?) of miles and a couple of large mountain ranges between us and “the ring of fire” so no worries right? No, I don’t think that is correct. We have never experienced TEOTWAWKI but we are preparing for that. I lived through an epic ice storm in an area not know for such things also. In fact, portions of the region were without power for 13 weeks from that ice storm. We also had a “fire storm” where none had ever occurred previously.
 
In the remainder of this essay I will:
 
1) Describe what an earthquake audit is
 
2) Review some of the findings of our earthquake audit
 
3) Review some of the mitigation steps we took to resolve our “audit deficiencies”
 
4) Share an analogy that I think is fitting
 
 
1) What is an Earthquake Audit?
 
I believe I coined the phrase “earthquake audit”. My version of an earthquake audit was to take a clip board, note pad and marking pen and go room by room; house, shop, outbuildings, everyplace. Using my experience being in quakes plus video’s I have seen of them and trying to visualize what would happen; what would go flying and what would be okay in a modest earthquake. My main focuses were looking “up” to identify things that could fall down with force and looking with an eye to the protection of mission critical items versus lesser important assets. For example having your AN/PVS-14 and Night Vision compatible EO-Tech sight go flying would be much worse than if that large pile of firewood gets scattered. This is mostly common sense it’s just a matter of actually doing it. I made a list of things that I observed to be problematic and then prioritized that list into actionable items.
 
2) What were the results of our own Earthquake Audit?
 
Frankly, we failed miserably. Here are three examples among dozens.
 
Our preparations are extremely organized and inventoried. We have eight of the Gorilla Rack shelving units to store items. I could not believe my eyes (although I should have because I am the one who put them there) when I looked up on the top shelf of one of the shelving units and saw all three of our pressure canners sitting side by side, not in boxes, resting nearly seven feet off the ground on an unsecured shelving unit.
 
The next “finding” was when I went into a food storage location (with a cement floor) and again could not believe my eyes. We purchase raw local honey from a vendor who sells them in half gallon glass mason jars. We love it as the honey is excellent and you get a half gallon jar to use when you’re done. Also the jars are temperature stabilized in case you need to heat the honey to liquefy it. There on the shelf at eye level was 18 half gallon glass jars of honey on an unsecured shelving unit with the jars right up the very edge of the shelf.
 
With even a minor rumble in addition to having no honey could you imagine the mess of nine gallons of honey and 18 broken half gallon glass mason jars in one big pile on the cement floor?
 
The last example was when I walked into the fuel shed. This was an accident waiting to happen. The fuel shed building is built over the top of an underground gas tank. The riser off the tank, 12 volt pump, filters and filler hose are inside the shed. Also inside the shed are shelves and items stacked on the gravel floor. There are metal gas cans, metal 5 gallon kerosene cans, plastic diesel containers a couple of metal 55 gallon drums and a dozen or so propane cylinders. The riser coming up off the underground tank was not protected at all and things were staked up all around it. It wouldn’t have taken much for things to have fallen on the riser likely breaking it. Wouldn’t it have been lovely to have gas cans and propane cylinders flopping about inside a metal walled shed with a severed riser attached to a large gas tank!
 
3) Mitigation Steps
 
All of these “deficiencies” had to be fixed. The pressure canners got put in boxes and moved into cupboards with locking doors. For the honey, I secured the shelving unit to the wall and purchased nice plastic totes with locking lids that would hold six half gallon jars each. A couple of layers of bubble wrap on the bottom of the tote then each jar individually wrapped in bubble wrap that was taped in place. The jars were placed in the tote and then shipping “popcorn” was put between the jars. Two layers of bubble wrap on the top then the lid of the tote was securely attached. The totes then were “strapped in” to the secured shelving unit.
 
The fuel shed got gutted and redone. The fuel tank riser and pump are now completely protected and everything in the shed is strapped down. This was done with 3/8ths x 4” eye bolts and six foot locking tie down straps.
 
This clearly isn’t rocket science its just taking the time to get it done. Generally speaking; Shelving units need to be secured to something. If not an adjacent wall, look up, is there something above to secure to? On one occasion I had two shelving units at a 90 degree angle to one another. One of the units could be secured to the wall but not the other. So, what I did was attach the units to one another where they met. At the opposite ends I ran a tie down strap to create a triangle from the end of one unit to the end of the other unit, this gave some good strength.
 
Watch for items that could fall on your head while you are in bed. And some items, there is not much you can do but pray. For example we have a river rock chimney that runs up 25 feet from the main floor through the ceiling of the second floor. I have not idea how strong it is but there is not much that can be done other than building some kind of cradle for it. So if it comes down in a quake it comes down. I guess that’s why you have wood stoves in the shop, master bedroom and back patio as backups. Guns and especially ones with optics need to be protected. My main battle rifle and main defensive shotgun are in metal hard shell cases strapped to something solid. Cushioning inside gun safes are a good idea. Are there items that could fall down behind a closed inward-opening door and block it closed?
 
4) One way to think about this.
 
The analogy to this line of thinking is nautical: Sooner or later we are all going to take a journey. Hopefully your journey will be on the good ship “Faithful Survivalist”. We don’t know when we will be leaving on that journey, where it will take us and what the conditions are going to be like along the way. Our sense is though that we are probably going to be leaving sooner rather than later and with the storm clouds we see developing off on the horizon we are not expecting “smooth sailing”. As with any wise captain heading off on a journey of unknown conditions, lets be sure that everything is lashed down; “Everything has a place and every place has a thing”. Because, if the going gets rough we don’t want important items sliding around on deck or falling overboard. Batten down the hatches, mates!
 
I don’t have a crystal ball and don’t pretend to know the future. I do know that the Holy Spirit put it on my heart to look at our survival stores with a new set of eyes and it was eye opening. I hope you do also and I hope this was helpful.

Hi Jim,
Living in an area that’s earthquake prone and overdue for a large one, I’ve spent a fair amount of time researching ways to limit any damage that we might experience in our home.  In 1994 the Northridge earthquake and the resulting fires were the cause for the creation of a device that, I feel, is instrumental to possibly saving any home with a gas-line.  It’s commonly referred to as a Northridge valve. 
 
Simply, it’s a seismic device that stops the flow of gas at the house meter should there be any seismic event over 5.2 on the Richter scale.  I got one and installed it myself for less than $150.  To anyone concerned about preparing for an earthquake, this would be cheap insurance.
Thanks for all you do, - John T.

2011 was a year of deadly and devastating tornados, and an earthquake that shook the east coast.  One of the largest tornados hit a suburb in my county in the Birmingham Alabama area. We are also only one state over from the New Madrid earthquake zone that starts in the Memphis area.  After taking several closer looks at the foundation and basement of our 50 year old house, I realized we were living with a false sense of security.

After researching online, I learned that in certain large events, mainly earthquake, but also from high winds, if the house gets shaken, the metal [pier] poles holding up the center of the house in the basement may or may not move in unison with the rest of the house above them that they are supporting.   Our house [has a conventional perimeter foundation and aside from the perimeter it] is simply sitting on those poles, and that is it. In large earthquakes, houses with basements can simply fall into the basement below them, if the support poles [or posts and piers] do not stay intact. I set out looking for an easy fix, and discovered nothing readily available on the market for this situation.   Maybe in frequent earthquake territory like California, there might be something on the market, but I did not find anything at the big box hardware stores or online. 

It appeared it was time to get creative. I am not in the construction business, but I’m guessing I do have a few more tools than the average household. My small shop has a miter-saw, table saw, drill press, chop-saw, and a small, bottom of line wire-welder. There are lots of people with way more tools than this, but this is a modest amount and I’m comfortable using them.   I spent a much of my time staring at the rafters and those metal poles, knowing there had to be way to tie them together.
  
The goal is not to keep the house from swaying, but rather, if the house is swaying, the poles sway in unison with the house. This way, when the house stops swaying, the metal poles are still in position as there were intended, holding up the center of the house.   The metal poles of our old house are 4-1/2 inches in diameter.  A double row of 2”x10” rafters run lengthways of the house, with 2”x10” rafters attached perpendicular to them.   These perpendicular rafters run from the center of the house out to the foundation. I would like to have been able to tell you that all of the rafters are evenly spaced, but they are not. Wiring and plumbing run along the bottom of the rafters, and it appears that plumbing had a major say-so in what rafters went where.   Sure, there are a few rafters that are evenly spaced, but quite a few that were placed very close to another rafter to accommodate the plumbing.

So, in staring at the poles and rafters, I obviously needed something to attach to the pole, and something that could be attached to the rafters, and each of these had to be able to be attached to each other.   Oh, and in my case, cost was an issue. To explain: most of those tools were bought before we had kids. Now my paycheck is spent before it gets home. And in this economy, it’s not getting any better either. I wanted to make the house a little bit safer than it was before I started, and yet still not break the bank. Besides being on a tight budget, time is precious these days too, and I can only work on this project on the occasional, rare, weekend free from other events begging for priority on the calendar.   

I knew I could drill holes in the wood, even if I have to use a right-angle attachment to do so, to mount some type of brace. As is ‘just my luck’, some of the closest together rafters were the ones near the poles I was going to be working on. But, what kind of bracing to use?   Flat aluminum or steel [stock] is readily available at the hardware stores, but in an earthquake, you never know for sure what direction the house is going to be shaking in. Nature has a tendency to keep that thing called the ‘epicenter’ to herself and let the scientist figure that one out later. Angle iron has support both vertically and horizontally. Luckily, and beloved neighbor, ‘Joe’ had given me some scrap angle iron before he passed away a couple of years ago. I still had the rusty angle iron in the shop, and I would need to clean it up with a portable electric grinder and a wire wheel attachment on a drill, but it was free, and I had plenty of it to do the job. I love to recycle, and re-using this free angle iron for my project is better than it getting sold for scrap.  I wanted to clean up the surface rust and paint it to roughly match the gray color of the poles. The drill press would eventually come in handy for the angle iron too. 
 
I did some research on eBay, and found that the do make U-Bolts in the needed size, but due to the size and weight, the shipping and handling were going to cost more than the U-Bolt. I discovered that one of the auto parts chain stores carried the 4-1/2” U-Bolt on their web site. The highway nearby has just about a half dozen auto parts stores within a 15 minute drive.  The auto part store that had the U-Bolts had them at a very attractive price, and they would ship them to your local store for free.  Bingo. This way I could get the U-Bolts at basically the same price as I’d seen on ebay, but without the shipping and handling costs.   The auto parts store only needed a couple of days to get them to the store.  This worked out great for me, because I ordered them early in the week, and wouldn’t be using them until the weekend anyway.  

The large 4-1/2” U-Bolts are made out of steel that is 3/8” diameter. I could drill 3/8” inch holes in the angle iron, to attach it to the U-Bolt, and additional holes to attach it to the rafters.  I wanted angle iron on each side of the pole, where-ever possible, for the push-pull effect that an earthquake might cause.   I also wanted to put two holes in each piece of angle iron where it attached to rafters, so that it would be rigid enough to move the poles with the house.   If I were to only put one hole in each piece of angle iron where it attaches to the rafter, it would like just be a pivot point and the angle iron could easily let the pole shift away from the center of the house.  

I wanted to paint the U-Bolt, and angle iron pieces, because they would be in contact not only with each other, but also with the metal pole. Although in this particular instance they are all steel, I’m not sure what kinds of steel they are.   I’ve learned that dissimilar metals that are in contact with each other can vastly increase the oxidation (rust) rate of the metal. As a side note, always be aware if you are using aluminum, steel, and any alloys, that are touching or are bolted to each other, as this can oxidation can become a real issue.   Don’t think that aluminum oxidizes?  Next time you are in a salvage yard, look at the chalky white powder on some of the aluminum parts you see is oxidation. It just doesn’t turn dark like steel does when it rusts (oxidizes).  

I made a dry fit of the U-bolt to near the top of the pole, about 3-4 inches from the top. I wanted to keep it near the top for leveraged strength, but not so near the top that if it did attempt to sway in an earthquake that it would try to jump over the top of the pole. Measured the lengths I needed for the angle iron to have a piece on each side, and cut them with the chop saw.  Drilled them on the drill press, then painted all of the pieces and let them dry completely. In keeping with the recycling theme, I was able to use up some old cans of [rust preventive] ‘primer gray’ color that matched the existing gray color of the metal poles well.   

The U-Bolts come with a bracket that fills in the gap of the opening at the open end of the ‘U’, and with the two nuts needed to hold it all together.   When measuring for bolts to use on the rafter, take into account not only the thickness of the rafter, but the thickness of your angle iron, the nut, and washers.   I recommend using washers on sides of the rafter, where the bolt head is and on the other side where the nut meets the angle iron. I even painted the washers, in case they are a different metal from the angle iron.   Who knows, a few seconds of extra painting could add years to the project and protect the old house for the next generation.  

Are there better ways to do this project?  Sure.  Are there more expensive ways to do this project?  Sure.   This just happened to be the best fit for my situation, of wanting to build a little more safety into a 50 year-old house, without having to take out a loan to do it. Maybe you can adapt some of these ideas into your next project.

Hi Mr. Rawles:
I want to share with you today’s events in Washington DC. I came home early from school and decided to go to the gym to burn off some of those summer pounds. As I was walking to the gym (two blocks away), listening to my iPod. All of the sudden I heard some crashing and screaming. Since this is DC, everything happens so I kept on walking. I finally realized that something was definitely wrong when I saw people pouring out from every building including a rather overweight man wearing only a bath towel  that was way too small for his waist. After finding an English speaker (I live in a mostly Hispanic area) I found out that it was an earthquake which apparently I did not feel. Immediately I tried calling my fiancée who was in our apartment but of course all the lines were busy. I sprinted back the one and a half blocks to our apartment and to my delight I saw her, on the sidewalk. She was barefoot, dressed in a bathrobe, with a pair of shoes in one hand and her Bug-Out-Bag in the other. I had never been so proud of her.  

All of it is thanks to the information on your blog that gave us food for thought and a foundation on which to build.   Sincerely, - B.K.

After the first few days, it was possible to get some idea of what had happened. The initial numbers of fatalities had been fairly low, and it was hard to know how many had survived in the coastal towns. As the phone systems and many roads there were devastated, a big effort was going to be required just to scope out the damage. Sadly, it became clear that well over 10,000 lives were lost. In terms of life in Tokyo, though, it was electricity and basic supplies useful during disasters that became somewhat hard to come by. The other major factor that seriously damaged daily activity was that many train lines were not running.

I went to work on the Monday after the quake, in many ways just to see how co-workers were doing and what my company was planning to do to deal with the disaster. Many had suffered property damage, but the real damage was to those who had relatives along the coast or near the Fukushima facilities. My wife had relatives in both of these areas, so she spent time on trying to figure out if everyone was okay. They were, but news that a cousin had been forced out of his house due to radiation was a sign that things were looking bad. At first, I wasn't so worried about Fukushima, and was far more concerned with getting more cash out of the bank and trying to get more supplies for possible disruptions. As it turned out, disruptions were going to become normal, and Fukushima was looking less and less like it was under control, or even within its expected disaster scenarios.

The week after the earthquake was one of verifying that property was undamaged and businesses working to figure out their workarounds for problems like employees who couldn't ride the trains or the big issue of just-in-time systems having almost no room for failure. And we just had dozens of failures, whether it be destroyed factories and roads, or a new reality of inadequate refinery capacity or electricity. In my case, the initial observation of property damage looked fine, but the shock meant that I missed something. This may be one of the lessons of the disaster. It's hard to judge things accurately when you've just had your life changed dramatically.

During this week, we tried to obtain many things, such as mineral water, and large orders were no longer possible. Small amounts, such as water in supermarkets, were still possible, but that was fading, and vanished once the story about radiation in tap water came out. And a troubling story with a major bank being unable to handle ATM transactions came out. On a personal note, my bank had old banknotes, which was a first. I'd always received new banknotes before. Tokyo Electric announced a rolling blackout system to cover for the loss of power due to the tsunami. This system exempted the central part of Tokyo, and the suburbs had to suffer. The real shock was hearing that the blackouts would likely last for years. A high-tech, just-in-time society cannot function efficiently with blackouts, and the harm to business will be off the charts if this actually goes through the Summer. The loss of electricity and nuclear contamination could end up costing dramatically more than the loss of infrastructure due to the earthquake and tsunami.

As the situation at Fukushima seemed to deteriorate, a rush to get out of the nearby areas occurred. Foreigners generally had a more pessimistic view of the situation than most Japanese, probably due to the different way news described things, so flights out of Japan became ridiculously expensive. Still, I know several Japanese who sent their families outside of Tokyo because they do not trust Tokyo Electric and the Japanese government. Like many others, I decided to spend a week in Osaka to see how things played out, but had too many things to take care of for at least a few more days. A particularly troubling thing has been that it was never clear what was going on, and there are many reactors in question, and even speculations about problems at other facilities. This leads to the question of when one should take emergency nuclear precautions, such as consuming Potassium Iodide. In my case, I had lots of iodine products, such as sea vegetables, as well as products that many recommend for protecting against radiation, such as miso soup. It was clearly time to consume these. It was also time to break out masks and to create a clean area at the entrance of the house. I had N95 masks, but nothing that could be expected to do much for radioactive particles. So part of dealing with this series of disasters was going to be research. (To be continued.)

Where We Were
In Kogoshima, in the southern part of Japan, residents know that when the active Sakurajima volcano finally erupts with its full force, they will most likely be killed. Some of them even know that it will be the quaking and the toxic pyroclastic flows that kill them rather than flowing lava.

Similarly, living just 15 miles from the heart of Tokyo, we have always been aware that Tokyo is past due for a major earthquake. When it hits, it will cause suffering on a scale that will make Kobe and Mexico City seem as if they got off easy. Yet, when the ground shakes, as it does fairly often, we've become complacent. Guessing how strong a quake was before the official report appears on television is one of our family games.

In Japan, you see, it's very easy to become nonchalant about disaster.

We lost our nonchalant attitude on March 11, 2011 at 2:46 p.m. Despite some intense shaking that drove my family outside for several minutes, we were, and remain, relatively untouched. Our problems are mere annoyances compared to the survivors in the northeast, but those annoyances exposed huge gaps in our disaster preparation and planning.

A few years ago, a major earthquake hit the Chuetsu region of Niigata Prefecture near where my wife is from. It caused substantial damage and shook radioactive water out of the spent-fuel storage pools at the nuclear plant in Kashiwazaki. As a result, we bought a survival kit consisting of a silver backpack, some food, some water, some non-stormproof matches, a first aid kit, a water carry bag and a small cutlery set. We added a bit more food, a bit more water, and some towels. Yet, when we ran outside during the quake, none of us thought about grabbing the emergency kit until the shaking was almost done. This was probably for the best as, although not even a single book was knocked off our apartment's shelves, the emergency kit was pre-buried under the detritus of life and school. In fact, I wasn't even sure at the time if it was in the closet or on the floor in front of the closet. If our complex had collapsed, I probably would have been caught in our first floor apartment looking for our emergency kit.

As a result, as we stood in the parking lot, we had no spare clothes, no money, no food, no way to make fire and no water. We didn't even have the keys to our car, which were hanging on the door. All we had in hand were our cellphones, which proved to be useless. During the Great Hanshin Earthquake in Kobe, and just a few weeks ago in Christchurch, cellphones had been a literal lifesaver for some people. Yet, in Tokyo they became, as described in Rawles Precept #3, like cars stuck in traffic as everyone tried to contact their loved ones. This meant we also didn't have any means of communication.

After we went back inside, we heard news about the tsunami and the reactors at Fukushima Number 1. I tried to assess our situation. We had a couple Maglite flashlights but few spare batteries. I had two Swiss Army knives and a Gerber multi-tool, but they were scattered around and would have been inaccessible after a collapse. We had no form of portable shelter. We had food but it was all old. We had bottles of water, but no way to purify water. We had no spare clothes ready for a quick escape. We had only one way to make fire and no small pans to cook with.

Nonchalance returned, however, and we tried to settle back into a normal life. Two days later, however, with rolling blackouts scheduled, I went online to try to get supplies. Batteries and flashlights were already sold out and I felt the first chill of concern creep up my spine. Also sold out, or delayed, were the Japanese versions of MREs. I tried to order several things, including AMK Spark-Lite firestarters, stormproof matches and a proper utility knife. Oddly, despite Japan's strange laws about knives (more on that later), the knife (a SOG Trident Tanto) arrived along with a waterproof match case and a roll of faux paracord. The entire rest of the order was cancelled and I was forced to order goods from the United States.

By the time the crisis in Japan was over, I figured, I'd be ready for it.

Where We Are
Two weeks after the quake we are much better prepared for it.

There have been compounding problems: rolling blackouts have forced people to take cars when normally they'd take trains. This and damage to a major refinery have led to fuel shortages. The government continues to issue garbled information about the radiation from the reactors without providing any context, which has led to a run on bottled water. We are fortunate that my wife's family own a farm and have been able to send us vegetables, rice and other goods. Which means we are also fortunate that the post office and private delivery services are still running. That said, it is still easier to buy steak and vegetables in our area than a flashlight and batteries.

Despite the fact that our neighborhood has not, to this point, suffered a blackout, we haven't gotten complacent. We have assembled a much more robust survival kit. We have one way to purify water (Sodium chlorite) tablets with one more, Aquamira Frontier Filters, on the way. We have three ways to make fire. We've updated our food and water supplies. We have emergency blankets, more flashlights and money and spare car keys hidden away.

Also, after being forced to walk six miles when the trains were abruptly stopped after I got to work, I now have an Everyday Carry (EDC) kit. I carry medicine and bandaids; some of the faux paracord and a couple carabiners; three ways to start a fire; a couple snack bars; water; a flashlight; and a phone card as, after the cellphones crashed, the old-fashioned phone booths were suddenly back in fashion. Just in case, though, I also carry a cellphone charger.

Knife and "Sword" Legalities
I would like to carry a knife; however, this poses some interesting problems. Japan, after a series of knife attacks, expanded its ban on swords to include carrying any non-folding knife with a blade longer than 2.36 inches (6 centimeters) “without a reason”. Going fishing is considered a valid reason to carry a knife but self-defense is not. (In fact, in Japan, people defending themselves against an attack have to be careful of using excessive force or they will get in trouble as well.)  A folding knife can have a blade up to 3.15 inches (8 centimeters) but the entire knife, with the blade extended, cannot be longer than six inches (15 cm). This means my new SOG and my Swiss Army knives are classified as swords and are not street legal. For this reason, I've also acquired a Leatherman Squirt PS4 which, nonetheless, has to be carried in a backpack or bag and not in my pocket.

Where We Hope To Be
In the future, our goal is to have a proper G.O.O.D. Kit. To accomplish that, we plan to buy a new and proper backpack for our B.O.B. The current one is not designed for a family of four and is not designed to be carried long distances. Also, it is bright silver with the Japanese words for “Emergency Carry Out Bag” in bright red letters. Although the Japanese have, with a few exceptions, been very calm in this crisis, this is only because in most areas food is still plentiful. I've seen the Japanese unleashed a few times, mostly during after New Year's sales, and it's best not to have something that attracts attention.

We are looking to acquire another good folding knife, some solar charged flashlights, a portable water filter with a pump, some cooking gear and some American style MREs. Despite the lack of space in our apartment, we also plan to stock a lot more emergency food and water. We still need something to serve as a portable shelter.

More importantly, though, we are slowly developing a bug out plan. We have enough supplies in our emergency kit to get by on, but we don't yet have a plan for what we will do in the case of another large quake or an evacuation order. What will we do if we have time to gather things before we leave and what will we do if we have less than a minute? We have yet to decide several small details and this puts all our other preparations in jeopardy.

For example, one detail we've yet to resolve involves shoes. The Japanese don't wear shoes inside the house and, because we sleep on the floor on a futon, we can't put shoes under our bed. The silver bag would be good for carrying shoes in case we can't get out the front door and have to switch to Plan B. Of course, since we don't have a Plan A, we need to do some thinking. We also need to make sure our two young daughters know what to do when and if the ground starts shaking again.

Also, as a foreigner, I found myself standing outside without a passport or any other form of identification and with no way to prove my wife was my wife and my children were my children. We now plan to scan all our important documents and keep copies on a thumb drive in the emergency kit.

All in all, we are finally prepared to face a disaster. It's sad that it took a disaster to get us into a survival mindset. We were fortunate, though, that the disaster didn't effect us before we were ready.

Days Two and Three I slept well the night of 11-3-11, which was good, because I hadn't the two previous nights. A premonition, perhaps? Like the day after September 11th, there was an eerie feeling everywhere. The weather was nice, at least in Tokyo, but a cold front was coming in from the North, so the folks near the Tohoku coast were going to be suffering even more. It was obvious that the damage was off the charts, but the television downplayed the likely deaths, and a big question was whether the government had learned from its poor performance during the large earthquake in Kobe in 1995. We didn't know at this time, but the unfortunate answer was "no". In fairness, this disaster was much more difficult to handle, but the whole world will be asking about the inability to get resources to the Fukushima plants ASAP.

In the morning, many stores were closed. When they did open, they were packed with folks buying everything that might come in handy for hunkering down. This was the last chance to get a lot of things. By the end of Day Three, many things were gone, and announcements were made on television that supplies would have to be rerouted towards the most damaged areas. At this point, most convenience stores and supermarkets resembled photos from the worst days in the Soviet Union, at least for most necessities. The power was reliable, and trains and subways started to return to some semblance of normality by the evening. There was no panic but it was easy to see that gasoline and types of food were not going to be available within days.

The news was focused on the immediate damage. Besides the tsunami, there was cleaning up the fires and making major roads passable and fixing train tracks. All kinds of equipment had to be verified, so disaster preparedness teams in businesses and governments went to work. This seems to have gone well, and the volunteer groups did a good job, but it seems that most groups are a lot more effective in local areas, and the hard-to-get-to areas were too devastated to do much more than try to go through what was left of their own houses. My wife wondered about volunteering, but there was no way to get to the hard-hit areas, and one would just be an extra burden by getting there.

Up to this point, things still looked manageable. Soon, though, the topic of electricity came up. A lot of Tokyo's power comes from nuclear plants, and those were near the ocean. The assumption was still that everything was under control. Wishful thinking. On the street though, the feeling was mainly that the economic future had taken a huge hit, not that a nuclear crisis was at hand. That was to come soon enough. And refugees from the impacted areas were coming in to stay with relatives or hotels, and some passed through on their way to western Japan, where no damage had occurred. For me, though, it was time to get more cash out of the bank and think about whether our plans to leave Tokyo needed to be expedited. (To be continued.)

Day One
Just another day for an American ex-pat in an office in a skyscraper in Tokyo, or so it seemed. There was a nice view in several directions, offering a chance to see a real panorama of the city. In just a few minutes, that view would include large fires and streets packed with cars and people walking. The reason, of course, is it was 11-3-11.  

The first inkling of trouble was a minor feeling of movement, and this lasted for perhaps a minute, and then things got worse. The shaking got to where it was time to not move, and then it was time to get under my desk. Finally, it was time to hold on to something to avoid being jerked around. This lasted for many minutes, far longer than any earthquake I had experienced in California or Japan.  

After things settled down a bit, we all got up and tried to figure out what had happened. Had we been at the epicenter of this? A co-worker said an initial reading was that it was 7.9 on the Richter scale. Bad, but not enough to expect the problems that were to come. Unfortunately, the numbers went up over the next hour or so, and the big shock was that television showed a tsunami wiping out a town after 30 minutes or so. About the same time, I noticed many big fires in the distance, and pointed them out to my co-workers.  

Right after the earthquake ended, the speakers in the building announced the earthquake and that the elevators were not in service. Phones were not working, but the power was. It was a tough choice, walk home for hours in Winter, along with millions, or wait and hope that the trains and subways might gradually return on a limited basis. As the epicenter was not that near Tokyo, I figured it was worth waiting a while to see what happened. But things got worse. This seems to have been a repeating theme throughout this. One problem seems to impact the next, overburdened system.  

For better or worse, I decided to wait for a few hours, and put up with the aftershocks. I also wanted the phones to come back so I could see how my wife was. The phones came back in a limited way after ten minutes or so, but not cell phones, which had troubles for many hours. But I could not dial out. Many co-workers or their neighbors had suffered some damage, but the real concern was closer to the epicenter, and along the coast. My wife had relatives impacted by both the tsunami and, later, the nuclear issue. The good news was her relative was evacuated from his factory before the water swept in. The bad news is that the economics of this tragedy are going to be practically at the level of fighting a war on your own soil, and this fellow is unlikely to have a job for quite some time.  

So the news got worse and worse, and many systems already went into a very limited mode. If you wanted something, it was probably a good idea to think about getting it then. Of course, it you got closer to the dramatic damage, it was too late, as most stores were damaged, and everyone was now working on dealing with issues of life and limb to care about keeping a store open that sells blankets for example. And it is a safe bet that a lot of folks were kicking themselves later about not having the supplies they needed. Not just for themselves, but for family and friends that had had their houses destroyed, and for those trapped en route on some trip.

My family did an inventory that night, and we discovered that our biggest flashlight was too old and no longer worked properly. It was probably time to re-read SurvivalBlog's guidance on preparedness at that point. The good news is that my workplace gave out a survival kit with water, a high-tech blanket, flashlight, and a few other things. We also had candles and a mini-flashlight. Not that the power went out yet. That was later, but, if the quake had been closer, it is reasonably likely that even downtown Tokyo would have been dark and cold. All things considered, the supplies of food and medicine were sufficient, but it was obviously time to buy more. I had been more concerned with an economic or currency disaster than what happened, but still slept better over the next few days knowing that we had months of supplies.  

That night, I felt a bit seasick, but not so bad that it was a real problem. But the bigger problem for most of us was shock. Those who had family or friends in the worst-hit areas had a tough time keeping their minds on further preparations, which might be another lesson in why it is good to prepare ahead of time. I do not think I was thinking clearly on 9/11, and not on 3/11, either. The good news is that disaster drills and preparation are common in Japan. This made many things go smoothly. I suspect an inadequate number of disaster drills are done by local governments or businesses in the US. As an example, a very strong hurricane hitting Miami is just a matter of time. Are they better prepared than the one a couple of decades ago?

In any case, the systems in Tokyo went smoothly. I do not know about closer to the disaster area. It seems that they went reasonably well, but the strength and speed of the tsunami, along with the lack of much time, really made the fatalities a lot worse than was expected. People go through towns saying that everyone should evacuate to higher ground after earthquakes, but those in poor physical condition may choose to ignore the warning, and perhaps some wanted to clean up some of the broken jars and such before evacuating. Unfortunately, they did not have a minute to spare.  

Turning on the television that night, it was mentioned that the nuclear plants at Fukushima had been hit hard. This was to become a topic for later. At the moment, fires had to be put out, and the injured taken to hospitals. Nuclear plants have many backups, and they would not be built near oceans if they could not handle tsunamis, right?   (To be continued.)

Hello James,
It is with a heavy heart that I watch the nuclear incident unfold in Japan. I am watching my nightmare come true, and I pray for the safety of the people in Japan. As you know, my article that was published in your blog last September was primarily written to alert the public about the possible EMP effects on nuclear power plants. While the initiating event may have been different, the results of the loss of all AC power at the site results in virtually identical consequences. Events are playing out very similarly to those that I had described. There are certain differences, however, since I had described the events for a pressurized water reactor (PWR). The reactors involved in the accident in Japan are boiling water reactors (BWRs).

I would like to take the opportunity to both alert your readers about the truth of what is happening and also dispel some rumors and incorrect assumptions regarding the events at the nuclear plant in Japan. I have seen many “talking heads” on the news this past week that have virtually no nuclear background and frankly are not qualified to be making assumptions or assertions.

The Fukushima Units #1 through #5 at Daiichi are older GE designed BWR-3 and BWR-4 Mk.I, boiling water reactors that were all built in the 1970's.  I used to design fuel for these types of reactors when I worked at GE some years ago.  In general, I would say that BWRs are actually inherently safer than PWRs.  When I was at GE they used to say that BWR stood for "BEST Water Reactor."  This older design, however, is not the best design for accident scenarios.  It has a torus or "doughnut" for the suppression pool and it is limited in its capacity.  Also, these containment structures are smaller than later designs, and generally considered not as robust.

I found these excellent papers on the internet about Japan's BWR reactor designs:

http://www.ansn-jp.org/jneslibrary/npp2.pdf

http://www.ansn-jp.org/jneslibrary/BWR_Safety_Design.pdf

Also, this from Wikipedia regarding the older BWR-3, Mk.I containment: 

"Though the present fleet of BWRs are less likely to suffer core damage from the 1 in 100,000 reactor-year limiting fault than the present fleet of PWRs are (due to increased ECCS robustness and redundancy) there have been concerns raised about the pressure containment ability of the as-built, unmodified Mark I containment - that such may be insufficient to contain pressures generated by a limiting fault combined with complete ECCS failure that results in extremely severe core damage. In this double worst-case, 1 in 100,000,000 reactor-year scenario, an unmodified Mark I containment is speculated to allow some degree of radioactive release to occur. However, this is mitigated by the modification of the Mark I containment; namely, the addition of an outgas stack system that, if containment pressure exceeds critical setpoints, will allow the orderly discharge of pressurizing gasses after the gasses pass through activated carbon filters designed to trap radionuclides."

I found this document in the NRC reading room.  Basically, a Station Blackout Event (loss of off-site an on-site AC power), is perhaps the worst event that these types of BWRs can face. 

Here is an excerpt.  I added the bold type:

"For station blackout accidents, containment systems will not be functional and the drywell floor will often be dry, leaving the plant susceptible to drywell shell melt-through. In addition, the reactor vessel will normally be at elevated pressure, which increases the containment loads at vessel breach. This means that station blackout accidents pose a severe challenge to Mark I and Mark II containments, and therefore, these accidents are often important contributors to the frequency of containment failure."

I will say that even though the 9.0 magnitude earthquake was beyond the design basis of the Fukushima 1 nuclear plant, the plant actually weathered the earthquake itself quite well and shut down as designed. It is the tsunami that caused the bulk of the problems that the plant operators now face.

The backup emergency diesel generators actually started as designed and began to power the auxiliary pumps designed to circulate cooling water in the reactors. However, the tsunami arrived at the site and overflowed the seawall that was created to protect it from a tsunami. The height of the tsunami was also beyond the design basis of the plant. It is my understanding that the seawall was about 6.5m tall, and the height of the tsunami was above 7.0m. The tsunami destroyed the diesel fuel tanks for the emergency diesel generators and then flooded the below ground switchgear rooms that contain the diesel generators themselves. Therefore, the diesels stopped running about an hour after they started.

The loss of both AC and DC power and the flooded switchgear room also meant the loss of most of the instrumentation that tells the operators what is going on inside the reactors. (Imagine trying to drive your car blindfolded.)

To their credit, the operators at Fukushima understood their predicament. They quickly made the decision that they had an emergency on their hands. They also made the decision to pump sea water into the reactors to stem the overheating cores. This decision was a fateful one, and one I am sure was not taken lightly, since it meant that they understood that the reactors would be permanently ruined. Their once multi-billion dollar asset was turned into a multi-billion dollar liability. It is my understanding that the sea water was pumped via fire suppression system diesel pumps and fire trucks. However, these pumps cannot generate the kind of pressure that was needed to overcome the rising pressure inside the reactor.

Without the added cooling water, the reactor units experienced what is known as a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). Water level fell, exposing the fuel rods. This lead to fuel damage and release of radionuclides into the containment.

Water levels continued to drop, uncovering the reactor cores by varying amounts. The exposed fuel rods caused the temperature and pressure to rise rapidly, generating steam.

Operators were forced to vent pressure from the reactors. This lead to very high pressures in the containment structures. It is my understanding that pressures inside the containment structures reached about 120 psi, about twice the design basis. This could cause the containment structures to fail.

This steam reacted with the zirconium fuel cladding to form hydrogen. It is this hydrogen that is believed to have caused the explosions seen in reactor #1 and reactor #3 buildings. It may also be responsible for what may be an explosion that potentially has caused a crack or leak in the containment vessel in Unit #2, perhaps in the region of the suppression pool.

In Unit #4, there were no assemblies currently in the reactor vessel. All assemblies had been off-loaded into the spent fuel pool. It should be noted that all spent fuel pools at the Fukushima Daiichi plant have not been properly cooled since all power was lost. Just like fuel in the reactors, spent fuel also retains heat for a long period of time and must be cooled. There was also an explosion in reactor building #4, and a fire was seen. It is not yet clear what the cause of the fire was or if the fire has actually been put out. There have been conflicting reports on this issue. However, it is my opinion that the fire may have been caused by the interaction of the zirconium fuel rods with the steam in the then boiling spent fuel pool.

Measurable amounts of Iodine and Cesium have been detected even more than 30km from the plant, which indicates that fission products have been released and that fuel cladding has been compromised for at least some of the fuel rods. Radiation levels inside the control room reached over 1000 times normal.

Radiation levels around the reactor buildings are currently too high for personnel to respond properly to ongoing issues such as possible spent fuel pool fires. On Tuesday, radiation levels just outside of the reactor buildings had reached a high of 400 milliseverts (equal to 40 REM). Twelve to fifteen hours at this level is a fatal dose of radiation. All but essential operations personnel were evacuated from the plant site as result of this level of radiation.

Currently, the concerns revolve around two issues, 1) the status and integrity of the containment vessels surrounding the three reactors that were operating, and 2) the status of the spent fuel pools. In fact, since the reactor buildings are no longer intact, and there is no containment structure surrounding the spent fuel pools, it is actually the spent fuel pools that are the greater danger.

It is clear that there has likely been fuel damage in all of the operating reactors and possibly also in the spent fuel pool in reactor building #4. Spent fuel pools in reactor buildings #5 and #6 are also still heating up.

We have seen continuing variation in measured radiation levels at the plant. This may be because of fluctuating winds blowing the airborne particles around to various directions, sometimes toward detectors and sometimes away from them.

It should be noted that this event is far from over. As of Wednesday morning, Japan time, white smoke or steam was coming out of the #3 reactor building, and higher levels of radiation were being observed. It is unclear if the increased levels of radiation are coming from reactor #2, where the containment vessel may be compromised, reactor #3, from which steam or smoke is being observed or reactor #4, where fire was observed yesterday. There are large holes in the side of the #4 reactor building which may have been caused by the fire or from the explosion of hydrogen. The spent fuel pool in reactor #4 may also be boiling or may be on fire. This fuel in the spent fuel pool will melt if the water boils away and it may even catch fire. Preparations are being made to inject water into this spent fuel pool as soon as possible. Helicopters from the Japanese Self-Defense Forces (SDF) have already attempted to drop water from the air into the spent fuel pool in the Unit #3 reactor building.  Attempts to use water cannon from police riot trucks apparently failed due to the inability of the personnel to get close enough to accurately place enough water into the desired location.  However, special fire trucks used to put out hazardous aviation fires were successful in getting at least some water into the Unit #3 reactor building.  How much of this water actually made it into the spent fuel pool is not clear.  Certain Japanese experts have declared this as “somewhat effective,” since steam was seen rising from the building and the levels of radiation around the unit supposedly dropped very slightly, but the volume of water required to completely re-cover the fuel rods is higher than what has so far been sprayed or dropped onto the site.

It should be noted that this is an unprecedented situation. Japanese officials are struggling to contain and resolve this situation. Lack of functioning instrumentation is hampering both interpretation and mitigation of this event. This is event will go on for many weeks, if not months.

TEPCO has now started efforts to restore high voltage power lines to the stricken plant. This would be the best chance to regain control over the situation, by restoring AC power to the cooling systems.

What everyone wants to know is, what are the best case and worst case scenarios and other possible outcomes?

The best case is that TEPCO operators regain control of the plants by adding adequate cooling water to the reactors and the spent fuel pools and the containment vessels remain intact. There will still be a huge cleanup effort required, and the plant will never operate again. This event will still last for many months as removal of the fuel at least from the spent fuel pools must occur (since the spent fuel pools are now exposed to the environment) and most operations will initially need to be done remotely due to the radiation levels. The cost of even this best case will be in at least the tens of billions of dollars, and may be in the hundreds of billions.

The worst case is what everyone fears, but those in the know don't want to talk about. Officials are all trying to put on a good face and spin things in a positive way. However, the worst cases are these:

1. One or more of the operating cores meltdown, the containment vessels fail, and at least part of the contents of the contained fuel is released into the environment. This would be a disaster exceeded only by Chernobyl. Chernobyl is still a worse disaster than this, since that reactor had no containment at all. I believe that it is still likely that the containment vessels will contain most of the radioactive fission products.

2. All of the fuel assemblies in the spent fuel pools, which have no containment structure, either melt or catch fire, and release much of their contained fission products into the environment. This is an absolute worse case scenario, and locally could even be worse than Chernobyl, since the volume of fuel contained in the spent fuel pools exceeds the volume contained in any one reactor core. However, since there has not been a large explosion at the site that has lofted large amounts of radionuclides into the air, the area which will be affected is likely to be much smaller than the area affected by Chernobyl.

People are asking if a similar accident could happen in the USA. The honest answer is yes, but it is not nearly as likely.  Many lessons were learned as a result of the accident at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania, and modifications were made to all US reactors as a result of these lessons learned.  The east coast of the USA is not generally prone to tsunami. There are only two reactor sites on the west coast of the USA, the plant at San Onofre in southern California and the Diablo Canyon plant, located near San Luis Obispo.  Of these two, the San Onofre site is perhaps the more at risk.  The Diablo Canyon plant has its critical systems far above the level of the ocean. Per haps the most vulnerable sites in the USA are the St. Lucie plant on the east coast of central Florida, the Turkey Point plant, south of Miami, and the Crystal River plant, on Florida's west coast. The most likely risk to these sites is hurricane storm surge. Hurricane Andrew in 1992 greatly affected the Turkey Point power plant and that event became the NRC standard for hurricane storm events and Station Blackout events.

There has been a run on potassium iodide and potassium iodate pills in the USA as a result of the event in Japan. Let me dispel some misconceptions and alleviate some of the fears of your readers. How radiation (or rather, radioactive particles that give off radiation) travels is highly dependent upon the direction, speed and altitude of the prevailing winds, and the weight and size of the particles. The closer to the area of the incident that you are, the more likely that there will be particles which fall to the ground in that area.

Californians have nothing to worry about from this incident in Japan, and anyone there who purchases KI tablets for this event is wasting their money. Any possible radiation that might reach there would be so diluted and dispersed by the time that it arrived that while it may be measurable, it will have virtually no health effects.

Also, the event at Chernobyl involved an explosion that lofted particles much higher into the atmosphere than anything that has so far happened in Japan. While there were apparently several hydrogen explosions in Japan, these apparently did not contain significant radionuclides, as the reactor containment structures were at that time still intact.

Even the fire in reactor building #4, which had assemblies only in the spent fuel pool, did not have a large explosion. Therefore any radioactive particles that were released from this fire will likely be deposited much closer to the site itself and are not likely to travel very far before falling to the ground. The latest radiation readings at the site boundary are currently only between 2 to 3 millirem per hour. This is not a significant dose rate, and workers could work in this environment for many days or even weeks without experiencing any radiation symptoms. (See the NEI web site for the latest updates.)

At this time, prevailing winds seem to be taking any particles directly out to the open ocean due east of Japan. I see no cause for alarm for any US mainland state (or even Hawaii).

Calculations have been performed which show that the area of maximum danger area is 50 miles or less, and safer areas would be in the 100 to 200 mile range. Beyond 300 miles from the site, I wouldn't be concerned. If I were the Japanese officials, however, I would recommend extending the evacuation zone to at least 50 miles.

We have seen how significantly that not just Japan but the world has been affected by these events. While panic has generally been averted in Japan, and people there are behaving in an orderly manner, there have still been shortages of food, water, fuel and other commodities. Many people have been displaced from their homes. Financial markets have been roiled. There is even a shortage of salt now in stores in China, as people there are [mistakenly] afraid that the sea will be affected and the sea salt which they obtain from the sea will be contaminated!

All of this from an incident at just one nuclear power plant.  What would happen if this incident happened in the USA?  What if it happened at dozens of nuclear plants at the same time?  What if communications, banking, power, water distribution, sewage treatment, internet access and transportation were all crippled at the same time?

I would like to again emphasize the point that an EMP event resulting in an extended grid down situation could cause a very similar event. There is only adequate diesel fuel on site to power emergency diesels for 7 days for most commercial nuclear plants in the USA. After that, you are in essentially the same situation as the Japanese find themselves - lack of power to provide any cooling to either the reactors or the spent fuel pools. Imagine if this event were to happen at multiple sites in the USA simultaneously!  How to mitigate this? One way is to ensure that additional diesel fuel and spare parts are available at all commercial reactors.  Diesel generators and their fuel tanks should be shielded and protected (many reactors in the USA have already done this). Another is to pre-stage diesel electric locomotives and a train load of diesel tank cars that could be brought to each reactor site in time of emergency (most reactors sites in the USA have a railroad spur). Diesel locomotives are very robust against EMP, and could act as an emergency generator.  There is also a petition that is now before the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) which recommends certain modifications to nuclear power plants to ensure their continued safety in the event of an EMP event.  Write to them and urge them to take this petition seriously!

What is the best way to protect against EMP or a catastrophic infrastructure collapse? Write your Congressman and urge them to join in the passage of the SHIELD Act! The EMP Commission has already outlined what can and must be done to protect our national infrastructure from catastrophic collapse. I urge that these recommendations be carried out with all of the swiftness that the nation can muster. Protection of the grid is the best defense. Sincerely, - B.Z.

Dear James,  
I just wanted to alert you to the possible impact of what is actually happening at Japan's Fukushima nuclear power plant.  The grid has gone down, and it appears that the emergency diesel generators have failed.  There is apparently no off-site or on-site AC power.  This is very similar to the scenario that I outlined in my article posted last September in SurvivalBlog (except for the precipitating event for my article described an EMP event).  We have a potential disaster worse than Chernobyl in the making.   In fact, even the mainstream media is now taking note.  Here is a blog article from today on Forbes that describes the possible catastrophe in the making.   I hope that this will inspire some of the people who said "that could never happen" to sit up and take notice.  I hope that more people will "wake up" and start to prepare for what really COULD happen here.    Thanks again for all that you do.   Sincerely - B.Z.

James,
I just finished watching an NHK World video of the tsunami wave rolling across farmland in Sendai, Japan.

A few things jumped out at me as I looked at the smaller details:

Several cars can be seen stopping on the roadways, turning around and trying to flee in the opposite direction when the drivers see that the wave has engulfed the road in front of them.  In one case, a driver can be seen evacuating his car and attempting to outrun the wave on foot.  I lost count of the number of people who were running or driving 100 yards or less from the approaching wave.  It was a somber moment to realize that some of those people I saw were likely overtaken by the flood and perished.

As the wave tore down houses and farms, the announcer mentioned that the earthquake had hit just an hour and ten minutes prior.  I was reminded how quickly disaster can strike and shocked at how many souls were still standing there when the first waves hit.  This is in a country with some of the most sophisticated and expensive earthquake and tsunami preparations in the world, and still the mass of people disregarded the warnings.

I watched one scene where cars were lined up trying to navigate down a road, again with the wave rapidly approaching from the rear.  Many drivers simply waited in line for the cars ahead of them to move.  A few drivers wisely decided to ignore the local traffic laws at that moment and cut over into the oncoming lane which was devoid of traffic (who wants to drive toward a tsunami?)  Amazingly, many drivers just continued to wait in line while those behind moved to safety.

Lesson: Make your G.O.O.D. plans and execute them at the first hint of danger.  We all theoretically know how quickly situations can disintegrate, but these videos are proof.  I'd rather have to come home and unpack than to be helpless because I waited a whole hour to see how bad it would get.

It's sad to see such loss of life and to know that so much could have been avoided. - JCW

Dear Mr. Rawles,
My phone rang sometime after 4 A.M. After rousing myself from bed I heard a message from the local sheriff recommending a voluntary evacuation due to incoming tsunami. I woke my wife. When I looked at the clock I discovered I had two minutes before the tsunami hit. Not enough time to get to higher ground. Thankfully,  in southern Alaska the tsunami was tiny. However, it was a literal and figurative wake-up call. If it had been more serious my family and I could have been swept out to sea. I calculated that I had 7 minutes from the time I heard the message to the tsunami’s impact.

My family was lucky. I do not plan to rely on luck again. Every family member will soon have a b.o.b. near the door. We will practice evacuation.  I plan to run several drills in the middle of the night. I was surprised how slowly I moved and how sluggish my thinking was at that time of day. I read survivalblog everyday, but I did not take concrete steps that are necessary to protect my family.  I write this to hopefully remind others that it is not enough to know what to do in a disaster you must practice and have your gear readily accessible. You never know when the time will come for you to grab what is available and flee. Thanks, - T.A. in Southern Alaska

Let’s be honest. Thinking about the end of the world is kind of fun. If it weren’t, there wouldn’t be so many post-apocalyptic novels, movies and television shows. Preparing for a relatively slow-moving Armageddon like a civil war or pandemic demands a lot of shopping which is an enjoyable pastime.

However, as the grieving citizens of Christchurch, New Zealand attest, the most likely threats are also the most sudden, the least glamorous, and not fun at all. TEOTWAWKI may or may not happen in our lifetimes, but almost everyone has to deal with a natural disaster at one time or another.

While all natural disasters can be intensely destructive, none gives less warning than the mighty earthquake. Even such terrifying Acts of God as tornadoes and volcanoes give some signs of their impending arrival; earthquakes do not. According to a friend at a local university’s Geology department, the most sensitive seismic instruments currently in use give no more than five minutes of warning of a major earthquake: enough time for the Geology department to seek cover, but not enough for them to warn anybody else.

Like most people who live on “the coasts” of North America, I live in an earthquake zone. In my city, it’s not a matter of “if” an earthquake hits, but “when.” Troublingly, we’re actually several decades overdue for a major quake. Under normal circumstances, it’s easy to marginalize this threat, but the devastation in Christchurch underscores just how vulnerable those of us in metropolitan areas are to a severe seismic event.

Based on what happened in New Zealand (which, unlike Haiti, had fully developed, modern infrastructure), I have attempted to glean as many useful lessons as possible about the realities of urban earthquakes, and to factor those lessons into my overall disaster preparedness planning. Since an earthquake represents somewhat of a worst-case scenario, I believe that my conclusions would be useful for anyone interested in preparing for a situation that might leave him or her cold, wet, hungry, thirsty, injured or in the dark.

First, a disclaimer: I am not a veteran survivalist. I’ve lived through a major hurricane and its aftermath, and I’m highly motivated to do everything I can to ensure that my loved ones and I are at least in a better-than-average position when the next unpleasant event happen. But, when it comes right down to it, I am a moderately well-informed, largely untrained, middle-class, city-boy, living with a wife, two (soon to be three) kids, a dog and two cats in a 900 square foot home. I don’t have the cash, space or know-how to implement much of what is suggested by preparedness experts. I’m learning fast, but I’m not there yet. Therefore, since I have no reason to believe that the Schumer will wait until I’m ready before flinging itself at me, I have developed a somewhat unorthodox approach to preparedness. I don’t claim that it’s better than anyone else’s system, only that it works for me, and that it might work well for some others. More about that in a moment.

First, let’s look at the bad things that happen during a severe (Richter scale 6 or higher) earthquake:

- Collapse of numerous buildings, roads and bridges, as a result of shaking and liquefaction (soil with poor drainage can basically turn into soft mud during an earthquake);

- Multi-car accidents, bus crashes, etc.;

- Immediate spread of uncontrolled fires, as a result of damage to electrical and natural gas lines;

- Severe flooding caused by tidal waves and cracked water/sewer pipes;

- Large dust clouds from destroyed buildings.

During the actual quake, there’s not much you can do, aside from try to get under a table or doorframe if you’re inside. [JWR Adds: Tables get squashed. As my friend Paul pointed out, the current advice is that the best survival location is to lay next to a non-compressible object. Stacks of paper or books are good--anything that is truly solid.] Or pull your car over, if you’re on the road. The host of “Man vs. Wild,” when asked for advice on earthquake survival was quoted as saying “The truth is, a lot of it is luck.”

The worst-case scenario would be that this would happen in a coastal city, during a weekday, in winter, at high tide. It is especially important to teach your school-age children to ignore a fire alarm, and get under their desks until the initial quake ends. Getting detention is better than being crushed in a collapsing stairwell because some idiot pulled a fire alarm.

The immediate after-effects of a major quake would be as follows:

- Loss of utilities: water, sanitation, electricity, possibly telephone;

- Stranded and separated family members stuck at work, school, etc.;

- People buried or pinned in rubble;

- People with concussions, fractures and crush injuries;

- People beginning to experience hypothermia;

- People in respiratory distress from smoke and dust.

In this scenario, you and your loved ones would likely not be together, and you might not be able to reach them, either physically or by phone. Furthermore, unless you happened to be near wherever your emergency supplies are stored (and they weren’t buried under a collapsed building), you would only have access to whatever you had on or near your person.

Now, if you survive the initial quake, and you’re not trapped, you need to get outside before the aftershocks hit, preferably to some open area with solid ground where nothing is going to collapse on you, and you’re not going to fall into a fissure. To me, that sounds like the middle of the nearest parking lot.

Of course, it goes without saying that any type of medical/emergency response knowledge is wonderful, if you have it. One doctor in Christchurch saved a pinned man by performing a double leg amputation, using only a Leatherman and a hacksaw.

The training question has been well covered by other writers, so I’m not going to get into all the many things we should all learn how to do, except to mention that, in Christchurch, 14 people escaped from a high rise building with a collapsed stairwell because one of their number happened to be a mountaineer, and happened to have enough rope on hand to belay his compatriots the 60 feet to safety. Belaying isn’t usually high on the list of survival skills, but you can learn it in a day, and if you have the opportunity to take a class at your local park or climbing gym, it’s definitely worth it.

Once the earth stops moving, the aftermath begins. Almost immediately, burglary and looting will begin, including by criminals posing as government employees. As if this weren’t bad enough, the following 24-48 hours will add the following risks:

- Dehydration from lack of potable water;

- Onset of shock from injuries;

- Disease from spilled sewage, garbage, and flood water;

- Infection of wounds;

- Premature births and heart attacks;

- Hypothermia/frostbite;

- Overloaded or triaged police, fire and medical services.

During the initial 24-48 hour window, your first priority must be to secure your own safety. If you’re bleeding heavily or otherwise walking wounded, you’re not going to be much help to anyone else. Crush injuries are particularly dangerous, because they can easily become infected, shattered bones need surgery to repair, and bone fragments can migrate to other parts of the body and cause additional problems. If you’re seriously hurt, you need to realize that this is the kind of situation in which you might actually die. Don’t be a hero; you need to drag yourself to the nearest hospital. Even though you might be standing outside for several hours, it’s your best chance at surviving.

If you’ve patched yourself up, and you have a family, your next priority must be to locate and rendezvous with your loved ones. Based on the geography, distance, road condition, and people involved, this may mean walking (running) or using a bicycle to get where you’re going. Having an established meeting place already decided on is a good idea. If you have young children, you may want to plan on meeting your spouse at the kids’ school, since that’s where you’ll both probably head anyway!

Speaking of spouses, I think it’s important to make preparedness accessible for family members who may not be particularly interested in it. Packing a small emergency kit for a spouse and putting it in the trunk of his or her car “just in case” is neither invasive nor pushy, and if you are separated from each other by a disaster, it will give you piece of mind to know that they won’t be completely unprepared.

At this point, I’d like to introduce my general approach to kit preparation, which is threefold: first, I apply the Pareto Principle; second, I categorize supplies by priority level rather than by type; and  third, I minimize redundancy.

1) The Pareto Principle. Also known as the “80-20 Rule,” this pops up in all sorts of unlikely places. In 1906, the Italian economist Vilfredo Pareto observed that 80% of the land in Italy was owned by 20% of the population, and that 20% of the pea pods in his garden contained 80% of the peas. Since that time, the ratio of 80:20 has been applied to every imaginable relationship, with varying degrees of success.

In my case, I estimate that approximately 80% of the time, I only use 20% of my gear. To put it another way, the classical approach to “being prepared” is to prepare for every possible situation; my approach is to prepare for only the most probable situations, with the understanding that what I lose in potential preparedness, I gain in mobility and compliance. I simply cannot carry around everything I would need to survive every conceivable disaster. I can, however, keep a small Ziploc bag of high-priority supplies in my satchel, along with my papers, laptop, etc. The farther afield I’m going, the more supplies I carry, but in every circumstance, I’m taking only what I am most likely to need.

2) Grouping Supplies By Priority Invariably, emergency supply lists are broken down into categories like “medical” and “tools.” That’s fine for shopping, but it doesn’t work so well when it comes time to actually pack things into kits to carry around.

So, I’ve made lists that I call: Level 1 (everyday carry); Level 2 (day trips); Level 3 (overnight trips); Level 4 (camping/established emergencies); and Level 5 (home storage - the only level at which I separate the list into “medical supplies” and “non-medical supplies” for the sake of clarity).

As an example, the Level 1 kit lives in the bag that I usually carry with me wherever I go. Level 2 stays in the trunk of my car. If I’m taking the kids to the park, I’ll throw the Level 1 bag and the Level 2 bag into a backpack and carry it around with me. If I have to stay overnight somewhere for work, I’ll put the Level 1, 2 and 3 bags into a duffel bag, and I’m almost entirely packed. If we’re going camping, I pack the 1, 2, 3 bags into a large backpack, along with the Level 4 supplies. If we were to G.O.O.D., then the Level 4 would be my bugout bag, and I would load as much of Level 5 into my car as I could.

3) Redundancy is great in theory, and a real hassle in practice. Not only is it expensive to have duplicate sets of gear in various places, it’s difficult to keep track of what’s where, what’s missing, etc. Therefore, my kits are modular: Level 2 does not include anything that is in Level 1, Level 3 does not include anything that is in Level 2, and so on. Is it a little scary to have all my eggs in one basket? Yes, but it’s a calculated risk. I’d rather know exactly what I have and where it is than have a disorganized mess with too much of what I don’t need, and not enough of what I do. (I speak from experience here: when I went to organize my existing kits into my new system, I discovered that I had 30 reusable Ace bandages and 1 bottle of water. Less than optimal.) Of course, I do have duplicate items, I just put them in separate kits. So, for example, my wife drives around with a small bag in the trunk of her car that contains a Level 1 and Level 2 kit, and my sister-in-law has a Level 1 kit in her backpack along with her college textbooks. That way, if my family is separated when something bad happens (say, my sister-in-law is watching the kids while I’m out of town for work and my wife is out with a friend), we all have the items we’re most likely to need, right then and there.

Without further ado, here are my lists, as they stand now.  Please note that these lists are in a continual state of flux. I add, subtract and move items around as I gain experience and knowledge, so by no means should these be taken as anything other than a point of departure for your own efforts. I hope that they will be useful to you, whether you live in an earthquake zone or not, and I welcome any feedback or constructive criticism.

Modular Packing Lists

Based on the premise that 80% of the time, you only use 20% of the gear you’re carrying, I’ve come up with these lists for modular groups of supplies. This list bears little resemblance to typical “emergency” lists, because those lists try to take into account every possible situation, and are generally sorted by type (e.g. clothes, toiletries). These only take into account the most probable situations, and are sorted by levels of portability/importance. Furthermore, I think it’s important to use the same kind of stuff during emergencies as you do normally, so that everything is familiar to you.

Level 1 – Daily carry. These items (aside from the water bottle) can easily fit into a ziploc bag, which can be transferred from briefcase to backpack to coat pocket, as the situation warrants. This will suffice for most issues that arise in day-to-day situations. If traveling by commercial aircraft, omit “contraband” items, such as the pocket knife. Otherwise, this small packet will give you everything you’re likely to need to get through a situation that leaves you moderately (but not severely) cold, wet, dark, hungry, thirsty or hurt. Bottle of water Snack bar/granola/beef jerky Flashlight (LED bulb) Pocket knife/multi-tool Cash (approx. $100) Band-aids, assorted sizes Antibacterial ointment (Polysporin, Bacitracin, etc.) (small tube) Athletic (“Ace”) bandage with velcro closure Hand sanitizer (small bottle) Wet wipes (individually wrapped in plastic, not paper) Napkins/paper towels Matches (small box in a ziploc bag) Folding poncho Emergency “Space” blanket Dust mask Deodorant (Why is this on my Level 1 list? Because realizing you forgot to put deodorant on definitely could constitute an emergency.) Individual needs: e.g. sanitary products, prescription medicine

Level 2 – Day pack These items can easily fit into a light backpack. This will suffice for trips to the beach, day hikes and hunting trips, etc., as well as for urban/suburban stranded-overnight scenarios. If you are responsible for others (e.g. children), adjust accordingly. Additional Water Sunscreen (small tube of SPF 30 or higher.) Bug spray (small, non-aerosol container.) Calendula ointment (for stings or burns) Light sticks More snacks Dry pair of socks and underwear in ziploc bag Hat Camp Towel Rolled gauze Cohesive bandage Athletic tape Israeli Battle Dressing (“IBD”) Vinyl “exam” gloves Small bag for trash

Level 2B – Car Kit If traveling by car, you may wish to pack the following items: Jumper cables Can of “Fix-A-Flat” Extra pair of work boots/hiking shoes Cooler containing: ? 5-10 lbs of ice ? Bottled water ? Bottled/boxed juice ? Fruit (berries, sliced apples, etc.) ? Hard-boiled eggs ? Sandwiches

Level 3 – Overnight Travel Aside from the clothes, these items can easily fit into a ziploc bag or standard “toiletry” kit bag. Toothbrush Toothpaste (travel-size tube) Mouthwash (travel-size bottle) Dental Floss (small canister) Soap (Ivory, 1 bar) Shampoo (travel-sized bottle) Razor with extra blade Talcum powder (small bottle) Complete change of clothes (1 set) ? Underpants ? Socks ? T-shirt ? Long-sleeved pullover ? Hooded sweatshirt ? Jeans Sleep clothes (1 set)

Level 4 – Camping/Short-Term Emergency These items can be packed into a plastic tub or large backpack. Again, items are not duplicated, so you would also pack the Levels 1, 2 and 3 kits. Tent (ultralight, or “pup” style) Sleeping bag or blanket Toilet paper (biodegradable) Mess kit Canned/dried food Water Folding “Sterno”-style camp stove with fuel Disposable plates, cups, cutlery Roll of paper towels Handgun with ammunition Duct tape Hatchet Large trash bags

In addition to portable kits, it is advisable to prepare two larger kits for storage at home.

Level 5A. Medical Supplies Lots of band-aids Steri-strips Hydrogen Peroxide Antibacterial ointment (Neosporin, etc.) Alcohol swabs Disposable vinyl “exam” gloves (several boxes) Extra-strength Advil/Tylenol Children’s Advil/Tylenol Antibiotics Gauze (lots) Alcohol Wipes Cohesive bandages Israeli Battle Dressings (IBD compression bandages) Medical Manual (Merck Manual or equivalent)

Level 5B. Non-Medical Supplies Cash money Canned food/emergency rations Candles & Matches in waterproof bag Heavy duty flashlights with extra batteries Gasoline (approx. 5 gallons) Laundry soap More Water More bar soap More wet wipes More light sticks More trash bags Portable toilet (toilet-seat-bucket lid, etc.) More biodegradable toilet paper Basic hand tools Folding shovel Chainsaw Shotgun with ammunition Handgun with ammunition Rifle with ammunition Passport Gold/silver bullion coins

Here on the Oregon coast we have included precautions for a Tsunami in our emergency preparations.  This last spring while on vacation on the north shore of Oahu we experienced some valuable lessons when the Tsunami alert was raised after the earthquake in Chile.  This experience has helped us and hopefully will provide food for thought for others.

We have family living on the north shore of Oahu, in Laie that we were staying with during our trip.  About 4am in the morning as I was sleeping on the porch, a woman knocked on the door to inform the family of the earthquake in Chile, and that a Tsunami warning had been issued for the islands.  Very few details were known, and no information on when the wave might arrive.  No alarms in the town were sounded, and most of the community didn’t hear any word.  Most communication was received word-of-mouth, since very few were listening to the media that morning.  Our family was notified by a friend from church whose husband worked for BYU-Hawaii. 

At first, the family was a little confused as to what to do.  Food and water were on hand, but no one knew if we would be allowed to drive to higher ground, or if we would be required to walk.  Our decision on what to take with us would have changed dramatically if we had to walk and carry our gear.  Higher ground was about 400 yards away, but with the jungle and farmland around, most of Laie would be concentrated a few areas.  The family’s original plan was to drive ~10 miles to a camp they frequented, so we quickly woke up their 5 children, loaded food and water into the family’s truck, made contact with friends and the 6 college students living in the first floor of the house, and were ready to leave in 20 minutes.  Having 4 adults to help with the readiness made a big difference.  Not being familiar with where the family stored their supplies made it a bit more difficult, but since my wife and I were visiting, we were already packed with our necessities.  We simply had to refill our water bottles, double-check our gear, and help with the little ones.

Now we were ready to leave by 4:30 a.m., however we also took the time to contact reliable sources of information to confirm details.  We didn’t want to run off in the dark without more of the story.  Internet and all communications were available, so we quickly got enough information to feel safe about staying home until about 7:30 a.m., when it would be light out.  This gave us a lot of time to review our status, notify friends and neighbors, and also to let family back home on the mainland that we were okay and that we had a plan.  We gave them all details to our plans.

By 7:30, there was more activity in the neighborhood, and most everyone in the community was notified.  Official media reports were publishing details, and at 8 a.m. the first community alarm went off.  We really appreciated the fact that personal networks notified us 4 hours before the first ‘public’ warning came in a form that everyone would know of.

Finally, we were off to higher ground.  The morning was beautiful and clear – already warm for us mainlanders.  As we were leaving town, we noticed a few police cars making patrols, and talked with neighbors who had already seen and reported some looting and mischief.  The roads were not busy, and many of the locals had reported to others that they were staying home to stick it out.  They didn’t want to leave their home.  A long line of about 12-15 cars had formed at the only local gas station.  There was no real indicator that anything abnormal was going on in paradise.  We were very glad we had more than half a tank of gas and that we wouldn’t be traveling far.

The main highways around Oahu all run on the periphery of the island.  Beautiful to drive along the water’s edge, but as we made our way to higher ground, we realized if a wave does much damage to that same waterfront highway, getting home again might be impossible for days.  Before we went far from home, we pulled over, thought it through, and decided on a new location – less than a mile from home.  This was one of the most important learning’s from our experience.  Bugging out must take into account getting back.

Our new location took us to a large ranch owned by a local church that the family was familiar with.  The grounds keeper had already opened up the property for the community to gather in and we easily found a good spot in an open field with 80 other vehicles and families.  It was a big, open field safely in the hills with a lookout to the ocean about 500 yards up the hill.

After parking we setup camp.  Our three most valuable items (besides food and water) were our canopy, lawn chairs, and board games.  The tropical weather quickly turned hot, and without the shade of the canopy, we would have been miserable.  Others without cover ducked under shade trees, or joined the bigger groups who were assembling large party canopies.  Even with shade, we went through water quickly.  The open field was great for playing catch and wandering around.  All the teenagers were busy texting and calling friends – without the phones the boredom would have been difficult.

First real emergency – the teenagers needed a bathroom.  For the boys, this wasn’t an issue with all of the trees and brush around the field.  For the women, it was a bigger concern.  The four of them went into the woods together and eventually found a spot secluded “enough” to be comfortable.  They reported many small groups and individuals roaming the trees looking for that elusive seclusion.  A small popup latrine or some other facility to provide privacy would have been very valuable to the group.  The hand wipes became very valuable at this point too – and are worth mentioning. After about an hour, most of the men were either asleep or were antsy to go back into town to get more stuff.  It was about 11am at this point, and all media reports were that we should expect the wave(s) to hit at 1pm.  We felt we had enough time and the risk was low that we decided to give it a go.  We took the pickup the three miles back into Laie, and loaded up lawn chairs, a full-size propane barbeque grill, and lots of food for dinner out of the freezer.  Extra water and toilet paper were also gathered.  It was interesting that more police patrol cars were in the neighborhoods, and many residents slowly going about their day.  We made several stops to pickup stuff for friends and neighbors, and to make sure surf boards, bikes, and other stuff was up on the second floor porches of all the homes we visited.  We were back on higher ground with the grill hot by 11:30 a.m.

The grill was a big hit, but quickly brought dozens of hungry kids and teenagers around, so we turned it off before cooking any food to avoid any disturbances.  We didn’t have nearly enough food to go around, and in the local culture it would have been rude not to invite even casual acquaintances to eat with us.  So we stuck to snacks we had on hand, and loaned out the grill to another large family group to use.

Here’s an interesting side-story regarding first aid.  About a dozen of the local boys, about 9 years old, spent their free-time catching scorpions.  They showed us a small water bottle with three of them inside.  A great diversion for the boys, but my thought was: “what if one of the boys was stung?”  The parents would have their hands full with a miserable child and little way to assist.  Having a remedy for bee or scorpion stings would be a valuable ingredient in an emergency first aid pack. Finally, as 1 pm came closer everyone made their way to a lookout point to watch for the wave.  It was hot now, and water was soon used up.  At least 150 of us sat around a single radio waiting for updates and passing the latest rumors.  The media had less information than many of the locals with families on the Big Island, where the wave was to hit first.  The public media was not much help.  Nothing was seen of note down in the ocean, other than a couple folks out surfing near Turtle Cove. 

Finally, when 1:30 p.m. came without any noticeable change in the seas, the media reported that 2 p.m. was the likely time.  Hilo on the Big Island hadn’t seen any significant wave show up, and many folks around us were ready to head home.

The men of our group loaded up the heavy gear and headed down to home by 1:45 p.m.  After unloading, about 2 p.m. the police gave us an “all clear” and we let the women know to bring the children down [from the heights]. We were all very glad that nothing significant had happened.  We had a great day in the hills with very little inconvenience.  The barbeque was the most disappointing part of the day.  The women had planned to spend the day at the Aloha Stadium Market and were disappointed they missed out on that, but we husbands figured the tsunami saved us several hundreds of dollars in canceling that plan.  We all learned some valuable lessons – including the younger children, and it was a great opportunity to better prepare for the next event.  In terms of gear, the only additional items we would recommend for a short “bug out” like this would be handheld [MURS or GMRS] radios, some form of privacy (tent, tarp, etc), and more to read. 

Hi James,
Regarding River's advice about strapping a water heater: He is correct about the value of doing this, but I would advise anyone considering this task to do more than just nail a strip of plumbers tape around the water heater.

As a 40 year native of Southern California (yes, I am looking to escape) I am better acquainted than I would care to be with earthquakes and what they do. I am also a general contractor. California's requirements for bracing water heaters can be annoying, but they do exist for good reason. Anyone looking at bracing their water heater should at least take a look at what California requires. A web search will turn up a number of methods. A good page is provided by the State of California.

Note that a water heater needs to be held from moving both forward and backward. Water heater manufacturers generally specify a minimum distance to the wall. In my experience water heaters tend to be anywhere from 3" to 6" away from the wall. That's a lot of room to rock. A nailed-in strap will be pulled out of that wall within three or four rocks of the hot water heater tank.

At the very least, brace the back and use lag bolts for that strap.

Consider purchasing a California earthquake strap kit. They are produced in large quantities and generally cost less than $20. They come with directions and lag bolts. They come with enough strapping to run full loops around the water heater and instructions for adding bracing in the back.

Just my experienced two cents. - Tom in Southern California

James:
Thank you for your interesting and informative web site and mission.  Just a few short thoughts on earthquake hazard, risk, and mitigation, since it's a pet interest of mine for some time and I come at it from a slightly different background than some.  I'm a southeastern US resident in an area about 300 miles give or take from the New Madrid fault zone.  My community is actually located in the second most seismically active area east of the Rockies, so I do have some personal investment in the topic.  Additionally, I have more than 20 years' experience in disaster services, so i've got both some practical experience and I've had some time to study and think about stuff.

Hazard is the potential for physical activity that can cause damage to structures and inhabitants.  Risk is the human behavior(s) that leads to greater or lesser damages given the particular hazard(s) discussed.  Mitigation is the action(s) taken to reduce risk and damage. 

The greatest danger for many families living in earthquake country is right in their own homes.  Gas-fueled water heaters are fairly unstable when lifted and pushed sideways, and since you already have a natural gas line, usually copper in the Central US, and a flame (pilot light), an unsecured gas water heater is like having your own family catastrophe waiting with your bath water.  Copper line breaks, uncontrolled gas bleeds out of the lines, and it ignites.  This was a problem in California and other western states in the past -- in areas that mostly require seismic shutoff valves today on natural gas lines entering occupied properties.  During, IIRC, the Loma Prieta earthquake, they discovered a few useful facts like this, including the follow-on treat that events that break gas lines also often break water lines, so you get a fire that you have little to no means to extinguish.  Turned out it was hard to open rolling sheet metal fire station doors too. 

Fortunately for those who don't live in places where building codes have caught up to physical realities as much as to political ones, it is simple and cheap to fix this potential catastrophe. Hardware stores sell, very inexpensively, "plumbing tape" or "hardware tape" that is basically thin, 1 inch or so wide strips of rolled sheet metal with holes every inch or so.  One simply takes this material, wraps it around their water heater at about 2/3 height of the heater, then nail it off securely to wall studs.   Shazam.  It won't fix all your problems, and there are lots of other topics we could discuss, but this is the first one I mention when I meet folks who live in or very near earthquake hazard zones.

This happens to be the bicentennial of the famous New Madrid series of quakes that caused 2 waterfalls on the Mississippi, church bells to ring in Boston, windows to rattle in D.C., and formed the largest land area lake in Tennessee by the Mississippi River basically flowing backwards for a while.  The eyewitness accounts are quite riveting.  The fact is that Eastern/Central US quakes cause shaking in a roughly 10 times larger area than in California simply due to the stiffer, older underlying rock.  Damages will likely be even greater geographically distributed because we have practically nothing in the built environment to protect people, and our people have no clue what to do to prepare or respond. 

With Best Regards, In Christ, - River S.

There are obvious reasons for prepping, floods, hurricanes, tsunamis, fires, civil unrest, financial collapse, or just the event of an intruder into your home. Prepping is just basic insurance and just like insurance you hope you never have to use it but, need it in case of a severe raining day. I’ve found that most people will not listen to you when you tell them they should prep, they usually look at you like your some insane person who listens to every conspiracy theory that comes by. These same people in an event will be over at your house.

 “Oh my! They are killing people and I don’t have a gun!” I heard this statement from the mouth of an avid and vocal anti-gunner just after he was watching Reginald Denny being dragged out of his truck and beaten during the Los Angeles riots of 1992. I offered to sell this gentleman a single shot .22 caliber rifle for $1,000 and ammo for $5 per round. All sporting goods stores quit selling ammo during the riots at law enforcement request. When times get tough, eyes open, opinions change and inflation kicks in.

The big one. Two years ago out here in California the USGS had a statewide earthquake drill for a magnitude 7.8 quake nicknamed The Shakeout. I worked as a Land Surveyor for 10 years and am really good at making maps. A few years ago I came across Geographic Informational Systems (GIS) and started learning it and actually improved my map making skills. A few of the folks involved in the Shakeout knew I enjoyed GIS and enlisted me into the drill for my GIS skill set. The original data from the USGS stated that we would have 30 feet of lateral movement and 10 feet vertical movement along the San Andreas Fault line. This data was later revised by USGS but, the Engineer involved in the drill and I went to work on this data. The greatest thing about GIS is that you can look at how events (like earthquakes) will affect systems geographically.

Let’s examine the path of the San Andreas Fault line, it runs from the Salton Sea just north of the Interstate 10 (I-10) freeway along the mountain range (and is the reason that mountain range is there) in an Northwest direction all the way up to Grapevine on the 5 freeway. This feature basically cuts off everything from Palm Springs to Northridge and everything west of there to the ocean from the rest of the world. A lateral movement bifurcates anything crossing the fault line and moves it 30 feet in opposite directions. Everything we depend on for modern living in Southern California crosses San Andreas including major electric transmission lines, water aqueducts, major gas transmission lines and many major freeways that supplies cross on a daily basis.

What happens to modern living when we lose our power? Most of Southern California energy is generated outside of Southern California. Your home wireless telephones quit working, your lights go out, your central air stops, your laptop works until your battery dies, traffic lights stop working, hospitals start using their generator backups, the water pumps that pump water to the water towers will stop working, the equipment at the sewage treatment plants stop working, refrigeration stops working, gas station pumps quit working and so do the cash registers.  This is just the power, gas lines and water aqueducts cross the fault too. This really means no water, no heat, no food, no medical, no sanitation and no transportation.

Bug Out? Sure, If you can. Did I mention the 10 foot vertical shift? This would place a 10 foot cliff along the fault line and the I-15 freeway, the 2 freeway, the I-14 freeway and the I-5 freeway all cross the fault line. These freeways are all the major corridors out of Southern California. At the I-5 freeway and the 210 freeway interchange the overpass failed in the Northridge quake of 1994 (magnitude 6.7) and the San Fernando quake of 1971 (magnitude 6.6). The freeways in Southern California are bad in rush hour or when it rains, imagine how bad it will be when everyone is trying to get out of town. I do not believe bugging out of Southern California will be possible. The transportation system will be in shambles. It would be impossible to evacuate Southern California. With the number of inhabitants and the freeway congestion on a good day this would be impossible.

Bugging In? How long can you last? Water supplies will soon stop. Human beings can live without water for three days. How much water do you have on hand? In Southern California our food is shipped in and distributed via several key distribution centers. With refrigeration out fruit, vegetables, eggs, milk, frozen dinners, etc. will not be available. With the roads out how much food will reach the grocery stores. With everyone in a panic how much food will be at the grocery store? Out of the folks who are not preppers how many will be on your doorstep? The people that live day to day with their supplies will be looking for more supplies and they will be desperate, their lives as well as yours will be on the line.

It is a pretty scary issue once you start diving into the details. Southern California will not be a pretty place to be, it will be a death trap.  Eyes need to be opened before an event not after when it is too late. Please preach to that family member or friend. Get them to do at least the bare minimum of prepping, at least to keep them off of your doorstep for a few days.

Hey Jim

It has been a while since I've written, but we still read you every day. Have a look at this site, with a map that show the recent Christchurch New Zealand earthquake and it aftershocks. It provides a very graphic 'time to relocate' signal for anybody with a little common sense.

Regards, - Joe Ordinary Voortrekker

James:
I just watched the video of the geysers in Kingfisher, Oklahoma. Just downright amazing what I saw. No, not the geysers ..... the people and what they said:
Newsgirl ...... "Something never seen here before and will never be seen again." ???
Lady on the street .... "I'm just concerned that it may pollute our water supply."
Newsgirl ... " State officials say that fast moving natural gas underground is forced into pushing upwards."
Newsgirl ..... "State officials are trying to determine what the source of the natural gas is."
Do any of these people have any clue what pre-earthquake symptoms are?
Apparently not or at least they're not bringing it to the attention of the public. Personally, If I saw this occurring around me, I would rapidly either leave immediately or become very uneasy about staying. Whew! Better there than here, huh?
A last comment. It was part of the seven states report. (on the Tennessee side) All seven states concurrently and independently ran reviews and investigations on the possibility of another occurrence of the great Memphis quake. Eventually, all the states found out that all of the other six states had performed essentially the same review. Amazingly all seven had essentially arrived at the same conclusion. If I lived in Kingfisher, Oklahoma, I'd be leaving con mucho rapidemente.
Regards, - The Army Aviator

Mr. Rawles:
You recently advised your preference for masonry, adobe, and rammed-earth retreat construction for the obvious ballistic protection and I agree. But here in northern Idaho and Montana we have recently experienced increased earthquake activity and you might caution your loyal readership to visit the excellent USGS website http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/states/idaho/hazards.html which provides detailed USA earthquake zone maps. Three million folks in Pakistan are now presently homeless because their bullet-proof houses crumbled after the earthquake. Before anyone builds their retreat they should also learn about California earthquake building codes and how to add inexpensive metal strapping to wood construction so their retreat does not also become their coffin in the event of an earthquake. Simpson Strongtie Corp's website http://www.strongtie.com/products/strongwall/index.html?source=topnav is the industry standard for hardening construction. Regards, - "Book"

JWR Replies: In that impoverished part of the world they are famous for building masonry buildings with reinforcement, since re-bar is expensive--at least by Third World standards. But I definitely agree that regardless of how much re-bar you might add, a wood frame house is much more suitable than masonry in earthquake country.

I just thought I'd share some notes on my efforts. In the suburban setting I currently live in, I feel that my biggest day-to-day threat would be from a major earthquake hitting nearby. I would view this as a short-term emergency (2 weeks, perhaps) with somewhat localized impact. While there could be mass looting and rioting, I don't feel it's that likely in my particular neighborhood, although I do maintain a stock of arms, a bullhorn, spotlight, extra batteries, etc.
My current target is to have a 1-month supply of food items, with a mix of ready-to-eat canned foods and bulk rice and beans. I have purchased three 20 pound propane tanks for the barbeque, and an adapter hose so that I can run my small coleman stove off them, in addition to stocking extra 1 pound cylinders for camping. I also purchased a 6 gallon turkey fryer set. I'm already into camping and Ham radio, so I'm mostly covered on shelter and communications.
My plan for an earthquake or other natural disaster is to help myself, then my elderly immediate neighbors, collaborate with a couple of other neighbors and possibly set up to distribute meals to the surrounding survivors.
The turkey cooker, with rice, beans and assorted canned goods to throw in could allow me to supply several daily "gumbo" type hot meals to 20+ people. I think by design it would use gas more efficiently than trying to cook on the barbeque.
I consume mostly fresh foods, so my plan is to every one to two years simply give my canned stuff to the food bank or Boy Scout canned food drive and buy more.
All of this, (with the exception of guns, ham radio gear and other valuables) together with approximately 70 gallons of water, is housed outside in a shed, which should offer some protection from my house falling on it and spoiling or making it inaccessible.  [Note from JWR: Make sure that your shed stays cool.  Heat kills the nutritive value of canned food quickly!]
Some quick notes on "store bought" preparations:
- A case of Top Ramen just fits inside a 5 gallon bucket
- A 25 pound sack of rice from the asian store fits with a little room left over.
- The medium-size Rubbermaid bins can hold a flat of bottled water, plus about 2/3 lighter stuff on top (gotta be able to lift it).
- Get some #10 cans, even if you don't think you'll use them. A Hobo stove constructed from one will allow you to cook over salvaged bits of wood and wreckage. Make sure to have a hacksaw, pliers and can opener on hand [to make a hobo stove.]
- If you stock bleach for disinfecting water, take a Sharpie marker and write the formula (drops per gallon, teaspoons per 5 gallons, etc.) on
the bottle. This way, there will be no question when you need it.

I'm sure there are things that I'm missing, but at least it's a start. - John in California